2010 Midterm Election
What happened?

60+ GOP seat gain
in US House

6 Seat GOP Gain in
US Senate

11 state leg.
Changed GOP; 7
Governors to GOP
2010 Midterm
RESULTS

How interpret?
2010 Midterm
What trends?
◦ Mandate for GOP
programs?
◦ Referendum on
Obama?
◦ Voters looking back
in anger at economy?
Does the Tea Party
really exist?
Obama net
negative
nationally
Obama net
positive in
WA, CA, OR
Electoral context different in
Washington
Republican
Favorability
near par w/
Dems
nationally
Republicans
viewed far
less favorably
than Dems on
West Coast
Electoral context different in
Washington
Your vote
express
support for
Obama,
opposition to
Obama, or
Obama not a
factor
Graph shows “support
Obama” + “not a
factor” as No
Electoral context different in
Washington
Economy
dominant
everywhere
Huge increase
over 2006
Any year,
voters punish
incumbents
The economy, stupid. And health
care. Outside of the west.

2010

15% family
situation “better”
(60% Dem)

9% natl economy
“excellent” or “good”
(77% Dem)

37% economy
“poor” (68% GOP)

2006

30% family
situation “better”
(71% GOP)

49% natl economy
“excellent” or
“good” (70% GOP)

13% economy
“poor” (85% Dem)
Voter evaluations of the economy
Tea Party

Republicans
◦ 92% strong
disapprove Congress
◦ 94% vote GOP in
House races
◦ 13% blame Bush for
economy
◦ Older, male,
educated, affluent,
registered GOP

“Tea Party”
◦ 90% strong
disapprove Congress
◦ 92%
◦ 5% blame Bush for
economy
◦ Older, male, affluent,
registered GOP
◦ Hands of social
programs
No such thing as a Tea Party

Tea Party (?) 2010

2006, 2008
◦ Older, affluent(-ish)
voters angry at
Obama about
economy
◦ Younger, less
affluent voters angry
at Bush about
economy
◦ 12% under 30; 14%
30-39 (majority D)
◦ 18% under 30; 18%
30-39 (majority D)
◦ Only 3% first time
voters
◦ 11% first time voters
in 2008
 45% D, 43% R
 69% D, 30% R
No such thing as a Tea Party
Most important
issue facing
the country
today?
Afghanistan,
immigration in
single digits
Mandate?
What is the
highest priority
for the new
Congress?
40% “reduce
deficit”
(65% R)
37% “spend to
create jobs”
(68% D)
Mandate?
Seat Gain/Loss For President's Party in US House
100
80
60
40
20
0
-40
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
1944
1942
1940
1938
1936
1934
1932
1930
-20
-60
-80
Surge and Decline: President’s party gain ‘on year,’
Lose in midterm.
Avg= 24 seat loss in midterm
It Takes Seats to Lose Seats: 2010 looks like 1994, 1974,
1946, 1938…. (but worse)
Public opinion after elections
2010 weakest of weak mandates
What is Responsible for Turnover of Congress?
70
60
50
Support Challenger
Party Programs
Oppose Incumbent
Party Programs
Dissapproval of
President
40
30
20
10
0
2010
2006
1994
Public opinion after elections
2010 less about Obama than 1994 about Clinton, 2006 about
Bush

Why surge and
decline?
◦ Presidential elections
higher turnout
◦ Many voters
mobilized by
presidential elections
stay home 2 years
later
2010 Midterm
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
->40%
->62%
->40%
->60%
->40%
->54%
->38%
88 million
133 million
86 million
124 million
80 million
107 million
75 million
Not many voters
changing their
votes…it’s who shows
up
Marginal Dems
Lost
Marginal seats
= moderates
Dem more
‘cohesive’
GOP caucus
also?
Greater
polarization
Forecasting models
Under-predicted
2010 GOP gains

Why?

Economy,
presidential
approval,
‘generic ballot’
not enough
◦ Turnout?
◦ fundraising?
GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’
A curious bit about polling
Republican vote over-estimated in close Senate races
2010 Midterm in US

The Economy

East of Rockies, huge
GOP gains
+6 GOP US Senate
 +55 GOP US House


Limited referendum on
Obama

Ltd. angst about health
care
2010 Midterm in WA

The Economy
◦ West of the Rockies,
different story
 No Senate change
 +6 GOP US House
◦ Referendum on
economy
 Not much care about
health care
How did 2010 play out West?
Trends in Washington
Evidence of slight GOP gain in Party Identification
GOP Gains in WA State Leg.
Not on par with 1994
Trends in WA Voters' Opinions: 2006-2010
80
70
60
%Approve Gov
%Approve Leg
%Right Track
50
40
30
20
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Steady decline in voter approval
Washington Poll data
Decline of economy, rise of issue
Washington Poll data…several D seats 2006 due to Iraq
Least popular, most popular
Washington Poll, 2010….few have heard of McKenna
Economic Recovery

Presidents
clobbered in
midterm who won
◦
◦
◦
◦
FDR 1940, ‘44
Truman 1948
Reagan 1984
Clinton 1996
No Recovery

Presidents (party)
who lost
◦
◦
◦
◦
What about 2012?
IKE/GOP 1960
LBJ/Dems 1968
Carter/Dems 1980
Bush I 1992