Appendix 1. Elections included in analyses Poland 2005 Ireland 2007 The Netherlands 2010 Estonia 2011 The Netherlands 2002 Norway 2001 Norway 2005 Finland 2011 Sweden 2006 The Netherlands 2006 Sweden 2002 Iceland 2009 Norway 2009 Germany 2005 Iceland 2003 Switzerland 2007 Denmark 2001 Germany 2009 New Zealand 2008 Canada 2008 Finland 2007 Denmark 2007 Czech Republic 2002 Germany 2002 Belgium 2003 (French) Finland 2003 Portugal 2005 Switzerland 2003 Australia 2004 Great Britain 2005 Greece 2009 Portugal 2002 Belgium 2003 (Dutch) Spain 2004 Turkey 2011 Uruguay 2009 Total Source: CSES Module 2 and Module 3. Stable 32.29% 33.09% 55.32% 56.83% 58.50% 60.44% 60.92% 61.25% 62.23% 64.04% 64.15% 64.63% 66.36% 67.61% 67.79% 68.81% 69.33% 70.62% 70.77% 71.63% 71.65% 71.83% 72.81% 73.51% 73.62% 74.04% 74.97% 75.44% 76.08% 77.99% 78.21% 78.35% 82.55% 86.99% 87.42% 88.83% 68.27% Switch parties 37.33% 56.13% 40.70% 34.88% 40.40% 27.56% 32.90% 32.39% 33.52% 34.12% 30.77% 32.98% 27.44% 29.04% 29.99% 21.36% 28.17% 21.97% 27.51% 23.40% 21.41% 27.16% 19.39% 22.57% 26.38% 18.68% 17.52% 17.94% 22.54% 11.62% 15.08% 12.43% 17.45% 8.47% 12.58% 11.17% 26.34% Abstain 30.38% 10.78% 3.98% 8.29% 1.10% 12.00% 6.18% 6.36% 4.25% 1.84% 5.08% 2.39% 6.20% 3.35% 2.22% 9.83% 2.50% 7.41% 1.72% 4.96% 6.94% 1.00% 7.80% 3.92% 0.00% 7.28% 7.51% 6.62% 1.37% 10.39% 6.70% 9.22% 0.00% 4.54% 0.00% 0.00% 5.39% N 576 408 1,607 410 906 1,600 1,538 849 871 1,738 728 752 1,436 1,374 857 1,231 1,601 1,188 756 1,410 850 1,097 423 1,608 345 728 1,478 680 1,455 568 537 716 275 661 604 707 34,568 Appendix 2a . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis Election CSES Module 2 Included in parsimonious model? No Included in model with controls? No ALBANIA (2005) AUSTRALIA (2004) BELGIUM (2003) *Belgium Dutch *Belgium French BRAZIL (2002) BULGARIA (2001) 2 2 Yes Yes Yes No 2 2 No No No No CANADA (2004) 2 No No CHILE (2005) TAIWAN (2001) TAIWAN (2004) CZECH REPUBLIC (2002) DENMARK (2001) FINLAND (2003) FRANCE (2002) GERMANY (2002) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 No No No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No No Yes No Yes No Yes Reason for not including Problems with coding of volatility: 16 parties, most changing labels, splitting, merging from one election to another. Inconsistent party labels in election report Electoral Studies versus codebook CSES. Furthermore, according to Freedom House, the 2005 elections only partly met international standards (FHI score 3.0) No left-right placement of parties. Consequently polarization could not be calculated. No recall question Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Only 259 respondents recall previous vote choice (versus 1347 respondents indicating current choice) No recall question No recall question No parliamentary election No knowledge question No parliamentary election Appendix 2b . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued) Election CSES Module 2 Included in parsimonious model? No Included in model with controls? No HONG KONG (2004) HUNGARY (2002) 2 No No ICELAND (2003) IRELAND (2002) 2 2 Yes No No No ISRAEL (2003) 2 No No ITALY (2006) 2 No No JAPAN (2004) KOREA (2004) KYRGYZSTAN (2005) MEXICO (2003) NETHERLANDS (2002) 2 2 2 2 2 No No No No Yes No No No No Yes NEW ZEALAND (2002) NORWAY (2001) PERU (2006) PHILIPPINES (2004) 2 2 2 2 Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No Reason for not including Could according to Freedom House only be considered partly free (score 4.0). Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No knowledge question Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No question ‘did R cast ballot in previous election?’ No lower house vote choice No recall question No parliamentary election No recall question No ‘Who people vote for makes a difference’ No recall question For over 50% of recalled voting behavior “Candidates with no information about party affiliation” Appendix 2c . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued) Election CSES Module 2 Included in parsimonious model? No Included in model with controls? No POLAND (2001) PORTUGAL (2002) PORTUGAL (2005) ROMANIA (2004) 2 2 2 Yes Yes No Yes Yes No RUSSIA (2004) SLOVENIA (2004) SPAIN (2004) SWEDEN (2002) SWITZERLAND (2003) GREAT BRITAIN (2005) UNITED STATES (2004) AUSTRALIA (2007) AUSTRIA (2008) BRAZIL (2006) BRAZIL (2010) BELARUS (2008) CANADA (2008) CHILE (2009) CROATIA (2007) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No No No Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No No No Yes No No CZECH REPUBLIC (2006) 3 No No Reason for not including Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No parliamentary election No recall question No recall question No recall question No recall question No recall question No recall question Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Appendix 2d . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued) Election CSES Module 3 Included in parsimonious model? No Included in model with controls? No CZECH REPUBLIC (2010) DENMARK (2007) ESTONIA (2011) FINLAND (2007) FINLAND (2011) FRANCE (2007) GERMANY (2005) 3 3 3 3 3 3 Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes GERMANY (2009) GREECE (2009) HONG KONG (2008) 3 3 3 Yes Yes No Yes Yes No ICELAND (2007) ICELAND (2009) IRELAND (2007) 3 3 3 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ISRAEL (2006) 3 No No JAPAN (2007) LATVIA (2010) MEXICO (2006) 3 3 3 No No No No No No Reason for not including Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No recall question No ‘Who people vote for makes a difference’ No party votes, but candidate mentions. Only for a limited number of candidates, party affiliations could be assigned by the CSES-team. Only partly free according to FHI (3.5) No ‘Who is in power makes a difference’ Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No lower house vote choice No ‘Do you feel closer to one party’ Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Appendix 2e . