HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting From the Steelmaker’s Perspective Thomas A. Danjczek President Steel Manufacturers Association March 4, 2010 HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting •SMA •Today’s Concerns •Today’s Deterioration – US Steel Production •China, China, China •Scrap •Trade Issue •Is Enough Being Done? •What does the U.S. need to do? •Conclusion Outline HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting SMA • The Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) – 34 North American companies: 29 U.S., 3 Canadian, and 2 Mexican – 128 Associate members: Suppliers of goods and services to the steel industry • SMA member companies – Operate 125 steel recycling plants in North America – Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmakers using recycled steel HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting SMA • Production capability – EAF steel producers accounted for 60% of U.S. production in 2008 – 62% first half 2009 – SMA represents over 70% of all U.S. steel production • Recycling – SMA members are the largest recyclers in the U.S. – EAF steel producers are the largest recyclers in the world – Last year, the U.S. recycled over 75 million tons of steel • Growth of SMA member companies – Highly efficient users of labor, energy, and materials – Modern plants producing world class quality products Alternative Iron Salesman - 2009 HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting The Obvious Concerns -Our Jobs -US Recession and financial meltdown -Infrastructure Spending -Value of the RMB -Energy shortfalls and pricing -China, China, China -Global Steel Overcapacity -Subsidies and other trade distortions -US Legislation (111th Congress and the 44th President) Set the Stage HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting US Steel Production (All in Million Net Tons) (Numbers are Approximate) PAST – From 1986 through 2008, U.S. steel production has been around 100 m tons – up & down 10% PRESENT – 2009 1st Half 2nd Half Year 25m 36m 63m (45% utilization) (62% utilization) Now 1.5m/week vs. 2.1m/week (Minimills at 63% of production) FUTURE – 2010 World Steel 78m Peter Marcus 68m US Poll 69m (up 19% over 2009), optimistic (Back to 75m in 2012) (up 10% over 2009) HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting U.S.Raw Steel Production - 2008 & 2009 Production Tons 10 9 Million Tons 8 7 6 5 4 3 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2008 2009 2008-2009 Monthly HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting U.S. Raw Steel Capability Utilization - 2008 & 2009 Monthly Utilization Percentage 100 Utilizatin Percentage 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 2008 JUL AUG 2009 2008-2009 Monthly SEP OCT NOV DEC HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting Globalization and Consolidation Developments Have Dramatically Changed the NAFTA Steel Landscape Acquiring Company Acquired Company Arcelor Mittal Arcelor Dofasco Mittal Ispat Inland ISG Bethlehem LTV US Steel Plate Weirton Acme-Riverdale Georgetown Sicartsa Bayou US Steel Lone Star National LTV Tin ISG IH#2 Pkl. Stelco BlueScope IMSA Steelscape Acquiring Company Acquired Company Nucor Connecticut Steel Trico Birmingham Corus Tuscaloosa Worthington-Decatur Marion Nelson Steel Harris Steel Auburn Steel North Star Arizona American Iron Reduction LMP Steel & Wire The David J. Joseph Co. (Scrap) Gerdau Ameristeel Sheffield Chaparral Co-Steel North Star Sidetul Tultitlan Quanex Macsteel Corsa SSAB ICH/Grupo Simec Republic Ternium Hylsa IMSA Ipsco Plate (U.S.) Steel Dynamics GalvPro-Jeffersonville The Techs Roanoke Steel Steel of West Virginia Omnisource (Scrap) Acquiring Company Acquired Company Duferco/NLMK Winner Steel Evraz Oregon Steel Claymont Steel Ipsco Canada Severstal Arcelor Mittal-Sp. Pt. Rouge WCI Wheeling Pitt CSN Essar Heartland Algoma Minnesota Steel OAO TMK Ipsco Tubular (U.S.) Tenaris Maverick Tube (U.S.) Prudential Canada Hydril Company 1/1/09 NAFTA Production Declines More Than Other World Regions Global Output Sharply Down, With Few Exceptions Global Crude Steel Production 2009 YTD vs. 2008 % Change N. America: Canada: U.S.: Mexico: -45.1 -51.9 EU27: -47.0 -39.3 Turkey: -13.5 Russia: Ukraine: -31.9 -29.5 S. America: Brazil: -30.3 -31.4 Asia: Japan: S. Korea:-14.9 China: India : Global Production: Excluding China: Source: Worldsteel -26.8 -16.4 -30.9 -2.2 -34.0 +7.5 +1.6 The U.S. Construction Market Is Still Weak • The residential housing market has bottomed in the past 6 months – to 40-year lows. • Home foreclosures are continuing to rise. Government incentives (e.g., a tax credit for first-time buyers) are helping, but limited. Tighter credit standards are reducing the pool of available new buyers. • An uptick in the nonresidential, commercial market is not expected until late next year. