ENERGY
Draft Assessment of Residential
and Commercial Technical and
Economic Potential
PG&E Electric
September 28, 2011
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
D I S P U T E S & I N V E S T I G AT I O N S • E C O N O M I C S • F I N A N C I A L A D V I S O RY • M A N A G E M E N T C O N S U LT I N G
Agenda
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
1
ENERGY
Agenda
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
2
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Measures Included in the Modeling

Categorized into 4 Groups

High Impact Measures (HIMs)
o
Among the top measures, in terms of historical energy saving achievement

Measures of Interest (MOIs)
o
Measures that are not currently HIMs, but are considered candidates to be HIMs in the future

Secondary Measures
o
Measures historically offered by the utilities, but which only provide low levels of energy savings

Emerging Technologies
o
Potentially large impact measures seen as likely entering the market place soon
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
3
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Sourcing Measure Characteristics

Characteristics Documented in the Measure Input Characterization Sheets (MICs)

Separate MICS (Measure Input Characterization Sheets) by utility, sector, and fuel type

Separate MICs for ETs and all other measures

Documentation for the following variables:
o
Measure impact (energy and coincident demand) – Four baselines defined:
•
2007 baseline – primarily Asset 2008 and DEER 2005 values
•
2010 baseline – primarily DEER 2.05 values
•
2013 ex ante values – primarily DEER v3.02 and Utility Work-Papers
•
2013 ex post values – 2006 through 2009 evaluation reports
o
o
o
o
Measure density (the number of technology units per home or per thousand square feet)
Measure cost
Net to Gross Estimates
Decision maker measure awareness and willingness to install
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
4
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Measure Input Characterization Sheets (MICS) Structure

“PG&E Res Elec Inputs Summary”– input sheet for the potential model

“Read Me” tab – explanation of all Measure Inputs in the MICS

“Measure Definitions” tab – high level definition of a measure and savings source

End – Use Tabs show measure specific detail


Tabs organized by DEER measure category

All values used in the MICS are sourced/ calculated and linked
Sample Sheet - PGE Residential MICS
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
5
ENERGY
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
6
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Codes and Standards

Codes and Standards (C&S) impacts on the technologies included in the model by year
starting in 2007

Primary Impact is the Huffman Bill

The following is a list of the C&S included in the residential model (commercial still in
process)
* New refrigerator and freezer standard to reduce energy by 25% - implemented 2014
* Rule issued in 2010 (implemented in 2015) Water Heat Base EF 0.948
* CAC Rule to be issued in 2011 (implemented in 2015) Base SEER 14
* HP rule to be issued in 2011 (implemented in 2014) Base EER 10.8
* Eisa Lighting Improvement for 100W-150W Incandescent equivalent (2012)
* Eisa Lighting Improvement for 75W Incandescent equivalent 2013)
* Eisa Lighting Improvement for 40W and 60W Incandescent equivalent (2014)
* Window Code
* Insulation Code
* Room A/C
* HVAC Controls
* T-8 Lighting
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
7
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Codes and Standards Key Impact Years
Codes and Standards Adjustments - As Modeled
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* New refrigerator and freezer standard to reduce energy by 25% - implemented 2014
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
* Rule issued in 2010 (implemented in 2015) Water Heat Base EF 0.948
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
* CAC Rule to be issued in 2011 (implemented in 2015) Base SEER 14
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
* HP rule to be issued in 2011 (implemented in 2014) Base EER 10.8
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.91
* Eisa Lighting Improvement for 100W-150W Incandescent equivalent (2012)
1.00
0.94
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.00
* Eisa Lighting Improvement for 75W Incandescent equivalent 2013)
1.00
0.93
0.93
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.00
* Eisa Lighting Improvement for 40W and 60W Incandescent equivalent (2014)
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.00
* Window Code
1.00
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.89
* Insulation Code
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
* Room A/C
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
* HVAC Controls
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.88
0.88
0.88
* T-8 Lighting
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
8
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Codes and Standards As Percent of Total Technical Potential – PG&E
Residential
Codes & Standards as % of Total Technical Potential- Energy
% of Total Technical Potential
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2021 2022 2023 2024
Technical Potential
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
9
ENERGY
Track 1 Issues
Codes and Standards by Year – PG&E Residential (GWh)
Codes & Standards Impact - Energy
6,000
GWh
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Technical Potential
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
10
ENERGY
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
11
ENERGY
Analysis Staging
PG&E Utility Area - Electricity: Medium Residential Sector Scenario
Scenario Inputs/Switches
Scenario
Medium
(Medium, High, or Low)
Use Ex Ante (1) or Ex Post (2) Impacts?
2
(Ex Ante = 1 Ex Post = 2)
Have Net-to-Gross Set to 1.0 (1) or Measure Level Set (2) (see Mea-In
Tab)
2
(NTG 1.0 = 1, NTG Column "AR" of "Mea-In" sheet = 2)
(NTG affects savings but does not affect technology, incentive, or admin costs)
Base Incentive (as Percent of incremental cost)
50%
(this sets calibrated payback response)
Scenario Incentive (as Percent of incremental cost)
50%
(scenario first year is fixed to base incentive)
Economic Potential TRC Screen Value
0.80
Willingness * Awareness Maximum
0.90
Include Emerging Technologies?
1
Measure Reparticipation (between 0.0-1.0)
0.85
Located in column "D" of sheet "Res-Re-Part" if it is desired to change this variable by measure
Decision Curve Beta Value
0.50
Elasticity indicator
Codes and Standards On (1) Off (2)
1
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
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(Yes = 1, No = 2)
(On = 1, Off = 2)
12
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1

