Thai Tai Vietnamese Subs Business Plan Michelle Coupal Michelle Kraft Alan Sklapsky Stephen Yong Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 3 2.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Mission Statement ............................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Corporate Goals .................................................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Industry Overview ................................................................................................................................ 5 2.3.1 Threats .......................................................................................................................................... 5 3.0 Operating Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 6 3.1 Business Structure ........................................................................................................................ 6 3.1.1 Organizational Structure ........................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Permits and Legal Structure ...................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Site Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 6 3.3 Building and Floor Plan ................................................................................................................. 7 3.3.1 Store Front ................................................................................................................................ 7 3.3.2 Production Area......................................................................................................................... 7 3.4 Work Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 7 3.5 Health and Safety .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.6 Business Day/Week/Month/Year .................................................................................................. 8 3.7 Sourcing Materials ............................................................................................................................... 9 3.8 Performance Metrics ........................................................................................................................... 9 3.8 Inventory Management ...................................................................................................................... 10 3.8.1 Point of Sale System ...................................................................................................................... 11 4.0 Human Resource Plan .......................................................................................................................... 11 5.0 Marketing Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 12 5.1 Competitive Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 12 5.1.1 Direct Competition ...................................................................................................................... 12 5.1.2 Indirect Competition .................................................................................................................... 12 5.2 Target Market Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 12 5.3 Market Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 13 5.4 Marketing Mix .................................................................................................................................... 13 5.4.1 Product Features ........................................................................................................................ 13 5.4.2 Prototypes ................................................................................................................................... 14 5.4.3 Pricing Policy .............................................................................................................................. 14 5.4.4 Promotion .................................................................................................................................... 14 5.4.5 Distribution Strategy ................................................................................................................... 15 5.5 Sales and Profit Objectives ............................................................................................................... 15 5.6 Marketing Budget .............................................................................................................................. 15 6.0 Financial Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 16 6.2 Financial Structure............................................................................................................................. 16 6.3 Financial Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 16 6.3.1 Critical Variable Analysis ............................................................................................................ 17 7.0 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................... 