SHA 385 The Party State and the Relationship of Government and Markets Jean Oi, The Role of the Local State in China’s Transitional Economy What kind of state does China have? Laissez faire Leninist state with command economy Developmental state Leninist developmental state + local state corportism Disciplined multiple states with strong incentives to promote economic growth through entrepreneurial action It is the local Chinese state that is the most active agent in promoting economic growth, creating capitalist firms and acting as capitalists. This is a Maoist state acting as a developmental state, which leads to a fundamentally different kind of state. Maoist state had to be changed to permit local initiative and develop incentives for economic development but its capabilities for promoting growth were substantial. Maoist state bureaucracy was disciplined and organized down to local levels. Makes the case for TVEs as collective enterprises, not as private firms Property rights of TVEs remain with the local government and much of the decision making responsibility lies with local officials But the day-to-day operation is with contracting officials who operate the firm How did the system of TVEs – Local government operate? Economic reforms remove the restraints created by a command economy and marketize the economy and create incentives that push local officials toward entrepreneurial action Decollectivize agriculture changes the access of local governments to revenues Local officials must act to create incomes for themselves: entrepreneurial reward and risk with hard budget constraints County officials could operate multiple TVEs and reap rewards General secretaries were judged by higher levels on the basis of economic growth The administrative bureaucracy becomes a channel of information and resources for promoting market production This information and resource system extends across the region and regions to give firms access to inputs and markets Officials serve to provide information and proposals of an entrepreneurial developmental state – officials and managers as entrepreneurial partners with the official facilitating firm interactions across the area and region Property rights allow officials to allocate and reallocate resources TVEs assume debts of other local TVEs that fail and extend loans to other local TVEs Targeted subsidies/loans/resources to TVEs based on performance: administrative guidance of Japan plus the chaebol direction of Korea Local governments as owner and regulator of TVEs – nature of embeddedness and autonomy Why did local officials act as entrepreneurs and not as predators? Role of the CCP? Guanxi is not the same as predatory corruption Local officials do gain some measure of autonomy of central government but still remain under the supervision of the CCP Is the Leninist nature of the CCP the key to its economic success? Bureaucrats in Business, Chinese-Style: The Lessons of Market Reform and State Entrepreneurialism in the People's Republic of China JANE DUCKETT * In the 1990s, departments within the state administration in China have been setting up profit-seeking businesses to earn income for themselves and to employ their officials. These new state businesses differ from the state enterprises that existed under the command economy in terms of both their organization and their sources of investment, and they have been neither planned as part of the market reform program nor anticipated by central government policy makers. Rather, they are a spontaneous response by individual departments to the needs and opportunities that have emerged in the process of economic liberalization. This state activity is novel in the experience of implementing liberalization policies around the world. Moreover, it is unanticipated in the literature on the political economy of market reform, where states are typically expected to resist liberalization policies because they reduce their influence. Neoliberal thinking - These findings reinforce expectations that state intervention creates bureaucratic and societal vested interests that will seek to maintain the lucrative status quo and resist economic liberalization, and they apparently give empirical support to NPE theory. As John Waterbury has noted: ``From different disciplinary origins there has been a conflation of assumptions about the likely behavior of public bureaucracies that yields powerful insights into their pathologies but little that would explain why they might change'' It has become part of the orthodox thinking on economic liberalization that state bureaucracies would have little interest in promoting market reform. At the same time as the dominant thinking in development theory and practice has converged toward anticipating state resistance to economic liberalization, market reform in China has produced a quite contrary phenomenon in which mid- and lower-level officials within the state bureaucracy embrace markets by setting up their own businesses. As competitive markets have emerged, Chinese bureaucrats have become involved in business in a way unanticipated in the dominant thinking on market reform. This paper argues that some of these activities are genuinely entrepreneurial, and concludes that state entrepreneurialism in China reveals weaknesses in current thinking about the state and marketization in development. the state businesses are only