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. The NAFTA Automotive Production Remains Deeply Depressed Detroit 3 Production Jan-September 2009 vs. 2008 3000 Chrysler Ford GM 2250 1500 750 0 2009 YTD 2008 YTD While the “cash for clunkers” program has helped increase production and sales, “Detroit 3” production has declined by over 50% YTD vs. 2008. With the end of this incentive program and with unemployment likely to stay high for several years, automotive production and sales are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels for the medium term. Source: Ward’s Automotive. * 2009 Annualized based on September year-to-date. HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting China’s Trade Surplus with the U.S. Year China’s Trade Surplus 2001 $22 billion (year China joined WTO) 2006 $177 billion 2007 $262 billion 2008 $290 billon (up 47.7%) The U.S. has lost 3.3 million manufacturing jobs since 2000… imbalances cannot go on forever. HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting U.S. Scrap Consumption and Exports 90 80 70 Million Tons 60 50 Exports U.S. Consumption 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting RMDASTM Ferrous Scrap Price Index Effective 2/20/10 HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting AMM “Exports of Ferrous Scrap” “The full-year export tally of 22,393,975 [in 2009] tonnes set a new annual record, rising 4.3 percent from the then-record 21467,530 tonnes shipped to foreign scrap consumers in 2008.” A Few Numbers… 2009 Exports 21.5M tonnes* 2009 Imports (E) 2009 Consumption 2009 Shredded Exports 2009 HBI DRI ? Pig Iron *USGS January 2010 3.0M tonnes* 48.0M tonnes* 8.5M tonnes* (64/66 M 2005 to 2008) HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting Is Enough Being Done? Raw Materials No Barriers continue Energy No China No Lack of policy continues Currency manipulation, Subsidies, Not playing by the rules Trade No Distortions continue, Who’s the protectionist No long term structural policy changes are being proposed in Washington for taxes, trade imbalance, and energy. What does the US need to do • Assume a Pro-Manufacturing Agenda – – – – – Business Tax Reform Currency Adjustments Energy Reasonable regulatory measures (Environment/Labor) Climate for investments • Solve the structural problems that caused the recessionReal Foundation – Bad loans and securities on bank balance sheets – Huge trade deficits • Policy incrementalism is not sufficient HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting Conclusion U.S. Steel Industry in Better Position Today to Manage the Down Cycle (but what a down cycle!) ― Improved Economics From Consolidations, i.e. “Reacted Quicker”; ― Improved Control of Variable Costs ― Scrap-Based Metallics (In 2009, U.S. will be nearly 2/3 EAF-based ― Energy Costs ― Transportation Costs ― Labor Efficiency (U.S. at Below 2MH/Ton; Minimills Often Below 1MH/Ton) ― Improved Inventory Control (Inbound Materials, Steel, and Customer Products). NOT THE OLD INVENTORY OVERHANG! ― Concerns with Scrap, Climate Change, Energy, U.S. Debt, Taxes, Currency, but especially Climate for Investment ― Still Challenging – But Reasons for Meaningful Long-Term Optimism! HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting Questions for SMA Panel at HBIA-IPIA/Cooper Consolidated Meeting • How have you managed metallics supplies during the down cycle? Who is involved in the metallics purchasing decision? Describe the decision making process. How do you value the metallics you buy (i.e., cost per iron unit purchased or cost per ton liquid steel produced or some other way)? Rank in order of importance the following metallics purchasing factors: • • • – – – – – • Price Delivery schedule Quality (conformity to specification) Reliability (supplier reputation) Other (specify) How do you value carbon content when buying metallics? HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting Questions for SMA Panel at HBIA-IPIA/Cooper Consolidated Meeting • • • • • • What types of ore-based metallics (DRI, HBI, DRI Fines, pig iron, and iron nuggets) do you use and in what percentages? How often (percentage of heats)? What do you consider the maximum percentage of HBI in a total charge? Pig iron? What would be the ideal physical and chemical characteristics of HBI for your application? Pig iron? Do you have experience using HBI and pig iron in the same charge? Explain. Do you have experience using HBI chips (fraction 4 mm-25 mm)? How do value HBI chips as compared with HMS 1/2 and HBI? Do you have experience using HBI fines (fraction below 4 mm)? How do value HBI fines as compared with HMS 1/2 and HBI? What are the major difficulties of using HBI fines n the EAF? What do feel would be the most effective usage of HBI fines? HBIA-IPIA Spring Meeting Questions for SMA Panel at HBIA-IPIA/Cooper Consolidated Meeting • • • • (For SDI) What has been your experience using iron nuggets from the ITmk3 process? How do you value iron nuggets as compared with HMS 1/2, HBI, and pig iron? What are the principal differences between using iron nuggets and HBI? Pig iron? (For Tom) Do you see the North American market having room for additional high quality EAF capacity (i.e., flats, SBQ, fine wire, and forging bar)? If so, where? (For Tom) Do you have a feel for the volume of HBI and pig iron imports in 2010? Could HBI be used in the induction furnace? Will EAF steel production levels return to first half 2008 levels? If so, when? Specialized questions: • What value would you place on reducing SiO2 in HBI from 4 percent to 2 percent? • Can HBI be applied in induction furnaces?