Scenario Switches – page 1
Scenario


Based on High, Medium, and Low forecasts of housing/floorstock, energy and demand, and rates from
the 2011 CEC IEPR
Ex Ante or Ex Post and Net to Gross


Ex Post is the primary analysis impact values and evaluation based NTG values the primary NTG but ex
ante assessment as well as NTG=1 are available
Base Incentive and Scenario Incentive


For market potential, the base incentive value is what EERAM calibrates payback to. It is currently set at
50% as that is similar to the base case assumption used in the 2008 Asset assessment. Scenario incentives
can vary from 0% to 100% of incremental cost to assess the impact of changing the incentive levels
Economic Potential TRC screen


A variable that is currently set at 80% but can be modified
Willingness and Awareness Maximum

Baseline decision maker willingness and awareness (W&A) values are primarily taken from the 2008
Asset assessment. EERAM assumes that W&A improves over time with this value being the maximum
for that improvement
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
13
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1

Scenario Switches – page 2
Include Emerging Technologies


A set of emerging technologies is included in EERAM. This is a simple Yes/No switch to include or not
include them in the analysis
Measure Re-Participation


A certain percentage of program participants, at the end of measure life, are assumed to re-participate in a
utility program. This identifies what percentage that is with the remaining population added back to the
non-participant population (able to re-participate later)
Base Incentive and Scenario Incentive


For market potential, the base incentive value is what EERAM calibrates payback to. It is currently set at
50% as that is similar to the base case assumption used in the 2008 Asset assessment. Scenario incentives
can vary from 0% to 100% of incremental cost to assess the impact of changing the incentive levels
Decision Curve Beta Value


This determines participation payback elasticity. A smaller number means lower elasticity and a larger
number the reverse. It is modeled as a variable with the specific value yet to be determined.
Codes and Standards

This is a simple Yes/No switch to include or not include them in the analysis. Turning this switch on/off
helps define the impacts from Codes and Standards
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
14
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Other Key Modeling Elements

Technology Costs can change over time

Non Codes and Standards Technology Impacts can change over time

Administrative costs can change over time

Existing measures use an elasticity based decision maker algorithm to estimate yearly
program participation. Simple payback is the cost element and impacts are calibrated to 2007
utility program achievements.

