National Transfer Accounts:
An Overview
Andrew Mason
East-West Center
University of Hawaii at Manoa
National Transfer Accounts
Rationale
► Countries
are experiencing dramatic
changes in age structure
► Economic effects are important
 Macroeconomic performance
 Poverty and social welfare
 Sustainability of public programs
► Research
and the design of effective policy
hampered by lack of appropriate data.
National Transfer Accounts
Objective of the National Transfer
Account (NTA) Project
►
Introduce age into National Income Accounts
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Measure all economic flows across age groups
Public and private
Market and non-market flows
Key sectors: education, health, and pensions
Transfers, saving and investment, credit transactions.
Estimates for recent years and with historical depth
Reflect the institutions, culture, and economic systems as
they vary over time and around the world
Use the accounts to analyze
 Interplay between age and macroeconomic performance
 Evolution of the economic lifecycle and intergenerational support
systems
 Public policy toward education, health, and pensions.
National Transfer Accounts
Organization of the project
►
Lead Institutions
 East-West Center (Andrew Mason)
 Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging, UC-Berkeley
(Ronald Lee)
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Asia Regional Office
 Nihon University Population Research Institute (Naohiro Ogawa)
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Funding
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National Institute on Aging
United Nations Fund for Population Activities
IDRC (Canada)
MacArthur Foundation
Others
www.ntaccounts.org
National Transfer Accounts
Research Teams for 23 Economies
National Transfer Accounts
Major Activities
►
Meetings (next meeting)
 Annual meetings (Seoul, Nov 5-6, 2007)
 Intl conferences (Tokyo, Nov 1-3, 2007)
 Training Workshops (Honolulu, June 2008)
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Scholarly publications
 Working papers, journal articles, etc.
 Comparative volumes (planned)
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Policy analysis
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UN Commission on Population and Development 2007
UN World Economic and Social Survey 2007
IMF Finance and Development
Asian Development Bank
NTA Public Data Base
National Transfer Accounts
National Transfer Accounts in Brief
► Economic
lifecycle
 Public and private consumption by age
 Labor income by age
► Age
reallocations or inter-age flows
 Transfers
► Public
► Private
including bequests
 Asset-based
► Asset
income
► Saving and dis-saving
National Transfer Accounts
The Flow Account Identity
► Inflows
► Outflows
 Labor Income
 Asset Income
 Transfer Received
 Consumption
 Saving
 Transfers Paid
Y (a)  Y (a)   (a)  C (a)  S (a)   (a)
l
a


Inflows
Outflows
C (a )  Y l (a )  Y a (a )  S (a )    (a)    (a)
Lifecycle Deficit
Asset-based Reallocations
Net Transfers
Age Reallocations
National Transfer Accounts
Per Capita Consumption and
Production
The Economic Lifecycle
500
400
Surplus
Labor
Production
300
200
Consumption
100
Deficits
0
0
10
20
30
40
Age
National Transfer Accounts
50
60
70
80
NT Flow Account, Aggregate. Taiwan, 1998 (NT$ billion),
nominal
Age
Total
Lifecycle Deficit
0-19
20-29
30-49
50-64
65+
832
1,704
7
-1,329
25
424
Consumption
6,570
1,775
1,163
2,376
757
499
Private
5,290
1,244
951
2,040
640
414
Public
1,280
531
212
335
117
85
5,738
70
1,156
3,704
732
75
Less: Labor income
Lifecycle deficit is the difference between production and consumption over
the lifecycle. All values are totals for the age group. Per capita values are
also estimated.
National Transfer Accounts
Major Inter-age Flows
6000
Lifecycle deficit
4000
Public &
Familial Transfers
2000
0
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
-2000
-4000
Asset-based
Reallocations
Asset-based
-6000 reallocations involve
inter-temporal
-8000 exchange.
Age
National Transfer Accounts
Net Public Transfers and the Lifecycle Deficit, Taiwan 1998
150
100
Net public inflows
Lifecycle deficit
NT$ billion
50
0
-50
-100
-150
0
10
20
National Transfer Accounts
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Net Private Transfers, Taiwan, 1998
100
80
Private capital
transfers
60
Intra-household
NT$ billion
40
Inter-household
20
0
-20 0
10
-40
-60
-80
-100
National Transfer Accounts
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
NT Flow Account, Aggregate. Taiwan, 1998 (NT$ billion), nominal
Age
Total
0-19
20-29
30-49
50-64
65+
Reallocations
832
1,704
7
-1,329
25
424
Asset-based reallocations
861
-5
-101
414
271
282
Income on Assets
2,456
4
175
1,539
528
211
Less: Saving
1,595
9
276
1,126
256
-72
Transfers
-29
1,710
108
-1,742
-246
141
Public
2
611
51
-673
-103
116
-31
1,099
-18
-1,155
-52
95
0
0
75
86
-91
-70
Private
Bequests
Lower panel measures the reallocation systems employed to satisfy
the lifecycle deficits and surpluses at each age.
National Transfer Accounts
Data Requirements: General
► Accounts
are national level – based on National
Income Accounts, nationally representative
surveys, national population estimates, etc.
► Age-profiles use single years of age up to 90+ if
possible. Large sample sizes are helpful.
► Methods involve analysis of individual records.
Only per capita and aggregate age profiles are
produced and reported.
► For some purposes, successive surveys provide
useful information.
National Transfer Accounts
Data Requirements
Economic Lifecycle
► Private
consumption
 Income and expenditure surveys
►Household
roster with age of each household
member
►Household consumption
 Education, health, imputed rent on owner-occupied
housing, and other consumption
 School enrollment for each member
 Other indicators of individual consumption (health
utilization, for example)
National Transfer Accounts
Data Requirements
Economic Lifecycle
► Public
consumption
 Administrative records
► Education:
Enrollment by age and education level and unit
costs of education
► Health: Various methods
► Other: Constant per capita
► Labor
income
 Earnings for individuals by age from Income and
Expenditure Survey or Labor Force Survey
 Self-employment income estimated as share of
operating surplus or mixed income from income survey
National Transfer Accounts
Data Requirements
Asset-based reallocations
► Age-profiles
of asset income
 Household income survey
 Wealth survey (rarely)
► Age-profiles
of saving
 Household income and expenditure survey
National Transfer Accounts
Data Requirements
Transfers
► Inter-household
private transfers
 Income and expenditure survey
► Intra-household
transfers
 Income and expenditure survey
► Public
transfers
 Tax profiles: asset income or assets by age
 Inflows: households surveys and administrative
records
National Transfer Accounts
Data Requirements
Bequests and Other
► Bequests
 Life tables
 Headship rates – repeated cross-sections from
censuses and/or surveys
► Other
 National Income and Product Accounts
 Population estimates by single year of age
National Transfer Accounts
The End
National Transfer Accounts