Lobster marketing strategy Issues and options Presentation to Lobster Council of Canada Charlottetown, July 6, 2010 By Gardner Pinfold Revenue Management Limited Market Research Associates Why we are here… Gain common understanding of situation factors affecting industry performance Discuss marketing strategy opportunities and actions Examine marketability constraints challenges and options Identify next steps in the process what, how, when, where Overall industry objectives Build value throughout the value chain • Produce for highest valued markets & market segments • Extract greater share of final product value The industry picture: not pretty Revenue down by $200 million since 2006 Lobster supply up by 25% since 2003 US$ worth 40% less in 2010 vs. 2002 Global recession drives down lobster prices Wholesale prices down by 40% since 2003 Shore prices down by 35% since 2003 Industry engaged mainly in opportunistic selling Lobster has become price-volume business Industry working on narrow to negative margins Industry revenues down 20% Atlantic Canada lobster industry revenues: 2000-2009 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000 CAN$ 800,000,000 Total Live Processed 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Statistics Canada Supply up 25% since 2003 Canada and U.S. lobster landings, 1990-2009 120,000 100,000 tonnes 80,000 U.S. Canada Total 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Source: NMFS; DFO Foreign currency worth less Value of foreign currencies vs. Canadian dollar (1997-100) 1.40 1.20 1997=100 1.00 US EU Japan UK S. Korea 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: Bank of Canada U.S. $ down 40% since 2003 Export price of live lobster to U.S. 12.00 10.00 6.00 CAN$/lb US$/lb 4.00 2.00 20 09 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 0.00 20 02 $/lb 8.00 Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce and Bank of Canada Prices reflect currency shifts Lobster shore prices - Canada & U.S. (Can $) 7.00 6.00 $/lb 5.00 NS NB PEI Maine 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: DFO, NMFS Harvester revenue 70-75% of export price 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 U.S. wholesale price Shipper/distributor revenue Harvester revenue 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 CDN$/lb for 1.25 lb lobster Harvester & shipper shares of U.S. wholesale price Prepared by Gardner Pinfold Source: DFO and Urner Barry Harvesters share rises as industry revenue drops Harvester & processor shares of U.S. wholesale price 25.00 CAN$/lb wt avg for tail/CKL meat pack U.S. wholesale price Distributor gross margin 20.00 Processor gross margin 15.00 10.00 Processor cost (shore price adjusted for 37% yield) 5.00 Shore price 0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: DFO, Urner Barry, Bank of Canada, Industry Price sensitive to supply Canada and U.S. lobster supply & price, 2007-2009 18,000 14.00 12.00 Price (right axis) 14,000 10.00 Supply (left axis) 12,000 10,000 8.00 8,000 6.00 6,000 U.S. $/lb tonnes of market lobster 16,000 4.00 4,000 2.00 2,000 0 0.00 Jan May Sep Jan U.S. May Canada Sep Jan U.S. wholesale May Sep Source: DFO, NMFS, Urner Barry Export value to US declines Canada live lobster exports to U.S. 450,000,000 CDN $ 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 Canada frozen lobster exports to U.S. CDN $ 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Key markets retreat from live Canada live lobster exports by country (excl U.S.) 25,000,000 Belgium Korea, South France Japan Hong Kong Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Germany Italy China United Arab Emirates Sweden Denmark 20,000,000 CDN $ 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Statistics Canada Wide fluctuations in frozen markets Canada frozen lobster exports by country (excl U.S.) 30,000,000 25,000,000 Japan France United Kingdom Germany Spain Italy Belgium Korea, South Sweden Hong Kong China Netherlands CDN $ 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Statistics Canada Industry structure: wasteful & destructive competition Competitive fishing - excessive capacity/race to maximize catch/short season/gluts/poor quality Port market - industry structure guarantees uniform shore price regardless of quantity & quality Insecure supply - induces investment in capacity to meet seasonal peaks and volume-driven pricing to maximize capacity utilization. Difficult to plan when supply unstable & price unknown Industry fragmentation - shippers/processors lack market power/knowledge and bargain away margins to larger and more powerful distributors/customers Selling not marketing - many companies diminish the value of the product by selling opportunistically out of desperation. Very few have the size and resources to market effectively. Salmon: consolidation moves industry from volume to market driven Global farmed salmon production and price trends, 1990-2010 9.00 1,600 8.00 1,400 7.00 6.00 $U.S./kg 1,000 5.00 800 4.00 600 3.00 400 2.00 200 1.00 0.00 Jan-90 thousands of tonnes 1,200 0 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Tonnes Jan-02 $U.S./kg Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Source: FAO and IMF Summary of Industry Strengths