Area
Electorate %
Obama support
Romney support
City pop > 500,000
11%
69%
29%
City 50,000 < pop
<499,999
21%
58%
40%
Suburbs
47%
48%
50%
Small town
8%
42%
56%
Rural
14%
37%
61%
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The north-east has become the Democrat capital
2012, Democrats won every north-eastern state
South now supports the Republicans- only place in
1996 that Clinton/ Gore lost, despite being
themselves southerners
In 2008, Obama flipped 3 southern states, but lost
North Carolina in 2012
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The south is relatively rural; Republican policy is to
subsidise farming
Urban areas are likely to be more liberal due to wider
exposure to different groups, hence more likely to
vote Democrat
Also, coastline areas are more likely to receive
immigrants, hence are more likely to vote Democrat
Vote as you shoot
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In 10/11 last elections, the party that won the suburbs
won the election (exception is 2012)
The north east is shrinking in population size relative
to the others and as such, the effect of democrat
support is falling
In 7/8 last elections the North east has given the
Democrat party the largest proportion of the vote.
 Start: The Democratic dominance of the South
originated in many white Southerners' hostility
towards the Republican Party's stance in favour of
political rights for blacks.
Tilden won 68% in
Mississippi, 60% in
Alabama, and 72% in
Georgia
1876
Candidates: Rutherford Hayes (R) vs Samuel Tilden (D)
Electoral College Votes: 185 for Hayes, 184 for Tilden
Popular vote: 47.9% for Hayes, 50.9% for Tilden
Parker won
91% in
Mississippi,
73.35% in
Alabama, and
63.72% in
Georgia
1904
Candidates: Theodore Roosevelt (R) vs Alton Parker (D)
Electoral College Vote: 336 for Roosevelt, 140 for Parker
Popular vote: 56.4% for Roosevelt, 37.6% for Parker
La Follette won home state
of Wisconsin
1924
Davis won
89.34% in
Mississippi,
67.81% in
Alabama, and
73.96% in
Georgia
Candidates: Calvin Coolidge (R) vs John Davis (D) vs Robert La Follette (Progressive)
Electoral College Votes: 382 for Coolidge, 136 for Davis, 13 for La Follette
Popular Vote: 54% for Coolidge, 28.8% for Davis, 16.6% for La Follette
FDR 3rd term. Popularity of
New Deal?
1944
FDR got 93.56%
of the vote in
Mississippi,
81.28% in
Alabama, and
81.74% in
Georgia
Candidates: FDR (D) vs Thomas Dewey (R)
Electoral vote: 432 for FDR, 99 for Dewey
Popular vote: 53.4% for FDR, 45.9% for Dewey
Eisenhower ended Korean War.
Nation was prosperous
1956
Candidates: Dwight Eisenhower (R) vs Adlai Stevenson (D)
Electoral College Vote: 457 for Eisenhower, 73 for Stevenson
Popular Vote: 57.4% for Eisenhower, 42% for Stevenson
JFK + Johnson were trying to get rid of racial segregation.
Goldwater unpopular within his own party. Realignment of southern states.
Break-up of Solid South
1964
Candidates: Lyndon Johnson vs Barry Goldwater
Electoral College Votes: 486 for Johnson, 52 for Goldwater
Popular Vote: 61.1% for Johnson, 38.5% for Goldwater
 Beginning in about 1948, the national Democratic
Party's support of the civil rights
movement significantly reduced Southern support for
the Democratic Party and allowed the Republican
Party to make gains in the South.
By Dan and George
 1980-2012 – Never gave less than 83% support to the
Democrats.
 The Afro-American community has been solid in its
support for Democratic party candidate since the
passage of civil rights legislation in 1964 – “Greater
Society” legislation.
 African-Americans identify with the Democratic
party’s more liberal positions on racial desegregation,
affirmative action and welfare provision.
 In 2000, the Democrats got 91% of the Afro-American
vote.
 In 2004 this fell to 89%.
 They accounted for 11% of the total turnout in 2004.
 95% voted for the first ever Afro-American
presidential candidate, Barack Hussain Obama.
 They accounted for 13% of the turnout
 More Black women (7% of turnout) voted then men
(5% of turnout)
 93% voted for Obama.
 Accounted for 13% of the total turnout.