semi-legitimate, and as a result are not generally reported in China. This means that there are no available quantitative data, and documentary reports are scarce. It is because the state officials have invested state assets in the businesses to earn income in a market environment, that I characterize them as adaptive, embracing market reform and acting entrepreneurially. They are promoting rather than hindering market reform in that they are using the businesses to implement policies to cut back state personnel rather than blocking cutbacks. It remains for further research, however, to determine whether the enterprises have in fact operated without advantage derived from their bureaucratic parentage, promoted further deregulation and market reform, and led to state restructuring in the longer term. ranging from small trading companies or restaurants with only a handful of employees, to large department stores and real estate development companies with several dozen or more sta.. A large number were service sector businesses, partly because this was a small part of the prereform command economy and therefore had most scope for development, and partly because such businesses often require relatively little initial capital investment. Sometimes the businesses were related to the administrative work of the parent department, but many conducted unrelated business. For example, public property departments tended to establish real estate development companies ‹often more than one‹but some had also set up trade companies and one had opened a large department store. Commerce departments, which had managed the distribution of consumer goods in the prereform planning system, often set up businesses trading in those goods, but they had also created other kinds of business (Liu, 1993). In addition to several trading companies, the municipal commerce bureau Sometimes joint venture companies were established with foreign business capital. For example, one Tianjin government department had created several real estate development ventures together with investors from Hong Kong. The profits generated by the businesses are shared with the parent department and are used to pay o.cials' bonuses, supplement administrative expenses, and carry out departments' o.cial work. The new businesses thus help relieve financial problems that have grown for departments in the reform period as the demands on them increase and inflation devalues state funds and officials' salaries. Leading o.cials have been under pressure to cut back sta.ng levels during the reform period so as to restructure the bureaucracy for the market economy and to reduce budgetary spending. 28 The pressure has been particularly evident in departments required to restructure because markets have encroached on their work, and there the businesses have clearly provided a convenient means of reducing personnel. The motivation for the new businesses was primarily that they allowed individual departments within the state administration simultaneously to earn new income and comply with the sta. reduction policy without making their personnel redundant. Some further clarification of ``state entrepreneurialism'' and an outline of the key features of ``the entrepreneurial state'' are therefore necessary. Some of the new state businesses, like those described above, are best seen as a distinctive kind of state involvement in the economy and one that can be distinguished from corruption and profiteering. Indeed this activity is best termed ``entrepreneurial'' since it involves individual departments investing directly, to generate income, in businesses that operate in a market environment. In these cases, individual departments invest their own finance in businesses, which therefore di.er from traditional state enterprises that receive budgetary funding as designated in state plans. Moreover, they do so to employ some of their own sta. and to generate pro®ts for themselves rather than for local or central government. These business ventures also involve an element of risk, often seen as a defining feature of entrepreneurship. they are set up to build buildings, produce goods, provide catering services and trade commodities in a competitive market environment. Many were set up to trade in consumer goods or provide services (restaurants and dance halls) in sectors where markets were at their most developed. It is not yet clear whether the entrepreneurial state will be a short-lived phenomenon in the process of reforming state planning and introducing a market economy in China, or whether it will prove more enduring State entrepreneurialism also involves a different kind of activity from that found in the ``developmental state'' identified by some as directing development in other parts of East Asia indeed perhaps also in China itself Did this low level kind of state entrepreneurialism at the local level reflect a more deep-seated form of practice that was augmented and redefined in the reform of state owned enterprises in the 1990s? Is state entrepreneurialism very different from that in TVEs or from the peasant behavior in responding to new incentives in farming and production? Sources of social support for China’s current political order: The “thick embeddedness” of private capital holders Christopher A. McNally, Teresa Wright Why hasn’t massive economic growth and the explosion in the size and