19 1.0 Executive Summary Introduction The mission of Thai Tai’s is “to serve the city of Saskatoon the most consistent, best-tasting Vietnamese sandwiches at an affordable price using high-quality ingredients”. This will be accomplished by providing quality products and a memorable customer experience. We want to be the nightly food destination of choice in Saskatoon; without the next morning regret. Operations Plan Thai Tai will be a corporation with four equal shareholders, who will also be involved in managing operations. Thai Tai will be located on Broadway Ave. in Saskatoon; it will consist of a walk-in storefront and a production area for the made to order service. The store will be open from 11am – 8:30 pm Monday through Wednesday, and 11am -3 am Thursday to Saturday. The maximum capacity for production will be 180 subs per day. Ingredients and other service providers will be primarily sourced from local suppliers to ensure fresh products and timely delivery. The capital budget will include costs for equipment, including production area, and product displays, totaling approximately $57,000. We plan to use $90,000, including debt and equity, to fund capital budget for the first year to ensure a positive cash flow. Human Resources Plan All four original shareholders will be equally involved in managing operations. Food services workers will be hired to work at minimum wage with management supervising during the peak hours throughout the day (ie: 12-2, 4-7 and late night hours on the weekend). Marketing Thai Tai will have the following sales and profit objectives: To sell an average of 97 submarines per day in Year 1 and to increase to full capacity of 154 subs by Year 5; To achieve a profit margin of 75%; and To sell at an average of $7.50 per unit selling price, increasing at the rate inflation. Competitive Landscape The competitive landscape for Thai Tai includes direct competition (Subway and other fast food alternatives) and indirect competition (other sit down restaurant options in the local area or any late night food substitute). Target Audience and Positioning Statement The target audience is the lunch and late night crowd, along with the weekend shopper. We target those walk-in, passerby customers who will enjoy a healthy alternative with an oriental twist. The Marketing Mix Thai Tai’’s Far East menu will provide many options for customers. To gain market share quickly, the pricing strategy for Thai Tai is to enter the market at a similar cost to the direct competition at approx $7.50 for our average sandwich. This allows an 80% gross profit margin and a mark-up of 500%. Thai Tai will use an awareness campaign to introduce ourselves to the market. The campaign will highlight our unique subs and promote them through various media, including: social media, flyers and word of mouth promotion. Thai Tai will sell direct to customers and will be located on a busy street corner on Broadway Avenue in Nutana, Saskatoon. This location is hip and trendy and will attract many nearby students, workers and shoppers in our target audience. Modeled after similar Vietnamese sandwich shops located in comparable locations in other cities (Vancouver, Calgary, etc) which have been very successful, we believe that our differentiated product will gain a similar following in Saskatoon. Financials The financial structure of Thai Tai is 45% equity and 55% debt. The financial outlook for the company looks good with an internal rate of return (IRR) for the company of 44% and a net present value (NPV) of $206,279. The critical variables that significantly impact IRR are sales growth, cost of sales and sales volume. To realize the IRR, we will have to meet our sales targets and keep tight control over costs. 2.0 Introduction 2.1 Mission Statement Thai Tai’s mission is to: “To serve the city of Saskatoon the most consistent, best-tasting Vietnamese sandwich’s at an affordable price using high-quality ingredients”. 2.2 Corporate Goals We want to be the #1 destination for lunch and late night eating in Saskatoon We will provide customers with a healthy alternative to late night food, without the next day regret Be profitable and expand the business by 2014 2.3 Industry Overview We believe Saskatoon is the ideal location for a Vietnamese sub shop. Saskatoon is a young and vibrant city of 200,000 that grew by 2.8% from 2001-2006 and has a median age of 35.9 years.1 The city has recently experienced an economic boom, which is attracting young and educated workers from across the country to well paying jobs. The median family income is $65,268, indicating that residents have some disposable income.2 We believe this population growth and influx of young people creates a unique opportunity for us to introduce a Vietnamese sub shop. Saskatoon is already home to many unique ethnic restaurants, however, the majority of them are on the west side of Idylwyld Dr, which makes them relatively inaccessible to the lunch and bar crowd. We believe that a Vietnamese sub shop located in the heart of the Broadway entertainment district would provide a fresh and unique experience to the young and adventurous lunch and bar crowd. 