Notes on Chapter Four
Paul Bacon
SILS
IR201
Waltz and Nye’s method of analysis
• 3. International System
– Structure
– Process
• 2. State/society
• 1. Individual
• Proximate cause(s)
• Counterfactuals
Outcomes of WWII
•
•
•
•
•
35-50 million people killed.
Advances in weaponry – tanks, planes, and radar
Development of nuclear weapons
Unconditional surrender of Germany and Japan
Occupation and transformation of Germany and
Japan
• German problem ‘solved’ by division into two
• End of European dominance
• Europe becomes a theater where others contest
Failure of the League of Nations 1
• The US never joined.
• Germany and Japan left in protest.
• All states had a veto, under Article 16, on collective
security action.
• The LON was, unfairly, associated with the
punishment of Germany.
• The LON was unable to prevent wars of aggression in
the Japanese and Italian cases.
Failure of the League of Nations 2
• In the Japanese case, the report took too long
to be compiled, and was too cautious and
ineffective in its judgments and requirements.
• In the Italian case, the criticism of Italian
aggression by the LON was too weak and
incomplete.
• This was because the British and the French
wanted the Italians to be their allies in the
attempt to balance against Hitler’s Germany
The Punishment of Germany 1
• Blamed solely for WWI in the Treaty of Versailles.
• Lost 25,000 square miles of territory.
• This territory lost to France, Belgium, Denmark and
Poland.
• Lost 7 million people.
• German army limited to 100,000.
• A de-militarized zone created along the border with
Alsace-Lorraine.
• The Saar coalfields placed under French rule for 5 years.
• Germany prohibited from having air force.
The Punishment of Germany 2
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Germany forbidden to unite with Austria.
Germany loses overseas colonies.
Given 33 billion dollar reparations bill.
Germany experiences massive inflation.
Inflation wipes out savings of German middle class.
Inflation makes it difficult to sustain democracy.
France occupies the Ruhr when Germany is unable to pay.
All of these factors create a situation where it is easier for
Hitler to gain support.
• See Nye, Figure 4.1, page 108 for more detail.
The 4 options available to Hitler
• Passivity – acceptance of Germany’s
weakened international position.
• Expansion through economic growth – like
Japan after WWII.
• Limited goals – revise the treaty of Versailles,
and regain some of Germany’s 1918 losses.
• Expansionist strategy – breakout from
Germany’s containment.
Hitler’s four phases of action
• 1. Destroy the Versailles framework (19331936).
• 2. Expand into the small countries neighboring
Germany (1936-1940).
• 3. Achieve rapid military mastery of the
European Continent (1940).
• 4. Over-reach and unleash full-scale war
against the SU and the US (1941-1945).
Phase One
• Withdrew from LON, and from the LON Disarmament
Conference
• Blamed France for withdrawal
• Signed a treaty with Poland, to disrupt plans for a ‘Little
Entente’
• Denounced the military limitation clauses of the Versailles
Treaty
• Announced plans to triple the size of the army, and to create
an air force
• Undermined the momentum behind the Stresa talks by
making a diplomatic overture to Britain
• Moved troops into the Rhineland
• Raised the possibility of a return to the LON on German terms
Phase Two
•
•
•
•
•
Announced 4-year plan for military build-up
Made alliances with Japan and Italy
Supported Franco in the Spanish Civil War
Carried out a pre-emptive Anschluss in Austria, 1938.
(Arguably) outwitted British PM Neville Chamberlain in
Munich 1938.
• Agreed the transfer of the Sudetenland into German
possession.
• Six months later took control of the whole of
Czechoslovakia.
• Signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with the Soviet Union
in August 1939.
Phase Three
• Invaded and conquered Poland, 1939-40.
• Sent troops to Norway during the ‘phony war’.
• Launched a successful ‘blitzkrieg’ through
Holland, Belgium and France.
• Evaded the French Maginot line defences.
• Drove the British Army back to Dunkirk, and
off of the European mainland.
Phase Four
• Defeated/stalemated in the Battle of Britain.
• Attacked the Soviet Union in June 1941.
• This was a significant risk, but at the time there was strong military
support for this option from Germany military planners.
• Germany had been sweeping all before it, and the Soviet Union was
thought to be weak, internally divided, and badly organized.
• Germany enjoyed considerable success in the early part of the war
with the Soviet Union.
• Nevertheless, it is highly possible that Germany would not have
risked war with the Soviets if it were not for the role that the Slavs
played in Hitler’s racist ideology.
• Declared war on the US in December 1941, shortly after Japan’s
attack on Pearl Harbour.
Structural causes of WWII
• WWI did not solve the German problem.
• The Versailles Treaty was too harsh, in that it
provoked German nationalism.
• But the VT was also too lenient, in that it left
the Germans with the capacity to do
something about their harsh treatment.
• The absence of the US and the SU until late on
meant that there was no large balancer to
deter Germany.
Process
• Germany was a revisionist state which was determined
to destroy the Versailles system.
• The growth of Fascist and Communist ideologies
created hatred and hindered communication.
• The British believed that appeasement was the best
strategy.
• The French believed that defensive strategy was the
most effective way of dealing with the Nazi threat.
• Both the British and the French therefore made the
opposite mistake to that which they had made in the
buildup to WWI.
Second image - State/society
• Nye mentions three second image-related factors
that contributed to the outbreak of war:
– The Western democracies were torn apart by class
cleavages and ideological disputes.