Emerging Technologies as well as new technologies that have not been part of a utility’s
portfolio in the past use a Bass Diffusion curve to estimate program participation
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
15
ENERGY
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
16
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Residential Technical Potential 2013-2015 - Energy
RESIDENTIAL - Technical Potential by DEER Measure Categories
Energy Potential (MWh)
DEER Measure Categories
Indoor Lighting
Outdoor Lighting
2013
3,710,603
2014
3,727,724
2015
3,746,095
539,408
543,902
548,590
2,314,219
2,192,888
2,252,214
Water Heating
919,083
1,047,215
1,173,797
Laundry
59,211
68,359
33,697
Building Envelope
481,849
480,472
449,896
HVAC
735,636
727,503
702,359
Plug Loads
978,937
989,366
1,000,196
0
0
0
Whole building
80,228
91,984
104,099
Other
32,405
32,762
33,132
Low Income
58,300
58,300
58,300
9,909,878
9,960,475
10,102,375
30.06%
29.88%
29.89%
Appliance
Process
Total
% of Forecast Sales
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
17
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Residential Technical Potential 2013-2015 - Demand
Demand Potential (kW)
DEER Measure Categories
Indoor Lighting
2013
611,785
2014
614,005
2015
616,427
Outdoor Lighting
15,507
15,607
15,711
Appliance
317,544
286,146
294,552
Water Heating
137,692
156,910
176,000
Laundry
0
0
0
Building Envelope
0
0
0
HVAC
908,087
837,245
833,585
Plug Loads
67,376
68,098
68,848
0
0
0
Whole building
74,612
85,546
96,812
Other
9,073
9,173
9,277
Low Income
16,872
16,872
16,872
2,158,549
2,089,602
2,128,085
24.91%
23.84%
23.95%
Process
Total
% of Forecast Sales
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
18
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Residential Technical and Economic Potential as a Percent of Forecast
Sales 2013-2015
Energy Potential as % of Sales Forecast
Demand Potential as % of Demand Forecast
35.0%
25.0%
% of Forecast
% of Forecast
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
10.0%
5.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2013
Technical Potential
2014
2013
2015
Economic Potential
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Technical Potential
2014
2015
Economic Potential
19
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Residential Technical and Economic Potential by DEER Measure
Category 2015- Energy
Technical Energy Potential - 2015
Whole building
1.0%
Process
0.0%
Other
0.3%
Economic Energy Potential - 2015
Low Income
0.6%
Building
Envelope
0.0%
HVAC
7.0%
Other
0.4%
Low
Income
0.0%
Water Heating
13.7%
Indoor Lighting
37.1%
Laundry
0.3%
Whole building
1.2%
Plug Loads
9.4%
Laundry
0.0%
Plug Loads
9.9%
Building Envelope
4.5%
Process
HVAC
0.0%
0.0%
Indoor Lighting
44.6%
Water Heating
11.6%
Appliance
26.8%
Appliance
22.3%
Outdoor Lighting
5.4%
Outdoor Lighting
3.9%
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
20
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Top Ten Measures Residential Technical and Economic Potential
2015 - Energy
Rank
Measure
Technical Potential
Measure
Economic Potential
1
Recycle refrigerator
1,674,642
Recycle refrigerator
1,674,642
2
Heat Pump Water Heaters
1,153,322
Heat Pump Water Heaters
1,153,322
3
Specialty CFLs
949,863
Specialty CFLs
949,863
4
CFL: 13W Screw-In Indoor
906,199
CFL: 13W Screw-In Indoor
906,199
5
Set Top Box
768,641
Set Top Box
768,641
6
High Efficiency Pool Pump
528,218
High Efficiency Pool Pump
528,218
7
CFL Fixture
469,571
CFL Fixture
469,571
8
HVAC Controls
335,124
CFL: <=7W Screw-In Indoor
308,096
9
CFL: <=7W Screw-In Indoor
308,096
CFL: 18W Screw-In Indoor
284,279
10
Insulation - Ceiling R30, Wall R13
306,159
CFL: 23W Screw-In Indoor
263,274
Other
2,702,540
Other
1,092,845
Total
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
10,102,375
8,398,951
21
ENERGY
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
22
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical Potential 2013-2015 – Energy
Without Emerging Technologies
Energy Potential (MWh)
DEER Measure Categories
Indoor Lighting
2013
6,815,381
2014
6,743,547
2015
6,672,470
867,218
852,792
838,574
Appliance
0
0
0
Water Heating
0
0
0
Laundry
31,693
35,839
39,894
Building Envelope
136,877
135,435
134,007
Exterior Lighting
HVAC
2,016,897
2,123,218
2,226,215
Plug Load
584,072
576,972
569,957
Process
361,418
370,884
380,111
0
0
0
Food Service
2,351,597
2,656,763
2,954,629
Refrigeration
798,955
851,401
902,105
13,964,110
14,346,851
14,717,962
42.60%
42.97%
43.23%
Whole building
Total
% of Forecast Sales
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
23
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical Potential 2013-2015 – Energy
With Emerging Technologies
Commercial - Technical Potential by DEER Measure Categories
Energy Potential (MWh)
DEER Measure Categories
Indoor Lighting
2013
9,582,016
2014
9,481,021
2015
9,381,091
Exterior Lighting
1,134,312
1,117,070
1,100,066
Appliance
0
0
0
Water Heating
0
0
0
31,693
35,839
39,894
Laundry
Building Envelope
136,877
135,435
134,007
3,460,246
3,551,353
3,639,298
Plug Load
801,364
791,918
782,612
Process
361,418
370,884
380,111
HVAC
Whole building
0
0
0
Food Service
2,351,597
2,656,763
2,954,629
Refrigeration
802,952
855,879
907,044
18,662,475
18,996,162
19,318,753
56.94%
56.90%
56.75%
Total
% of Forecast Sales
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
24
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical Potential 2013-2015 – Demand
Without Emerging Technologies
Demand Potential (kW)
DEER Measure Categories
Indoor Lighting
2013
1,254,344
2014
1,241,123
2015
1,228,041
Exterior Lighting
1,050,167
1,029,661
1,009,470
Appliance
0
0
0
Water Heating
0
0
0
4,382
4,955
5,516
Building Envelope
201,286
199,164
197,065
HVAC
966,720
1,026,005
1,083,677
Plug Load
156,581
154,760
152,960
Process
48,090
50,064
51,991
0
0
0
Food Service
475,030
536,698
596,896
Refrigeration
87,729
94,670
101,384
4,244,329
4,337,100
4,427,001
69.16%
69.42%
69.54%
Laundry
Whole building
Total
% of Forecast Sales
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
25
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical Potential 2013-2015 – Demand
With Emerging Technologies
Demand Potential (kW)
DEER Measure Categories
Indoor Lighting
2013
1,606,099
2014