2.3.1 Threats The threats to our business would include: Product substitutes (competing restaurants-Subway, Pita Pit, Booster Juice, etc.) Reliance on suppliers for fresh, high quality ingredients Ability to attract committed workers 1 Statistics Canada. “2006 Community Profile-Saskatoon.” Available at http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/censusrecensement/2006/dp-pd/prof/92591/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=4711066&Geo2=PR&Code2=47&Data=Count&SearchText=Saskatoon&Searc hType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&Custom= 2 Ibid. 3.0 Operating Plan 3.1 Business Structure 3.1.1 Organizational Structure Thai Tai will have a flat organizational structure,, with four partners sharing all managerial responsibilities. We will hire part-time, minimum waged employees to handle orders during busy hours (lunch and late night). 3.1.2 Permits and Legal Structure Prior to opening the restaurant, we will contact the Saskatoon Health Region to arrange for an inspection of the food preparation facilities and to obtain a provincial health license. We will need several permits to operate Thai Tai. The permit process can be long and drawn out, so we would start the process as soon as possible. The location, 801 Broadway Ave., is already zoned for commercial business, so we would not have to obtain zoning permits. We would have to obtain the following permits: Department of Health permits (including fire inspection) Plumbing and building permits (if required) Sign permit (for outdoor and sandwich board signs) Vendor’s licence (to collect PST) Saskatoon business licence (commercial business licence costs $95) In addition to these permits, we would need to register the business name with the province and register with the Workers’ Compensation Board and Occupational Health & Safety. Federally, we would have to obtain a federal business number, employer business number and a GST number. Corporate status was selected as the legal structure to enhance access to capital, take advantage of the income tax deferrals available to new and growing businesses and to ensure protection against any liabilities that may occur. 3.2 Site Plan Thai Tai has chosen the trendy Broadway area in Saskatoon as the future site of the store. The exact address for the store will be at 801 Broadway Avenue, crossroads of Broadways Avenue and 10th Street. This choice was made for several reasons: 1) Access to parking. Parking will be available in front of the store, across the street and parallel to the site and around surrounding side streets. 3.3 2) Deliveries will be easily accessible into the restaurant via the back alley entrance. The back entrance will lead the hallway before the kitchen. This alley will easily accommodate any delivery trucks and vans and will make the ease of transferring supplies to and from vehicle to store effortless and easy. 3) This site is centrally located in the Broadway entertainment district. It is a popular area for shopping and going to restaurants and pubs. Building and Floor Plan 3.3.1 Store Front Thai Tai will serve walk-in traffic and corporate and private customers who pre-order sandwiches for meetings or events. It is important that the storefront have large, street facing windows to maximize product visibility for passing traffic. The submarines will be made to order as a take away item. As such, customer seating areas will be limited to 8 person capacity waiting area. Canned beverages will be available for purchase along with the sandwiches. Store furnishings and accessories will be based on traditional Vietnamese culture. One washroom will be located in the storefront area. 3.3.2 Production Area The production area will run perpendicular to the entrance way to allow for a flow from sub order to payment. . The production area will be separated into raw and cooked product areas to mitigate contamination concerns. A hand washing sink will be located at the entrance to the production area. A product storage cooler and pantry will be located west end of the production area. Located near the north end is a fridge to store canned drinks. Prepping of all products will be done in the kitchen area, which is located at the rear of the store, out of site from customers. 3.4 Work Plan The most common task assignments will fall under the categories of production or sales and customer experience management. Thai tai’s sub production process will begin with food preparation the prior night so that marinades can sit overnight to achieve the ideal flavour. One hour of prep time before opening will be needed to prepare sandwich ingredients (julienne vegetables, cook meats, etc.). Sandwiches are made to order based on menu items listed below. The remaining processes involve dishwashing, record keeping and general maintenance of the store. The following list of tasks will be completed as part of sales and customer experience management: Providing friendly, prompt and personal service to walk in and pre-order customers Preparing sandwiches and related beverages Storefront and washroom cleaning as necessary Receiving telephone orders for off-peak time events. Two staff members will be required on site to ensure that adequate attention can be paid to customers and production during peak times. 