Appendix 1. Elections included in analyses
Poland 2005
Ireland 2007
The Netherlands 2010
Estonia 2011
The Netherlands 2002
Norway 2001
Norway 2005
Finland 2011
Sweden 2006
The Netherlands 2006
Sweden 2002
Iceland 2009
Norway 2009
Germany 2005
Iceland 2003
Switzerland 2007
Denmark 2001
Germany 2009
New Zealand 2008
Canada 2008
Finland 2007
Denmark 2007
Czech Republic 2002
Germany 2002
Belgium 2003 (French)
Finland 2003
Portugal 2005
Switzerland 2003
Australia 2004
Great Britain 2005
Greece 2009
Portugal 2002
Belgium 2003 (Dutch)
Spain 2004
Turkey 2011
Uruguay 2009
Total
Source: CSES Module 2 and Module 3.
Stable
32.29%
33.09%
55.32%
56.83%
58.50%
60.44%
60.92%
61.25%
62.23%
64.04%
64.15%
64.63%
66.36%
67.61%
67.79%
68.81%
69.33%
70.62%
70.77%
71.63%
71.65%
71.83%
72.81%
73.51%
73.62%
74.04%
74.97%
75.44%
76.08%
77.99%
78.21%
78.35%
82.55%
86.99%
87.42%
88.83%
68.27%
Switch
parties
37.33%
56.13%
40.70%
34.88%
40.40%
27.56%
32.90%
32.39%
33.52%
34.12%
30.77%
32.98%
27.44%
29.04%
29.99%
21.36%
28.17%
21.97%
27.51%
23.40%
21.41%
27.16%
19.39%
22.57%
26.38%
18.68%
17.52%
17.94%
22.54%
11.62%
15.08%
12.43%
17.45%
8.47%
12.58%
11.17%
26.34%
Abstain
30.38%
10.78%
3.98%
8.29%
1.10%
12.00%
6.18%
6.36%
4.25%
1.84%
5.08%
2.39%
6.20%
3.35%
2.22%
9.83%
2.50%
7.41%
1.72%
4.96%
6.94%
1.00%
7.80%
3.92%
0.00%
7.28%
7.51%
6.62%
1.37%
10.39%
6.70%
9.22%
0.00%
4.54%
0.00%
0.00%
5.39%
N
576
408
1,607
410
906
1,600
1,538
849
871
1,738
728
752
1,436
1,374
857
1,231
1,601
1,188
756
1,410
850
1,097
423
1,608
345
728
1,478
680
1,455
568
537
716
275
661
604
707
34,568
Appendix 2a . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis
Election
CSES
Module
2
Included in
parsimonious
model?
No
Included in
model with
controls?
No
ALBANIA (2005)
AUSTRALIA (2004)
BELGIUM (2003)
*Belgium Dutch
*Belgium French
BRAZIL (2002)
BULGARIA (2001)
2
2
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
2
2
No
No
No
No
CANADA (2004)
2
No
No
CHILE (2005)
TAIWAN (2001)
TAIWAN (2004)
CZECH REPUBLIC (2002)
DENMARK (2001)
FINLAND (2003)
FRANCE (2002)
GERMANY (2002)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Reason for not including
Problems with coding of volatility: 16
parties, most changing labels,
splitting, merging from one election
to another. Inconsistent party labels in
election report Electoral Studies
versus codebook CSES. Furthermore,
according to Freedom House, the
2005 elections only partly met
international standards (FHI score
3.0)
No left-right placement of parties.
Consequently polarization could not
be calculated.
No recall question
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Only 259 respondents recall previous
vote choice (versus 1347 respondents
indicating current choice)
No recall question
No recall question
No parliamentary election
No knowledge question
No parliamentary election
Appendix 2b . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued)
Election
CSES
Module
2
Included in
parsimonious
model?
No
Included in
model with
controls?
No
HONG KONG (2004)
HUNGARY (2002)
2
No
No
ICELAND (2003)
IRELAND (2002)
2
2
Yes
No
No
No
ISRAEL (2003)
2
No
No
ITALY (2006)
2
No
No
JAPAN (2004)
KOREA (2004)
KYRGYZSTAN (2005)
MEXICO (2003)
NETHERLANDS (2002)
2
2
2
2
2
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
NEW ZEALAND (2002)
NORWAY (2001)
PERU (2006)
PHILIPPINES (2004)
2
2
2
2
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Reason for not including
Could according to Freedom House
only be considered partly free (score
4.0).
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No knowledge question
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No question ‘did R cast ballot in
previous election?’
No lower house vote choice
No recall question
No parliamentary election
No recall question
No ‘Who people vote for makes a
difference’
No recall question
For over 50% of recalled voting
behavior “Candidates with no
information about party affiliation”
Appendix 2c . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued)
Election
CSES
Module
2
Included in
parsimonious
model?
No
Included in
model with
controls?
No
POLAND (2001)
PORTUGAL (2002)
PORTUGAL (2005)
ROMANIA (2004)
2
2
2
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
RUSSIA (2004)
SLOVENIA (2004)
SPAIN (2004)
SWEDEN (2002)
SWITZERLAND (2003)
GREAT BRITAIN (2005)
UNITED STATES (2004)
AUSTRALIA (2007)
AUSTRIA (2008)
BRAZIL (2006)
BRAZIL (2010)
BELARUS (2008)
CANADA (2008)
CHILE (2009)
CROATIA (2007)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
CZECH REPUBLIC (2006)
3
No
No
Reason for not including
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No parliamentary election
No recall question
No recall question
No recall question
No recall question
No recall question
No recall question
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Appendix 2d . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued)
Election
CSES
Module
3
Included in
parsimonious
model?
No
Included in
model with
controls?
No
CZECH REPUBLIC (2010)
DENMARK (2007)
ESTONIA (2011)
FINLAND (2007)
FINLAND (2011)
FRANCE (2007)
GERMANY (2005)
3
3
3
3
3
3
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
GERMANY (2009)
GREECE (2009)
HONG KONG (2008)
3
3
3
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
ICELAND (2007)
ICELAND (2009)
IRELAND (2007)
3
3
3
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
ISRAEL (2006)
3
No
No
JAPAN (2007)
LATVIA (2010)
MEXICO (2006)
3
3
3
No
No
No
No
No
No
Reason for not including
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No recall question
No ‘Who people vote for makes a
difference’
No party votes, but candidate
mentions. Only for a limited number
of candidates, party affiliations could
be assigned by the CSES-team. Only
partly free according to FHI (3.5)
No ‘Who is in power makes a
difference’
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No lower house vote choice
No ‘Do you feel closer to one party’
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Appendix 2e . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued)
Election
CSES
Module
3
Included in
parsimonious
model?
No
Included in
model with
controls?
No
MEXICO (2009)
NETHERLANDS (2006)
NETHERLANDS (2010)
NEW ZEALAND (2008)
NORWAY (2005)
NORWAY (2009)
PERU (2011)
PHILIPPINES (2010)
POLAND (2005)
POLAND (2007)
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
PORTUGAL (2009)
ROMANIA (2009)
SLOVAKIA (2010)
3
3
3
No
No
No
No
No
No
SLOVENIA (2008)
3
No
No
SPAIN (2008)
SWEDEN (2006)
SOUTH AFRICA (2009)
SOUTH KOREA (2008)
3
3
3
3
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Reason for not including
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No recall question
No recall question
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No recall question
No parliamentary election
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
Large inconsistencies between
recalled voting behavior and election
result (see Appendix 3)
No recall question
No recall question
No recall question
Appendix 2f . CSES election samples included and excluded from the analysis (continued)
Election
CSES
Module
3
Included in
parsimonious
model?