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued) Election CSES Module 3 Included in parsimonious model? No Included in model with controls? No MEXICO (2009) NETHERLANDS (2006) NETHERLANDS (2010) NEW ZEALAND (2008) NORWAY (2005) NORWAY (2009) PERU (2011) PHILIPPINES (2010) POLAND (2005) POLAND (2007) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes No PORTUGAL (2009) ROMANIA (2009) SLOVAKIA (2010) 3 3 3 No No No No No No SLOVENIA (2008) 3 No No SPAIN (2008) SWEDEN (2006) SOUTH AFRICA (2009) SOUTH KOREA (2008) 3 3 3 3 No Yes No No No Yes No No Reason for not including Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No recall question No recall question Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No recall question No parliamentary election Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) Large inconsistencies between recalled voting behavior and election result (see Appendix 3) No recall question No recall question No recall question Appendix 2f . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued) Election CSES Module 3 Included in parsimonious model? Yes Included in model with controls? Yes SWITZERLAND (2007) TAIWAN (2008) THAILAND (2007) 3 3 No No No No TURKEY (2011) UNITED STATES (2008) URUGUAY (2009) 3 3 3 Yes No Yes Yes No No Reason for not including No ‘Who is in power makes a difference’ No parliamentary election Military coup in between 2007 and previous (2006) elections – TRT party banned. Considered not free according to FHI (5.5) No recall question No knowledge question Appendix 3. Party system changes The reference brackets refers to the source(s) where the election report can be found. ES stands for the journal Electoral Studies, EJPR for European Journal of Political Research and WEP for West European Politics. Australia 2004 (ES: Vol. 24 (3), pp. 545–551) The coalition between Liberal and National might make some voters switch their first choice on the ballot purely out of strategic reasons if the chance of winning has drastically changed in a constituency, but we doubt this will happen more than on a very rare occasion. Belgium 2003 (ES: Vol. 23, 3, pp. 566–571) On the Flemish side, the Flemish nationalist Volksunie (People’s Union) split into two factions: the Nieuwe Vlaamse Alliantie (New Flemish Alliance, N-VA), a re-founded Flemish nationalist party, and SPIRIT, a group of progressive Flemish nationalists. Voters coming from Volksunie going either to NV-A or Spirit are not considered switchers. Canada 2008 (ES: Vol. 28(2), pp. 326-329) No significant in the party system. Czech Republic 2002 (ES: Vol. 22(4), pp. 772-778) Before the 1998 local and Senate elections, discontent with the opposition agreement led to the formation of the so-called Quad Coalition of four smaller parties: the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), the Freedom Union (US), the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), and Democratic Union (DEU). The Quads split again at the beginning of 2002. The ODA left the Quads. Just before the ODA departed, the US and DEU merged, so the Quad Coalition then had only two parties and was renamed simply the Coalition. Voters coming from the original 1998 ‘Quad’ that vote for one of the resulting parties that split from the Quad or the Coalition that is the remainder of the Quad are non-switchers. Denmark 2001 (ES: Vol 22, pp. 153-193) No significant changes in the party system. Denmark 2007 (EJPR: Vol. 47, pp. 952-961) A new party (New Alliance) was founded by a number of MP’s from existing parties, but since the original parties still run separately we consider this not to be a party connected to the previous ones. People voting for New Alliance are coded as switchers. Estonia 2011 There was no entry yet in ES or EJPR for this election, but the OECD election reporti does not mention any major changes in the party system. Finland 2003 (ES: Vol. 23(3), pp. 557–565) No significant changes in the party system. Finland 2007 (ES: Vol. 26(4), pp. 797–803) No significant changes in the party system. Finland 2011 (ES: Vol 31(1), pp. 234-238) No significant changes in the party system. Germany 2002 (ES: Vol. 23(1), pp. 143–149) No significant changes in the party system. Germany 2005 (ES: Vol. 26(1), pp. 223-227) No significant changes in the party system. Germany 2009 (ES: Vol. 29(2), pp. 289-292) No significant changes in the party system. Great Britain 2005 (ES: Vol. 25(4), pp. 814-820) No significant changes in the party system. Greece 2009 (ES: Vol. 29(2), pp. 293–296) No significant changes in the party system. Iceland 2003 (EJPR: Vol 43, pp. 1024-2019) No significant changes in the party system. Iceland 2009 (ES: Vol. 29(3), pp. 523-526) The Icelandic movement became a part of the Social Democratic Alliance for the 2009 election, so voters for Icelandic movement going to SDA are non-switchers. Ireland 2007 (ES: Vol. 27(1), pp. 151-154) No significant changes in the party system. New Zealand 2008 (ES: Vol. 28(3), pp. 507-510) No significant changes in the party system. Norway 2001 (ES: Vol. 22(1), pp. 179-185) No significant changes in the party system. Norway 2005 (ES: Vol. 26, 1, pp. 219–223) Although parties ran as possible future coalition-blocks both on left and right, all parties kept running separately in the election. Norway 2009 (WEP, Vol 33 (4), pp. 904-912) No significant changes in the party system. Poland 2005 (EJPR, Vol 45, pp. 1231-1246) The Democratic Party is considered a successor party of the Freedom Union. The Polish SocialDemocracy party can furthermore split from the SLD, voters voting for the Polish Social-Democracy Party in 2005 but previously choosing SLD are therefore considered stable. Portugal 2002 (EJPR: Vol. 43, pp. 1058-1066) No significant changes in the party system. Portugal 2005 (ES: Vol. 26(2), pp. 512-516) No significant changes in the party system. Spain 2004 (ES: Vol. 24(1), pp. 149-156) No significant changes in the party system. Sweden 2002 (ES: Vol. 22( 4), pp. 778-784) No significant changes in the party system. Sweden 2006 (ES: Vol. 26(4), pp. 820-823) No significant changes in the party system. Switzerland 2003 (ES: Vol. 24(1), pp. 123-129) No significant changes in the party system. Switzerland 2007 (ES: Vol. 27(4), pp. 748-751) No significant changes in the party system. The Netherlands 2002 (ES: Vol. 23(3), pp. 551-557) List Pim Fortuyn (LPF) and