economic power of the capitalist class led to radical political change? Why hasn’t some form of cascading institutional change led to cascading political change? contrary to conventional expectations, China’s capitalists appear to have little interest in pushing for systemic political reforms, but instead seem to seek to embed themselves in the party-state, thereby perpetuating Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. this article investigates the nature and implications of the political embeddedness of China’s private capital holders. The embeddedness of these individuals is “thick” in the sense that it encompasses an inter- twined amalgam of instrumental ties and affective links to the agents and institutions of the party-state. Thick embeddedness therefore incorporates personal links that bind private capital holders to the partystate through connections that are layered with reciprocal affective components. Such close relations work against the potential interest that private capital holders might have in leading or joining efforts to press for fundamental political liberalization. this “thick embeddedness” is not solely instrumental. Rather, instrumental ties are layered with guanxi and kinship ties – personal links that bind this group to the party-state through sentiment and a reciprocal affective component. the key is that China’s leaders have successfully embraced and encouraged economic freedom while simultaneously restricting political freedom. In a somewhat more hopeful reading of the policies of post-Mao CCP elites, some argue that significant administrative reform has resulted in a party-state that is much more institutionalized, meritocratic, and responsive to public sentiments and grievances. From a legal standpoint, private businesses in China may be divided into two groups: first are small enterprises with fewer than eight employees the getihu; second are larger enterprises with eight or more employees private entrepreneurs. Getihu typically run firms that involve family members and rely on very limited capital. In general, these entrepreneurs are not prosperous, but rather are situated within China’s lower classes. Thus, in official Chinese government documents getihu are not considered “private entrepreneurs” or “private capital holders.” China’s private entrepreneurs are at the helm of the most dynamic and rapidly growing sector of the economy. Domestic private enterprises account for between one third and one half of China’s GDP, employ more than 100 million people, and, together with foreigninvested private firms, provide an estimated 75 percent of employment growth and 71 percent of Chinese tax revenues Private entrepreneurs have willingly joined government-sponsored business associations, such as the Private Enterprises’ Association and the Industrial and Commercial Federation. These quasicorporatist organizations are intended both to “maintain state control” over private entrepreneurs and to represent their interests. medium and large private enterprise owners do not see any incompatibility between the associations’ dual functions of state control and member representation. Intriguingly, the more privatized and prosperous a locality is, the higher the likelihood that a private entrepreneur will view him or herself as a partner, not adversary, of the party-state “thick embeddedness” denotes that relations between China’s private business owners and the party-state feature a blend of material interest and benefit, and affective bonds. This affective element encompasses direct kinship ties and/or affective connections mediated by guanxi practices. Guanxi are reciprocal ties that center on informal and intimate networks of social exchange. Guanxi practices derive from China’s Confucian legacy, but have undergone substantial trans- formation during China’s socialist and post-socialist periods. In the post- 1978 period, guanxi practices have become broader in scope, forming networks of particularistic ties that are maintained and mobilized for combinations of instrumental and affective purposes Guanxi practices are an expression of a particular Chinese type of personal network. In it the relationship per se, that is, the affectionate/intimate aspect of the transaction comes first or at least is equally seen as an end in and of itself. Relationships are instrumental, but this aspect is layered with affectionate ties and the conscious building of trust (xinyong). In short, guanxi practices represent “strong ties,” ties that have enabled China’s private capital holders to establish longterm reciprocal personal relationships with the institutions and agents of the party-state.4 The result: frequent interactions, sentiments of familiarity and trust, and a “we-group” feeling toward each other that have closely aligned the interests of China’s private capital holders with those of the party-state, at least for the time being. scholars have investigated the ways in which “early” versus “late” economic development shapes the political attitudes and behavior of emergent socio-economic classes. In general, most agree that a group’s political attitudes and actions derive from its material interests (Bellin, 2000, p. 177). In Barrington Moore’s (1966) analysis of earlier capitalist developers, the rising capitalist class pushed for democracy as a way to challenge the feudal and/or authoritarian state that