Strategic Management/ Business Policy Joe Mahoney 1 The First Rule of Strategy: A Good Strategy Is “Coherent.” Functional pieces of strategy support the whole Finance Mktg. Acctg. Strategy Oper . H.R. 2 Strategic Coherence The Logic of How The Business Fits Together: Southwest Airlines Low Price Short Routes No Frills Point-to-Point One Aircraft - Boeing 737 High # of Aircraft per Route No Meals Flexible/ Lower Staffing American Airlines Premium Priced Short, Long, & Int’l Variety Hub & Spoke Multiple Aircraft Low # of Aircraft per Route Meals & Service Higher Staffing 3 Southwest Airlines’ Activity System No baggage transfers No meals No seat assignments Frequent, reliable departures High compensation of employees Flexible union contracts © 1999 Pankaj Ghemawat 15-minute gate turnarounds Lean, highly productive ground and gate crews High level of employee stock ownership Limited passenger amenities Limited use of travel agents No connections with other airlines Standardized fleet of 737 aircraft Short-haul, point-to-point routes between midsize cities and secondary airports Automatic ticketing machines Very low ticket prices High aircraft utilization “Southwest, the low-fare airline” 4 Source: Michael E. Porter “What is Strategy” Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec 1966 The Strategic Management Process Mission Statement Strategic change External environment SWOT Analysis Strategic Plan Strategic “fine tuning” Feed-back & learning Internal environment Strategic Control Strategy Implementation Strategic Outcomes “Scenario Planning” “Planning as Learning” 5 A Basic Analytical Framework SWOT Analysis Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, & Threats Strengths & Weaknesses Drivers Opportunities & Threats Strategy Internal Factors Values Of Management Objectives External Factors Values Of Stakeholders 6 Andrews’ Strategy Framework Environmental Environmental Conditions Conditions and andTrends Trends Economic Economic Technical Technical Physical Physical Political Political Social Social Distinctive Distinctive Competence Competence Capabilities: Capabilities: Financial Financial Managerial Managerial Functional Functional Organizational Organizational Reputation Reputation History History Consideration Considerationof of all allcombinations combinations Community Community Nation Nation World World Evaluation Evaluationto todetermine determine best match best matchof of opportunity opportunityand andresources resources Opportunities Opportunities and andRisks Risks Identification Identification Inquiry Inquiry Assessment Assessmentof ofRisk Risk As Asextending extendingor or constraining constraining opportunity opportunity Identification Identificationof of strengths strengthsand and weaknesses weaknesses Choice Choiceof of Products Products and Markets and Markets Economic EconomicStrategy Strategy © 1999 Pankaj Ghemawat Corporate Corporate Resources Resources Programs Programsfor for increasing increasing capability capability 7 Source: Kenneth R. Andrews, The Concept of Corporate Strategy, 1971 How Do We Measure Performance? So, a good strategy will be coherent and will: neutralize any threats we face utilize available opportunities capitalize on our strengths avoid or improve upon current weaknesses But, how do we measure our success in accomplishing those objectives? That is, how do we measure performance? 8 How Do We Measure Performance? “The strategic aim of a business is to earn a return on capital, and if in any particular case the return in the long run is not satisfactory, then the deficiency should be corrected or the activity abandoned for a more favorable one.” • Alfred P. Sloan My Years with General Motors 9 2-20 Tradeoff Between Profitability and Growth Rate PMAX Profitability P1 P2 G0 G1 G2 Growth Rate 10 Copyright 1998 by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. 11 Sustainable Competitive Advantage and the Measurement of Performance While we have said that the objective of strategy is to “create competitive advantage,” specifically we have the goal to maximize economic return. Static Measures of Performance Economic Profits ROA, ROE, ROC Dynamic Measures of Performance NPV Methods Capital Market Measures of Performance Market Value of the Firm MVA, EVA, & Tobin’s q 12 13 14 15 The Company’s Mission & Goals Beyond Competitive Advantage Serving the needs of various stakeholder groups: customers employees managers shareholders communities 16 17 18 Problems With Shareholder Wealth Maximization Under what conditions does “maximizing shareholder wealth” not make sense? When do we need to pay attention to other “stakeholders?” What are the social responsibilities of business to: Employees? Communities? Customers? The Issue: What are the “externalities,” and who bears the costs? 