Livable Netherlands (LN) can be considered genuinely new parties. Voters prefering one of these parties in 2002 are considered switchers. The Netherlands 2006 (ES: Vol. 26(4), pp. 832-837) No significant changes in the party system. The Netherlands 2010 (ES: Vol. 30(3), pp. 577-580) TON (Proud of the Netherlands), led by Rita Verdonck is a split from VVD (Peoples Party for Freedom and Democracy). Verdonck was formerly a member of VVD, but she was expelled from the party after losing the race for the leadership of the party against Mark Rutte. Turkey 2011 (South European Society and Politics: Vol. 17(2), pp. 329-346. No significant changes in the party system. Uruguay 2009 (ES: Vol. 29, pp. 171-195). No significant changes in the party system Appendix 4. Validity of reported and recalled vote choice questions A. Overview of error by election and party CSES – MODULE 2 Australia 2004 election - Recall of 2001 election Party Sample 2001 recall - Liberal Party of Australia 46.9% - National Party of Australia 3.6% - Australian Labor Party 36.7% - Australian Greens 5.6% - Australian Democrats 3.0% - One Nation 1.8% - Family First Official 2001 result 37.1% 8.7% 37.8% 5.0% 5.4% 4.3% Sample 2004 report 46.2% 4.5% 36.7% 8.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% Official 2004 result 40.5% 5.9% 37.6% 7.2% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% Official 1999 result 14.3% Sample 2003 report 15.3% Official 2003 result 15.4% 9.55% 15.5% 14.91% 14.1% 13.2% 13.3% 9.9% 7.0% 7.0% 2.8% 2.4% 11.6% 3.1% 2.5% 10.2% 10.1% 16.1% 12.8% 13.0% 11.4% 5.9% 8.2% 5.5% 7.4% 1.5% 5.6% 5.4% 0.7% - 3.1% 2.0% - Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for official results Belgium 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 recall -Flemish Liberals and 13.6% Democrats -Flemish Socialist 11.58% Party/Socialist Party differentSocial Liberal Party -Flemish Christian Peoples 17.5% Party/Christian Democrats & Flemish -Flemish Block 5.4% -New Flemish Alliance -Live Differently (Flemish5.1% speaking Ecologists) -Francophone Socialist Party 16.2% -Liberal Reformist Party9.9% FrancophoneDemocratic Front /Reformist Movement -Francophone Christian Social 8.7% Party/Humanist Democratic Centre -Francophone Ecologists 7.7% -National Front 0.8% -People’s Union 2.9% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Bulgaria 2001 – Recall of 1997 election Party Sample 1997 recall - Coalition for Bulgaria - United Democratic Forces 56.0% - Movement for Rights and Freedoms - National Movement Simeon the Second - Coalition: Georgievden, Inner Macedonian Revolutionary Organization - Bulgarian Communist Party 0.2% - Coalition: Bulgarian Social 28.0% Democratic Party, Democratic Left - Union for National 8.7% Salvation - EuroLeft 1.7% - Bulgarian Business Bloc 1.4% Official 1997 result 52.3% Sample 2001 report 14.8% 16.1% 8.0% Official 2001 result 17.2% 18.2% 7.5% 55.4% 42.7% 5.0% 3.6% Sample 2002 report 31.0% Official 2002 result 30.2% 22.2% 19.9% 24.5% 18.5% 1.9% 2.4% 1.1% 1.0% 18.3% 14.3% 1.3% 22.1% 7.6% 5.5% 4.9% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Czech Republic 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election Party Sample 1998 Official 1998 recall result - Czech Social Democratic 25.5% 32.3% Party - Civic Democratic Party 33.5% 27.7% - Communist Party of the 16.9% 11.0% Czech Lands and Moravia - Green Party - Christian Democratic Union 13.2% 9.0% + Czechoslovak People’s Party - Freedom Union 5.2% 8.6% - Rally for the Republic 0.4% 3.9% - Pensioners for Life 0.2% 3.1% Reliances - Democratic Union 0.7% 1.4% - Miroslav Sladek’s Republicans - Koalice Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for official election results Denmark 2001 election – Recall of 1998 election Party Sample 1998 recall - Social Democrats 37.0% - Radical left, Social Liberal 5.1% Party - Conservative People’s Party 9.5% - Socialist People’s Party 8.7% - Christian People-s Party 1.6% - Left, Liberal Party 27.7% - Progress Party - Red-Green Unity List 2.4% Official 1998 result 35.9% 3.9% Sample 2001 report 27.6% 5.5% Official 2001 result 29.1% 5.2% 8.9% 7.6% 2.5% 24.0% 2.7% 9.0% 6.4% 2.1% 34.4% 0.6% 2.7% 9.1% 6.4% 2.3% 31.2% 0.3% 2.4% Official 1999 result 22.9% Sample 2003 report 26.4% Official 2003 result 24.5% 22.4% 21.0% 10.9% 5.1% 22.2% 14.6% 9.2% 8.3% 24.7% 18.6% 9.9% 4.6% 7.3% 4.2% 1.0% 8.4% 7.4% 1.0% 8.0% 5.3% 1.6% Official 1998 result 40.9% 28.4% 6.7% 6.7% 6.2% 5.1% Sample 2002 report 39.0% 27.5% 4.4% 11.9% 6.9% 9.0% Official 2002 result 38.5% 29.5% 9.0% 8.6% 7.4% 4.0% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Finland 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 recall - Social Democratic Party of 28.5% Finland - Center Party 22.0% - National Coalition Party 18.1% - Left Alliance 6.7% - Swedish People’s Party in 8.5% Finland - Green League 9.4% - Christian Democrats 4.7% - True Finns 0.4% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Germany 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election Party Sample 1998 recall - Social Democratic Party 42.8% - Christian Democratic Union 26.8% - Christian Social Union 3.8% - Alliance 90/Greens 10.7% - Free Democratic Party 5.5% - Party of Democratic 9.7% Socialism - The Republicans 0.5% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results 1.8% Hungary 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election Party Sample 1998 recall - Alliance for Hungary – Center Party - Fidesz – Hungarian Civic 48.3% Party - Hungarian Democratic 2.8% Forum - Hungarian Justice and Life 1.1% Party - Hungarian Socialist Party 36.5% - Alliance of Free Democrats 4.9% - Workers Party 2.2% - Independent Small Holders 4.3% Party - Coaliton: Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Party & Hungarian Democratic Forum Official 1998 result Sample 2002 report 2.9% Official 2002 result 3.9% 5.5% 2.6% 4.4% 32.9% 7.6% 4.0% 13.1% 46.0% 4.8% 2.2% 42.1% 5.6% 2.2% 41.1% 41.1% Official 1999 result 26.8% 18.4% 40.7% 9.1% 4.2% Sample 2003 report 31.6% 18.9% 31.5% 8.4% 7.9% Official 2003 result 31.0% 17.7% 33.7% 8.8% 7.4% Official 1997 result 39.3% 28.0% 2.8% 10.4% 4.7% 2.6% Sample 2002 report 45.8% 21.7% 4.3% 9.3% 3.5% 