3.5 Health and Safety Health and Safety As a food service company, Thai Tai will be subject to inspections by regional health authority public health officer to determine compliance with The Food Safety Regulations and Standards. As part of maintaining our reputation and health permits, we will all take the Safe Handling of Food course offered by TrainCan. Courses are offered in Saskatoon, so we would take these courses as soon as possible. These courses cost $500/per person. 3.6 Business Day/Week/Month/Year Thai Tai will operate on Monday through to Saturday, closed on Sundays. Store hours will be from 11:00am to 8:30pm Monday to Wednesday, and 11:00 am to 3:00 am Thursday to Saturday. Business Day Shifts will be divided from 10:00am to 3:30pm, 3:30– 8:30pm, and 8:30 pm-3:30 am (Thurs-Sat) Opening shift: Responsibilities include: Prepping fresh vegetables for daily sandwiches, cooking meats, opening store, ensuring adequate supplies and packaging is available. Closing shift: Responsibilities include: Prepping meats for next day production, closing and storing of products in airtight containers, closing and locking the store, cleaning of workstations. Shift premiums will be awarded for working the late night shift. Business Week Inventory of supplies and ingredients Thorough cleaning conducted by in-house staff to ensure all healthy and safety measurements are upheld Meet with suppliers to discuss any improvements or concerns Business Month Monthly management meetings – agenda will include operations, store hours, marketing and finances Future marketing plans – includes any promotions or specials offered to customers Discuss work schedules and shifts Business Year Compile financials for the year Ensure taxes are completed and filed Analyze any popular trends for future strategies in the new year Mitigate risks Evaluate equipment and supplies 3.7 Sourcing Materials We plan to try to source out materials from local providers in order to assure timely and reliable delivery. Since our business is based on providing low cost, high quality subs, we will also choose suppliers who provide high quality ingredients at a reasonable price. We will source meat (chicken, beef, shrimp and pork) from Centennial Food Service, which has a reputation for high quality items and has a location in Saskatoon. Meat shipments will be received twice a week, on Tuesdays and Saturdays. We will obtain our buns from Downey’s Bakery in Sutherland, which has extensive experience providing breads and pastries to many Saskatoon hotels and eateries. Buns will be received every two days to maintain freshness. The vegetables and spices will come from Sysco Foods. These items will be received three times a week (Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday). To ensure we are receiving competitive prices, we will ask existing and potential suppliers to fax quotes for ingredients to us monthly. To ensure quality of ingredients, we will tour the facilities of existing suppliers. 3.8 Performance Metrics We would use several performance metrics, financial and non-financial, to track and measure our restaurant’s performance. These indicators would focus on areas that are critical to our business: cash flow, inventory management and repeat customers. Our POS system will capture sales and cost information that we could use to compare to our budgeted performance. This variance analysis would indicate potential problem areas (ie. menu items with low margins, escalating costs, etc.) and areas of strength (menu items with high margins, stable costs, etc.). Another key performance metric would be repeat customers. We plan on the bulk of our business coming from repeat customers. Our POS system, Maitre’d, would allow tracking of customers through a frequent customer rewards program (buy 10 subs, get 1 free). This program would help promote repeat customers. Inventory turnover would be another important performance metric because it would indicate how well we are managing our inventory. We would monitor this number over time to ensure that it was not increasing because this would increase the risk of inventory spoilage. Since ingredient quality is very important to the success of our business, we would want to ensure we were using the freshest possible ingredients. 