19 Economic Profits and Competitive Advantage Driving a wedge between revenues and costs is how competitive advantage is created. In strategy, we need to think simultaneously about: the value we create for our customer how we appropriate some of that value in the form of higher prices the costs we incur in creating that value Conceptual Traps Managers Fall Into Accounting Costs versus Opportunity Costs Market Share is not competitive advantage 20 Dynamic Measures of Performance: NPV or DCF Analysis Competitive Advantage doesn’t happen over night; it evolves over time - So Profits may not be the best way to measure performance Finance vs. Strategy Cash Flow + 0 Time 21 Dynamic Measures of Performance NPV or DCF Analysis: The principle of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis that firms apply to their individual projects can also be applied to the firm as a whole. Maximizing the net present value of the firm’s cash flow (“sustainable competitive advantage”) corresponds to maximization of its stock market valuation and hence maximizes the wealth of its shareholders. 22 Net Cash Flow Net revenue volume discounts coupons - cash expenses = Income payroll 7% Social Security Tax health insurance transportation expenses Income - Depreciation = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) (depreciation is a non-cash expense) NOTE: assume an all equity firm, interest expenses = zero. Thus, EBIT = EBT. 23 Net Cash Flow EBT - t (EBT) EBT (1-t) = NET INCOME EBT (1-t) + depreciation - capital expenditures = NET CASH FLOW • (note we are assuming no change in accounts receivable, no change in net working capital, no change in inventory) Equivalent concepts: Maximize NPV DCF Approach Maximize Economic Profits (EVA) Sustainable Competitive Advantage (SCA) 24 Limitations of Present Value Measures Projections are only as good as the ability of managers to measure accurately the financial consequences of actions. An implicit assumption of value-based strategy was that business units and all investment proposals were self-contained. It was usually expected that divesting a business or curtailing an investment project would have no financial repercussions elsewhere in the corporation (e.g., ignores knowledge transfers). 25 Limitations of Present Value Measures Strict financial measurement of many longterm investments, particularly in intangible assets, is virtually impossible. Investments in R&D typically do not offer direct returns; their value is an option to invest in new products and processes that may arise from R&D. Narrowly- defined DCF does not accurately value investments where there is significant options value. (Note: Merck has been at the forefront of applying options theory to analyze investments in R&D). 26 Capital Market Approaches To Measuring Performance Market Value Added (MVA) Market Value less Total Investment Economic Value Added (EVA) Operating Profit (after tax) less annual capital costs; basically, this is economic profit Tobin’s q (Market Value/Book Value) a firm’s market value divided by its “replacement” cost The Market Value of the Firm Current Value of all securities issued by the firm 27 Economic Value Added (EVA) Anheuser-Busch operating profit $1,756 million - taxes $617 million = $1,139 million WACC : 67% equity at 14.3% 33% debt at 5.2% 11.3% WACC 28 Economic Value Added (EVA) WACC = 11.3% Capital of $8 billion 11.3% * $8billion = $904 million $1,139 - $904 = $235 million is the EVA 29 Economic Value Added (EVA) Former CEO Roberto Goizueto introduced EVA to Coca-Cola in 1987. Its impact has been to encourage: Divestment (e.g., pasta, wine, instant tea) where returns failed to cover the cost of capital Increased leverage (i.e., cost of equity far exceeded the cost of debt. Their WACC fell from 16% to 12%) Increased efficiency (e.g., inefficient plants shut down) 30 The Context Of Strategy Formulation Continuous Monitoring Of Strategic Situation Decisive Moments In The Company’s History Boeing and the 747 Nucor and the Continuous Strip Mill 31 Key Characteristics Of Strategic Decisions Important Significant Commitment Of Resources Not Easily Reversible Involves Alternatives, Consequences, and Choice Rapid Change In Industry Environment 32