4.6% Official 2002 result 41.5% 22.5% 3.9% 10.8% 4.0% 6.5% 29.5% 2.8% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Iceland 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 recall - Social Alliance Party 24.6% - Progressive Party 22.9% - Independence Party 41.6% - Left-Green Movement 7.5% - Liberal Party 2.8% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Ireland 2002 election – Recall of 1997 election Party Sample 1997 recall - Fianna Fail 57.3% - Fine Gael 25.9% - Green 2.2% - Labour 9.8% - Progressive Democrats 2.0% - Sinn Fein 1.7% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Israel 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 recall - Likud 30.6% - Labor (One Israel) 29.4% - Shinui 2.9% - Meretz 10.1% - National Union 2.4% - Mafdal (NRP) 3.1% - Yahadut Hatora 4.9% - Shas 4.0% - Israel Baaliya 4.3% - Am Ehad (One Nation) - Center 1.0% - Balad 0.7% - Raam 1.2% - Chadash 3.2% - Israel Beytenu 1.0% Official 1999 result 14.2% 20.3% 5.1% 7.7% 3.0% 4.2% 3.8% 13.0% 5.2% Sample 2003 report 24.9% 15.0% 15.1% 9.2% 6.2% 3.8% 5.6% 5.9% 1.9% 1.2% Official 2003 result 29.4% 14.5% 12.3% 5.2% 5.5% 4.2% 4.3% 8.2% 2.2% 1.9% 5.0% 2.0% 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% 1.4% 3.6% 2.3% 2.1% 3.0% Official 1998 result 29.0% 18.4% Sample 2002 report 17.1% 27.8% Official 2002 result 15.1% 27.9% 24.7% 14.0% 15.4% 9.0% 7.3% 6.3% 9.5% 1.7% 3.9% 0.9% 10.7% 7.7% 5.1% 7.0% 1.7% 2.5% 1.6% 17.0% 5.9% Source: CSES Module 2 – Electoral Studies election report for election results The Netherlands 2002 – Recall of 1998 election Party Sample 1998 recall - Labour Party 27.4% - Christian Democratic 19.6% Appeal - People’s Party for Freedom 22.7% and Democracy - Democrats 66 11.9% - Green Left 7.5% - Political Reformed Party - Christian Union - Livable Netherlands - List Pim Fortuyn - Socialist Party 4.3% - GPV 1.8% - RPF 2.7% Source: CSES Module 2 – Electoral Studies election report for election results 3.8% 1.2% 2.0% New Zealand 2002 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 Official 1999 recall result - Labour 49.7% 38.7% - National 24.8% 30.5% - New Zealand First 9.1% 4.3% - Act New Zealand 4.6% 7.0% - Green 4.3% 5.2% - United Future - Jim Anderton’s Progressive Coalition - Alliance 3.5% 7.7% - Christian Heritage - Outdoor Recreation New Zealand Sample 2002 report 45.1% 17.6% 10.4% 6.1% 8.0% 7.2% 1.1% Official 2002 result 41.3% 20.9% 10.4% 7.1% 7.0% 6.7% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% Sample 2001 report 1.3% 14.5% 22.0% 4.3% 13.2% 5.7% 26.3% 10.5% Official 2001 result 1.2% 12.5% 24.3% 3.9% 12.5% 5.6% 21.2% 14.7% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Norway 2001 – Recall of 1997 election Party Sample 1997 recall - Red Electoral Alliance 1.7% - Socialist Left Party 8.2% - Labour Party 31.5% - Liberal Party 4.8% - Christian Peoples Party 16.2% - Center Party 7.0% - Conservative Party 18.7% - Progress Party 11.5% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Official 1997 result 1.7% 6.0% 35.0% 4.5% 13.7% 7.9% 14.3% 15.3% Poland 2001 election – Recall 1997 election Party Sample 1997 recall - Coalition of the Alliance of the Democratic Left and the Union of Labor - Coalition Electoral Action Solidarity of the Right - Freedom Union 9.7% - Self Defence of the Polish Republic - Law and Justice - Polish People’s party 9.1% - Citizen’s Platform - League of Polish Families - Labor Union 4.1% - National Christian 0.6% Democratic Bloc for Poland - National Alliance of Retired 0.4% of the Republic of Poland - Coalition Electoral 34.1% Solidarity - Alliance of the Democratic 38.3% Left - Movement for the 1.7% Reconstruction of Poland Official 1997 result Sample 2001 report 43.6% Official 2001 result 41.0% 3.9% 5.6% 2.2% 11.4% 3.1% 10.2% 9.5% 8.8% 12.8% 6.8% 9.5% 9.0% 12.7% 7.9% Official 1999 result 32.3% 44.1% 8.3% 9.0% Sample 2002 report 40.6% 40.8% 6.8% 8.5% Official 2002 result 40.2% 37.8% 8.7% 6.9% 2.4% 3.2% 2.7% Official 2002 result 2.7% 8.7% 6.9% Sample 2005 report 8.6% 7.1% 8.5% Official 2005 result 6.4% 7.2% 7.5% 40.2% 37.8% 25.6% 48.8% 28.8% 45.0% 13.4% 5.9% 4.7% 1.4% 2.2% 33.8% 27.1% 5.6% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Portugal 2002 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 recall - Social Democratic Party 34.5% - Socialist Party 51.0% - Popular Party 4.2% - Unitary Democratic 8.9% Coalition - Bloc of the Left 1.4% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Portugal 2005 election – Recall of 2002 election Party Sample 2002 recall - Left Bloc 5.4% - Popular Party 5.0% - Unitary Democratic 8.9% Coalition - Social Democratic Party 36.1% - Socialist Party 44.2% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Romania 2004 election – Recall of 2000 election Party Sample 2000 recall - National Alliance: Social Democratic Party & Romanian Humanistic Party - Truth and Justice Alliance: National Liberal Party & Democratic Party - Greater Romania Party 11.8% - Democratic Alliance of 6.3% Hungarians in Romania - Christian Democratic National Peasants’ Party - National Liberal Party 9.0% - Democratic Party 2.6% - Social Democratic Party 67.0% - CDR 2000 3.3% -Alliance for Romania -National Liberal Party Campeanu -Party National Alliance -New Generation Party Official 2000 result 19.5% 6.8% Sample 2004 report 36.7% Official 2004 result 36.8% 47.3% 31.5% 6.3% 6.2% 13.0% 6.2% 1.4% 1.9% 6.9% 7.0% 36.6% 5.0% 4.1% 1.4% 1.4% 2.2% Source: CSES Module 2 – Electoral Studies election report for election results. Slovenia 2004 election – Recall of 2000 election Party Sample 2000 recall - Slovenian Democratic Party 18.5% - Liberal Democracy of 46.9% Slovenia - United List of Social 11.9% Democrats - New Slovenia – Christian 5.1% People’s Party - Slovenian People’s Party 8.7% - Slovenian National Party 4.9% - Democratic Party of 2.1% Pensioners of Slovenia - Youth Party of Slovenia 1.9% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Official 2000 result 15.8% 36.3% Sample 2004 report 34.4% 27.3% Official 2004 result 29.1% 22.8% 12.1% 11.3% 10.2% 8.6% 6.0% 9.0% 9.6% 4.4% 5.2% 7.3% 6.2% 2.5% 6.8% 6.3% 4.0% 4.3% 0.0% 2.1% Spain 2004 election – Recall of 2000 election Party Sample 2000 recall - Popular Party 36.3% - Spanish Socialist Party 45.1% - United Left 6.5% - Convergence and Union 3.5% - Basque Nationalist Party 2.7% - Canarian Coalition 1.5% - Republican Left of 1.7% Catalonia - Galician Nationalist Bloc 1.0% Official 2000 result 44.6% 34.1% 5.5% 4.