– The Great Depression had a powerful effect on
domestic politics and class conflict, and in particular
made it easier for Hitler to come to power in Germany.
– The US policy of isolationism, and failure to take the
responsibility of becoming the new hegemonic power
in the international system.
First image – Hitler’s war? 1
• WWII is often known as Hitler’s war. Whilst there is an
important element of truth to this argument, it is an
exaggeration, and the reality is much more
complicated.
• WWII was Act II of the Great War, unfinished business,
and the interwar period was only an intermission.
• Hitler did want war, but he initially wanted a short,
sharp war, not the far broader and more damaging war
that we now know as WWII.
• The substantial Pacific War also fails to fit with the
narrative of ‘Hitler’s war’.
First image – Hitler’s war? 2
• However, we should not go too far in the opposite direction,
and attribute the causes of WWII exclusively or primarily to
structural factors.
• The British historian AJP Taylor has suggested that most
German leaders in Hitler’s position would have pursued
similar policies.
• Taylor’s argument is also a simplification and an exaggeration
of a more complex reality.
• We have seen that Nye helpfully divides the period of German
resurgence into 4 phases, and argues that Hitler’s personality
was more important in some phases than others.
• To explain this in terms of Waltz’s theory, in some phases the
third image was more important, and in some cases the first
image was more important.
First image – Hitler’s war? 3
• Nye argues that Hitler’s personality was not the crucial factor in the
first phase, and that most German leaders would have followed a
familiar path.
• Nye argues that the second and third phases, that brought mastery
over Europe, depended on Hitler’s skill, audacity, and ideological
commitment.
• Eventually, Hitler made important mistakes in launching phase four,
motivated by a growing hubris and sense of invincibility, and fuelled
by his particular racist ideology.
• Ultimately, Hitler’s individual leadership was a crucial factor in
WWII, and increased in significance as he progressed through
phases 1-4.
• According to Nye, the outcome of WWII, and the kind of war it
eventually became, depended very much on Hitler’s monomaniacal
personality.
Proximate causes
• Deep, intermediate and precipitating causes.
• Main deep cause: the unfinished business of
WWI.
• Main intermediate causes: The social and
ideological disruptions that produced Hitler in
Germany, political and economic weaknesses in
the democracies, and the policies of the
American, British and French governments.
• Main precipitating cause: Adolf Hitler’s strategy
for domination.
Counterfactuals
• What if Germany had been appeased, not punished during
the 1920s, and the Weimar Republic had been preserved?
• What if the US had ratified the Treaty of Versailles, joined
the League of Nations, and stayed in Europe to preserve
the balance of power?
• What if the Great Depression had not happened?
• What if Britain and France had together confronted
Germany earlier in the 1930s?
• What if Britain and France had allied with the Soviet Union
earlier in the 1930s?
• Each of these developments might have prevented Hitler
either from coming to power, or from launching his
campaign of aggression.
Lessons of history? 1
• Some kind of WWII was probable but not inevitable.
• Individual human choices mattered, and the role of one
individual, Hitler, is something we have to consider very
carefully.
• Nazi Germany went to war deliberately.
• But there were various other forms that the war could have
taken.
• Stalin gave Germany too much latitude.
• The Americans should not have been isolationist.
• The British should not have attempted to appease Hitler.
• The French should not have relied on a defensive politicalmilitary strategy.
Lessons of history? 2
• The British, French and Soviets should have found a way to make an
alliance in the 1930s.
• Hitler’s strategy of dividing and ruling the British, French and
Soviets was brilliant.
• Germany’s blitzkrieg tactics in phase three of the conflict were also
brilliant and highly successful.
• The impact of Hitler as an individual became more important as we
progressed through each of Nye’s four phases.
• Most German leaders would have pursued phase one
• Arguably only Hitler would have pursued phase four.
• Hitler miscalculated in attacking the Soviet Union and declaring war
on the US.
• This miscalculation was partly due to hubris on the part of Hitler,
and partly because of the racial dimension of his view of the world.
Lessons of history? 3
• Appeasement is now treated as something of a dirty
word as a result of the diplomatic failures of the 1930s
with which it is associated.
• However, appeasement is not always unsuccessful or
morally wrong.
• The Athenians should arguably have appeased Corinth
in the lead-in to the Second Peloponnesian War.
• France was successfully appeased in 1815, when it was
still strong.
• Britain wisely appeased the US between the 1880s and
early 1900s, as the US overtook the UK and became
the global hegemon.
Lessons of history? 4
• Perhaps, ironically, the West confronted Germany
in the 1920s, when it should have been appeased,
and appeased Germany in the 1930s, when it
should have been confronted.
• WWII resulted from a collective failure to deter
Hitler’s planned aggression.
• We can further argue, perhaps, that the best
policies to try and avoid WWI and WWII were
almost opposite.
• In both cases, however, Western allies learnt the
wrong lessons from the previous war.
Lessons of history? 5
• If the Western Allies had accommodated or appeased
Germany in the build-up to WWI, then perhaps WWI could
have been delayed or avoided altogether.
• Also, if the Western Allies had allied more convincingly and
deterred Germany, then WWII could have been avoided.
• Unfortunately, the Western policies were the opposite of
this. The West confronted Germany in 1914, and appeased
Germany in the 1930s.
• From this we can learn that different policies may be more
appropriate at different times, and that we should not
simply plan on the basis of what happened in the previous
major conflict scenario.