Yes
Included in
model with
controls?
Yes
SWITZERLAND (2007)
TAIWAN (2008)
THAILAND (2007)
3
3
No
No
No
No
TURKEY (2011)
UNITED STATES (2008)
URUGUAY (2009)
3
3
3
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Reason for not including
No ‘Who is in power makes a
difference’
No parliamentary election
Military coup in between 2007 and
previous (2006) elections – TRT party
banned. Considered not free
according to FHI (5.5)
No recall question
No knowledge question
Appendix 3. Party system changes
The reference brackets refers to the source(s) where the election report can be found. ES stands for the
journal Electoral Studies, EJPR for European Journal of Political Research and WEP for West European
Politics.
Australia 2004 (ES: Vol. 24 (3), pp. 545–551)
The coalition between Liberal and National might make some voters switch their first choice on the ballot
purely out of strategic reasons if the chance of winning has drastically changed in a constituency, but we
doubt this will happen more than on a very rare occasion.
Belgium 2003 (ES: Vol. 23, 3, pp. 566–571)
On the Flemish side, the Flemish nationalist Volksunie (People’s Union) split into two factions:
the Nieuwe Vlaamse Alliantie (New Flemish Alliance, N-VA), a re-founded Flemish nationalist
party, and SPIRIT, a group of progressive Flemish nationalists. Voters coming from Volksunie
going either to NV-A or Spirit are not considered switchers.
Canada 2008 (ES: Vol. 28(2), pp. 326-329)
No significant in the party system.
Czech Republic 2002 (ES: Vol. 22(4), pp. 772-778)
Before the 1998 local and Senate elections, discontent with the opposition agreement led to the formation
of the so-called Quad Coalition of four smaller parties: the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), the Freedom
Union (US), the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), and Democratic Union (DEU). The Quads split again
at the beginning of 2002. The ODA left the Quads. Just before the ODA departed, the US and DEU
merged, so the Quad Coalition then had only two parties and was renamed simply the Coalition. Voters
coming from the original 1998 ‘Quad’ that vote for one of the resulting parties that split from the Quad or
the Coalition that is the remainder of the Quad are non-switchers.
Denmark 2001 (ES: Vol 22, pp. 153-193)
No significant changes in the party system.
Denmark 2007 (EJPR: Vol. 47, pp. 952-961)
A new party (New Alliance) was founded by a number of MP’s from existing parties, but since the
original parties still run separately we consider this not to be a party connected to the previous ones.
People voting for New Alliance are coded as switchers.
Estonia 2011
There was no entry yet in ES or EJPR for this election, but the OECD election reporti does not mention
any major changes in the party system.
Finland 2003 (ES: Vol. 23(3), pp. 557–565)
No significant changes in the party system.
Finland 2007 (ES: Vol. 26(4), pp. 797–803)
No significant changes in the party system.
Finland 2011 (ES: Vol 31(1), pp. 234-238)
No significant changes in the party system.
Germany 2002 (ES: Vol. 23(1), pp. 143–149)
No significant changes in the party system.
Germany 2005 (ES: Vol. 26(1), pp. 223-227)
No significant changes in the party system.
Germany 2009 (ES: Vol. 29(2), pp. 289-292)
No significant changes in the party system.
Great Britain 2005 (ES: Vol. 25(4), pp. 814-820)
No significant changes in the party system.
Greece 2009 (ES: Vol. 29(2), pp. 293–296)
No significant changes in the party system.
Iceland 2003 (EJPR: Vol 43, pp. 1024-2019)
No significant changes in the party system.
Iceland 2009 (ES: Vol. 29(3), pp. 523-526)
The Icelandic movement became a part of the Social Democratic Alliance for the 2009 election, so voters
for Icelandic movement going to SDA are non-switchers.
Ireland 2007 (ES: Vol. 27(1), pp. 151-154)
No significant changes in the party system.
New Zealand 2008 (ES: Vol. 28(3), pp. 507-510)
No significant changes in the party system.
Norway 2001 (ES: Vol. 22(1), pp. 179-185)
No significant changes in the party system.
Norway 2005 (ES: Vol. 26, 1, pp. 219–223)
Although parties ran as possible future coalition-blocks both on left and right, all parties kept running
separately in the election.
Norway 2009 (WEP, Vol 33 (4), pp. 904-912)
No significant changes in the party system.
Poland 2005 (EJPR, Vol 45, pp. 1231-1246)
The Democratic Party is considered a successor party of the Freedom Union. The Polish SocialDemocracy party can furthermore split from the SLD, voters voting for the Polish Social-Democracy
Party in 2005 but previously choosing SLD are therefore considered stable.
Portugal 2002 (EJPR: Vol. 43, pp. 1058-1066)
No significant changes in the party system.
Portugal 2005 (ES: Vol. 26(2), pp. 512-516)
No significant changes in the party system.
Spain 2004 (ES: Vol. 24(1), pp. 149-156)
No significant changes in the party system.
Sweden 2002 (ES: Vol. 22( 4), pp. 778-784)
No significant changes in the party system.
Sweden 2006 (ES: Vol. 26(4), pp. 820-823)
No significant changes in the party system.
Switzerland 2003 (ES: Vol. 24(1), pp. 123-129)
No significant changes in the party system.
Switzerland 2007 (ES: Vol. 27(4), pp. 748-751)
No significant changes in the party system.
The Netherlands 2002 (ES: Vol. 23(3), pp. 551-557)
List Pim Fortuyn (LPF) and Livable Netherlands (LN) can be considered genuinely new parties. Voters
prefering one of these parties in 2002 are considered switchers.
The Netherlands 2006 (ES: Vol. 26(4), pp. 832-837)
No significant changes in the party system.
The Netherlands 2010 (ES: Vol. 30(3), pp. 577-580)
TON (Proud of the Netherlands), led by Rita Verdonck is a split from VVD (Peoples Party for Freedom
and Democracy). Verdonck was formerly a member of VVD, but she was expelled from the party after
losing the race for the leadership of the party against Mark Rutte.
Turkey 2011 (South European Society and Politics: Vol. 17(2), pp. 329-346.
No significant changes in the party system.
Uruguay 2009 (ES: Vol. 29, pp. 171-195).