was perceived to be hostile to its interests. In Rueschemeyer et al.'s (1992) examination of mostly later developers, the working class was the champion of democratic reform. Yet even so, Rueschemeyer et al. emphasize that the working class has needed allies, especially in latedeveloping countries with smaller and weaker urban working classes. They note that, historically, other sectors – especially capitalists and intellectuals – whose interests have been harmed by an authoritarian political structure have played this role. Focusing more explicitly on later developers, Eva Bellin (2000, pp. 186 & 194) argues that the perceived material interests of labor and capital shape their political attitudes. For the capitalist class, dependence on the state and fear of working class inclusion may breed opposition to democracy and support for authoritarian stability. Similarly, when organized labor is dependent on the state and enjoys a privileged status relative to unorganized workers, it may oppose liberal political change as well. Clearly, the once dominant role of the capitalist class in pushing for political liberalization is reduced in later developers. “Embeddedness” refers to the fact that as individuals and institutions are engaged in ongoing social relations they cannot be understood as independent of one another (Granovetter, 1985, p. 182). Although all institutions and individuals are to some extent embedded in their sociopolitical environment, some are more embedded than others. “Political embeddedness” refers to the depth and extent of an individual’s or institution’s inter-relationship with the polity. Existing works on political embeddedness tend to focus on the political constraints that shape economic institutions – the embeddedness of economic relations in their political surroundings (Zukin and DiMaggio, 1990, pp. 20–23). Taking a slightly different approach, we contend that the political embeddedness of China’s private entrepreneurs with the agents and institutions of the party-state is characterized by a distinctive “thickness” – private capital holders are not only shaped by the structuring force of the party-state’s power; they are actively engaged in ongoing relations with the party-state and its actors – relations that are characterized by combinations of institutional, instrumental and affective ties that are inescapably linked with each other. 1. The state-created private firm: ZCC insider privatized TVE case of Z Chemical Corporation (ZCC), a former township and village enterprise, first type of large private enterprise owner emerged in reaction to the privatization of public sector enterprises, which picked up steam in the mid-1990s and then gained official support under the policy of fang xiao (“let go of the small”) in 1997. This group includes managers of stateowned enterprises and township and village enterprises who became the largest shareholders as these enterprises were transformed into limited liability corporations. Some entrepreneurs also purchased former state firms outright, often facilitated by their ties with local government officials. In most cases, these entrepreneurs gained the assets of the enterprise without being responsible for their debts or for guaranteeing continued employment to former workers. This group of large private business owners tends to be quite wealthy and has strong connections with the party-state Indeed, many of these enterprises have literally “grown out” of the state, benefiting from their prior history under public ownership to generate profits for their new private owners. ZCC began as a venture between a chemical research institute of a large Chinese province and a village at the outskirts of the provincial capital. The firm was founded in February 1985 as a township and village enterprise 100 percent owned by the village, though with technology and personnel transferred from the research center. By 2003 ZCC focused on manufacturing head gaskets, occupied three acres of factory space, employed more than 160 workers and had about 30 million yuan in sales. As in other parts of China, the collective ownership structure of ZCC underwent reform (gaizhi) by implementing a share- holding cooperative structure in 1998. Since ZCC was 100 percent owned by the village, the privatization process was solely managed by the village government. Higher government levels did not interfere because their objective was to get rid of small factories under public ownership. However, the township government one level above the village needed to be persuaded to approve the privatization arrangements; as a result, key officials received gifts and promises of future tax revenues. A few privileged employees, most of whom were connected to the village government, took control of ZCC in a process of insider privatization. The factory director, who also acted as the village head, gave up his government job to become the full- time chair of the new board of directors of ZCC. Other leaders of the village became members of ZCC’s management team. The new ownership structure therefore included the new chair (former village head) with 30 percent share ownership, the vice- chair (the former village Party secretary) with a bit more than 20 percent of the shares, a niece of the former village head and her husband each with a few percent of the shares, former/present long-term employees (employed