Race and the Evaluation of Signal
Callers in the National Football
League
David J. Berri (California State
University, Bakersfield)
Rob Simmons (Lancaster
University Management School)
NFL Labour Market
•
•
•
•
Entry of players normally by college draft
Free agency normally only after 4 years
Some monopsony power for owners
Binding salary cap: 55-64% of designated
team revenues allowable for team wage bill
• Multi-period contracts with many contingency
clauses
• Player trades but not usually for cash
Concern About Black Representation in NFL
• Few black quarterbacks though increasing in
number: 1/35 in 1971, 3/43 in 1994, 11/36 in
2006
• NFL wants to encourage more black head
coaches- Rooney rule for head coach hires
• No black owners (yet)
• Segregation: Blacks dominate specialist offense
& defence; Whites dominate quarterback,
offensive line & kickers
• Is there salary discrimination for black QBs?
Quarterback Rating
[(Completion rate - 0.3)/0.2 +
(Yards/Pass attempt -3)/4 +
Touchdowns/Pass attempt/0.05 +
(0.095 - Interceptions/Pass
attempt)/0.04]*100/6
Maximum score = 158.2 (?)
Really this is a passing-efficiency measure
Weakness of QB Rating
• Does not include rush yards
• And black QBs rush more than white QBs
• Are black QBs compensated for this aspect of
their performance?
• An alternative measure that does include QB
rush yards is QB score:
All yards – (3*all plays) – (30*all turnovers)
Simpler measure, black QBs more productive than
white on this measure- both per game and per
play
Literature on Pay Discrimination in Sports
Basketball:
Hamilton, App Econ 1997: uses quantile regressions to
show whites earn less than blacks at lower end of pay
distribution while blacks earn less than whites (18%) at top
end
Bodvarsson/Partridge, Lab Econ 2001: no evidence of
employer discrimination but find evidence of white coworker & nonwhite customer discrimination
NFL: Kahn, ILRR 1992: some evidence of customer
discrimination- white (black) salaries vary positively with %
whites (blacks) in local metropolitan areas
Salary Statistics: Pass Attempts >0, 1995-2006
$m real
White (N = 435)
Black (N = 95)
Mean
2.62
2.54
Standard
deviation
25th
2.28
1.93
0.79
0.82
Median
1.76
1.90
75th
4.11
3.94
90th
6.05
5.46
0
1.000e-07 Density2.000e-07
3.000e-07
Kernel Density: White Salary
0
5000000
10000000
rsalcap
15000000
0
1.000e-07 Density
2.000e-07
3.000e-07
Kernel Density: Black Salary
0
2000000
4000000
rsalcap
6000000
8000000
Black-White Salary Distribution
Black: skewness = 0.72; kurtosis = 2.49
White: skewness = 1.07; kurtosis = 3.38
How to Measure Performance?
• Quarterback rating
• Quarterback score- includes rush yards
• Detailed measures e.g. pass yards,
touchdowns, fumbles, interceptions
• Just pass yards and rush yards
The Model
LOG SALARY = 0 + 1PERFORMANCE
+ 2PROBOWL + 3EXPERIENCE +
4EXPERIENCE SQ + 5POP +
6VETERAN+ 7CHANGE TEAM +
8OFFENSE SALARY + 9DRAFT
ROUND 1+ 10DRAFT ROUND 2+
10BLACK +
11BLACK*PERFORMANCE + error
Estimation Issues
Separate black/white equations: not enough
observations
BLACK interaction terms
Quantile regression- since salary distributions are
skewed
Control variables for salary
• Standard concave shape of salary-experience
profile, at median salary is maximised at 8 to 9
years
• High draft round has positive effect on salary, as
does ‘veteran’ (free agency)
• Changing team lowers salary
• Local population size has no effect on salary
(revenue sharing in NFL)
• Greater total offense salary is associated with
higher QB salary
• Career pass attempts is a significant predictor
Quantile Regression of Log Real Salary
0.1
0.25
0.5
0.75
0.9
-0.376
0.558
1.727
1.406
1.027
QB
0.0036
RATING
0.0076
0.0128
0.0131
0.0114
BLACK* 0.0038
QB
RATING
-0.0089
-0.0230
-0.0214
-0.0178
BLACK
With QB score
0.1
0.25
0.5
0.75
0.9
0.135
0.123
0.332
0.093
0.265
QB
0.591
SCORE
0.609
0.622
0.565
0.327
BLACK* -0.326
QB
SCORE
-0.332
-0.565
-0.406
-0.110
BLACK
With full performance measures
0.1
0.25
0.5
0.75
0.9
BLACK
0.045
0.136
0.293
0.214
-0.099
PASS
YARDS
0.287
0.273
0.317
0.267
0.147
-0.128
-0.259
-0.228
-0.171
BLACK* -0.026
PASS
YARDS
With pass yards & rush yards
only
0.1
0.25
0.5
0.75
0.9
BLACK
0.062
0.187
0.286
0.270
(1.76)
-0.177
PASS
YARDS
0.297
0.285
0.313
0.291
0.160
-0.148
(1.93)
-0.238
-0.250
-0.139
BLACK* -0.076
PASS
YARDS
Conclusions
• Few opportunities for black quarterbacks until recently
• Quarterback salary depends on draft position, veteran status,
change of team, experience and number of career pass
attempts
• Important to identify an appropriate measure of performance:
QB SCORE is suitable
• Black quarterbacks have less dispersed and less skewed salary
distribution relative to blacks
• Little evidence of wage discrimination evaluated at means
• Rush yards are not rewarded as a performance measurealthough this is a special attribute of black QBs
• But some evidence that black quarterbacks get lower salaries
than whites from quantile regressions when BLACK is interacted
with PASS YARDS
• This discrimination result applies at median and above