 Black women accounted for 8%, an increase of 1%.
 87% of Black men voted for Obama, a fall of 8% from
2008.
 96% of black women voted for Obama, the same as in
2008.
 Without them Obama would’ve lost in 2008 and 2012.
 Be replaced as the leading minority by 2016
(Hispanics)
By Robert, William and Alex
Age
Proportion of
Electorate (%)
Voted for
Obama (%)
Voted for
McCain (%)
18-29
18
66
32
30-44
29
52
46
45-64
37
50
49
65+
16
45
53
Age
Proportion of
Electorate (%)
Voted for
Obama (%)
Voted for
Romney (%)
18-29
19
60
37
30-44
27
52
45
45-64
38
47
51
65+
16
44
56
 The younger people are the more likely they are to
vote for the Democrat candidate 18-29 had the more
people vote Obama in both 2008 and 2012
 The Older they are the more likely they will vote for
the Republican candidate, in both 2008 and 2012 in
the 65+ category had the most voting for either
McCain or Romney
 Although 56% of 65+s voted for Romney this actually




only made up 8.96% of the overall vote
60% of 18-29 year olds who voted Obama actually only
represent 13.5% of the vote
Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr. however saw the
majority vote of Democrats between 1980-1992
Since 1996 and Clinton the majority of youth(18-29)
have voted for the Democrat candidate
In 2004 W.Bush received 45% of youth vote. John
Kerry got 54%
 Although more 18-29s will more likely vote
Republican people over 60 are more likely to
actually turn out to vote
 Younger voters are more democrat because they
are likely to benefit from bigger government and
welfare reforms
 Older voters would prefer the Republican party
because they are going to keep government smaller
and taxes lower, protecting the money the voters
have earned during their life
 Voters become more cynical
 In the Tea Party the average age for the movement is


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
45
The average age in the Occupy movement was 33 but
had a large range from early 20s to 40s leading to the
middle ground for the average
There is however a very large age diversity in both
In the Republican party the average age of the
members was aged 50-58
In the Democrat party
Manoj and Dom
•
•
•
•
•
Under $30,000.
$50,000-$99,999.
$100,000-$199,999.
$200,000-$249,999.
Over $250,000.
•
Obama won 67% and 55% of
the low income groups
(Under $30,000 and $50,000$99,999).
•
Surprisingly Democrats won
the two highest categories by
52%.
•
McCain only gained a
majority in the $100,000$199,999.
•
This may be due to his RINO
status.
•
•
•
Again Obama won the
low income groups by
63% and 57%.
Romney won all other
income groups above
$100,000.
Possibly due to
conservative voters
protesting Obamacare.
•
•
•
•
Income gap is narrowing, compared to the New
Deal days especially.
1988- Republicans won the highest income group
by 25% and the Democrats won the lowest by 25%.
Democrats have closed the gap to 13% in the top
bracket.
Bottom bracket has widened to 28% in the
Democrats favor.
•
•
•
•
•
High income groups are naturally
conservative.
Obamacare.
Wal-Mart/beer vote for Obama.
Closing income gap between the top and
bottom.
Democrats winning a much higher
proportion of the high income groups.
•
•
•
•
Lower income groups make up 41% of the
electorate.
This is a much higher percentage compared to
the New Deal days.
Means that the Republicans must appeal to
lower income groups.
Democrats won 47% of the $200,000$249,999 group.
 The 2008 United States presidential election exit poll indicates that
whites making under $50,000 gave Senator John McCain 51% of the
vote compared to the 56% of the vote he obtained with whites making
over $50,000.
 Pew Research Center’s analysis of the 2012 United States presidential
election exit poll indicates that 82% of Hispanics making less than
$50,000 a year voted Democratic, compared with 59% of Hispanics
making more than $50,000 a year.
 There is a loose correlation, however many have argued that in fact
income does not have an effect on this particular Hispanic partisanship
and is down to other factors such as the racial background of the
candidate(According to studies Hispanics more likely to vote for a
Latino candidate).
 Also, Republican-leaning Hispanics generally put high trust in the
government relative to other Republicans. Additionally, they have a
more “American” identity relative to other Hispanics and are more
educated.
