Emerging Technologies
to Watch
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Ballistic Magnetoresistance (BMR)-based drives: 50+ DVDs on a
hard drive the size of a credit card
Wireline: 10GB Ethernet (802.3ae) approved by IEEE in 2002
Wireless
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“3G” cell phones: 11.4 million by 2003; 66.4 million by 2005; 250
million+ by 2007
TI expects single-chip cell phones by end of 2004
WIFI continues to expand in corporate and community settings
Radio Frequency ID (RFID) – new “Auto ID” standards
Biometrics: face, fingerprints, hand geometry, handwriting, iris,
retinal, vein and voice
Network Services Architecture-bases systems (UDDI, WSDL,
XML, and more)
E-paper, Smart-paper, Flexible Displays
Standing At the Crossroads
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Variable-Price Vending Machines at Amusement Parks
Explosion in e-mail (2002: 31 billion/day, 2006: 60
billion/day)
By 2010, over 27 million e-workers in European
Union (est. 3 million in 2000)
Online consumer sales ($1.5 billion/week in late
August 2002) continuing to accelerate
Households paying e-Bills to reach 52 million by 2006
(up from 18 million in 2001)
Smart-Paper, wireless signs in department stores and
elsewhere
Computerized, implanted, drug-delivery chips
Words of Wisdom
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Clinging to the Past and Present:
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“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons”
(Popular Mechanics, 1949)
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” (Bill Gates, 1981)
Seeking the Future:
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"At every crossroads on the path that leads to the future,
tradition has placed 10,000 men to guard the past."
-- Count Maurice Maeterlink
Life is what's coming, not what was.
Through the Looking Glass…
WFS Technology Timeline
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2005:
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Retinal implants linked to video cameras
100 teraflop computers
All patients tagged (RFID) in hospitals
Voice synthesis quality up to human
standards
80% of U.S. homes have PCs
Through the Looking Glass…
WFS Technology Timeline
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2010:
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25% of TV celebrities are synthetic
All government services delivered electronically
(2008)
Optical neurocomputers mimic brain functions
Electronic supercomputers as fast as human brain
First Net War fought between cybercommunities
Effective prediction of most natural disasters
Emotionally responsive toys & robots (2006)
Through the Looking Glass…
WFS Technology Timeline
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2015:
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Satellite location devices implanted into pets
3-D videoconferencing
Desktop computer as fast as human brain
ID cards replaced by biometric scanning
DNA computer
Through the Looking Glass…
WFS Technology Timeline
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2020:
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Machine knowledge exceeds human knowledge
(2017)
Electronic life forms given basic rights
Only 15% of deaths worldwide due to infectious
diseases
Sensors widely used in countryside to monitor
environment
Computers linked to biological sensory organs
Reservations required to use some key roads
Computer-enhanced dreaming
Through the Looking Glass…
WFS Technology Timeline
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2025:
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Fully functioning artificial eyes
Learning superseded by transparent interface
to smart computers
Robots surpass developed-world population
VR becomes popular entertainment in nursing
homes
Holographic TV