POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN
NIGERIA:
CONCEPTS THAT TRAVEL
MINION K. C. MORRISON
PROFESSOR AND HEAD
POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY
WESTERN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION
SAN FRANCISCO, APRIL 2, 2010
POLITICAL SUCCESSION
ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS
MODERN DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS DO
COMPARING SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA
What we think about when
we think of Nigeria?
NIGERIA
A Checkered Succession History
REPUBLIC 1: PARLIAMENTARY
FEDERALISM
1960-1966
___________________________
MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM
1966
1966-1973
CIVIL WAR 1967-1970
1973-1979
_____________________________________
REPUBLIC II: PRESIDENTIALISM
1979-1983
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MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM
1985 – 1998
________________________________________
REPUBLIC III: PRESIDENTIALISM
1999 FORWARD
SUCCEEDING
PROBLEM? SO HARD TO DO!
What is Political
Succession
• SUCCESSION IS
TRANSITION FROM ONE
LEADER TO ANOTHER
Political Succession
Occurs when
A NEW PRINCIPAL LEADER
EXERCISES PRIMARY
CONTROL OVER THE
PERSONNEL AND
POLICY APPARATUS
BUSH BOWS OUT TO OBAMA
Why is Succession So
difficult?
IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER
•
•
•
•
POWER CORRUPTS
THE TANTALIZING AURA OF POWER
TRANSITION TO WHAT?
POWER YIELDS NOTHING
DEMOCRACY AND SUCCESSION
SUSPICIONS AND REVERENCE
LEADERS, WHILE NECESSARY, ARE INHERENTLY
TO BE FEARED AND DISTRUSTED
TYRANNY
THE VOICE OF THE PEOPLE
LEGISLATIVE PRIMACY
REGULAR TRANSITIONS
ELECTIONS
Exercise
TRACE AND COMPARE THE HISTORY OF
SUCCESSION IN
GREAT BRITAIN
RUSSIA
CHINA
_______________
1. SHOW HOW LONG THESE PROCESSES TOOK
2. ARE THESE PROCESSES COMPLETE? EXPLAIN
3. COMPARE THESE CASES TO NIGERIA
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT
POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN AFRICA?
POLITICAL
CRISES
STRONG ECONOMY
CULTURAL CONFLICT
THE NIGERIAN THIRD REPUBLIC
AND SUCCESSION
• OBASANJO SERVED
TWO TERM LIMIT, 19992007
• OBASANGO HANDED
OVER POWER TO YAR’
ADUA 2007
YAR ADUA DISABILITY
•
YAR ADUA FELLED BY
ILLNESS LEAVING THE
EXERCISE OF STATE POWER
IN SUSPENSION
•
ADUA REFUSES TO HAND
OVER POWER TO VP PER
CONSTITUTION
•
LEGISLATURE APPOINTS VP
GOOD LUCK JONATHAN
ACTING PRESIDENT 2010
CONSTITUTIONAL
PROVISION I
SECTION 144
• (1) The President or Vice-President shall cease to
hold office, if - (a) by a resolution passed by twothirds majority of all the members of the executive
council of the Federation it is declared that the
President or Vice-President is incapable of
discharging the functions of his office; and (b) the
declaration is verified, after such medical
examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel
established under subsection (4) of this section in its
report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker
of the House of Representatives.
CONSTITUTIONAL
PROVISION II
SECTION 145
"Whenever the President transmits to the
President of the Senate and the Speaker of the
House of Representatives a written declaration
that he is proceeding on vacation or that he is
otherwise unable to discharge the functions of
his office, until he transmits to them a written
declaration to the contrary such functions shall
be discharged by the Vice-President as Acting
President."
RISKS FOR NIGERIA
A TRANSITIONAL DEMOCRACY
POLITICAL CRISIS BORNE OF:
COUP CULTURE
ETHNIC STRIFE
RELIGIOUS STRIFE
ECONOMIC CRISIS
ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACY
LACK OF CONSOLIDATION
RETURN TO COMPARE
SUCCESSION ISSUES IN OLDER
DEMOCRACIES
BUSH V GORE IN USA
TONY BLAIR DEPARTURE IN UK
PUTIN DEPARTURE IN RUSSIA
CONCLUSION
AS ANCIENT WESTERN THEORISTS PREDICTED,
SUCCESSION IS A GENERAL PROBLEM FOR
GOVERNMENTS
ROUTINE PROBLEM FOR STABLE MODERN
GOVERNMENTS ARTICULATE BODY POLITIC
EXAGGERATED PROBLEM FOR TRANSITIONAL
GOVERNMENTSILLIBERAL DEMOCRACIES
NIGERIA OFFERS SPECIAL BENEFITS FOR
COMPARING EXECUTIVE SUCCESSION