1,589,171
2015
1,572,421
Exterior Lighting
1,062,051
1,041,420
1,021,105
Appliance
0
0
0
Water Heating
0
0
0
4,382
4,955
5,516
201,286
199,164
197,065
Laundry
Building Envelope
HVAC
1,744,282
1,795,371
1,844,935
Plug Load
181,386
179,297
177,235
Process
48,090
50,064
51,991
0
0
0
Food Service
475,030
536,698
596,896
Refrigeration
87,965
94,935
101,675
5,410,572
5,491,076
5,568,841
88.17%
87.89%
87.47%
Whole building
Total
% of Forecast Sales
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
26
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical and Economic Potential as a Percent of Forecast
Sales 2013-2015 Without Emerging Technologies
Energy Potential as % of Sales Forecast
Demand Potential as % of Demand Forecast
70.0%
60.0%
40.0%
% of Forecast
% of Forecast
50.0%
30.0%
20.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2013
Technical Potential
2014
2013
2015
Economic Potential
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Technical Potential
2014
2015
Economic Potential
27
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical and Economic Potential as a Percent of Forecast
Sales 2013-2015 With Emerging Technologies
Demand Potential as % of Demand Forecast
60.0%
100.0%
50.0%
80.0%
% of Forecast
% of Forecast
Energy Potential as % of Sales Forecast
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
60.0%
40.0%
10.0%
20.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2013
Technical Potential
2014
2013
2015
Economic Potential
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Technical Potential
2014
2015
Economic Potential
28
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Commercial Technical and Economic Potential by DEER Measure
Category 2015- Energy
Technical Energy Potential - 2015
Economic Energy Potential - 2015
Refrigeration
4.7%
Whole building
0.0%
Process
2.0%
Refrigeration
4.8%
Whole building
0.0%
Food Service
15.3%
Process
0.7%
Plug Load
4.1%
HVAC
20.4%
Building Envelope
0.7%
Water
Heating Appliance
0.0%
0.0%
Indoor Lighting
44.0%
Plug Load
4.9%
Indoor Lighting
48.6%
HVAC
18.8%
Laundry
0.2%
Food Service
17.4%
Building
Envelope
0.6%
Exterior Lighting
5.7%
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
Laundry
0.3%
Water
Heating
0.0%
Appliance
0.0%
29
ENERGY
Exterior
Lighting
6.9%
Approach to Track 1
Top Ten Measures Commercial Technical and Economic Potential
2015 – Energy Without Emerging Technologies
Rank
Measure
Technical Potential
Measure
Economic Potential
1
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base <= 150W
2,690,780
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base <= 150W
2,690,780
2
Combination Oven
1,938,925
Combination Oven
1,938,925
3
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base > 150W
913,796
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base > 150W
913,796
4
High bay fluorescent
893,365
High bay fluorescent
893,365
5
PS Interior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
676,471
PS Interior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
676,471
6
PS Exterior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
489,461
PS Exterior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
489,461
7
Packaged A/C (>=65k 12 EER)
451,216
Packaged A/C (>=65k 12 EER)
451,216
8
Second Generation T8 - 4ft
427,696
Second Generation T8 - 4ft
427,696
9
EMS
383,583
EMS
383,583
10
Food Holding Cabinet
310,388
Food Holding Cabinet
310,388
Other
5,544,530
Other
4,355,687
Total
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
14,720,212
13,531,369
30
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Top Ten Measures Commercial Technical and Economic Potential
2015 – Energy With Emerging Technologies
Rank
Measure
Technical Potential
Measure
Economic Potential
1
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base <= 150W
2,690,780
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base <= 150W
2,690,780
2
Dimmable w/F32T8 & 5W standby CFL
lamps
1,974,411
Combination Oven
1,938,925
3
Combination Oven
1,938,925
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base > 150W
913,796
4
PS Interior HID - Incandescent Base > 150W
913,796
High bay fluorescent
893,365
5
High bay fluorescent
893,365
Fault Detection & Diagnostics
875,950
6
Fault Detection & Diagnostics
875,950
PS Interior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
676,471
7
PS Interior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
676,471
Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Chiller
537,133
8
Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Chiller
537,133
PS Exterior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
489,461
9
PS Exterior HID - Mercury Vapor Base
489,461
Packaged A/C (>=65k 12 EER)
451,216
10
Packaged A/C (>=65k 12 EER)
451,216
Second Generation T8 - 4ft
855,392
Other
7,879,494
Other
5,626,345
Total
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
19,321,003
15,948,835
31
ENERGY
1
Measure Characterization
2
Codes and Standards Considerations
3
Key Structural Characteristics
4
Residential Draft Results
5
Commercial Draft Results
6
Comparison to Asset 2008
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
32
ENERGY
Asset and EERAM Comparison – PG&E Residential
Comparison Between Asset and EERAM Technical Potential- Energy
12,000
GWh
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2007
Asset Technical
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
2008
2009
2010
EERAM Technical
2011
2012
Asset Economic
2013
2014
2015
2016
EERAM Economic
33
ENERGY
Approach to Track 1
Comparison of Asset to EERAM of 2007 Residential
Technical and Economic Potentials (GWh)
DEER Measure
Categories
Asset Technical
Potential - 2007
Indoor Lighting
2,817.4
2,833.4
101%
2,187.1
2,518.3
115%
Outdoor Lighting
117.9
387.4
329%
5.4
327.1
6024%
Appliance
3,104.3
1,941.4
63%
3,067.6
1,924.2
63%
Water Heating
67.3
1.3
2%
54.2
1.3
2%
Laundry
8.3
5.6
68%
5.7
0.0
0%
Building Envelope
199.5
1,610.5
807%
71.7
0.0
0%
HVAC
102.7
126.6
123%
41.2
0.0
0%
Other
0.0
30.7
0.0
30.7
Low Income
0.0
39.3
0.0
0.0
Total
6,417.36
6,976.10
5,432.88
4,801.59
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
EERAM Technical EERAM/ASSET
Potential
%
109%
Asset Economic
Potential - 2007
EERAM Economic
EERAM/ASSET %
Potential
34
ENERGY
88%
DEER Measure Group Level Comparison

