Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat
Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling
Joint Operational Utility
Leslie W. Kennedy
Joel M. Caplan
Eric L. Piza
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
School of Criminal Justice
Center for Law & Justice
123 Washington Street
Newark, NJ 07102
www.rutgerscps.org
www.riskterrainmodeling.com
Presentation to
UCL Department of Security
And Crime Science
October 4, 2011
It’s all about risk
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Operationationalizing risk
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Data
►
►
Violent crimes (aggravated assaults, homicides, robbery,
shootings, and weapon possession)
Provided by the NJ State Police through the Regional
Operations Intelligence Center.
► 52 violent crime incidents from April to August 2007
► 57 violent crime incidents from April to August 2008.
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Hotspot Mapping
►
►
Hotspots: areas with
high concentrations of
crime.
Conventional hotspot
mapping: uses
locations of past events
to anticipate locations
of future similar events.
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Hotspot Mapping
►
Over +2 Standard
Deviations is
statistically the top 5%
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Hotspot Mapping
(Pearson Chi-Squared value=13.50; df=1; p<0.01)
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Near Repeat Analysis
► If
a crime occurs at a location, the chances of a
future crime occurring nearby increases
► Many near repeat incidents over time could result
in hotspots
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Near Repeat Analysis
►
April-Aug 2007 Violent
Crimes:
 500% greater chance of
victimization at the same
place up to 7 days after
an initial incident
 153% greater chance of
near repeat occurring
within 14 days at 801900 feet from initial
incident
1 block ~ 370ft
NR Calculator: http://www.temple.edu/cj/misc/nr
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Near Repeat Analysis
► Use
knowledge of near repeat phenomenon to
intervene at certain places
► Like hotspot mapping, it relies on the occurrence
of crime before predicting future behavior
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Risk Terrain Modeling
► Risk





Factors
Gang members
Bus stops
Schools
Public housing
Bars, clubs, fast food
restaurants, and
liquor stores
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Risk Terrain Modeling
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Risk Terrain Modeling
► 38%
of all violent crimes in 2008 happened at
places with risk values of 3 or more
 10% of the area of Irvington
► Hotspot
locations did not move from year to year
because environments stayed criminogenic
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Joint Operational Utility
► Capitalize
on unique strengths of each method
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Joint Operational Utility
► Violent
crimes occur at places with higher
environmental risks
 Especially if violent crimes already occurred there
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Joint Operational Utility
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Joint Operational Utility
Summary:
►
►
►
Violent crimes occur at places with high environmental risks
If environmental risks aren’t mitigated, then crimes will continue at
same places, creating hotspots
Unpreventable instigator crimes will attract near repeats at places of
higher environmental risk
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Joint Operational Utility
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Joint Operational Utility
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Joint Operational Utility
Use the “Near Repeat
Opportunities” tool in
the RTM Toolset
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3-Part
Integration for
Crime Analysis
and Forecasting
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3-Part
Integration for
Crime Analysis
and Forecasting
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3-Part
Integration for
Crime Analysis
and Forecasting
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Tactical
Deployment
Decisions:
From Product A
Respond immediately
to crime hotspots and
high-risk places
From Product B
Limit length of time
for targeted
deployments
From Product C
Prioritize target areas
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Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat
Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling
Joint Operational Utility
Leslie W. Kennedy
Joel M. Caplan
Eric L. Piza
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
School of Criminal Justice
Center for Law & Justice
123 Washington Street
Newark, NJ 07102
www.rutgerscps.org
www.riskterrainmodeling.com