prior to 1990) with a bit more than 20 percent of the shares, and a chief engineer from the chemical research institute who had worked at ZCC since its founding with 5 percent. The history of ZCC is typical of many privatized township and village enterprises. None of the managers invested a cent of their own money up until privatization. Rather, they used their knowledge, entrepreneurship, personal connections and government positions to access state assets and bank loans, which were used as investment capital. Subsequent to its privatization, ZCC’s continued development has been facilitated by its managers’ thick embeddedness with the agents and institutions of the local party-state. In sum, ZCC has grown out of the local state and remains linked to it via guanxi ties – instrumental, institutional and affective bonds that create sentiments of familiarity and trust. 2. The state official/actor created private firm – connections and background as able administrator are leveraged to create a private firm – X Real Estate – ownership interpenetration between state and private - private ownership under the protective hat of “state ownership.” The second category of large private enterprise owners resembles the first group in some key respects. Both benefited from close political connections, but the second type has not grown directly out of state ownership. Rather, these entrepreneurs have used their embeddedness in the party-state to gain insider information and/or market access, especially during the early phases of reform lasting from the late 1970s through the mid-1990s. For example, many profited from the dual-pricing structure for consumer and some industrial products that was established in 1985, reaping significant rewards from “buying low and selling high.” Similarly, starting in 1987 and lasting in most regions into the late 1990s, much stateowned land was leased to the private sector. This did not occur via a fair and open bidding process; to the contrary, those with close relations with party-state officials typically obtained the land, often at low prices. Subsequently, these real-estate entrepreneurs expanded into finance, construction, advertising and insurance. This second group of large private enterprise owners thus benefited from their privileged backgrounds, including relatively high levels of education and close relations with representatives of the party-state. The key founder, Mr. X, left his government job (xia hai) in 1992 and moved to Shenzhen. There he registered a trading company with a partner in Singapore and cultivated a guanxi network with several former classmates and colleagues who had started to work in the oil business in Shenzhen. As a result of this network of affective ties with long-term contacts, he invited a large Chinese state-owned oil company to take a 51 percent stake in the Singaporean company’s ownership. Mr. X and his partner kept the remaining 49 percent. Next, the trading company established a subsidiary in Shenzhen. Due to the state- owned oil company’s majority stake in the trading company, this subsidiary obtained a coveted license to import oil products cheaply and gain the difference between world market prices and higher prices in China – it “bought low and sold high.” Is this rent-seeking? As the China-based company’s profits bulged, it started to buy out the shares that the state-owned oil company owned in the Singapore trader. Both mother and daughter enterprises thus transitioned to full private ownership, but still were registered as state-owned entities from the Chinese government’s perspective. After policy changes regarding oil imports, both companies exited the oil business and used their capital to set up a real estate development company in a major province in China’s interior. Since it was established by a state-owned entity, the new real estate company was also regarded as state- owned; a factor beneficial to doing business in China’s politicized real estate market. The result was a paradoxical entity: a privately managed “state-owned” real estate developer – XRE. When a new land auction policy requiring that all land be sold by open tender began taking effect in the early 2000s, Mr. X and his partner sold a 51 percent stake in their “state-owned” XRE to a state-controlled enterprise (guojia konggu) that just had listed on Shanghai’s stock market. Again, this transaction could only take place because Mr. X had long-standing guanxi with a key official in the listed state-controlled enterprise. As Mr. X put it, “we will use whatever type of ownership structure is favorable to business and provides policy benefits and profit opportunities. At present, the best ownership form is to belong to a listed state corporation, since it gives us greater access to capital and better recognition by the government.” The price for the stake was 90 million yuan, all of which Mr. X and his partner pocketed. The urban district government with which XRE was officially registered as state-owned did not interfere, since XRE had never received any state investment. The district government actually feared that XRE might move its registration to another district and pleaded with it to continue its registration and local tax payments. XRE’s new-found status as part of a listed state-controlled corporation improved its opportunities to cultivate guanxi with powerful agencies in the local party-state, including the mayor’s office, the city’s economic commission, and various district governments. As a result, it gained better access to land, investment capital and regulatory approvals. Despite its state-controlled status, however, XRE has remained independent of party and state bodies. Its party committee, of which Mr. X is a member, is not appointed by any outside party body and mainly exists to leave a good impression on party-state officials. Therefore, what started as a rent- seeking opportunity in the oil trade morphed into a major real estate business. XRE is an unadulterated example of private ownership under the protective hat of “state ownership.” 