Latinos and the 2012 Elections
Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life
Boston College
November 1, 2012
Luis Lugo, Director
Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life
Washington, D.C.
www.pewforum.org
I
Eligible Voters as
a Share of Group’s Population: 2012
Voting eligible
20.1
27.7
Non-citizen
21.9
1.6
3.5
Under 18
33.9
24
21.3
78.3
68.8
54.1
White
Black
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the March 2012 CPS
Asian
44.8
Hispanic
1
Hispanic Eligible Voter
and Registered Voter Trends
23.7
21.3
19.5
No. of Eligible Voters
16.1
(millions)
10.3
8.3
7.5 7.7 8.1
5.5
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.2
11.2
12.4
13.2
17.3
14.5
11.6 11
9.3 9.3
7.5 7.7
6.8
6.6
No. of
Registered Voters
(millions)
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: For 1988 through 2010, Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey November Supplements; for 2012, Pew Hispanic
Center tabulations of the August Current Population Survey.
2
Voter Turnout Rates
in Presidential Elections
% of U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who voted
White, non-Hispanics
66
65
Black, non-Hispanics
50
Latinos
47
Asian, non-Hispanics
1988
1992
1996
2000
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years
2004
2008
3
II
Latinos, Religion and the Presidential
Vote
2004
2008
Kerry
Bush
Other
%
%
%
%
%
%
53
44*
3
74
22
4
Catholic
58
39
3
81
16
3
Protestant
40
58
1
62
34
4
29
69
2
60
36
4
Latinos
Evangelical
Obama McCain
Other
*In the 2004 exit poll there was some debate about the results of national exit poll data for Hispanics. Analyses of state-by-state exit poll data and CPS data
suggest Bush’s share of the Hispanic vote was closer to 40% than 44%.
Note: In the 2008 data the religion question was asked somewhat differently than the current approach (“What is your religion—Catholic, Evangelical
Christian, Protestant, or something else?” with no born-again follow up). Those who responded “don’t know” or refused to respond are excluded.
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2008; 2004 Exit Poll data
4
Party Affiliation among Latino
Registered Voters
% among registered voters
65
58
56
28
25
62
Democrats
28
23
26
25
Republicans
1999
2002
2004
70
57
55
49
25
67
2006
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, various years.
2007
2008
2010
20
22
2011
2012
5
Party Affiliation by Religion
Democrat/Lean
Democrat
Republican/Lean
Republican
Independent/
Other/DK/Ref
Registered Voters
%
%
%
U.S. Latinos
70
22
9=100
903
Protestant
56
31
13=100
291
52
36
13=100
204
Catholic
71
21
7=100
401
Unaffiliated
81
10
9=100
150
U.S. Latinos
69
18
13=100
1,241
Protestant
59
26
15=100
402
52
33
15=100
270
Catholic
70
18
12=100
523
Unaffiliated
75
11
14=100
224
Evangelical
N
Eligible Voters
Evangelical
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012.
6
Latino Vote Preference by Religion
% who would vote or lean toward voting for each candidate if election were held today
Obama
Romney
100 %
82
80
73
60
50
39
40
20
19
7
0
Catholic
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012.
Religiously
Unaffiliated
Evangelical
Protestant
7
Latinos and Same-Sex Marriage
Do you favor or oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?
All Latinos
Catholic
Protestant
Evangelical
Mainline
Unaffiliated
U.S. general public
Catholic
White Catholic
Protestant
White evangelical
White mainline
Unaffiliated
Favor
%
52
54
31
25
46
71
Oppose
%
34
31
58
66
37
18
48
53
53
33
19
52
73
44
37
38
58
76
37
20
DK
N
%
13=100 1,765
15=100 798
11=100 551
9=100
389
17=100 156
11=100 292
9=100
9=100
8=100
9=100
5=100
11=100
7=100
6,500
1391
940
3,406
1,351
1,146
1,064
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2012. General public figures from aggregated polls conducted by the Pew Research Center for the
People & the Press in 2012. Whites are non-Hispanic only.
8
Latino Views on Abortion
Should be legal in
all/most cases
Should be illegal in
all/most cases
%
%
All Hispanics
43
51
Catholic
42
52
Protestant
32
65
28
70
Unaffiliated
62
32
General population
54
41
Catholic
50
44
Protestant
48
47
34
60
73
22
Evangelical
White evangelical
Unaffiliated
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, National Survey of Latinos, 2011 and Pew Research Center for People & the Press, October 2011.
9
If you had to choose, would you rather have a
smaller government providing fewer services, or a
bigger government providing more services?
All Hispanics
Catholic
Protestant
Evangelical
Unaffiliated
U.S. GP
Catholic
White Catholic
Protestant
White Evangelical
White Mainline
Black Prot
Unaffiliated
Smaller
%
19
14
25
20
24
Bigger
%
75
80
71
76
71
Depends
%
2
2
*
1
2
48
48
61
52
71
58
17
41
41
45
31
37
20
30
72
45
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
4
DK/Ref
%
4=100
5=100
4=100
3=100
3=100
N
1,220
792
223
161
140
8=100
6=100
6=100
9=100
6=100
10=100
10=100
10=100
2,410
532
376
1,263
470
467
179
412
Source: National Survey of Latinos, General public comparison from October 2011 Survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.
10
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