3.8 Inventory Management Proper inventory management is key to the quality of our products, so we need to ensure that inventory is managed properly. The restaurant will need fresh ingredients, so deliveries will be made throughout the week. Inventory will be tracked with a perpetual inventory tracking system through the point-of-sale system. To control costs and maintain quality, we will check all deliveries against orders and check supplier prices against quotes. We will make inventory orders that take advantage of quantity breaks without increasing spoilage. This doesn’t make sense here --> Table 5.1 highlights capital requirements needed for the restaurant. Table 5.1 Restaurant Equipment Thai Tai Capital Budget (Source: Restaurant Equipment World) Manufacturer Asset Building Improvements Leasehold Improvements Cooking Equipment Conveyor Oven (2) Meat prep machine Vegetable prep machine Kitchen Appliances Industrial fridge (2) Drink Refrigerator Dish washing station Hand washing system Prep food table Storage stand Kitchen accessories (pans, knives, etc.) Electronic Equipment Point of sale equipment Bookkeeping system Installation costs Total Capital Budget GST Total Expenditures Unit Cost Impact Construction 15,000 Ultra-Max Hobart Lincoln 8,874 3,170 338.50 Delfield Samsung Aero Manufacturing Aero Manufacturing True Manfacturing Advance Tabco Various 7,488 800 1,500 500 2,385 298.08 1,000 2000 IT Solutions Dell 7,000 1,500 5,000 54,853 2,742.67 57,596 Thai Tai will require leasehold improvements of $15,000 to convert the existing location into suitable space for the restaurant. This cost includes demolition, kitchen set up, public washroom renovation and fixtures. We will require the following cooking equipment: two conveyor ovens for toasting subs, a meat prep machine for slicing and preparing meat and a vegetable prep machine for slicing and dicing vegetables. The following kitchen appliances will be required: two industrial fridges for storing perishable inventory, a drink fridge for cooling and storing pop and juice, a commercial dishwasher, a hand washing station, a food prep table for assembling subs, a storage stand for storing dry, non-perishable items and various kitchen accessories (pans, knives, aprons, etc.). The restaurant will also require electronic equipment: a POS system for ringing through sales and capturing sales and cost data and a bookkeeping system to maintain the accounting records. The cost for all of these items is approximately $57,000. 3.8.1 Point of Sale System We have evaluated the existing POS systems and have chosen the Maitre’d system. We believe this system offers the best combination of functionality and flexibility. The system offers: Touch screen printers Scalability (can add other computers as the restaurant grows; can add more restaurant locations) Allows service of more than one customer at a time Comprehensive cost and revenue reporting (high and low margin items for marketing campaigns and menu decisions) Perpetual inventory system based on bar codes Automatic conversion function converts quantity received to quantities used for recipes Recipes can be displayed to help train employees or for customer enquiries Automatically generates shopping lists based on minimum stock quantities E-commerce interface directly with suppliers like Sysco Customer rewards program-tracks points, etc. (buy 10 get 1 free) The main benefit of this system is the interconnectivity between product sales and inventory management. Every time a sale is made, inventory records are automatically updated to reflect the new levels. Inventory reports can be generated quickly and cheaply, which is important is we want to manage inventory effectively to keep costs low and quality high. This system would help minimize inventory spoilage which would help control costs. 4.0 Human Resource Plan During the initial start-up phase our organizational structure will be flat as all four original shareholders will be equally involved in managing operations. Food services workers will be hired to work at minimum wage ($9.50) with management supervising during the peak hours throughout the day (ie: 12-2, 4-7 and late night hours on the weekend). Stephen Yong will be the General Manager based on his background working in numerous Asian food establishments and extensive business background in Saskatoon. Alan Sklapsky will be our Director of Finance responsible for the development of our cash projections, budgeting and financing requirements. Going forward, he will continuously monitor the cash position of the company, analyze budget-to-actual results and be our contact with the bank regarding the capital and working capital financing to be acquired as well as maintaining relationships with equity financers. Michelle Kraft will be our Director of Operations, responsible for purchasing and ensuring that the level of quality and consistency is maintained. Michelle Coupal will be the Marketing Manager in charge of promotional activities and advertising as well as over-seeing human resource requirements. All staff and management will be fully trained to prep and make all sandwiches, open/close the shop and operate the cash register. 