3. Private firm with good state guanxi – T High Tech The third group of private enterprise owners encompasses entrepreneurs who generally have relied on their skills and savvy to grow businesses. By and large, they have attracted investment capital through the creation of technology-intensive and creative projects, and have not directly profited from their political connections. Most of their firms were founded after China’s market economy matured, that is, starting in the mid-1990s. T High-tech is an example of such a firm Even though private business owners of this type typically have not held formal political posts and have not profited directly from their ties with political officials, many have guanxi ties with agents and institutions of the party-state that have facilitated their success. Because China’s economy retains Leninist features – relevant to the case of T High-tech, for example, the major telecom providers are all state-controlled, and innovation in the industry has been heavily supported by government agencies – these ties have been extremely helpful, even for companies that have not profited through insider “deals.” For T High-tech, affective connections with relevant government entities and a partly government-owned joint- venture firm have been key in facilitating the firm’s success. Guanxi is not predatory and can be efficiency enhancing T High-tech was set up in the region’s premier industrial high-tech park, a key factor in the company’s success. The park management provided good infrastructure, did not discriminate against a small private start-up, and, most importantly, allowed T High-tech to register as a collective enterprise under the park’s management bureau. Unofficially, however, T High- tech remained a 50/50 venture between its two founders. In 1998, as China’s government encouraged fake collectives to re-register as actual private firms, the two founders decided to convert T High-tech into a limited liability corporation, a process that unfolded smoothly. By the early 2000s, T High-tech was able to penetrate China’s national telecom equipment market. Although the company has not relied on insider “deals,” its owners openly state that the firm’s profits have been driven by “guanxi sales.” As one owner put it: “Good guanxi with China’s large telecom providers (all of which are state-controlled) must be cultivated to be successful in this market.” T High-tech owners have engaged in constant communication and have had multiple meetings with the city government’s economic commission and, especially, the science and technology bureau. This interaction has been facilitated by mutually-beneficial instrumental incentives as well as pre-existing affective bonds. The most notable example of the intertwined nature of this guanxi is that the wife of one of the founders previously was the representative of a large state-owned electronics producer, giving her the opportunity to develop excellent guanxi with various local government agencies. She is now handling the public relations of T High-tech. Accordingly, T High-tech has gained considerable access to local government agencies and officials in charge of science and technology development. As the founders remarked, “We do not fear the government at all. They are our partners, especially the industrial high-tech park’s management (the park is government-owned and managed).” Indeed, there is now little predatory behavior from government agencies, according to the founders, and the city government has extended substantial support, facilitating T High-tech’s development. T High-tech reflects the great diversity of China’s private capital holders. While most large private firms are politically embedded in the party-state, some are more embedded than others. Clearly, T High-tech’s owners are less thickly embedded than their counterparts in ZCC and XRE. The latter two possess deep institutional and affective ties to power-holders in the partystate. Even so, T High-tech’s success has been facilitated by its intertwined affective and instrumental connections to science and technology agencies and large state-owned telecom providers. High-tech entrepreneurs have been given access to the Chinese party-state and, as a result, have nurtured guanxi ties with its officials. Despite high-tech entrepreneurs’ distance to the party-state relative to other types of private capital holders, they are embedded with its institutions and agents and feel little motivation to confront it. To the contrary, one of T Hightech’s founders states, “The government has been very supportive of our firm, and we try to support the government whenever we can.” The thick embeddedness of China’s capital holders in the state apparatus