and Opportunities for Creating and Extracting Value Resource Plentiful resource = dependable supply. Effective resource management by DFO ensures dependable supply. Canada dominates the world supply of lobster – the world superpower of lobster The inherent quality of the resource has the potential to support higher prices/margins. Seasonal alignment with Maine maintains price and volumes Image Lobster continues to have a premium food image among consumers despite low price cues Canada has a positive image among international markets. International image of US is less positive Transport New Gateway refrigerated cargo facility is the largest north of Miami, and sits next to a runway to fill a void in the Atlantic Canada supply chain. Aqualife seafreight is a transportation option that addresses carbon footprint issues and freight cost. Effectiveness and competitiveness remain to be determined Location Proximity to large US market – offers existing market regions that are familiar with lobster and new markets for development Access to US is easier than other countries: no tariffs, same language and business environment Innovation PEI Processors are working with a product development expert to identify new products PEI government is funding product development and process efficiencies for that province. This could form the basis for inter-provincial diffusion of innovation to assist the Atlantic industry if cooperation can be developed. Exposure Selling activity increased in 2009 to decrease inventories. Low prices increased exposure to the product for more consumers Barriers to Creating and Extracting Value Economy Recent and current recession fear is influencing purchasing and spending at all levels of the value chain Exchange rates have declined relative to the Canadian dollar, stripping value out of exports Conserver economies such as the emerging middle class in China have savings rates of 38% low incomes and no social safety net , while consumer economies such as the US have savings rates of 3.6% but are not spending on luxury items due to a focus on basics Existing Markets Destructive internal competition is placing Canada at an extreme disadvantage in existing markets which now know that they can wait for a lower price Low prices of Canadian lobster products displayed beside lobster from other countries, such as South America and Australia, position Canadian product as lower quality Over-reliance on US market - more diversification needed to spread risk and create opportunity Emerging Markets China prefers to control the purchase, so will be focused on achieving low prices. This places Canada in the position of committing/diverting supply to a lower margin, volume opportunity There is a long time frame to develop consumption in the emerging middle class in these markets due to low incomes, entrenched traditions and lack of distribution systems. Competition China is a low cost lobster processor that is flooding the EU with low priced product. Against these products, Canada can expect to struggle without a clear image for quality. Low quality popsicles in the EU and low prices in Japan due to Canadians undercutting each other are positioning Canada at a POS disadvantage. Maine is aggressively promoting its lobster domestically and internationally. Maine lobster is known internationally. Maine will attain MSC before Canada. This will provide a quality cue that will further compete with Canada France is creating an interdisciplinary coalition of supply chain participants to supermarkets to generate more value for the industry and a marketing campaign around Buy Local’ and quality local product Australia is actively focusing on quality branding and supply management to build demand and to support prices. Canada is not perceived to be promoting itself sufficiently – the greater focus is on price vs quality Barriers to Creating and Extracting Value Consumers Middle income consumers are highly price –sensitive, with high unemployment and are trading down to lower priced food items. Food security is a dominant concern which reduces demand for ‘luxury’ foods Local foods movements are creating a preference for foods caught or produced locally – support for local producers as well as low carbon footprint and traceability/transparency are evident. Food Service Celebrity chefs in the US are rejecting Canadian seafood due to misinformation about the seal hunt. This issue has also arisen in the UK. The raw lobster format is too expensive despite labor and storage advantages Chefs see frozen lobster as lower quality than live/fresh - taste difference and image difference Live lobster is time consuming, labor intensive and space – consuming. Mortality and shrink contribute to high margins on lobster menus. Aversion to shrink has caused potentially unsafe cooking of deads in both retail and food service Issues among food service staff with killing lobsters Retail Focus on margin growth vs volume - retail buyers are rewarded for increasing the margins - the related loss of volume/revenue is picked up elsewhere in the store. Consolidation increases their power to set prices to a fragmented lobster industry A greater focus on buying direct is causing underutilized