-1- 3/15/2016 Math 267 Professor Luke Froeb Copyright 2002, Froeb Owen Graduate School of Management Vanderbilt University -2- 3/15/2016 Pricing is an extent decision Profit=Revenue-Cost Definition: Demand curves are functions that relate the price of a product to the quantity demanded by consumers. Demand Curves help us make decisions to increase profits by modeling revenue » Particularly MR » Should I sell another unit? -3- 3/15/2016 Aggregate Demand Aggregate Demand: each consumer wants one unit. To construct demand, sort by value. Aggregate Demand 14 12 10 Price Pric Revenu Marginal e Quantity e Revenue 12 1 12 12 11 2 22 10 10 3 30 8 9 4 36 6 8 5 40 4 7 6 42 2 6 7 42 0 5 8 40 -2 4 9 9 -7 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 Quantity Discussion: Why do aggregate demand curves slope downward? » Role of heterogeneity? » How to estimate? 10 -4- 3/15/2016 Pricing Tradeoff Lower pricesell more, but earn less on each unit sold Higher pricesell less, but earn more on each unit sold Tradeoff created by downward sloping demand -5- 3/15/2016 Marginal Analysis Marginal analysis finds the right solution to the pricing tradeoff. » Also requires less information. Definition: The marginal revenue (MR) is the change in total revenue with an extra unit. Proposition: If MR>0, then total revenue will increase if you sell one more unit. Proposition: If MR>MC, then total profits will increase if you sell one more unit. Proposition: Profits are max. when MR=MC -6- 3/15/2016 Elasticity of Demand Motivation: price elasticity is used to do marginal analysis. Definition: price elas.=(%change in quantity demanded) (%change in price) » If |e| is less than one, demand is said to be inelastic. » If |e| is greater than one, demand is said to be elastic. » If |e|=1, demand is said to be unitary elastic. -7- 3/15/2016 Other Elasticities Definition: income elasticity=(%change in quantity demanded) (%change in income) » Inferior (neg.) vs. normal (pos). Definition: cross-price elasticity of good one with respect to the price of good two = (%change in quantity of good one) (%change in price of good two) » Substitute (pos.) vs. complement (neg.). Definition: advertising elasticity=(%change in quantity) (%change in advertising) . -8- 3/15/2016 Describing demand with price elasticity First law of demand: e<0 (price goes up, quantity goes down). » Discussion: Do all demand curves slope downward? Second law of demand: in the long run, |e| increases. » Discussion: Give an example of the second law of demand. -9- 3/15/2016 Describing demand (cont.) Third law of demand: as price increases, demand curves become more price elastic, |e| increases. » Discussion: Give an example of the third law of demand. HFCS Price Sugar Price HFCS Demand HFCS Quantity -10- 3/15/2016 Estimating Elasticities Definition: Arc (price) elasticity=[(q1-q2)/(q1+q2)] [(p1-p2)/(p1+p2)]. » Discussion: price changes from $10 to $8, quantity changes from 1 to 2. Discussion: On a promotion week for Vlasic, the price of the Vlasic pickles drops by 25% and quantity increases by 300%. -11- 3/15/2016 Estimating Elasticities (cont.) 3-Liter Coke Promotion » Instituted to meet Wal-Mart Promotion Product Price/bottleQ 3-liter P of 3-liter Initial 210 $1.79 Final % change 420 66.67% $1.50 -17.63% elas. -3.78 Price/bottleQ 2-liter P of 3-liter 120 $1.79 48 $1.50 -85.71% -17.63% 4.86 Price/litre Q liters P liters 870 $0.52 1356 $0.46 10.92% -3.12% -3.50 -12- 3/15/2016 Quick and Dirty Estimators Linear Demand Curve Formula, e=p/(pmax-p) Discussion: How high would the price of the brand have to go before you would switch to another brand of running shoes? Discussion: How high would the price of all running shoes have to go before you should switch to a different type of shoe? -13- 3/15/2016 Market Share Formula Proposition: The individual brand demand elasticity is approximately equal to the industry elasticity divided by the brand share. » Discussion: Suppose that the elasticity of demand for running shoes is –0.4 and the market share of a Saucony brand running shoe is 20%. What is the price elasticity of demand for Saucony running shoes? Proposition: Demand for aggregate categories is lesselastic than demand for the individual brands in aggregate. -14- 3/15/2016 Using Elasticities for Prediction Discussion: The income elasticity of demand for WSJ is 0.50. Real income grew by 3.5% in the United States. » Estimate WSJ demand Discussion: The 1998 real per-capita median income in Arizona income in Arizona is $30,863; and in Colorado, $40,706 » Estimate difference between per capita consumption in Colorado and in Arizona. -15- 3/15/2016 Elasticity and Revenue Approximate relationship » %Rev.= %P + %Q » =%P(1+ %Q / %P) » =%P(1+ e) » =%Price(1- |e|) Discussion: In 1980, Marion Barry, mayor of the District of Columbia, raised the sales tax on gasoline sold in the District by 6%. -16- 3/15/2016 Elasticity and MR Proposition: MR=P(1-1/|e|) » If |e|>1, MR>0. » If |e|<1, MR<0. Discussion: If demand for Nike sneakers is inelastic, should Nike raise or lower price? Discussion: If demand for Nike sneakers is elastic, should Nike raise or lower price? -17- 3/15/2016 Elasticity and Pricing MR>MC is equivalent to » P(1-1/|e|)>MC » P>MC/(1-1/|e|) » (P-MC)/P>1/|e| Discussion: elas= –2, p=$10 mc= $8, should you raise price? Discussion: mark-up of 3-liter Coke is 2.7%. Should you raise price? -18- 3/15/2016 Elasticity and pricing (cont.) Discussion: Sales people MR>0. vs. marketing MR>MC. Discussion: The Kentucky legislature allows only one race track to be open at a time.