No significant changes in the party system
Appendix 4. Validity of reported and recalled vote choice questions
A. Overview of error by election and party
CSES – MODULE 2
Australia 2004 election - Recall of 2001 election
Party
Sample 2001
recall
- Liberal Party of Australia
46.9%
- National Party of Australia
3.6%
- Australian Labor Party
36.7%
- Australian Greens
5.6%
- Australian Democrats
3.0%
- One Nation
1.8%
- Family First
Official 2001
result
37.1%
8.7%
37.8%
5.0%
5.4%
4.3%
Sample 2004
report
46.2%
4.5%
36.7%
8.2%
1.0%
0.7%
0.9%
Official 2004
result
40.5%
5.9%
37.6%
7.2%
1.2%
1.2%
2.0%
Official 1999
result
14.3%
Sample 2003
report
15.3%
Official 2003
result
15.4%
9.55%
15.5%
14.91%
14.1%
13.2%
13.3%
9.9%
7.0%
7.0%
2.8%
2.4%
11.6%
3.1%
2.5%
10.2%
10.1%
16.1%
12.8%
13.0%
11.4%
5.9%
8.2%
5.5%
7.4%
1.5%
5.6%
5.4%
0.7%
-
3.1%
2.0%
-
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for official results
Belgium 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
recall
-Flemish Liberals and
13.6%
Democrats
-Flemish Socialist
11.58%
Party/Socialist Party differentSocial Liberal Party
-Flemish Christian Peoples
17.5%
Party/Christian Democrats &
Flemish
-Flemish Block
5.4%
-New Flemish Alliance
-Live Differently (Flemish5.1%
speaking Ecologists)
-Francophone Socialist Party
16.2%
-Liberal Reformist Party9.9%
FrancophoneDemocratic Front
/Reformist Movement
-Francophone Christian Social
8.7%
Party/Humanist Democratic
Centre
-Francophone Ecologists
7.7%
-National Front
0.8%
-People’s Union
2.9%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Bulgaria 2001 – Recall of 1997 election
Party
Sample 1997
recall
- Coalition for Bulgaria
- United Democratic Forces
56.0%
- Movement for Rights and
Freedoms
- National Movement Simeon
the Second
- Coalition: Georgievden,
Inner Macedonian
Revolutionary Organization
- Bulgarian Communist Party
0.2%
- Coalition: Bulgarian Social
28.0%
Democratic Party,
Democratic Left
- Union for National
8.7%
Salvation
- EuroLeft
1.7%
- Bulgarian Business Bloc
1.4%
Official 1997
result
52.3%
Sample 2001
report
14.8%
16.1%
8.0%
Official 2001
result
17.2%
18.2%
7.5%
55.4%
42.7%
5.0%
3.6%
Sample 2002
report
31.0%
Official 2002
result
30.2%
22.2%
19.9%
24.5%
18.5%
1.9%
2.4%
1.1%
1.0%
18.3%
14.3%
1.3%
22.1%
7.6%
5.5%
4.9%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Czech Republic 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election
Party
Sample 1998
Official 1998
recall
result
- Czech Social Democratic
25.5%
32.3%
Party
- Civic Democratic Party
33.5%
27.7%
- Communist Party of the
16.9%
11.0%
Czech Lands and Moravia
- Green Party
- Christian Democratic Union
13.2%
9.0%
+ Czechoslovak People’s
Party
- Freedom Union
5.2%
8.6%
- Rally for the Republic
0.4%
3.9%
- Pensioners for Life
0.2%
3.1%
Reliances
- Democratic Union
0.7%
1.4%
- Miroslav Sladek’s
Republicans
- Koalice
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for official election results
Denmark 2001 election – Recall of 1998 election
Party
Sample 1998
recall
- Social Democrats
37.0%
- Radical left, Social Liberal
5.1%
Party
- Conservative People’s Party
9.5%
- Socialist People’s Party
8.7%
- Christian People-s Party
1.6%
- Left, Liberal Party
27.7%
- Progress Party
- Red-Green Unity List
2.4%
Official 1998
result
35.9%
3.9%
Sample 2001
report
27.6%
5.5%
Official 2001
result
29.1%
5.2%
8.9%
7.6%
2.5%
24.0%
2.7%
9.0%
6.4%
2.1%
34.4%
0.6%
2.7%
9.1%
6.4%
2.3%
31.2%
0.3%
2.4%
Official 1999
result
22.9%
Sample 2003
report
26.4%
Official 2003
result
24.5%
22.4%
21.0%
10.9%
5.1%
22.2%
14.6%
9.2%
8.3%
24.7%
18.6%
9.9%
4.6%
7.3%
4.2%
1.0%
8.4%
7.4%
1.0%
8.0%
5.3%
1.6%
Official 1998
result
40.9%
28.4%
6.7%
6.7%
6.2%
5.1%
Sample 2002
report
39.0%
27.5%
4.4%
11.9%
6.9%
9.0%
Official 2002
result
38.5%
29.5%
9.0%
8.6%
7.4%
4.0%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Finland 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
recall
- Social Democratic Party of
28.5%
Finland
- Center Party
22.0%
- National Coalition Party
18.1%
- Left Alliance
6.7%
- Swedish People’s Party in
8.5%
Finland
- Green League
9.4%
- Christian Democrats
4.7%
- True Finns
0.4%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Germany 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election
Party
Sample 1998
recall
- Social Democratic Party
42.8%
- Christian Democratic Union
26.8%
- Christian Social Union
3.8%
- Alliance 90/Greens
10.7%
- Free Democratic Party
5.5%
- Party of Democratic
9.7%
Socialism
- The Republicans
0.5%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
1.8%
Hungary 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election
Party
Sample 1998
recall
- Alliance for Hungary –
Center Party
- Fidesz – Hungarian Civic
48.3%
Party
- Hungarian Democratic
2.8%
Forum
- Hungarian Justice and Life
1.1%
Party
- Hungarian Socialist Party
36.5%
- Alliance of Free Democrats
4.9%
- Workers Party
2.2%
- Independent Small Holders
4.3%
Party
- Coaliton: Fidesz –
Hungarian Civic Party &
Hungarian Democratic Forum
Official 1998
result
Sample 2002
report
2.9%
Official 2002
result
3.9%
5.5%
2.6%
4.4%
32.9%
7.6%
4.0%
13.1%
46.0%
4.8%
2.2%
42.1%
5.6%
2.2%
41.1%
41.1%
Official 1999
result
26.8%
18.4%
40.7%
9.1%
4.2%
Sample 2003
report
31.6%
18.9%
31.5%
8.4%
7.9%
Official 2003
result
31.0%
17.7%
33.7%
8.8%
7.4%
Official 1997
result
39.3%
28.0%
2.8%
10.4%
4.7%
2.6%
Sample 2002
report
45.8%
21.7%
4.3%
9.3%
3.5%
4.6%
Official 2002
result
41.5%
22.5%
3.9%
10.8%
4.0%
6.5%
29.5%
2.8%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Iceland 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
recall
- Social Alliance Party
24.6%
- Progressive Party
22.9%
- Independence Party
41.6%
- Left-Green Movement
7.5%
- Liberal Party
2.8%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Ireland 2002 election – Recall of 1997 election
Party
Sample 1997
recall
- Fianna Fail
57.3%
- Fine Gael
25.9%
- Green
2.2%
- Labour
9.8%
- Progressive Democrats
2.0%
- Sinn Fein
1.7%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Israel 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
recall
- Likud
30.6%