importers to buy for re-export, with less emphasis on quality or origin. Supermarket lobster is being used as a loss leader which entrenches a low price point - several instances where lobster is sold for less than cost during promotions French packaging legislation is becoming more stringent with focused nutritional labeling on the front of the package and a minimum 3MM font = changes to current packaging. There is also expected to be an extension of allergy labeling+ place of origin+ major ingredients. Possible CO2 environmental labeling data (package content, goods and impact on natural resources through lifecycle to recycling). ADEME calculations of CO2 footprints include GHG emissions at various stages currently CO2 labeling is voluntary. Issue is that CO2 footprint can vary through seasons and storage Barriers to Creating and Extracting Value Government Canadian governments are reluctant to propose changes, given disparate interests and the belief that change needs to be initiated by industry. DFO takes narrow view: Industry=harvesting. Many industry participants believe the industry needs external regulation to create change. Creates a leadership vacuum and a potential stalemate to moving forward. The value of funding for trade missions and initiatives with uncertain or unequal benefit are areas of disagreement within the industry. Logistics Despite proximity to Halifax International Airport, Air Canada is not perceived as helpful to exporters in Canada and their foreign importers regarding scheduling, pricing or handling Flight times out of Logan Airport (Boston) are more accommodating to the needs of food service suppliers who frequently need emergency shipments later in the day. FedEx rates have almost doubled in the past 5 years and schedules are not flexible for emergency shipments. Pick-up from FedEx requires that all other shipments be loaded onto their trucks before lobster can be accessed, later in the morning of the following day. Trucking lobster to USA airports requires extra time in transit as well as the time to season the lobster in water before loading them for air transit. Quality issues are a factor with the need to go through the US Air freight rates in the US are lower than in Canada Industry Issues A few large firms have the budgets to open markets and invest in product development and process development that raise the level of the industry. But, unequal cost structures cause the market leaders to be undermined, followed by the subsequent undermining of the Canadian industry in markets that force prices down due to low cost operators that enable this behavior. The Canadian industry is fragmented creating a weakened and unbalanced trading position with powerful, consolidated customers. Low barriers to entry make make industry consolidation difficult. Effects of fragmentation make the needed cooperation and collaboration difficult due to lack of trust, destructive competition that competes away the long term value for the industry, the perception that autonomy = control , quality inconsistencies. Fragmentation, distrust and insecurity generate weakness and poor decision-making. “Panic to buy and panic to sell” forces prices to the bottom. Inability to plan The industry believes it doesn’t have the ability to lead change due to real and perceived resistance to change. Barriers to Creating and Extracting Value Industry Issues Currently, an estimated 10-15% of global buyers are quality buyers. This leaves 85%-90% of buyers who are looking for the lowest price and are undermining the opportunity for higher margin sales. This erodes the focus on quality at each level of the value chain Skepticism about the value of generic marketing Variable provincial regulations and practices generate an uneven playing field A price-setting mechanism will only be successful if all provinces agree to participate and a critical mass of participants is required. Uneven relationship with DFO - industry definition focuses on harvesting; fails to recognize and address constraints imposed on shippers and processors Succession and exit strategies at all levels are uncertain Access to capital is constrained due to industry instability. Reinvestment capability minimal due to low margins Lack of industry confidence in the inherent value of the resource = low resistance to privateer pricing and trade demands. Volume-driven trumps value-driven decision making. Lack of timely information entrenches the habit of looking backwards for guidance = a backward looking supplydriven industry vs a forward looking, market-driven industry where pre-sell enables market and industry planning, and improved cost/operating controls Low barriers to entry into processing and shipping serve to reduce the value of businesses. Consolidation for greater power is undermined by new entrants, who may have previously caused industry damage through low balling price - no consequences for irresponsible actions Unpredictable quality in Fall fishery – issues with quality consistency within the resource and among products Early adoption of eco-certification and traceability are an opportunity to build an image of proactivity as these will be required to enter and remain in markets, but the