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% Sample 2004 report 30.5% 53.0% 4.9% 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% 2.2% Official 2004 result 37.6% 42.6% 5.0% 3.2% 1.6% 0.9% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% Official 1998 result 12.0% 36.4% 5.1% 4.7% 22.9% 11.8% 4.5% Sample 2002 report 9.5% 38.9% 5.0% 18.1% 12.9% 9.0% 6.6% Official 2002 result 8.4% 39.9% 6.2% 13.4% 15.3% 9.1% 4.6% Sample 2003 report 15.6% 12.6% Official 2003 result 17.3% 14.4% 29.9% 23.3% 1.7% 2.3% 23.3% 26.7% 2.2% 2.3% 6.2% 0.3% 1.1% 7.4% 1.0% 1.3% Sample 2005 report 44.3% 31.3% 20.6% 1.5% Official 2005 result 35.2% 32.4% 22.0% 1.5% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Sweden 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election Party Sample 1998 recall - Left Party 12.4% - Social Democrats 39.7% - Centre Party 5.1% - People’s Party Liberals 7.1% - Conservative Party 20.4% - Christian Democrats 11.4% - Green Party 3.9% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results Switzerland 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election Party Sample 1999 Official 1999 recall result - Radical-Democratic Party 20.9% 19.9% - Christian Democratic 14.1% 15.9% People’s Party - Social-Democratic Party 33.5% 22.5% - Swiss People’s Party 20.4% 22.5% - Liberal Party 1.7% 2.3% - Protestant People’s Party 1.9% 1.8% - Swiss Labor Party 0.6% 1.0% - Green Party 3.3% 5.0% - Swiss Democrats Party 0.1% 1.8% - Federal Democratic Union 0.5% 1.3% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for official results Great Britain 2005 election – Recall of 2001 election Party Sample 2001 Official 2001 recall result - Labour 50.1% 40.7% - Conservative 30.7% 31.7% - Liberal Democrats 15.4% 18.3% - Scottish National Party 1.9% 1.8% Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results CSES – MODULE 3 Australia 2007 election – Recall of 2004 election Party Sample 2004 recall - Liberal Party 48.6% - Australian Labor Party 32.2% - National Party 4.3% - Greens 7.9% - Australian Democrats 3.2% Official 2004 result 40.5% 37.6% 5.9% 7.2% 1.2% Sample 2007 report 38.5% 45.3% 4.4% 8.1% Official 2007 result 36.3% 43.4% 5.5% 7.8% Official 2006 result 36.3% 30.2% 17.5% 10.5% 4.5% Sample 2008 report 38.7% 26.0% 18.6% 9.2% 6.6% Official 2008 result 37.7% 26.3% 18.2% 10.0% 6.8% Official 2003 result 33.9% 8.0% Sample 2007 report 37.6% 6.6% Official 2007 result 36.0% 6.7% 3.7% 5.4% 1.6% 3.4% 4.0% 1.8% 1.7% 32.0% 1.5% 30.8% 8.3% 6.4% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Canada 2008 election – Recall of 2006 election Party Sample 2006 recall - Conservative Party 38.9% - Liberal Party 31.0% - New Democratic Party 14.9% - Bloc Québécois 10.3% - Green Party 4.1% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Croatia 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - Croatian Democratic Union 42.8% - Croatian People’s party – 6.8% Liberal Democrats - Croatian Peasant Party 4.9% - Croatian Social Liberal Party 3.7% - Croatian Party of Rights 3.7% - Croatian Party of Pensioners 3.4% - Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja - Istrian Democratic Assembly - Social Democratic Party of 33.9% Croatia - Coalition of Croatian Peasant Party and Croatian Social Liberal Party Source: CSES Module 3 – http://www.parties-and-elections.eu for election results 7.2% 4.1% 6.4% 4.0% 22.6% Czech Republic 2006 – Recall of 2002 election Party Sample 2002 recall - Balbin Poetic Party 30.4% - Law and Justice 1.1% - Civic Democratic Party - Czech Social Democratic 1.7% Party - SNK European Democrats 2.0% - Green Party 0.1% - Communist Party of Bohemia n.a. and Moravia - Coalition for the Czech 1.6% Republic - Folklore and Society 30.9% - Christian Democratic Union 14.0% + Czechoslovak Peoples’ Party - Independent Democrats 1.0% - Party of Equal Chances 9.9% - Civic Democratic Alliance 2.3% Official 2002 result - Sample 2006 report Official 2006 result 30.2% 34.9% 28.5% 35.4% 32.3% 2.4% 18.5% 1.6% 9.8% 13.6% 6.3% 12.8% 7.6% 7.2% 12.8% Sample 2010 report 12.7% 11.0% Official 2010 result 10.9% 11.3% 32.3% 24.8% 22.1% 2.8% 4.3% 18.1% 3.1% 16.7% 4.4% 2.6% 2.6% 0.3% 19.4% 2.4% 3.7% 1.2% 20.2% 14.3% 2.8% 24.5% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code Czech Republic 2010 – Recall of 2006 election Party Sample 2006 recall - Public Affairs - Communist Party of Bohemia 1.7% and Moravia - Czech Crown - Czech Social Democratic 37.9% Party - National Prosperity 32.4% - Party of Citizens RightsZemanites - TOP 09 - Christian Democratic Union 0.4% + Czechoslovak Peoples’ Party - Right Bloc 4.8% - Green Party 10.7% - Sovereignty - DSSS 5.5% - Civic Democratic Party 2.5% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Official 2006 result - 7.2% 6.3% 35.4% Denmark 2007 election – Recall of 2005 election Party Sample 2005 recall - Social Democrats 22.8% - Radical left, Social Liberal 9.3% Party - Conservative People’s party 7.5% - Socialist People’s Party 10.1% - Christian Democrats 1.6% - Danish People’s Party 10.1% - Left, Liberal Party 32.2% - New Alliance - United List – The Red3.7% Greens - Center Democrats 1.1% Official 2005 result 25.8% 9.2% Sample 2007 report 22.0% 5.3% Official 2007 result 25.5% 5.1% 10.3% 6.0% 1.7% 13.3% 29.0% 9.3% 17.4% 1.4% 10.6% 27.4% 3.3% 3.3% 10.4% 13.0% 0.9% 13.9% 26.2% 2.8% 2.2% Official 2007 result 7.1% 17.9% Sample 2011 report 4.0% 21.3% Official 2011 result 3.8% 20.5% 9.9% 27.8% 26.1% 7.1% 22.2% 22.4% 23.5% 2.3% 17.1% 28.6% 23.3% 2.1% Official 2003 result 24.7% 24.5% Sample 2007 report 21.1% 21.4% Official 2007 result 23.1% 21.4% 18.6% 9.9% 8.0% 4.6% 18.8% 8.0% 9.9% 10.5% 22.3% 8.8% 8.5% 4.6% 5.3% 1.6% 5.8% 3.3% 4.9% 4.1% 3.4% 1.0% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Estonia 2011 election – Recall of 2007 election Party Sample 2007 recall - Estonian Greens 6.0% - Pro Patria and Res Publica 19.3% Union - Social Democratic Party 8.0% - Estonian Reform Party 