 Cuban-Americans + Venezuelan-Americans tend to




vote Republican
Mexican-Americans (64% of Hispanics) + Puerto
Ricans tend to vote Democrat
In 2011 67% Hispanics said they were Democrat, only
20% said they were Republican
Two main criteria for Latino voters are jobs and then
immigration
These are met by policies introduced by the
Democrats such as the Dream Act which was
introduced in senate in 2011
 2000 Bush increased Republican share of
Hispanic votes from 20% in 1996 to 31% and then
to 43% by 2004
 But in 2008 it then fell to 31% and then 27% by
2012
 2012 Democrats won 71% of Hispanic vote.
Election
Democrats
Republican
2000
62%
35%
2004
53%
44%
2008
67%
31%
2012
71%
27%
 1 in 9 voters in 2012 election were Hispanic
 Obama and Romney appeared in two hour-long
interviews with the dominant Spanish Language
broadcaster
 Population has increased by 23% since 2000
 Three key swing states Colorado, Nevada and Florida
have high Latino populations which the Democrats
can rely on
 2010 - 16% of population
 Hispanics are large proportion of the young
population which are not yet of voting age so Hispanic
vote will become even more important in the future
 It is believed that one of Romney’s major failure in
2012 was that he failed to appoint Marco Rubio as VP
nominee
 There is a significant gender gap in US
politics which has been evident since the
1980 election
 Women have been generally Democrat
whilst men have been more Republican
 Trends suggest that turnout of women is
greater than men
 Republican party’s association with pro-life
policies and ‘family values’ have alienated
women.
 Disproportionate representation of women
in low-income occupations
 Democrats support values which women
support such as: lower defence spending,
opposing capital punishment, pro-choice
abortion policy
 2012:
 % of total vote: 53% women 47% men
 55% women voted Obama, 44% Romney
 52% men voted Romney, 45% Obama
 Romney: Gaffes such as ‘binders full of women’ were detrimental
 2008:
 53% women 47% men
 56% women voted Obama, 43% McCain
 49% men voted Obama, 48% McCain
 1980:
 48% women 52% men
 46% women voted Reagan, 45% Carter
 54% men voted Reagan, 37% Carter
 Higher turnout of women + more support for
Democrats from women = large advantage for the
Democrat party
 2008: Obama had a 14 percentage point advantage
among women against McCain
 2012: 12 percentage point advantage against Romney
By Tom, Alasdair and Dan
%
Obama
Romney
% of total vote
More than once a
week
36
62
29
Once a week
41
48
25
A few times a
month
55
78
2
A few times a year
56
30
2
Never
62
26
12
%
Obama
Romney
% of total vote
Protestant
37
62
29
Catholic
50
48
25
Mormon
21
78
2
Jewish
69
30
2
None
70
26
12
%
Obama
Romney
% of total vote
White Evangelical
21
78
26
All others
60
37
74
 70% of Americans take a candidate’s religion into
consideration before voting
 30% of Americans would be less likely to vote for a
candidate with strongly expressed religious
convictions
 21% of Americans said that the impact of their vote
depended entirely on the religion of the candidate
 Religious minorities, like ethnic minorities, are more
likely to vote in support of Obama and the Democrats
because of their more pluralist approach to policy
 Some religious minorities feel detached from the
Republican party’s strong Christian core, explaining
why 85% of Muslims voted Obama in 2012
 Evangelical Christian groups will support the
Republicans because of their staunch set of Christian
values
 Catholics as a whole were almost evenly divided
between Obama and Romney, in part due to the
Hispanic vote
 6/10 people who attend religious services at least once
a week voted Romney, indicating more orthodox
worshippers support the Republicans
 70% voted Obama whilst 26% voted Romney
 Secular Democrats
 Don’t subscribe to any Religious values, which are
what Republican attitudes on gay marriage, abortion
and Christianity are based on
 This also explains why Republicans have a higher
share of the Orthodox religious vote
 Determines how many people vote and the outlook of
parties
 Obama’s victory speech in 2012 was “in the name of
God”
 Fiscally conservative atheists more likely to vote
Democrat due to the heavy religious influence of the
Republican party
 Views of the religious institution have heavy
influence on their members
 The polarisation of different groups means that only
some are effectively represented
 Get out the vote drives given greater significance, as
parties have grounded support