Canadian lobster industry’s lack of a collective commitment, confusion and conflicting views, positions the Canadian industry as a follower vs a leader. ‘Supply-security’ with accounts receivable by shippers and processors, and cash sales on the wharf add costs and negative competition. Loyalty sells for 10 cents a pound - unstable basis for building a sustainable business model Barriers to Creating and Extracting Value Shippers Inability to provide a timely price to customers - lost business is the result based on customer interviews The industry norm of matching the price generated by one buyer who may be buying low volume - the lack of confidence to refuse to match- fear of being ‘cut off’. No guarantee of supply=can’t invest in equipment, build markets, when there is no assurance of product. Processors Inability to provide a timely price to customers - lost business results based on customer interviews The industry norm of matching the price generated by one buyer who may be buying low volume - the lack of confidence to refuse to match - fear of being ‘cut off’. No guarantee of supply=can’t invest in equipment, build markets, when there is no assurance of product. Increased labour costs resulting from having to process ‘gluts’ and associated low quality, crisis processing (e.g double freezing) in order to manage the volume Fear that growth and increased margins will attract competition reinforces survival tactics vs strategic planning. Low margins prevent reinvestment in innovation, product development and process efficiencies Rigorous food and plant safety standards are costly…but necessary Buyers Low barriers to entry into the industry as buyers and inconsistent entry criteria across provinces Not all buyers are aware of the market’s ability or inability to support prices - causing unsustainable price points and perceptions of collusion to keep prices low when shippers and processors are subsequently forced to match prices to access supply Harvesters Unaware they are capturing the largest part of the export price Holding lobster, to await higher prices, in water that is too warm reduces quality and price potential. Strong resistance to the subject of supply management prevents consideration of the subject. Lack of understanding of supply/demand dynamics. New season gluts have a downward impact on the value of the full season Harvesters who are investing in quality are paid the same as harvesters who are not investing in quality reduces incentive to be quality-focused and to make investments in quality practices MARKETING STRATEGY INDUSTRY MARKET- ABILITY Strategic Options Status Quo Marketing Only Balanced System Marketing 6 P’s Marketability RACE Market Focus Retain • Fragmentation • Lack of Control • Inability to Extract Value for the Industry • Develop New Markets • Branding for Recognition • Generic Marketing for Demand • Uncertain basis for supporting brand claims and demand • Ability to Support and Sustain Demand • Ability to Extract More Value for the Industry Where Are We on the Marketing Ladder? STRATEGIC MARKETING FOCUS =Globalization increases competition 6Ps - people, product, price, place/channels, place/markets, positioning CUSTOMER FOCUS =More competition - The customer has a choice. How can WE be that choice? 5Ps- people, product, price place, positioning/promotion SALES FOCUS = volume is the measure of success 4 p’s = product, price, place and promotion PRODUCTION FOCUS= sell what you have What Challenges Is Marketing Facing Today? Consumer shift driven by necessity Consumers are looking for ways to trade down without losing quality Consumers are trading out of fresh and moving to frozen or canned Consumers seeking value by • Buying less per trip • Buying more frequently • Seeking deals/coupons/promotions Consumers are buying select items to stock up on specials Consumers are changing retail formats Consumers are visiting restaurants less and supermarkets more QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Source: Perishables Group 2009 Consumer Shifts Occur Over Time and Geographically Demographic Boom: 1946-1964 population explosion in Western world, increases consumption needs and potential Cultural Effect: 1970-2000=more freedom of choice, more consumption, more options among more people=more demand Environmental Attitude Shift: 2000s, consideration of consumption effects=greater discrimination Consumption Shifts: late 2000s, more meaning, more discrimination re consumption in NA and EU (BUY LESS,BUY BETTER) Economicdemographic shifts in China and India: 2000s, emerging middle –class, more consumption, similar to Western world 10-40 years ago (BUY MORE, BUY DIFFERENT Global Economic Recession; late 2000s, new normal and new normalizer for all countries (BUY LESS, BUY HIGHER VALUE) There will be a need to BALANCE emerging Consumer economies with existing Conserver economies Marketing Objective: Balancing the Moving Parts That Connect the Industry and the Market MARKETING STRATEGY Generate Stability Demand Price Competition Cooperation Supply Quality Manage Consistency INDUSTRY MARKETABILITY The Impacts of Unbalanced Marketing and Market-ability AUSTRALIAN MARKETING STRATEGY INDUSTRY MARKETABILITY MAINE MARKETING STRATEGY