29.4% - Estonian Centre Party 28.8% - Estonian People’s Union 6.6% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Finland 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - Centre Party of Finland 22.3% - Social Democratic Party of 25.5% Finland - National Coalition Party 16.9% - Left Alliance 7.3% - Green League 9.1% - Swedish People’s Party in 11.2% Finland - Christian Democrats 5.1% - True Finns 2.0% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Finland 2011 election – Recall of 2007 election Party Sample 2007 recall - Social Democratic Party of 25.8% Finland - Centre Party of Finland 19.1% - National Coalition Party 19.3% - Swedish People’s Party in 7.8% Finland - Christian Democrats in 3.8% Finland - Green League 11.5% - Left Alliance 8.7% - True Finns 3.0% Official 2007 result 21.4% Sample 2011 report 21.4% Official 2011 result 19.1% 23.1% 22.3% 4.6% 13.0% 16.5% 7.1% 15.8% 20.4% 4.3% 4.9% 3.9% 4.0% 8.5% 8.8% 4.1% 9.4% 9.1% 18.0% 7.3% 8.1% 19.1% Official 2002 result 29.5% 9.0% 38.5% 7.4% 8.6% 4.0% Sample 2005 report 24.0% 4.3% 35.0% 11.5% 9.6% 13.7% Official 2005 result 27.8% 7.4% 34.2% 9.8% 8.1% 8.7% 1.1% 1.6% Sample 2009 report 31.4% 3.9% 22.3% 14.3% 10.4% 14.8% 1.0% 0.7% Official 2009 result 27.3% 6.5% 23.0% 14.6% 10.7% 11.9% 2.0% 1.5% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Germany 2005 election – Recall of 2002 election Party Sample 2002 recall - Christian Democratic Union 24.6% - Christian Social Union 4.5% - Social Democratic Party 42.2% - Free Democratic Alliance 7.6% - Alliance 90/Greens 12.0% - Left/Party of Democratic 7.9% Socialism - National Democratic Party of Germany Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Germany 2009 election – Recall of 2005 election Party Sample 2005 recall - Christian Democratic Union 33.4% - Christian Social Union 4.8% - Social Democratic Party 32.9% - Free Democratic Party 8.7% - Alliance 90/Greens 11.4% - Left Party 7.2% - Pirate Party - National Democratic Party 0.6% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Official 2005 result 27.8% 7.4% 34.2% 9.8% 8.1% 8.7% 1.6% Greece 2009 election – Recall of 2007 election Party Sample 2007 recall -Pan-Hellenic Socialist 37.2% Movement - New Democracy 42.2% - Communist Party of Greece 7.4% - Popular Orthodox Rally 2.8% - Coalition of the Radical Left 8.0% - Ecologists – Greens Official 2007 result 38.1% Sample 2009 report 49.1% Official 2009 result 43.9% 41.8% 8.2% 3.8% 5.0% 31.2% 7.2% 3.2% 5.1% 2.7% 33.5% 7.5% 5.6% 4.6% 2.5% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Iceland 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - Social Democratic Alliance 27.3% - Progressive Party 16.0% - Independence Party 41.8% - Left Green Movement 11.4% - Liberal Party 3.2% Official 2003 result 31.0% 17.7% 33.7% 8.8% 7.4% Sample 2007 report 27.2% 10.2% 38.8% 16.0% 4.7% Official 2007 result 26.8% 11.7% 36.6% 14.3% 7.3% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Iceland 2009 election – Recall of 2007 election Party Sample 2007 recall - Social Democratic Alliance 29.5% - Progressive Party 13.4% - Independence Party 37.5% - Left Green Movement 14.6% - Liberal Party 3.9% - Civic Movement Official 2007 result 26.8% 11.7% 36.6% 14.3% 7.3% Sample 2009 report 30.8% 15.8% 22.2% 21.8% 1.7% 7.1% Official 2009 result 29.8% 14.8% 23.7% 21.7% 2.2% 7.2% Official 2002 result 41.5% 22.5% 10.8% 3.9% 4.0% 6.5% Sample 2007 report 48.2% 27.4% 8.9% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% Official 2007 result 41.6% 27.3% 10.1% 4.7% 2.7% 6.9% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Ireland 2007 election – Recall of 2002 election Party Sample 2002 recall - Fianna Fail 48.2% - Fine Gael 19.9% - Labour 10.7% - Green Party 3.3% - Progressive Democrats 4.5% - Sinn Fein 3.3% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Israel 2006 – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - Kadima - Labor (Avoda) 20.4% - Likud 45.6% - Ihud Leumi – Mafdal 6.1% - Shas 2.5% - Yahadut Hatora Vehashabbat 2.0% - Israel Beytenu - Meretz-Yahad 6.5% - Gimlaim - Hadash 2.2% - Raam-Taal 0.7% - Balad 0.8% - Shinuy 8.1% - Israel Baalia 2.6% - Am Ehad (One Nation) 0.1% Official 2003 result 14.5% 29.4% 4.2% 8.2% 4.3% 5.5% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 12.3% 2.2% 2.8% Sample 2006 report 28.8% 14.2% 12.5% 7.2% 3.4% 2.2% 11.5% 5.6% 4.1% 3.6% 1.6% 2.3% Official 2006 result 22.0% 15.1% 9.0% 7.1% 9.5% 4.7% 9.0% 3.8% 5.9% 2.7% 3.0% 2.3% Sample 2006 report 41.0% Official 2006 result 34.2% 1.5% 1.0% 4.7% 2.1% 31.5% 25.0% 29.7% 28.9% Source: CSES Module 3 – Electoral Studies election report for election results Mexico 2006 – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - National Action Party 39.3% - Democratic Revolution Party 18.6% - Institutional Revolutionary 38.1% Party - Mexican Green Ecological 0.6% Party - Labor Party 1.5% - Convergencia 0.4% - New Alliance Party - Social Democratic and Peasant Party - Coalition for the Good of All - Alliance for Mexico 1.1% Source: CSES Module 3 – Electoral Studies election report for election results Official 2003 result 31.8% 18.2% 23.9% 4.1% 2.5% 2.3% 14.0% Mexico 2009 – Recall of 2006 election Party Sample 2006 recall - Institutional Revolutionary 46.5% Party - National Action Party 33.9% - Democratic Revolution Party 15.4% - Mexican Green Ecological 1.5% Party - Labor Party 0.6% - New Alliance Party 0.4% - Convergencia 0.3% - Partido Social Democrata 0.2% -Coalition for Good of All -Alliance for Mexico Source: CSES Module 3 – Electoral Studies election report for election Official 2006 result Sample 2009 report 52.2% Official 2009 result 36.8% 34.2% 28.3% 11.2% 3.7% 28.0% 12.2% 6.5% 2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 3.6% 3.4% 2.4% Official 2003 result 28.6% 27.3% 17.9% Sample 2006 report 27.2% 21.2% 14.4% Official 2006 result 26.5% 21.2% 14.6% 5.1% 6.3% 4.1% 2.1% 1.6% 5.7% 5.0% 17.5% 1.7% 4.3% 1.2% 4.6% 16.6% 2.0% 4.0% 1.6% 1.5% 5.0% 1.8% 5.9% Official 2006 result 14.6% Sample 2010 report 21.5% Official 2010 result 20.5% 21.2% 5.9% 26.5% 16.6% 2.0% 4.6% 4.0% 1.6% 1.8% 19.6% 11.8% 13.0% 11.3% 8.8% 7.2% 3.5% 1.3% 1.1% 19.6% 15.5% 13.6% 9.8% 7.0% 6.7% 3.2% 1.7% 1.3% 4.7% 2.1% 29.7% 