Indoor Lighting

Very similar levels of technical potential despite updated density values and groupings
o
o

EERAM density values based on KEMA 2010 on-site metering study
Initially, density values for CFL screw-ins were thought to be much different. EERAM with ~39/home and Asset
with ~ 19 per home. However, it was found that Asset had separate categories for table lamps and torchieres
and EERAM included them with screw-ins. Taken that into account, EERAM has a slightly higher density
Outdoor Lighting

EERAM estimates about 270 more GWh than Asset.
o

EERAM includes several wattage categories for outdoor screw-in CFLs. These did not exit in Asset.
Appliances

EERAM estimates about 1,163 fewer GWh than Asset.
o

Nearly all of this is found in recycling freezers. EERAM’s estimate of available freezers for recycling is much
lower (EERAM based on RASS) than Asset. Asset considers all freezers as available for recycling whereas
EERAM, based on RASS information, identified the portion of the freezer population that are actually second
freezers.
Water Heating

EERAM estimates about 66 fewer GWh than Asset.
o

Most of Asset’s water heat savings were from low flow shower heads, and faucet aerators. EERAM only
included those measures as part of the Low Income Program, which Asset did not model.
Building Envelope

EERAM estimates about 1,411 more GWh than Asset.
o
The available base density in Asset is very small at less than 5%. The EERAM base density is from RASS at 40%
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
35
ENERGY
Asset and EERAM Comparison – PG&E Commercial
Not As Yet Performed
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
36
ENERGY
Key
CONTACTS
Kevin Cooney, Director-in-Charge
Managing Director
Boulder, CO
(303) 728-2500
Kevin.Cooney@navigant.com
Floyd Keneipp, Project Manager
Director
Walnut Creek, CA
(925) 930-2716
Floyd.Keneipp@navigant.com
Gary Cullen
Associate Director (Manager of Track 1 Activities)
Vancouver, WA
(360) 828-4008
Gary.Cullen@navigant.com
Jay Luboff
Associate Director (Manager of Track 2 Activities)
Los Angeles
(213) 670-2724
Jay.Luboff@navigant.com
©2011 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.
37
ENERGY