INDUSTRY MARKETABILITY CANADIAN MARKETING STRATEGY INDUSTRY MARKETABILITY Australia focuses on branding and supply management Australian tails sell for $45.99 pound in USA and Japan Maine lobster is actively branded and meat is selling at $29.99/pound in USA. But lack of consistency in India, for example, has eroded their position. Domestic strength and export weakness. Canadian lobster is selling in Japan lower than wholesale. EU markets wait for lowest prices to be offered. US says Canada is the world lobster Superpower……….. Marketing Strategy Building Blocks People Strategy Place/Markets Strategy Product Strategy Positioning Strategy Place/Channels Strategy Pricing Strategy Marketing is a System of Strategic Decisions and Priorities Marketing Options People Strategy Place/Markets Strategy % Effort on Rescue v New Development Markets Affluent 10% x 4+/year (premium, lower price Sensitivity) Middle Class Mainstream X 1/year (price/commodity buyers, high price sensitivity ) Product Strategy % Existing v Emerging Markets Logistics Value Chain Control % Retail v Food Service Multi-channeling Pricing Strategy Quality Grading Long term v short term thinking % Same v New Innovation v Invention Canners v Markets % Live v Frozen v Prepared Positioning & Communication Strategy Place/Channels Strategy % Marketing for a Premium v Selling for Volume Relational v Transactional Selling Price maker v price taker status Messages •Canada Brand •Generic • Health •Portion Sizes •Convenience •News Media •Social/digital •Print. •Electronic •POS •Packaging Targets •Industry •Trade • Consumers Effective Marketing Strategy starts with Market-Ability INDUSTRY MARKET-ABILITY POSITIONING PEOPLE PRICE PRODUCT PLACE/CHANNELS PLACE/MARKETS Marketing Actions= RACE Actions that answer the Question: What do we need to DO differently to leverage strengths, minimize weaknesses, create opportunities and eliminate barriers? REDUCE •Redirect •Decrease •Minimize ADD •Expand • Increase • Enhance Weaknesses Strengths CREATE ELIMINATE •Re-create • Remove •Develop New • Stop •Start • Terminate Opportunities Barriers Putting It All Together Reduce Add d d d Create Eliminate Weaknesses Strengths Opportunities Barriers People Positioning Price Product Place /Channels Place /Markets People •Harvesters •Buyers •Processors •Shippers •Customers •Consumers Positioning Reduce Weaknesses Add to Strengths Create Opportunities Eliminate Barriers Narrow the focus on the struggling middle class target market – the low price, low margin market Increase focus on High $ Target Market to take the focus off price as a barrier. Create effective and transparent industry information dissemination channels (vertical and horizontal) to support understanding, trust and cooperation. Eliminate negative perceptions that undermine trust (such as conspiracy theories) with transparency Create generic consumer – focused marketing, to generate demand for quality that ‘pulls’ quality through the industry from wharf to shelf (Pull marketing) Eliminate Canada’s country/supplier anonymity with a clear commitment to traceability Focus on informing all harvesters about costs in the industry beyond the wharf and the connection between controlling consistency of quality and supply, in order to build stability of price and demand Reduce opportunities for misinformed news issues, such as sealing, that arise in the absence of alternative imagery and knowledge of Canada. Reverse the slide into commodity status with a quality focus Reduce the current quantity focus that defines the Canadian lobster sales model Add a strong quality focus that will redefine the Canadian position and product in the marketplace Add Quality options- Canada Gold and Silver (aspirational and accessible), to clarify the difference between price points and to position for quality pricing Add new communication channels (social media) to introduce and support branding. Create a compelling value proposition that drives more consumers to ask for and about quality distinctions Create an ‘open for business’ climate in the industry Eliminate inconsistent lobster handling practices with education Price Reduce Weaknesses Add to Strengths Create Opportunities Eliminate Barriers Reduce focus on transactional, low margin volume selling, Increase relational selling, marketing for a premium. throughout the supply chain This is a focus on increasing margins to enable reinvestment and build a sustainable ROI Build and implement a pricesetting mechanism focused on quality, stability, efficiency and unity. Eliminate price-taker status, Price Matching Undercutting, Counter-productive competition, Short term focus Reduce price volatility which causes retailers and food service to de-list Increase speed of price provision to buyers to increase capacity to plan Product Reduce supply to support higher prices and rebuild from commodity status – then manage supply to the markets developed . Reduce the supply of low quality products that are negative cues for processed. Reduce the tendency to oversupply a product that ‘works’ to avoid flooding Reduce the incidence of inconsistent quality product from Canada that sets the stage for low pricing. Match processing capacity to the catch through