Materials and the
Environment
Part 1 – Major Contributors to
Increasing Consumption:
Population and Economic Growth
(Most recent update April 1, 2013)
Population
Growth
World Population 1850-1950
8
7
Billions
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.
World Population 1850-2012
8
7
Billions
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.
World Population 1850-2012
8
7
Billions
6
5
4
Sharp increase in growth
rate as basic medical care
is extended to 100s of
millions that hadn’t before
had access. Big drop in
infant mortality.
3
2
1
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.
World Population 1850-2050
(Medium Projection of Growth
Assumed After 2000)
18
50
18
70
18
90
19
10
19
30
19
50
19
70
19
90
20
10
20
30
20
50
10
9
8
7
6
Billions 5
4
3
2
1
0
Year
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.
Growth in Global Population
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of recorded history
First Billion
Second
Third
130 (1930)
30 (1960)
Fourth
15 (1975)
Fifth
12 (1987)
Sixth
12 (1999)
Seventh
13 (2012)
Eighth
16 (2028)
Ninth
(1800)
26 (2054)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion:
United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium scenario), 2003.
Annual Increase in World
Population, 1951-2012
Millions
100
90
80
China’s “great
leap forward”
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.
World Birth and Death Rates,
1936-2010
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
40
35
30
25
Natural
Increase
20
15
10
5
Birth rate
0
20
1
5
20
05
-
20
0
0
20
00
-
20
0
5
19
95
-
19
9
0
19
90
-
19
9
5
19
85
-
19
8
0
19
80
-
19
8
5
19
75
-
19
7
0
19
70
-
19
7
5
19
65
-
19
6
0
19
60
-
19
6
8
55
-
19
4
19
46
19
19
36
-
19
3
8
0
Death rate
Source: Data for 1936-2000 from United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002
Revision (medium scenario), 2003. Data for 2001-2010 from Population Reference Bureau, 2012.
Rates of Population Increase - 2013
Time Unit
Year
Population Increase
78,044,135
Month
6,503,678
Week
1,496,740
Day
Hour
Minute
Second
213,820
8,880
148
2.5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.
Average Annual Rate of Population
Growth for the World, 1950 – 2020
Continuing Decline Since 1970
2.5
1.5
1
0.5
20
20
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
0
19
50
Percent
2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.
Medium Projections of
Population Growth
(Billions)
World
2000
2050
2100
6.1
9.2
10.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.
Future population growth will
largely occur in the
Less Economically
Developed Countries
World Population Projection by
Level of Economic Development
10
9
Billions
8
7
6
5
4
Developing Countries
3
2
1
Developed Countries
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
Source: Population Reference Bureau (2013)
2050
But significant growth of the
U.S. population is expected
as well
Growth of U.S. Population,
1776- 2012
350
300
200
150
100
50
0
17
80
18
00
18
20
18
40
18
60
18
80
19
00
19
20
19
40
19
60
19
80
20
00
Millions
250
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.
Growth of U.S. Population,
1776- 2100
600
500
400
300
200
100
Projection
History
17
80
18
00
18
20
18
40
18
60
18
80
19
00
19
20
19
40
19
60
19
80
20
00
20
20
20
40
20
60
20
80
21
00
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.
Medium Projections of
Population Growth
(World pop. in billions, U.S. in millions)
2000
2050
2100
World
6.1
9.2
10.1
United States
281
404
571
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.
Discussions about population
and population growth tend to
trigger great passion and
substantial disagreement. But
one thing is abundantly clear –
continued growth is reducing
the margin for error.
. . . the area of biosphere
per person becomes
progressively smaller.
As the population grows . . .
Consider this reality in the
context of forests
Forests Then and Now World
• In 1800
• World population was 1 billion
• There were about 11 acres (4.5
ha.) of forests for each person in
the world
• Today
• World population is over 7 billion
• There are about 1.4 acres (0.6
ha.) of forest for each person in
the world
Forests Then, Now, and
Future - World
By the end of the next century
• World population is expected to reach 10 to
11 billion
• Even with zero loss of forests over the next
100 years, the amount of forest land for
each person in the world will shrink to 0.7 to
0.8 acres (or about 0.3 ha.) - - half the
current forest area per capita.
Forests Then and Now – U.S.
Year
1785
1850
1910
2000
2010
Population
3,000,000
23,300,000
77,000,000
281,000,000
309,330,000
Forest Area
(million ac.)
1,044
926
730
747
751
Forest
Area/
Capita
(acres)
348
40
9.5
2.7
2.4
Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population
estimates. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service.
Forests Then and Now – U.S.
Year
Population
Forest Area
(million ac.)
1785
1850
1910
2000
2010
3,000,000
23,300,000
77,000,000
281,000,000
309,330,000
1,044
926
730
747
751
2100
571,000,000
751
Forest
Area/
Capita
(acres)
348
40
9.5
2.7
2.4
1.3
Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population
estimates and projections. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service; year 2100
figure based scenario in which there is no forest loss between 2010 and 2100.
Reductions in forest land/capita
virtually ensure escalating
conflict over forest use, and
raise the question of where
needed wood supplies will come
from in the future.
The same is true of minerals,
energy resources, food,
agricultural fiber, and more.
No less significant, the world
will be faced in the 21st century
with the challenge of providing
food, fuel, shelter, and clothing
for a much larger population.
Economic
Growth
Economy
Gross Domestic Product:
The value of all goods and
services produced within the
borders of a nation.
Gross World Product:
The sum of all Gross Domestic
Product values expressed in a
common currency.
Gross World Product, 1970-2012
Trillions of 2005 U.S. dollars
60
50
40
30
An increase of 3.6X.
World population increased about
1.9x over the same period.
20
10
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, 2013.
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp)
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0
As with Population, Economies of the
Developing Nations are Growing Most Rapidly
Historical and Projected Growth of World GDP
by Level of Economic Development
Annual Percent Change
1993-2000
2001-2008
2009-2012
2013-2016
3.1
2.1
1.1
2.4
Emerging and
Developing
Countries
4.1
6.6
5.7
6.7
World
3.5
4.0
3.3
4.6
Advanced
Economies
Source: IMF (2013)
China’s Gross Domestic
Product
(Expressed in Current $US)
Billions of Current U.S.
Dollars
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: World Bank, 2013.
2000
2010
Coincidentally, those nations
with the most rapidly rising
populations, are also those
with the most rapidly
expanding economies.
This translates to rapidly
rising consumption.
It is a virtual
certainty that
consumption of
raw materials
globally will
increase
substantially in
the future.
Consider housing:
One effect of population and
economic growth will be demand
for over one billion new housing
units globally over the next 50
years.
How will society
achieve this while
at the same time
maintaining an
environment that
most of us would
agree is acceptable
for our children and grandchildren?
Summary
•
•
World and U.S. populations are growing.
•
Populations are growing most rapidly in
the developing nations.
•
World economic growth is much more
rapid than the rate of population growth.
– as a result, per capita consumption of
goods of all kinds is rising globally.
The rate of population growth is slowing,
though significant and ongoing increase
in numbers continues.
Summary
•
The combined effect is a number of
challenges for the global society.
A key challenge is how to maintain
environmental quality for future
generations, while at the same time
providing for the needs of current
generations.