- Labor (One Israel)
29.4%
- Shinui
2.9%
- Meretz
10.1%
- National Union
2.4%
- Mafdal (NRP)
3.1%
- Yahadut Hatora
4.9%
- Shas
4.0%
- Israel Baaliya
4.3%
- Am Ehad (One Nation)
- Center
1.0%
- Balad
0.7%
- Raam
1.2%
- Chadash
3.2%
- Israel Beytenu
1.0%
Official 1999
result
14.2%
20.3%
5.1%
7.7%
3.0%
4.2%
3.8%
13.0%
5.2%
Sample 2003
report
24.9%
15.0%
15.1%
9.2%
6.2%
3.8%
5.6%
5.9%
1.9%
1.2%
Official 2003
result
29.4%
14.5%
12.3%
5.2%
5.5%
4.2%
4.3%
8.2%
2.2%
1.9%
5.0%
2.0%
3.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.9%
1.4%
3.6%
2.3%
2.1%
3.0%
Official 1998
result
29.0%
18.4%
Sample 2002
report
17.1%
27.8%
Official 2002
result
15.1%
27.9%
24.7%
14.0%
15.4%
9.0%
7.3%
6.3%
9.5%
1.7%
3.9%
0.9%
10.7%
7.7%
5.1%
7.0%
1.7%
2.5%
1.6%
17.0%
5.9%
Source: CSES Module 2 – Electoral Studies election report for election results
The Netherlands 2002 – Recall of 1998 election
Party
Sample 1998
recall
- Labour Party
27.4%
- Christian Democratic
19.6%
Appeal
- People’s Party for Freedom
22.7%
and Democracy
- Democrats 66
11.9%
- Green Left
7.5%
- Political Reformed Party
- Christian Union
- Livable Netherlands
- List Pim Fortuyn
- Socialist Party
4.3%
- GPV
1.8%
- RPF
2.7%
Source: CSES Module 2 – Electoral Studies election report for election results
3.8%
1.2%
2.0%
New Zealand 2002 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
Official 1999
recall
result
- Labour
49.7%
38.7%
- National
24.8%
30.5%
- New Zealand First
9.1%
4.3%
- Act New Zealand
4.6%
7.0%
- Green
4.3%
5.2%
- United Future
- Jim Anderton’s Progressive
Coalition
- Alliance
3.5%
7.7%
- Christian Heritage
- Outdoor Recreation New
Zealand
Sample 2002
report
45.1%
17.6%
10.4%
6.1%
8.0%
7.2%
1.1%
Official 2002
result
41.3%
20.9%
10.4%
7.1%
7.0%
6.7%
1.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
Sample 2001
report
1.3%
14.5%
22.0%
4.3%
13.2%
5.7%
26.3%
10.5%
Official 2001
result
1.2%
12.5%
24.3%
3.9%
12.5%
5.6%
21.2%
14.7%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Norway 2001 – Recall of 1997 election
Party
Sample 1997
recall
- Red Electoral Alliance
1.7%
- Socialist Left Party
8.2%
- Labour Party
31.5%
- Liberal Party
4.8%
- Christian Peoples Party
16.2%
- Center Party
7.0%
- Conservative Party
18.7%
- Progress Party
11.5%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Official 1997
result
1.7%
6.0%
35.0%
4.5%
13.7%
7.9%
14.3%
15.3%
Poland 2001 election – Recall 1997 election
Party
Sample 1997
recall
- Coalition of the Alliance of
the Democratic Left and the
Union of Labor
- Coalition Electoral Action
Solidarity of the Right
- Freedom Union
9.7%
- Self Defence of the Polish
Republic
- Law and Justice
- Polish People’s party
9.1%
- Citizen’s Platform
- League of Polish Families
- Labor Union
4.1%
- National Christian
0.6%
Democratic Bloc for Poland
- National Alliance of Retired
0.4%
of the Republic of Poland
- Coalition Electoral
34.1%
Solidarity
- Alliance of the Democratic
38.3%
Left
- Movement for the
1.7%
Reconstruction of Poland
Official 1997
result
Sample 2001
report
43.6%
Official 2001
result
41.0%
3.9%
5.6%
2.2%
11.4%
3.1%
10.2%
9.5%
8.8%
12.8%
6.8%
9.5%
9.0%
12.7%
7.9%
Official 1999
result
32.3%
44.1%
8.3%
9.0%
Sample 2002
report
40.6%
40.8%
6.8%
8.5%
Official 2002
result
40.2%
37.8%
8.7%
6.9%
2.4%
3.2%
2.7%
Official 2002
result
2.7%
8.7%
6.9%
Sample 2005
report
8.6%
7.1%
8.5%
Official 2005
result
6.4%
7.2%
7.5%
40.2%
37.8%
25.6%
48.8%
28.8%
45.0%
13.4%
5.9%
4.7%
1.4%
2.2%
33.8%
27.1%
5.6%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Portugal 2002 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
recall
- Social Democratic Party
34.5%
- Socialist Party
51.0%
- Popular Party
4.2%
- Unitary Democratic
8.9%
Coalition
- Bloc of the Left
1.4%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Portugal 2005 election – Recall of 2002 election
Party
Sample 2002
recall
- Left Bloc
5.4%
- Popular Party
5.0%
- Unitary Democratic
8.9%
Coalition
- Social Democratic Party
36.1%
- Socialist Party
44.2%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Romania 2004 election – Recall of 2000 election
Party
Sample 2000
recall
- National Alliance: Social
Democratic Party &
Romanian Humanistic Party
- Truth and Justice Alliance:
National Liberal Party &
Democratic Party
- Greater Romania Party
11.8%
- Democratic Alliance of
6.3%
Hungarians in Romania
- Christian Democratic
National Peasants’ Party
- National Liberal Party
9.0%
- Democratic Party
2.6%
- Social Democratic Party
67.0%
- CDR 2000
3.3%
-Alliance for Romania
-National Liberal Party
Campeanu
-Party National Alliance
-New Generation Party
Official 2000
result
19.5%
6.8%
Sample 2004
report
36.7%
Official 2004
result
36.8%
47.3%
31.5%
6.3%
6.2%
13.0%
6.2%
1.4%
1.9%
6.9%
7.0%
36.6%
5.0%
4.1%
1.4%
1.4%
2.2%
Source: CSES Module 2 – Electoral Studies election report for election results.
Slovenia 2004 election – Recall of 2000 election
Party
Sample 2000
recall
- Slovenian Democratic Party
18.5%
- Liberal Democracy of
46.9%
Slovenia
- United List of Social
11.9%
Democrats
- New Slovenia – Christian
5.1%
People’s Party
- Slovenian People’s Party
8.7%
- Slovenian National Party
4.9%
- Democratic Party of
2.1%
Pensioners of Slovenia
- Youth Party of Slovenia
1.9%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Official 2000
result
15.8%
36.3%
Sample 2004
report
34.4%
27.3%
Official 2004
result
29.1%
22.8%
12.1%
11.3%
10.2%
8.6%
6.0%
9.0%
9.6%
4.4%
5.2%
7.3%
6.2%
2.5%
6.8%
6.3%
4.0%
4.3%
0.0%
2.1%
Spain 2004 election – Recall of 2000 election
Party
Sample 2000
recall
- Popular Party
36.3%
- Spanish Socialist Party
45.1%
- United Left
6.5%
- Convergence and Union
3.5%
- Basque Nationalist Party
2.7%
- Canarian Coalition
1.5%
- Republican Left of
1.7%
Catalonia
- Galician Nationalist Bloc
1.0%
Official 2000
result
44.6%
34.1%
5.5%
4.2%
1.5%
1.1%
0.8%
Sample 2004
report
30.5%
53.0%
4.9%
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
2.2%
Official 2004
result
37.6%
42.6%
5.0%
3.2%
1.6%
0.9%
2.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.8%
Official 1998
result
12.0%
36.4%
5.1%
4.7%
22.9%
11.8%
4.5%
Sample 2002
report
9.5%