28.9% results The Netherlands 2006 – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - Christian Democratic Appeal 28.3% - Labour Party 27.5% - People’s Party for Freedom 18.0% and Democracy - Green Left 5.2% - Socialist Party 7.5% - Democrats 66 4.8% - Christian Union 2.5% - Political Reformed Party 1.2% - Pim Fortuyn List 4.3% - Party for the Animals - Party for Freedom Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Netherlands 2010 election – Recall of 2006 election Party Sample 2006 recall - People’s Party for Freedom 16.9% and Democracy - Labour Party 23.0% - Party of Freedom 2.8% - Christian Democratic Appeal 24.2% - Socialist Party 11.9% - Democrats 66 8.0% - Green Left 7.3% - Christian Union 3.7% - Political Reformed Party 1.1% - Party for the Animals 1.8% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results New Zealand 2008 election – Recall of 2005 election Party Sample 2005 Official 2005 recall result - National Party 35.1% 39.1% - Labour Party 46.4% 41.1% - Green Party of Aotearoa New 5.3% 5.3% Zealand - New Zealand First 5.3% 5.7% - Act New Zealand 2.7% 1.5% - Maori Party 1.3% 2.1% - Jim Anderton’s progressive 0.3% 1.2% Party - United Future 2.5% 2.7% Sample 2008 report 46.0% 32.3% 6.5% Official 2008 result 44.9% 34.0% 6.7% 5.2% 3.5% 2.7% 4.1% 3.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.9% Official 2001 result 1.2% 12.5% 24.3% 3.9% 12.5% 5.6% 21.2% 14.7% Sample 2005 report 1.1% 10.4% 33.8% 5.8% 5.4% 7.7% 16.2% 18.5% Official 2005 result 1.2% 8.8% 32.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.5% 14.1% 22.1% Official 2005 result 1.2% 8.8% 32.7% 5.9% 6.8% 6.5% 14.1% 22.1% Sample 2009 report 1.4% 8.4% 35.0% 4.6% 4.5% 6.5% 20.0% 19.2% Official 2009 result 1.4% 6.2% 35.4% 3.9% 5.5% 6.2% 17.2% 22.9% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Norway 2005 – Recall of 2001 election Party Sample 2001 recall - Red Electoral Alliance 1.0% - Socialist Left Party 12.7% - Labour Party 27.9% - Liberal Party 4.6% - Christian Peoples Party 10.3% - Center Party 6.1% - Conservative Party 22.4% - Progress Party 13.7% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Norway 2009 election – Recall of 2005 election Party Sample 2005 recall - Red Electoral Alliance 0.9% - Socialist Left Party 11.4% - Labour Party 36.1% - Liberal Party 6.1% - Christian Peoples party 5.5% - Center Party 6.6% - Conservative party 17.8% - Progress Party 15.3% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Poland 2005 election – Recall of 2001 election Party Sample 2001 recall - Ruch Patriotyczny - League of Polish Families 5.6% - Democratic Party - Social Democracy of Poland - Law and Justice 7.0% - Left Democratic Alliance 41.4% - Civic Platform 10.4% - Polish Peasant Party 8.0% - Platforma Janusza KorwinMikke - Self-Defence 8.7% - Freedom Union 8.2% - Solidarity Electoral Action 9.5% Official 2001 result 7.9% 9.5% 41.0% 12.7% 9.0% 10.2% 3.1% 5.6% Sample 2005 report 0.4% 6.8% 1.4% 3.4% 35.3% 9.0% 25.7% 6.3% 1.1% Official 2005 result 1.1% 8.0% 2.5% 3.9% 27.0% 11.3% 24.1% 7.0% 1.6% 9.7% 11.4% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Poland 2007 election – Recall of 2005 election Party Sample 2005 recall - League of Polish Families n.a. - Social Democracy of Poland 3.2% - Law and Justice n.a. - Left Democratic Alliance 1.1% - Civic Platform 45.7% - Mniejszosc Niemiecka 11.1% - Polish Peasant Party 29.1% - Left and Democrats - Ruch Patriotyczny 4.2% - Self-Defense of the Republic n.a. - Polish National Party 5.5% -Democratic Party n.a. -Platform of Janusz Korwinn.a. Mikke Official 2005 result 8.0% 3.9% 27.0% 11.3% 24.1% 7.0% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code 1.1% 11.4% 2.5% 1.6% Sample 2007 report 1.2% Official 2007 result 1.3% 29.2% 32.1% 51.7% 0.2% 7.8% 8.5% 41.5% 0.7% 1.5% 8.9% 13.2% Slovakia 2010 election – Recall of 2006 election Party Sample 2006 recall - Communist Party of Slovakia 1.2% - Christian Democratic 9.2% Movement - People’s Party – Movement 4.1% for a Democratic Slovakia - People’s Party – Our Slovakia - Most Hid - Freedom and Solidarity - Slovak Democratic and 18.1% Christian Union - Slovak National Party 4.3% - Direction –Social Democracy 49.7% - Party of the Democratic Left - Party of the Hungarian 10.9% Coalition - Alliance of the New Citizen 0.8% Official 2006 result 3.9% 8.3% Sample 2010 report Official 2010 result 10.4% 8.5% 8.8% 1.8% 4.3% 0.3% 1.3% 9.6% 8.2% 16.9% 8.1% 12.1% 15.4% 2.7% 44.1% 1.3% 2.7% 5.1% 34.8% 2.4% 4.3% Official 2004 result 4.0% Sample 2008 report 6.5% Official 2008 result 7.5% 22.8% 5.1% 5.2% 6.8% 4.6% 5.2% 6.3% 29.1% 10.2% 7.7% 22.5% 41.4% 9.3% 5.4% 29.3% 30.5% 9.4% 18.4% 11.7% 29.1% 11.7% 1.4% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Slovenia 2008 election – Recall of 2004 election Party Sample 2004 recall - Democratic Party of 4.7% Pensioners of Slovenia - Liberal Democracy of 22.2% Slovenia - Slovenian People’s n.a. Party/Youth Party of Slovenia - Slovenian National Party 7.1% - Slovenian Democratic Party 41.9% - Social Democrats n.a. - For Real-New Politics Party - New Slovenia – Christian 2.1% People’s Party Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code 9.0% Sweden 2006 election – Recall of 2002 election Party Sample 2002 recall - Left Party 7.8% - Social Democrats 44.7% - Centre Party 6.2% - People’s Party Liberals 11.5% - Conservative Party 17.2% - Christian Democrats 6.5% - Green Party 4.5% - Sweden Democrats 1.1% Official 2002 result 8.4% 39.9% 6.2% 13.4% 15.3% 9.1% 4.6% 1.4% Sample 2006 report 5.8% 35.7% 7.1% 7.1% 26.3% 6.8% 6.1% 2.3% Official 2006 result 5.8% 35.2% 7.9% 7.5% 26.1% 6.6% 5.2% 2.9% Official 2003 result 17.3% 14.4% Sample 2007 report 18.2% 16.8% Official 2007 result 15.8% 14.5% 23.3% 26.7% 2.2% 2.3% 7.4% 1.3% 23.0% 26.3% 1.1% 1.7% 9.5% 0.4% 19.5% 28.9% 1.9% 2.4% 9.6% 1.3% Official 2007 result 46.6% Sample 2011 report 62.0% Official 2011 result 49.8% 20.9% 14.3% 5.2% 21.8% 8.2% 6.2% 26.0% 13.0% 6.6% Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Switzerland 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election Party Sample 2003 recall - Radical-Democratic Party 21.9% - Christian Democratic 16.8% People’s Party - Social Democratic Party 