5.0 Marketing Plan 5.1 Competitive Analysis 5.1.1 Direct Competition As Thai Tai is the first freshly-made Vietnamese Sandwich shop in Saskatoon, there are currently no direct competitors selling our unique style of subs but the other sub shops and fast food establishments in the city would need to be considered our direct competition. Direct competitors would be fast food establishments in the Broadway business district as well as the downtown core especially during the summer months when the lunch crowd is known to walk across the bridge during the lunch hour. Our most comparable competition Subway is located in numerous locations throughout the city and also on Broadway Avenue as well as other well known fast food franchises Mr. Sub, Pita Pit and Booster Juice. 5.1.2 Indirect Competition Indirect competition comes in the form of all other food establishments in the Broadway area including sitdown restaurants (Broadway Cafe, Nutana Cafe, Christie’s Il Secondi, etc), late night entertainment establishments that serve food (Amigos) and bakeries/cafes (Starbucks, Nutana Bakery) that serve takeaway dining options. The price range for the full-serve restaurants will be higher while the late night and cafe options would likely be comparable and draw some of the lunch/late night market we are targeting. 5.2 Target Market Analysis 1) The Broadway lunch crowd (and downtown business lunch market during the summer) would include employees of businesses in Nutana along Broadway and students at E’cole Victoria, Oskayak High School and Nutana Collegiate (high schools within three blocks of Thai Tai). These groups will be able to walk to Thai Tai over the lunch hour; the business crowd goes out for lunch approx. 3-5 times per week while the students would go out for lunch 1-2 times per week. The business crowd would also make larger 10+ sandwich orders for lunch meetings during the work week. 2) The Broadway area has an active late night entertainment scene that draws from all areas of Saskatoon. To capture this market and serve their desire for cheap, quick and delicious food after a long night of music and dancing, Thai Tai plans to be open Thursday – Saturday nights until 3:00AM. Thai Tai is already perfectly situated in the area surrounded by pubs and late night establishments (Amigo’s Cantina, Yard and Flagon, Vangelis Tavern, Broadway Theatre and The Roxy on Broadway) that are all open until 2:00AM when patrons are then out on the streets looking for the closest, well-lit food establishment that Thai Tai is perfectly situated to capture. 3) Weekend shoppers, festival goers that flock to Broadway as well as those living in the vibrant community of Nutana can be found strolling along Broadway Avenue on any given Saturday right in front of Thai Tai – this crowd will make up the demand for a Saturday opening and will be drawn to Thai Tai through word-of-mouth advertising or our sidewalk board display. Nutana is known as the cultural hotbed of Saskatoon with annual events such as the Broadway Art Encounter (June), Saskatoon Fringe Festival (August), Broadway Street Festival (September) all bring in large crowds of people from outside Nutana to the streets right in front of our location. 5.3 Market Analysis Market Share We expect to attract 5% of our target market, partly due to our trendy location and partly due to our highquality and differentiated subs. Despite the fact that our direct competition is located near us, we believe a product differentiation strategy will work to our advantage – we are selling a product that is new and different; yet similar enough not to scare away our target market. Based on the success of many of the Vietnamese restaurants located in the downtown core (often packed during lunch hours) we believe that the Saskatoon market is ready to embrace Vietnamese subs in a similar fashion. 5.4 Marketing Mix 5.4.1 Product Features Thai Tai offers a fresh, new, Far East taste to the sub market; the location will be decorated with an Asian flair and cater to all ages from the middle-aged business man, the young party-crowd after a long night at Amigos, the high school student using their allowance for lunch or the young family wandering down Broadway with a stroller during the summer. Thai Tai will offer reasonably priced, high quality sub sandwiches. To maintain this offering, we will keep our menu small with menu items that have simple ingredients. A small menu will allow us to maintain consistent and high-quality subs. Menu items with simple ingredients will minimize our inventory costs because we will not have to maintain a wide range of inventory items. Simple ingredients will also facilitate speedy production and increase our flow-through rate. We will offer the following subs: Ultimate sub (spicy) Buddha veggie Oriental cold cuts Pineapple beef Sate beef/chicken/pork rib (spicy) Lemongrass beef/chicken Sate beef onion (spicy) Curry beef/chicken (spicy) Teriyaki chicken Tiger prawn Charbroiled pork Prices will vary between $6 (Buddha veggie) and $8 (Ultimate sub). We will add and remove menu items depending on customer preferences and popularity. 