38.9%
5.0%
18.1%
12.9%
9.0%
6.6%
Official 2002
result
8.4%
39.9%
6.2%
13.4%
15.3%
9.1%
4.6%
Sample 2003
report
15.6%
12.6%
Official 2003
result
17.3%
14.4%
29.9%
23.3%
1.7%
2.3%
23.3%
26.7%
2.2%
2.3%
6.2%
0.3%
1.1%
7.4%
1.0%
1.3%
Sample 2005
report
44.3%
31.3%
20.6%
1.5%
Official 2005
result
35.2%
32.4%
22.0%
1.5%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Sweden 2002 election – Recall of 1998 election
Party
Sample 1998
recall
- Left Party
12.4%
- Social Democrats
39.7%
- Centre Party
5.1%
- People’s Party Liberals
7.1%
- Conservative Party
20.4%
- Christian Democrats
11.4%
- Green Party
3.9%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
Switzerland 2003 election – Recall of 1999 election
Party
Sample 1999
Official 1999
recall
result
- Radical-Democratic Party
20.9%
19.9%
- Christian Democratic
14.1%
15.9%
People’s Party
- Social-Democratic Party
33.5%
22.5%
- Swiss People’s Party
20.4%
22.5%
- Liberal Party
1.7%
2.3%
- Protestant People’s Party
1.9%
1.8%
- Swiss Labor Party
0.6%
1.0%
- Green Party
3.3%
5.0%
- Swiss Democrats Party
0.1%
1.8%
- Federal Democratic Union
0.5%
1.3%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for official results
Great Britain 2005 election – Recall of 2001 election
Party
Sample 2001
Official 2001
recall
result
- Labour
50.1%
40.7%
- Conservative
30.7%
31.7%
- Liberal Democrats
15.4%
18.3%
- Scottish National Party
1.9%
1.8%
Source: CSES Module 2 – ParlGov database for election results
CSES – MODULE 3
Australia 2007 election – Recall of 2004 election
Party
Sample 2004
recall
- Liberal Party
48.6%
- Australian Labor Party
32.2%
- National Party
4.3%
- Greens
7.9%
- Australian Democrats
3.2%
Official 2004
result
40.5%
37.6%
5.9%
7.2%
1.2%
Sample 2007
report
38.5%
45.3%
4.4%
8.1%
Official 2007
result
36.3%
43.4%
5.5%
7.8%
Official 2006
result
36.3%
30.2%
17.5%
10.5%
4.5%
Sample 2008
report
38.7%
26.0%
18.6%
9.2%
6.6%
Official 2008
result
37.7%
26.3%
18.2%
10.0%
6.8%
Official 2003
result
33.9%
8.0%
Sample 2007
report
37.6%
6.6%
Official 2007
result
36.0%
6.7%
3.7%
5.4%
1.6%
3.4%
4.0%
1.8%
1.7%
32.0%
1.5%
30.8%
8.3%
6.4%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Canada 2008 election – Recall of 2006 election
Party
Sample 2006
recall
- Conservative Party
38.9%
- Liberal Party
31.0%
- New Democratic Party
14.9%
- Bloc Québécois
10.3%
- Green Party
4.1%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Croatia 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- Croatian Democratic Union
42.8%
- Croatian People’s party –
6.8%
Liberal Democrats
- Croatian Peasant Party
4.9%
- Croatian Social Liberal Party
3.7%
- Croatian Party of Rights
3.7%
- Croatian Party of Pensioners
3.4%
- Croatian Democratic Alliance
of Slavonia and Baranja
- Istrian Democratic Assembly
- Social Democratic Party of
33.9%
Croatia
- Coalition of Croatian Peasant
Party and Croatian Social
Liberal Party
Source: CSES Module 3 – http://www.parties-and-elections.eu for election results
7.2%
4.1%
6.4%
4.0%
22.6%
Czech Republic 2006 – Recall of 2002 election
Party
Sample 2002
recall
- Balbin Poetic Party
30.4%
- Law and Justice
1.1%
- Civic Democratic Party
- Czech Social Democratic
1.7%
Party
- SNK European Democrats
2.0%
- Green Party
0.1%
- Communist Party of Bohemia
n.a.
and Moravia
- Coalition for the Czech
1.6%
Republic
- Folklore and Society
30.9%
- Christian Democratic Union
14.0%
+ Czechoslovak Peoples’ Party
- Independent Democrats
1.0%
- Party of Equal Chances
9.9%
- Civic Democratic Alliance
2.3%
Official 2002
result
-
Sample 2006
report
Official 2006
result
30.2%
34.9%
28.5%
35.4%
32.3%
2.4%
18.5%
1.6%
9.8%
13.6%
6.3%
12.8%
7.6%
7.2%
12.8%
Sample 2010
report
12.7%
11.0%
Official 2010
result
10.9%
11.3%
32.3%
24.8%
22.1%
2.8%
4.3%
18.1%
3.1%
16.7%
4.4%
2.6%
2.6%
0.3%
19.4%
2.4%
3.7%
1.2%
20.2%
14.3%
2.8%
24.5%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code
Czech Republic 2010 – Recall of 2006 election
Party
Sample 2006
recall
- Public Affairs
- Communist Party of Bohemia
1.7%
and Moravia
- Czech Crown
- Czech Social Democratic
37.9%
Party
- National Prosperity
32.4%
- Party of Citizens RightsZemanites
- TOP 09
- Christian Democratic Union
0.4%
+ Czechoslovak Peoples’ Party
- Right Bloc
4.8%
- Green Party
10.7%
- Sovereignty
- DSSS
5.5%
- Civic Democratic Party
2.5%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Official 2006
result
-
7.2%
6.3%
35.4%
Denmark 2007 election – Recall of 2005 election
Party
Sample 2005
recall
- Social Democrats
22.8%
- Radical left, Social Liberal
9.3%
Party
- Conservative People’s party
7.5%
- Socialist People’s Party
10.1%
- Christian Democrats
1.6%
- Danish People’s Party
10.1%
- Left, Liberal Party
32.2%
- New Alliance
- United List – The Red3.7%
Greens
- Center Democrats
1.1%
Official 2005
result
25.8%
9.2%
Sample 2007
report
22.0%
5.3%
Official 2007
result
25.5%
5.1%
10.3%
6.0%
1.7%
13.3%
29.0%
9.3%
17.4%
1.4%
10.6%
27.4%
3.3%
3.3%
10.4%
13.0%
0.9%
13.9%
26.2%
2.8%
2.2%
Official 2007
result
7.1%
17.9%
Sample 2011
report
4.0%
21.3%
Official 2011
result
3.8%
20.5%
9.9%
27.8%
26.1%
7.1%
22.2%
22.4%
23.5%
2.3%
17.1%
28.6%
23.3%
2.1%
Official 2003
result
24.7%
24.5%
Sample 2007
report
21.1%
21.4%
Official 2007
result
23.1%
21.4%
18.6%
9.9%
8.0%
4.6%
18.8%
8.0%
9.9%
10.5%
22.3%
8.8%
8.5%
4.6%
5.3%
1.6%
5.8%
3.3%
4.9%
4.1%
3.4%
1.0%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Estonia 2011 election – Recall of 2007 election
Party
Sample 2007
recall
- Estonian Greens
6.0%
- Pro Patria and Res Publica
19.3%
Union
- Social Democratic Party
8.0%
- Estonian Reform Party
29.4%
- Estonian Centre Party
28.8%
- Estonian People’s Union
6.6%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Finland 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- Centre Party of Finland
22.3%
- Social Democratic Party of
25.5%
Finland
- National Coalition Party
16.9%
- Left Alliance
7.3%
- Green League
9.1%
- Swedish People’s Party in
11.2%
Finland
- Christian Democrats
5.1%
- True Finns
2.0%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Finland 2011 election – Recall of 2007 election
Party
Sample 2007