consolidation (reduces OH and labor supply costs) Include an industry- minimum price mechanism as a base for incremental quality to incent harvesters to uniform quality practices. Increase consumer exposure with new lobster products to increase choice and frequency. Build an innovation vs invention focus - collaborate on value added formats to diversify risks and costs. Increase the distinction between canners and markets to create two clear products and price points, and to leverage that Canners are uniquely Canadian- smaller, good quality and taste. Focus on both in-shell product development, and meat products, such as claws /knuckles. Work with McCains or other value-added companies to develop the next ‘chicken wing’ product using lobster Create a live and processed product deployment plan that aligns with market goals •Less live to existing markets to increase price • divert live to new markets to generate interest (Asia) •develop processed, convenience formats for existing markets already familiar with lobster Eliminate product –origin confusion with packaging and live product markings. Eliminate gluts that affect prices through out the season, increase costs and threaten quality Eliminate competitive fishing that drives up harvesting costs and results in unpredictable supply Place /Channels Place /Markets Reduce Weaknesses Add to Strengths Create Opportunities Eliminate Barriers Reduce reliance on powerful buyers by expanding the customer network Add new value chain strategies to increase control, generate new growth areas and options for extracting more value : Digital channels Value chain control, workarounds Multi—channeling Commit to disciplined cooperation to create a dominant market presence consistent with Canada’s dominant supply status. Eliminate channel weakness resulting from industry fragmentation and negative competition Add emerging markets Focus on selected markets to build depth Temporarily redirect supply from low value markets to rebuild quality image and demand Add new regions in existing markets (second tier) for a balanced market portfolio Another term for this is ‘connected autonomy’ that recognizes separate entities working together on selected initiatives Eliminate jumping from market to market Where To Start? Marketing Options People Strategy Place/Markets Strategy % Effort on Rescue v New Development Markets Affluent 10% x 4+/year (premium, lower price Sensitivity) Middle Class Mainstream X 1/year (price/commodity buyers, high price sensitivity ) Product Strategy % Existing v Emerging Markets Logistics Value Chain Control % Retail v Food Service Multi-channeling Pricing Strategy Quality Grading Long term v short term thinking % Same v New Products Innovation v Invention Canners v Markets % Live v Frozen v Prepared Positioning & Communication Strategy Place/Channels Strategy % Marketing for a Premium v Selling for Volume Relational v Transactional Selling Price maker v price taker status Messages •Canada Brand •Generic • Health •Portion Sizes •Convenience •News Media •Social/digital •Print. •Electronic •POS •Packaging Targets •Industry •Trade • Consumers Barrier #1 - nothing that matters is predictable Supply • Size, timing and quality of landings are unknown and impossible to predict with current management • Competitive fishing creates pressure to maximize catch leading to short seasons, gluts, poor quality • Shippers/processors have no supply security; difficult to develop production plans to respond to customer needs Price • Shore price set after season starts reflects market power of distributors & customers • Industry structure results in race to the top at the wharf and race to the bottom in the market • Price rules in the market because lobster is a commodity and players are volume sellers Barrier #2: Industry structure creates/reinforces Barrier #1 Harvesting: excess capacity & competitive fishing result in high volumes & short seasons Shipping: ease of entry intensifies shore competition & nullifies effectiveness of price to influence quality & quantity Processing: over-capacity creates pressure to cover overheads, driving volume buying and forcing up shore prices Shippers and processors: volume-driven sellers prone to undercutting to meet cash flow needs Volume focus intensifies competitive environment and undermines investment in market development Industry fragmentation: many sellers with volume focus and limited knowledge mean distributors and customers rule the market and extract the value Where to start? Marketability is the foundation of marketing Barrier 1 options Barrier 2 options Supply (quantity/quality) • Lower trap limits • Trip limits • Quotas (IQ) • Fleet rationalization (ITQ) • Adjust season (quality) Price (shore) • Negotiate (CB) • Arbitrate (FO) • Collaborate • Formula (PM) • Auction Harvesting capacity: provide fleets with the tools to adjust Shipping: develop/impose stringent quality standards. Regulate entry. Processing: eliminate all direct & indirect financial support to plants. Restrict entry. Industry fragmentation: allow vertical integration; provide a basis for consolidation; collaborative/joint marketing to limit destructive competition. Do nothing: let the Barrier 1 options take effect.