5.4.2 Prototypes Refer to Appendix 2 for sub prototypes 5.4.3 Pricing Policy To gain market share quickly, the pricing strategy for Thai Tai is to enter the market at a similar cost to the direct competition (Subway, Pita Pit, etc) at approx $7.50 for our average sandwich. This allows an 80% gross profit margin, and a mark-up of 500%. 5.4.4 Promotion Thai Tai will use an awareness campaign to introduce ourselves to the market. The campaign will highlight our unique subs and promote them through various media, including: Company website Social media (Facebook, YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, BlogSpot, etc.) Sandwich board displayed outside our store-front to attract walk-by traffic Customer loyalty program – repeat customers will receive 1 free sub after purchasing 10 Coupons for discount subs in the SPC coupon book to gain awareness among highschool/university market (likely makes up a large portion of the late-night crowd we will be targeting) Flyers offering $1 off for a sub to be distributed at the colleges, festivals and late night establishments in the area We will also have promotional materials available at the store including business cards, stationery, brochures and product order forms. After Year 1, we will continue to improve the displays and website, to promote via online social media, to provide product samples and giveaways and to produce marketing materials. We believe word-of-mouth advertising will be our strongest promotion tool. 5.4.5 Distribution Strategy Thai Tai will sell direct to customers and will be located on a busy street corner on Broadway Avenue in Nutana, Saskatoon. This location is hip and trendy, and will attract many nearby students, workers and shoppers in our target audience. Modeled after similar Vietnamese sandwich shops located in comparable locations in other cities (Vancouver, Calgary, etc) which have been very successful we believe that our differentiated product will gain a similar following in Saskatoon. Orders can be placed in person at our convenient location or for large orders over the phone, and can be either picked up or delivered (for an extra charge). Our direct competition also sells via storefront in similar areas and locals although many of our direct competitors do not stay open later and do not attract the late-night market that Thai Tai will cater to. 5.5 Sales and Profit Objectives Thai Tai Vietnamese Subs has the following sales and profit objectives, which are outlined in our financial plan: To sell an average of 97submarines per day in Year 1, and to increase to full capacity of 154 submarines by Year 5; To achieve a profit margin of 75%; and To sell at a $7.50 per unit selling price, increasing at the rate inflation. 5.6 Marketing Budget The promotional initiatives, as discussed in the promotional section, make up the following marketing budget for Thai Tai: Promotional Activities Display Website Year 1 $3,000 $5.000 Yrs 2-5 $0 $0 Flyers Pr.oduct Giveaways Promotional Materials Total Marketing Costs $5,000 $8,000 $3,000 $24,000 $1,000 $8,000 $3,000 $12,000 6.0 Financial Plan 6.2 Financial Structure Thai Tai Sub’s will be financed by approximately 45%equity and 55% by a Canadian Small Business Loan (CSBL). This provides the prospective shareholders with a leveraged return using traditional small business financing. The CSBL has maximum cost of debt of prime plus three percent, and has been incorporated into our financial model. The following is a summary of the financing requirements for Thai Tai’s: Table 6.1: Financing Requirements Financing Requirements Expenditure Debt Capital Expenses 50,277 Forecasted cash shortfall in Year 1 Incorporation Fees Permits and licencses Total financing 50,277 Weight 56% Equity 12,569 20,138 3,000 3,500 39,207 44% 6.3 Financial Analysis The following summary forecasts the operating performance of Thai Tai’s over the next five years: Table 6.2 Summary Income Statement Thai Tai Summary Income Statement For the Year Ended, December 31 Year Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit 2012 243,479 48,097 195,383 2013 268,239 53,964 214,275 2014 322,391 66,052 256,339 2015 371,342 77,479 293,862 2016 390,542 82,980 307,562 Total Operating Expenses Earnings b efore Amortization, Interest, and Taxes CCA Interest Expense Income b efore Taxes Income Taxes - 27% Net Income (Loss) 193,022 2,361 9,186 3,017 (9,842) 189,669 24,606 13,367 2,413 8,826 2,383 6,443 193,426 62,913 10,103 1,810 51,000 13,770 37,230 197,296 96,567 8,030 1,207 87,330 23,579 63,751 201,281 106,281 6,667 603 99,011 26,733 72,278 (9,842) The overall success of Thai Tai’s is based on the company’s ability to exponentially increase demand for the products through word of mouth and targeted advertising. The product’s popularity in the local community is imperative to the long-term success of the company. Appendix 1 demonstrates the estimated sales forecasts based on aggressive sales targets. 