recall
- Social Democratic Party of
25.8%
Finland
- Centre Party of Finland
19.1%
- National Coalition Party
19.3%
- Swedish People’s Party in
7.8%
Finland
- Christian Democrats in
3.8%
Finland
- Green League
11.5%
- Left Alliance
8.7%
- True Finns
3.0%
Official 2007
result
21.4%
Sample 2011
report
21.4%
Official 2011
result
19.1%
23.1%
22.3%
4.6%
13.0%
16.5%
7.1%
15.8%
20.4%
4.3%
4.9%
3.9%
4.0%
8.5%
8.8%
4.1%
9.4%
9.1%
18.0%
7.3%
8.1%
19.1%
Official 2002
result
29.5%
9.0%
38.5%
7.4%
8.6%
4.0%
Sample 2005
report
24.0%
4.3%
35.0%
11.5%
9.6%
13.7%
Official 2005
result
27.8%
7.4%
34.2%
9.8%
8.1%
8.7%
1.1%
1.6%
Sample 2009
report
31.4%
3.9%
22.3%
14.3%
10.4%
14.8%
1.0%
0.7%
Official 2009
result
27.3%
6.5%
23.0%
14.6%
10.7%
11.9%
2.0%
1.5%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Germany 2005 election – Recall of 2002 election
Party
Sample 2002
recall
- Christian Democratic Union
24.6%
- Christian Social Union
4.5%
- Social Democratic Party
42.2%
- Free Democratic Alliance
7.6%
- Alliance 90/Greens
12.0%
- Left/Party of Democratic
7.9%
Socialism
- National Democratic Party of
Germany
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Germany 2009 election – Recall of 2005 election
Party
Sample 2005
recall
- Christian Democratic Union
33.4%
- Christian Social Union
4.8%
- Social Democratic Party
32.9%
- Free Democratic Party
8.7%
- Alliance 90/Greens
11.4%
- Left Party
7.2%
- Pirate Party
- National Democratic Party
0.6%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Official 2005
result
27.8%
7.4%
34.2%
9.8%
8.1%
8.7%
1.6%
Greece 2009 election – Recall of 2007 election
Party
Sample 2007
recall
-Pan-Hellenic Socialist
37.2%
Movement
- New Democracy
42.2%
- Communist Party of Greece
7.4%
- Popular Orthodox Rally
2.8%
- Coalition of the Radical Left
8.0%
- Ecologists – Greens
Official 2007
result
38.1%
Sample 2009
report
49.1%
Official 2009
result
43.9%
41.8%
8.2%
3.8%
5.0%
31.2%
7.2%
3.2%
5.1%
2.7%
33.5%
7.5%
5.6%
4.6%
2.5%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Iceland 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- Social Democratic Alliance
27.3%
- Progressive Party
16.0%
- Independence Party
41.8%
- Left Green Movement
11.4%
- Liberal Party
3.2%
Official 2003
result
31.0%
17.7%
33.7%
8.8%
7.4%
Sample 2007
report
27.2%
10.2%
38.8%
16.0%
4.7%
Official 2007
result
26.8%
11.7%
36.6%
14.3%
7.3%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Iceland 2009 election – Recall of 2007 election
Party
Sample 2007
recall
- Social Democratic Alliance
29.5%
- Progressive Party
13.4%
- Independence Party
37.5%
- Left Green Movement
14.6%
- Liberal Party
3.9%
- Civic Movement
Official 2007
result
26.8%
11.7%
36.6%
14.3%
7.3%
Sample 2009
report
30.8%
15.8%
22.2%
21.8%
1.7%
7.1%
Official 2009
result
29.8%
14.8%
23.7%
21.7%
2.2%
7.2%
Official 2002
result
41.5%
22.5%
10.8%
3.9%
4.0%
6.5%
Sample 2007
report
48.2%
27.4%
8.9%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
Official 2007
result
41.6%
27.3%
10.1%
4.7%
2.7%
6.9%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Ireland 2007 election – Recall of 2002 election
Party
Sample 2002
recall
- Fianna Fail
48.2%
- Fine Gael
19.9%
- Labour
10.7%
- Green Party
3.3%
- Progressive Democrats
4.5%
- Sinn Fein
3.3%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Israel 2006 – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- Kadima
- Labor (Avoda)
20.4%
- Likud
45.6%
- Ihud Leumi – Mafdal
6.1%
- Shas
2.5%
- Yahadut Hatora Vehashabbat
2.0%
- Israel Beytenu
- Meretz-Yahad
6.5%
- Gimlaim
- Hadash
2.2%
- Raam-Taal
0.7%
- Balad
0.8%
- Shinuy
8.1%
- Israel Baalia
2.6%
- Am Ehad (One Nation)
0.1%
Official 2003
result
14.5%
29.4%
4.2%
8.2%
4.3%
5.5%
5.2%
3.0%
2.1%
2.3%
12.3%
2.2%
2.8%
Sample 2006
report
28.8%
14.2%
12.5%
7.2%
3.4%
2.2%
11.5%
5.6%
4.1%
3.6%
1.6%
2.3%
Official 2006
result
22.0%
15.1%
9.0%
7.1%
9.5%
4.7%
9.0%
3.8%
5.9%
2.7%
3.0%
2.3%
Sample 2006
report
41.0%
Official 2006
result
34.2%
1.5%
1.0%
4.7%
2.1%
31.5%
25.0%
29.7%
28.9%
Source: CSES Module 3 – Electoral Studies election report for election results
Mexico 2006 – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- National Action Party
39.3%
- Democratic Revolution Party
18.6%
- Institutional Revolutionary
38.1%
Party
- Mexican Green Ecological
0.6%
Party
- Labor Party
1.5%
- Convergencia
0.4%
- New Alliance Party
- Social Democratic and
Peasant Party
- Coalition for the Good of All
- Alliance for Mexico
1.1%
Source: CSES Module 3 – Electoral Studies election report for election results
Official 2003
result
31.8%
18.2%
23.9%
4.1%
2.5%
2.3%
14.0%
Mexico 2009 – Recall of 2006 election
Party
Sample 2006
recall
- Institutional Revolutionary
46.5%
Party
- National Action Party
33.9%
- Democratic Revolution Party
15.4%
- Mexican Green Ecological
1.5%
Party
- Labor Party
0.6%
- New Alliance Party
0.4%
- Convergencia
0.3%
- Partido Social Democrata
0.2%
-Coalition for Good of All
-Alliance for Mexico
Source: CSES Module 3 – Electoral Studies election report for election
Official 2006
result
Sample 2009
report
52.2%
Official 2009
result
36.8%
34.2%
28.3%
11.2%
3.7%
28.0%
12.2%
6.5%
2.5%
1.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.4%
2.4%
Official 2003
result
28.6%
27.3%
17.9%
Sample 2006
report
27.2%
21.2%
14.4%
Official 2006
result
26.5%
21.2%
14.6%
5.1%
6.3%
4.1%
2.1%
1.6%
5.7%
5.0%
17.5%
1.7%
4.3%
1.2%
4.6%
16.6%
2.0%
4.0%
1.6%
1.5%
5.0%
1.8%
5.9%
Official 2006
result
14.6%
Sample 2010
report
21.5%
Official 2010
result
20.5%
21.2%
5.9%
26.5%
16.6%
2.0%
4.6%
4.0%
1.6%
1.8%
19.6%
11.8%
13.0%
11.3%
8.8%
7.2%
3.5%
1.3%
1.1%
19.6%
15.5%
13.6%
9.8%
7.0%
6.7%
3.2%
1.7%
1.3%
4.7%
2.1%
29.7%
28.9%
results
The Netherlands 2006 – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- Christian Democratic Appeal
28.3%
- Labour Party
27.5%
- People’s Party for Freedom
18.0%
and Democracy
- Green Left
5.2%
- Socialist Party
7.5%
- Democrats 66
4.8%
- Christian Union
2.5%
- Political Reformed Party
1.2%
- Pim Fortuyn List
4.3%
- Party for the Animals
- Party for Freedom
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Netherlands 2010 election – Recall of 2006 election
