T09-00 1 Population Hypothesis Tests Purpose Allows the analyst to analyze the results of hypothesis testing for known large sample means, small or unknown sample means, and proportion situations based on an a significance level. The hypothesis tests include the 3 alternative options of "not equal", "greater than", and "less than" with appropriate conclusion, p-value, test statistic, and critical value(s). Inputs a level Sample size Hypothesized value Hypothesis alternative Sample statistics (mean, standard deviation, proportion) Outputs Test Statistic Critical Value(s) p-value Hypothesis test conclusion T09-00 - 1 Critical Values Reject Ho Reject Ho a a - CV CV -CV = Z/t such that P(<Z/t) = a CV = Z/t such that P(>Z/t) = a Reject Ho Reject Ho a/2 a/2 - CV CV -CV = Z/t such that P(<Z/t) = a/2 . . . . CV = Z/t such that P(>Z/t) = a/2 T09-00 - 2 p-value (Right Tail Test) One tail to the right Ho: Ha: > p-value Test statistic For one tail tests to the right (>) the p-value is the probability greater than the test statistic T09-00 - 3 p-value (Left Tail Test) One tail to the left Ho: Ha: < p-value - Test statistic For one tail tests to the left (<) the p-value is the probability greater than the test statistic T09-00 - 4 p-value (Two Tail Test) Two tail Ho: = Ha: 1/2 p-value - Test statistic 1/2 p-value Test statistic For two tail tests to the left () the p-value is the probability greater than the right test statistic plus the probability less than the left test statistic T09-00 - 5 Hypothesis Test for Means (Known Variation) Large samples (n >= 30) Methodology Assumptions Population Variance is known Test Statistic = Z = Left Tail: Za X - o n Right Tail: - Za Two Tail: - Za / 2 and Za / 2 T09-00 - 6 Hypothesis Test Means (Known Variation) - Example The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) periodically conducts studies designed to test the claims manufacturers make about their products. For example the label on a large can of Hilltop Coffee states that the can contains at least 3 pounds of coffee. A random sample of 36 cans of coffee were tested yielding a sample mean of 2.92 lbs per can. Previous studies have shown the standard deviation in the lbs/can to be .18. Is Hilltop Coffee making a valid claim? Test their claim for a 99% confidence level. T09-00 - 7 Hypothesis Test Means (Known Variation) - Example One tail to the left Ho: 3 Ha: < 3 Reject Ho a -2.326 Test statistic = -2.667 Facts: CV = -2.326 test statistic = -2.667 p-value = .004 a = .01 null hypothesis is false alternative is true Business Conclusion: The statistical evidence shows that Hilltop Coffee is is not living up to their claim (at least 3 pounds of coffee in each can). T09-00 - 8 Input the a and the sample mean, standard deviation, sample size and hypothesized value Select the alternative hypothesis The test statistic, critical values, p-value and decision are automatically calculated T09-00 - 9 Hypothesis Test for Means (Unknown Variation) Small sample (n < 30) Methodology Assumptions Population Variance is unknown Left Tail: t a ,df X - o Test Statistic = t = s n Right Tail: - t a ,df Two Tail: - t a / 2 ,df and t a / 2 ,df T09-00 - 10 Hypothesis Test Means (Unknown) - Example The manufacturing manager of the Hiney Winery is responsible for filling the Tiny Hiney wine bottles with 16 oz of wine. If the wine bottles are too full the Hiney Winery looses money and if they are do not contain 16 ounces their customers get upset. A random sample of 8 bottles are sampled yielding the following fill in ounces. 16.02, 16.22, 15.82, 15.92, 16.22, 16.32, 16.12, and 15.92. Tiny Hiney Using a level of significance of .05 determine whether the Heiney Winery is filling their bottles with an average of 16 oz of wine. 16 oz T09-00 - 11 Hypothesis Test Means (Unknown) - Example Two tail Facts: Ho: = 16 Ha: 16 Reject Ho Reject Ho a/2 a/2 - 2.3646 2.3646 Test statistic = 1.1186 CV = -2.3646 & +2.3646 test statistic = 1.1186 p-value = .3002 a = .05 null hypothesis is true alternative is false Business Conclusion: The statistical evidence shows that the Hiney Winery is putting 16 ounces of wine in their Tiny Hiney bottles. T09-00 - 12 Input the a and the sample mean, standard deviation, sample size and hypothesized value Select the alternative hypothesis The test statistic, critical values, p-value and decision are automatically calculated T09-00 - 13 Hypothesis Test for Proportions (Large) Sample size is sufficiently large Methodology Assumptions Sufficiently Large (np 5 and n(1- p) 5) Test Statistic = Z = Left Tail: Za p - o o (1 ) n Right Tail: - Za Two Tail: - Za / 2 and Za / 2 T09-00 - 14 Hypothesis Test for Proportions (Large) - Example Over the past few weeks the Bushwood Golf Course 20% of the players have been women. In an effort to attract more women players the head pro has developed a special “drive time advertising” promotion to attract women golfers to Bushwood. After a week of running the promotion, a random sample of 400 golfers showed that 300 of them were men and 100 were women. Use a level of significance of .05 to determine if promotion has had an impact on the the number of women playing at Bushwood. T09-00 - 15 Hypothesis Test for Proportions (Large) - Example One tail to the right Ho: .20 Ha: > .20 Facts: Reject Ho a 1.6449 Test statistic = 2.50 CV = 1.6449 test statistic = 2.500 p-value = ..0062 a = .05 null hypothesis is false alternative is true Business Conclusion: The statistical evidence shows the “drive time” advertising promotion has been effective in attracting more women to play Bushwood. T09-00 - 16 Input the a and the sample proportion, sample size and hypothesized value Select the alternative hypothesis The test statistic, critical values, p-value and decision are automatically calculated T09-00 - 17