6.3.1 Critical Variable Analysis A significant amount of sensitivity analysis has been performed on the financial analysis. It is imperative to note that sales growth is the most significant variable to consider in valuing this company: Table 6.3: Sensitivity Analysis Variable 1 – Sales growth Metric Worst Case – 5% Base Case – 10, 20, 15, 5% Valuation -$21,277 $210,450 Internal Rate of Return 12.7% 46.2% Payback Period > 5 years 3.3 years Best Case – 18% $397,311 44.1% 3.1 years By a significantly bearish scenario of 5% annual growth over the next 5 years, IRR will decrease to 12.7% and will not make Thai Tai’s a reasonable venture. Under the base case scenario, annual sales targets of annual growth of 10, 20, 15, and 5% are not unreasonable. These metrics are based on the success of Thai Tai’s in its original environment, which we believe the operating success can be replicated in Saskatoon. The second variable which was considered significant in the analysis of Thai Tai’s is the change in prices of cost of sales over the forecasted period. There is no doubt that there is a great amount of uncertainty in food prices for the foreseeable future. As such, Thai Tai’s is a fair example of a company that is exposed to a significant risk in the change of food prices. Table 6.4: Sensitivity Analysis Variable 2 – Cost of Sales Metric Worst Case – 4% inflation Base Case – 2% inflation Best Case – 1.5% inflation Valuation Internal Rate of Return Payback Period $190,421 32.2% 3.8 years $210,450 33.6% 3.3 years $215,295 40.0% 3.1 years The estimated gross margin is based on an actual analysis of the inputs in producing the subs and purchasing the drinks. As such, the analysis has been prepared based on the increase of prices over the forecasted period. Under the worst case scenario, Thai Tai’s will still earn a significant IRR of 32.2% which is due to the superior pricing strategy and quality of products that Thai Tai will sell. The last critical variable examined in the forecasts for Thai Tai’s is the company’s exposure to sales volume. As noted in Appendix 1, the expected sales volume for subs is 80 units from Monday to Wednesday, 100 subs for Thursday, and 120 subs for Friday and Saturday. Drinks are projected to be sold for every second customer, based on the low prices and ease of sale. Metric Table 6.5: Sensitivity Analysis Variable 3 – Sales Volume Worst Case – Expectations Base Case Best Case – Expectation decrease 20% increase 20% Valuation Internal Rate of Return Payback Period -$45,279 11.6% > 5 years $210,450 46.2% 3.3 years $466,179 61.8% 1.3 years Under the worst case of a decrease in expectations by 20%, Thai Tai’s will not earn a favorable return and IRR will decrease to 11.6%. This analysis solidifies the critical point that management of Thai Tai’s must effectively market the product using efficient target marketing and a key focus on product quality. 6.3.2 Break-even Analysis Break-even analysis was performed based on the projected five year NPV of $210,450 at a weight adjusted cost of capital of 15.24%. As shown below, Thai Tai’s projected sales for the five year period are greater than those required for break-even: Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Table 6.6: Break-even Analysis Projected Breakeven 29,967 32,963 39,556 45,489 47,764 31,601 31,490 31,000 30,761 30,977 Margin of Safety (units) (1,634) 1,473 8,556 14,728 16,787 7.0 Appendix Appendix 1: Sales Growth Projections Sales Forecasts Assumptions used: Volume increases Price and Cost Inflation Percentage of drinks sold per sub 10% 20% 15% 5% Day of the Week Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Average Daily sales volume Number of days Estimated Annual Sales - subs Unit sales price Unit cost of sale Total Sales Revenue Total Cost of Sales Gross Margin Gross Margin % Units Sold - Subs 2012 2013 80 88 80 88 80 88 100 110 120 132 120 132 96.67 106.33 310.00 310.00 29,966.67 32,963.33 7.50 7.65 1.48 1.51 224,750.00 247,225.00 44,350.67 49,761.45 180,399.33 197,463.55 80.3% 79.9% 2014 106 106 106 132 158 158 127.60 310.00 39,556.00 7.80 1.54 296,670.00 60,908.01 235,761.99 79.5% 2015 121 121 121 152 182 182 146.74 310.00 45,489.40 7.96 1.57 341,170.50 71,445.10 269,725.40 79.1% 2016 128 128 128 159 191 191 154.08 310.00 47,763.87 8.12 1.60 358,229.03 76,517.70 281,711.32 78.6% Day of the Week Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Average Daily sales volume Number of days Estimated Annual Sales - drinks Unit sales price Unit cost of sale Total Sales Revenue Total Cost of Sales Gross Margin Gross Margin % Units Sold - Drinks 2012 2013 40 44 40 44 40 44 50 55 60 66 60 66 48.33 53.17 310.00 310.00 14,983.33 16,481.67 1.25 1.28 0.25 0.26 18,729.17 21,014.13 3,745.83 4,202.83 14,983.33 16,811.30 80.0% 80.0% 2% 50% 2014 53 53 53 66 79 79 63.80 310.00 19,778.00 1.30 0.26 25,721.29 5,144.26 20,577.03 80.0% 2015 61 61 61 76 91 91 73.37 310.00 22,744.70 1.33 0.27 30,171.07 6,034.21 24,136.86 80.0% 2016 64 64 64 80 96 96 77.04 310.00 23,881.94 1.35 0.27 32,313.22 6,462.64 25,850.57 80.0% Appendix 2:Prototypes Satay Chicken Sub Ultimate Sub