Party
Sample 2006
recall
- People’s Party for Freedom
16.9%
and Democracy
- Labour Party
23.0%
- Party of Freedom
2.8%
- Christian Democratic Appeal
24.2%
- Socialist Party
11.9%
- Democrats 66
8.0%
- Green Left
7.3%
- Christian Union
3.7%
- Political Reformed Party
1.1%
- Party for the Animals
1.8%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
New Zealand 2008 election – Recall of 2005 election
Party
Sample 2005
Official 2005
recall
result
- National Party
35.1%
39.1%
- Labour Party
46.4%
41.1%
- Green Party of Aotearoa New
5.3%
5.3%
Zealand
- New Zealand First
5.3%
5.7%
- Act New Zealand
2.7%
1.5%
- Maori Party
1.3%
2.1%
- Jim Anderton’s progressive
0.3%
1.2%
Party
- United Future
2.5%
2.7%
Sample 2008
report
46.0%
32.3%
6.5%
Official 2008
result
44.9%
34.0%
6.7%
5.2%
3.5%
2.7%
4.1%
3.7%
2.4%
1.0%
0.9%
Official 2001
result
1.2%
12.5%
24.3%
3.9%
12.5%
5.6%
21.2%
14.7%
Sample 2005
report
1.1%
10.4%
33.8%
5.8%
5.4%
7.7%
16.2%
18.5%
Official 2005
result
1.2%
8.8%
32.7%
5.9%
6.8%
6.5%
14.1%
22.1%
Official 2005
result
1.2%
8.8%
32.7%
5.9%
6.8%
6.5%
14.1%
22.1%
Sample 2009
report
1.4%
8.4%
35.0%
4.6%
4.5%
6.5%
20.0%
19.2%
Official 2009
result
1.4%
6.2%
35.4%
3.9%
5.5%
6.2%
17.2%
22.9%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Norway 2005 – Recall of 2001 election
Party
Sample 2001
recall
- Red Electoral Alliance
1.0%
- Socialist Left Party
12.7%
- Labour Party
27.9%
- Liberal Party
4.6%
- Christian Peoples Party
10.3%
- Center Party
6.1%
- Conservative Party
22.4%
- Progress Party
13.7%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Norway 2009 election – Recall of 2005 election
Party
Sample 2005
recall
- Red Electoral Alliance
0.9%
- Socialist Left Party
11.4%
- Labour Party
36.1%
- Liberal Party
6.1%
- Christian Peoples party
5.5%
- Center Party
6.6%
- Conservative party
17.8%
- Progress Party
15.3%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Poland 2005 election – Recall of 2001 election
Party
Sample 2001
recall
- Ruch Patriotyczny
- League of Polish Families
5.6%
- Democratic Party
- Social Democracy of Poland
- Law and Justice
7.0%
- Left Democratic Alliance
41.4%
- Civic Platform
10.4%
- Polish Peasant Party
8.0%
- Platforma Janusza KorwinMikke
- Self-Defence
8.7%
- Freedom Union
8.2%
- Solidarity Electoral Action
9.5%
Official 2001
result
7.9%
9.5%
41.0%
12.7%
9.0%
10.2%
3.1%
5.6%
Sample 2005
report
0.4%
6.8%
1.4%
3.4%
35.3%
9.0%
25.7%
6.3%
1.1%
Official 2005
result
1.1%
8.0%
2.5%
3.9%
27.0%
11.3%
24.1%
7.0%
1.6%
9.7%
11.4%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Poland 2007 election – Recall of 2005 election
Party
Sample 2005
recall
- League of Polish Families
n.a.
- Social Democracy of Poland
3.2%
- Law and Justice
n.a.
- Left Democratic Alliance
1.1%
- Civic Platform
45.7%
- Mniejszosc Niemiecka
11.1%
- Polish Peasant Party
29.1%
- Left and Democrats
- Ruch Patriotyczny
4.2%
- Self-Defense of the Republic
n.a.
- Polish National Party
5.5%
-Democratic Party
n.a.
-Platform of Janusz Korwinn.a.
Mikke
Official 2005
result
8.0%
3.9%
27.0%
11.3%
24.1%
7.0%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code
1.1%
11.4%
2.5%
1.6%
Sample 2007
report
1.2%
Official 2007
result
1.3%
29.2%
32.1%
51.7%
0.2%
7.8%
8.5%
41.5%
0.7%
1.5%
8.9%
13.2%
Slovakia 2010 election – Recall of 2006 election
Party
Sample 2006
recall
- Communist Party of Slovakia
1.2%
- Christian Democratic
9.2%
Movement
- People’s Party – Movement
4.1%
for a Democratic Slovakia
- People’s Party – Our
Slovakia
- Most Hid
- Freedom and Solidarity
- Slovak Democratic and
18.1%
Christian Union
- Slovak National Party
4.3%
- Direction –Social Democracy
49.7%
- Party of the Democratic Left
- Party of the Hungarian
10.9%
Coalition
- Alliance of the New Citizen
0.8%
Official 2006
result
3.9%
8.3%
Sample 2010
report
Official 2010
result
10.4%
8.5%
8.8%
1.8%
4.3%
0.3%
1.3%
9.6%
8.2%
16.9%
8.1%
12.1%
15.4%
2.7%
44.1%
1.3%
2.7%
5.1%
34.8%
2.4%
4.3%
Official 2004
result
4.0%
Sample 2008
report
6.5%
Official 2008
result
7.5%
22.8%
5.1%
5.2%
6.8%
4.6%
5.2%
6.3%
29.1%
10.2%
7.7%
22.5%
41.4%
9.3%
5.4%
29.3%
30.5%
9.4%
18.4%
11.7%
29.1%
11.7%
1.4%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Slovenia 2008 election – Recall of 2004 election
Party
Sample 2004
recall
- Democratic Party of
4.7%
Pensioners of Slovenia
- Liberal Democracy of
22.2%
Slovenia
- Slovenian People’s
n.a.
Party/Youth Party of Slovenia
- Slovenian National Party
7.1%
- Slovenian Democratic Party
41.9%
- Social Democrats
n.a.
- For Real-New Politics Party
- New Slovenia – Christian
2.1%
People’s Party
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code
9.0%
Sweden 2006 election – Recall of 2002 election
Party
Sample 2002
recall
- Left Party
7.8%
- Social Democrats
44.7%
- Centre Party
6.2%
- People’s Party Liberals
11.5%
- Conservative Party
17.2%
- Christian Democrats
6.5%
- Green Party
4.5%
- Sweden Democrats
1.1%
Official 2002
result
8.4%
39.9%
6.2%
13.4%
15.3%
9.1%
4.6%
1.4%
Sample 2006
report
5.8%
35.7%
7.1%
7.1%
26.3%
6.8%
6.1%
2.3%
Official 2006
result
5.8%
35.2%
7.9%
7.5%
26.1%
6.6%
5.2%
2.9%
Official 2003
result
17.3%
14.4%
Sample 2007
report
18.2%
16.8%
Official 2007
result
15.8%
14.5%
23.3%
26.7%
2.2%
2.3%
7.4%
1.3%
23.0%
26.3%
1.1%
1.7%
9.5%
0.4%
19.5%
28.9%
1.9%
2.4%
9.6%
1.3%
Official 2007
result
46.6%
Sample 2011
report
62.0%
Official 2011
result
49.8%
20.9%
14.3%
5.2%
21.8%
8.2%
6.2%
26.0%
13.0%
6.6%
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Switzerland 2007 election – Recall of 2003 election
Party
Sample 2003
recall
- Radical-Democratic Party
21.9%
- Christian Democratic
16.8%
People’s Party
- Social Democratic Party
28.7%
- People’s Party
22.6%
- Liberal Party
1.4%
- Protestant People’s Party
1.7%
- Swiss Green Party
4.3%
- Federal Democratic Union of
0.6%
Switzerland
Source: CSES Module 3 – ParlGov database for election results
Turkey 2011 election – Recall of 2007 election
Party
Sample 2007
recall
- Justice and Development
62.1%
Party
- Republican People’s Party
21.7%
- Nationalist Movement Party
8.3%
- Peace and Democracy Party
n.a.