28.7% - People’s Party 22.6% - Liberal Party 1.4% - Protestant People’s Party 1.7% - Swiss Green Party 4.3% - Federal Democratic Union of 0.6% Switzerland Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results Turkey 2011 election – Recall of 2007 election Party Sample 2007 recall - Justice and Development 62.1% Party - Republican People’s Party 21.7% - Nationalist Movement Party 8.3% - Peace and Democracy Party n.a. Source: CSES Module 3 – Parties and Elections in Europe database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code. Uruguay 2009 election – Recall 2004 election Party Sample 2004 recall - National Party 29.0% - Colorado Party 12.0% - Broad Front 56.9% - Independent Party 1.6% Official 2004 result 35.1% 10.6% 51.7% 1.9% Sample 2009 report 26.3% 13.5% 57.5% 1.9% Official 2009 result 29.9% 17.5% 49.3% 2.6% Source: CSES Module 3 – Adam Carr’s website (http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/uruguay/uruguay20043.txt) and Corte Electoral (http://elecciones.corteelectoral.gub.uy/20091025/SSPMain.asp) B. Procedure for excluding election samples In a first step, we take the information from the recalled vote and compare how the election sample recalls to have voted in the previous election with the actual vote shares each of the parties obtained in that election (see A. Overview of error by election and party). We hence assess how much the recalled vote – when aggregated for the full election sample – differs from the election results in the previous election. In a second step, we used this information to decide on the ‘quality’ of the recall, by only retaining those election samples for which no single party’s vote share differed more than 7.5 percentage point from its actual vote share in the previous election. We furthermore added those election samples for which the recall was over 7.5 percentage points off but for which an error of this size is in line with a ‘normal’ bias in the reported vote share in the election sample. To this end, we compared the recall error with the error in the vote share of the current election for that same party (if the party ran in the current election as well). If the recall error was reasonably close to the ‘normal’ error (we take 5 percentage points as a cut-off), that election sample was retained for the analyses. The election samples retained are marked in bold in the Table below. This overview clarifies that the process of cross-validation has mainly served to filter out those election samples in which there were large inconsistencies between the reported voting behavior and the official election results. Table Appendix 4B. Election samples. Election The Netherlands (2006) Canada (2008) Estonia (2011) Iceland (2009) The Netherlands (2002) Greece (2009) Sweden (2002) Norway (2005) Denmark (2001) Denmark (2007) Norway (2001) Finland (2011) Iceland (2003) Germany (2002) Sweden (2006) Germany (2005) Poland (2005) New Zealand (2008) Switzerland (2007) Finland (2003) Germany (2009) Belgium (2003) The Netherlands (2010) Uruguay (2009) Portugal (2005) Finland (2007) Ireland (2007) Czech Republic (2002) Norway (2009) Portugal (2002) Australia (2007) Iceland (2007) Great Britain (2005) Australia (2004) Bulgaria (2001) Slovenia (2004) New Zealand (2002) Largest recall error 1.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3 3.3 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.6 6 6 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 8.1 8.1 9.4 9.8 9.8 10.6 11 ‘Normal’ error for this party |Recall error 'normal' error| 2.2 2.2 9.1 5.7 2.1 4.5 3.8 5.9 5.9 0.3 4.1 7.7 6.1 7.2 Table Appendix 4B (2). Election samples (continued) Election Spain (2004) Switzerland (2003) Poland (2001) Croatia (2007) Slovenia (2008) Mexico (2006) Turkey (2011) Israel (2006) Israel (2003) Ireland (2002) Hungary (2002) Slovakia (2010) Poland (2007) Romania (2004) Czech Republic (2006) Czech Republic (2010) Mexico (2009) n.a.: party did not run in the current election. Largest recall error 11 11 11.2 11.3 12.8 14.2 15.5 16.2 16.4 18 18.8 20.6 27 30.4 30.4 32.9 46.5 ‘Normal’ error for this party 10.4 6.6 n.a. 1.2 6.8 n.a. 12.2 3.5 4.5 4.3 n.a. 9.3 10.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.4 |Recall error 'normal' error| 0.6 4.4 10.1 6 3.3 12.7 11.9 13.7 11.3 16.8 31.1 Appendix 5. Main models with control variables added (only two contrasts shown) Model I Switched parties Abstained vs. vs. loyal loyal Individual level Constant Like-dislike of party previously voted for Satisfaction with democracy Closeness to a party Age Female College education Political knowledge Contextual level ENEP Compulsory voting Polarisation Disproportionality Cross level interaction Like-dislike of party previously voted for * ENEP N observations N elections σ2 election-switching σ2 election-abstaining σ2 like-dislike election-switching σ2 like-dislike election-abstaining Bayesian DIC Model II Switched parties Abstained vs. vs. loyal loyal 3.530*** (0.476) -4.929*** (0.090) -0.068 (0.060) -0.673*** (0.033) -0.010*** (0.001) 0.086** (0.032) 0.215*** (0.035) 0.001 (0.018) 0.206 (0.599) -3.497*** (0.136) -0.564*** (0.098) -0.718*** (0.060) -0.025*** (0.002) -0.060 (0.054) -0.385*** (0.064) -0.367*** (0.031) 2.237*** (0.172) -4.347*** (0.315) -0.066 (0.060) -0.645*** (0.034) -0.011*** (0.001) 0.095*** (0.031) 0.219*** (0.037) 0.000 (0.017) -2.813*** (0.281) -2.096*** (0.351) -0.539*** (0.105) -0.715*** (0.060) -0.024*** (0.002) -0.053 (0.055) -0.379*** (0.065) -0.368*** (0.030) 0.172*** (0.043) 0.294 (0.394) -0.175*** (0.057) -0.081* (0.034) 0.298*** (0.082) -0.713 (0.567) 0.110 (0.194) 0.155*** (0.045) 0.409*** (0.058) 0.169 (0.307) -0.054 (0.034) -0.048* (0.023) 0.551*** (0.071) -0.652 (0.578) 0.677*** (0.105) 0.159*** (0.041) -0.223*** (0.052) -0.377*** (0.046) 27,685 30 0.281 0.655 35,778.82 27,685 30 2.341 1.382 2.969 -1.365 35,466.65 Entries are unstandardized coefficients of a multinomial multilevel logit model, estimated via runmlwin in Stata. MCMC estimation. Significance levels: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001. i http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/europe/EE/estonia-elections-assessment-mission-report/view