Source: CSES Module 3 – Parties and Elections in Europe database for election results. n.a. = no respondents with this party code.
Uruguay 2009 election – Recall 2004 election
Party
Sample 2004
recall
- National Party
29.0%
- Colorado Party
12.0%
- Broad Front
56.9%
- Independent Party
1.6%
Official 2004
result
35.1%
10.6%
51.7%
1.9%
Sample 2009
report
26.3%
13.5%
57.5%
1.9%
Official 2009
result
29.9%
17.5%
49.3%
2.6%
Source: CSES Module 3 – Adam Carr’s website (http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/uruguay/uruguay20043.txt) and Corte Electoral
(http://elecciones.corteelectoral.gub.uy/20091025/SSPMain.asp)
B. Procedure for excluding election samples
In a first step, we take the information from the recalled vote and compare how the election sample recalls
to have voted in the previous election with the actual vote shares each of the parties obtained in that
election (see A. Overview of error by election and party). We hence assess how much the recalled vote –
when aggregated for the full election sample – differs from the election results in the previous election. In
a second step, we used this information to decide on the ‘quality’ of the recall, by only retaining those
election samples for which no single party’s vote share differed more than 7.5 percentage point from its
actual vote share in the previous election. We furthermore added those election samples for which the
recall was over 7.5 percentage points off but for which an error of this size is in line with a ‘normal’ bias
in the reported vote share in the election sample. To this end, we compared the recall error with the error
in the vote share of the current election for that same party (if the party ran in the current election as well).
If the recall error was reasonably close to the ‘normal’ error (we take 5 percentage points as a cut-off), that
election sample was retained for the analyses.
The election samples retained are marked in bold in the Table below. This overview clarifies that the
process of cross-validation has mainly served to filter out those election samples in which there were large
inconsistencies between the reported voting behavior and the official election results.
Table Appendix 4B. Election samples.
Election
The Netherlands (2006)
Canada (2008)
Estonia (2011)
Iceland (2009)
The Netherlands (2002)
Greece (2009)
Sweden (2002)
Norway (2005)
Denmark (2001)
Denmark (2007)
Norway (2001)
Finland (2011)
Iceland (2003)
Germany (2002)
Sweden (2006)
Germany (2005)
Poland (2005)
New Zealand (2008)
Switzerland (2007)
Finland (2003)
Germany (2009)
Belgium (2003)
The Netherlands (2010)
Uruguay (2009)
Portugal (2005)
Finland (2007)
Ireland (2007)
Czech Republic (2002)
Norway (2009)
Portugal (2002)
Australia (2007)
Iceland (2007)
Great Britain (2005)
Australia (2004)
Bulgaria (2001)
Slovenia (2004)
New Zealand (2002)
Largest recall error
1.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3
3.3
3.6
3.7
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.6
6
6
6.1
6.4
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9
8.1
8.1
9.4
9.8
9.8
10.6
11
‘Normal’ error for
this party
|Recall error 'normal' error|
2.2
2.2
9.1
5.7
2.1
4.5
3.8
5.9
5.9
0.3
4.1
7.7
6.1
7.2
Table Appendix 4B (2). Election samples (continued)
Election
Spain (2004)
Switzerland (2003)
Poland (2001)
Croatia (2007)
Slovenia (2008)
Mexico (2006)
Turkey (2011)
Israel (2006)
Israel (2003)
Ireland (2002)
Hungary (2002)
Slovakia (2010)
Poland (2007)
Romania (2004)
Czech Republic (2006)
Czech Republic (2010)
Mexico (2009)
n.a.: party did not run in the current election.
Largest recall error
11
11
11.2
11.3
12.8
14.2
15.5
16.2
16.4
18
18.8
20.6
27
30.4
30.4
32.9
46.5
‘Normal’ error for
this party
10.4
6.6
n.a.
1.2
6.8
n.a.
12.2
3.5
4.5
4.3
n.a.
9.3
10.2
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
15.4
|Recall error 'normal' error|
0.6
4.4
10.1
6
3.3
12.7
11.9
13.7
11.3
16.8
31.1
Appendix 5. Main models with control variables added (only two contrasts shown)
Model I
Switched parties
Abstained vs.
vs. loyal
loyal
Individual level
Constant
Like-dislike of party
previously voted for
Satisfaction with
democracy
Closeness to a party
Age
Female
College education
Political knowledge
Contextual level
ENEP
Compulsory voting
Polarisation
Disproportionality
Cross level interaction
Like-dislike of party
previously voted for *
ENEP
N observations
N elections
σ2 election-switching
σ2 election-abstaining
σ2 like-dislike election-switching
σ2 like-dislike election-abstaining
Bayesian DIC
Model II
Switched parties
Abstained vs.
vs. loyal
loyal
3.530***
(0.476)
-4.929***
(0.090)
-0.068
(0.060)
-0.673***
(0.033)
-0.010***
(0.001)
0.086**
(0.032)
0.215***
(0.035)
0.001
(0.018)
0.206
(0.599)
-3.497***
(0.136)
-0.564***
(0.098)
-0.718***
(0.060)
-0.025***
(0.002)
-0.060
(0.054)
-0.385***
(0.064)
-0.367***
(0.031)
2.237***
(0.172)
-4.347***
(0.315)
-0.066
(0.060)
-0.645***
(0.034)
-0.011***
(0.001)
0.095***
(0.031)
0.219***
(0.037)
0.000
(0.017)
-2.813***
(0.281)
-2.096***
(0.351)
-0.539***
(0.105)
-0.715***
(0.060)
-0.024***
(0.002)
-0.053
(0.055)
-0.379***
(0.065)
-0.368***
(0.030)
0.172***
(0.043)
0.294
(0.394)
-0.175***
(0.057)
-0.081*
(0.034)
0.298***
(0.082)
-0.713
(0.567)
0.110
(0.194)
0.155***
(0.045)
0.409***
(0.058)
0.169
(0.307)
-0.054
(0.034)
-0.048*
(0.023)
0.551***
(0.071)
-0.652
(0.578)
0.677***
(0.105)
0.159***
(0.041)
-0.223***
(0.052)
-0.377***
(0.046)
27,685
30
0.281
0.655
35,778.82
27,685
30
2.341
1.382
2.969
-1.365
35,466.65
Entries are unstandardized coefficients of a multinomial multilevel logit model, estimated via runmlwin in Stata. MCMC estimation.
Significance levels: * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.
i
http://aceproject.org/ero-en/regions/europe/EE/estonia-elections-assessment-mission-report/view