is not without precedent in Chinese history; it in many respects mimics relations between the state and the merchant/gentry classes in the late imperial era. At that point, a preference for interpersonal accommodation undermined China’s attempts to develop well-functioning bureaucracies with formalized and universally applicable rules (Mann, 1987; Boisot and Child, 1996). A reliance on personalized ties to undertake business dealings was strongly reinforced by state officials, since they viewed impersonal business dealings that could lead to the amassing of large fortunes as a potential threat to state dominance (Gates, 1996, p. 32). While China’s political economy differs in many respects from the late imperial political economy, the country might be slipping back into her pre-communist history of capitalist accumulation under state tutelage. Kellee S. Tsai Associate Professor of Political Science Johns Hopkins University Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on China’s Financial System August 22, 2006 By 2005, there were 29.3 million private businesses, employing over 200 million people and accounting for 49.7 percent of the GDP.1 Yet as of mid-2006, less than 1 percent of all loans extended by state commercial banks were going to private businesses, and private firms constitute less than 6 percent of those listed on China’s equity markets. my book Back-Alley Banking estimated that during the first two decades of reform informal finance accounted for up to three- quarters of private sector credit. A study conducted by a Chinese economist estimates that the total volume of curb market lending in 2003 ranged from 740.5 (US$91.42 billion) to 816.4 billion RMB (US$100.79 billion), which on average represents 28.07 percent of the total scale of lending by formal financial institutions there are four main reasons why private entrepreneurs have experienced considerable difficulty in borrowing from official banks. The first reason relates to political concerns about supporting the state sector and maintaining social stability. Until very recently, state banks have been pressured by local governments to provide soft loans to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as a means to avoid mass unemployment. (This is also one of the main reasons why state banks have such high levels of non-performing loans. The second reason derives from the developmental priorities of central and provincial governments. State banks may extend loans to enterprises in sectors that have been identified for preferential treatment as a matter of domestic industrial policy (e.g., automobiles, pharmaceuticals, computer components). This type of targeted lending is not corrupt or illegal per se; it is policy oriented. The third reason for the private sector’s exclusion from official credit relates to the limited organizational and technical capacity of state banks to serve the non-state sector. Credit officers have not been trained to evaluate loan applications according to commercial standards of creditworthiness, and until the late 1990s, they were not held accountable for high levels of non- performing loans in their portfolios Tsai - 3 reform, loan officers were reluctant to work with private entrepreneurs due to uncertainty about the potential consequences. Even though credit officers are now encouraged to lend to profitThe fourth and related reasonofwhy bank lending toremain privatewary entrepreneurs represents making businesses regardless ownership type, they about making bad loansato 8 miniscule proportionInofshort, official due toinstitutionally the ideological and political sensitivity private individuals. statecredit banksisremain biased against private sector ofclients. using9 party-state resources to support capitalist ventures. Especially during the first two decades of reform, loan officers were reluctant to work with private Informal Sources of uncertainty Private Finance entrepreneurs due to about the potential consequences. Even though credit officers are now encouraged to lend to profitmaking businesses In my Back-Alley Banking survey of private entrepreneurs, overregardless 70 percent of of ownership the type, they remain wary about making badmarket. loans toThe private individuals. respondents admitted to relying on the curb following table shows that the informal financing mechanisms used by private entrepreneurs have varying degrees of legality within China. Table 1. Overview of Curb Market Activities in China Legal Quasi-Legal Illegal Interpersonal Lending Rural Cooperative Foundations (illegal since 1999) Professional Brokers and Money Lenders (Loan Sharks) Trade Credit Private Money Houses Rotating Credit Associations (in some areas) Pawn Shops (in some areas) Shareholding Cooperatives Red Hat/Hang-on Enterprises Financial Societies/ Capital Mutual Assistance Associations Rotating Credit Associations (in some areas) Pyramidal Investment Schemes (scams) Pawn Shops (in some areas) Diversion of bank loans via state units Note: None of the practices/institutions in the second and third columns are sanctioned by the People’s Bank of China. Those in the first column are only “legal” if they do not entail the use of interest rates. “Quasi-legal” practices are those registered by a bureaucracy outside of the financial hierarchy. Source: Adapted from Back-Alley Banking, Table 2.3, p. 37. Starting from the legal end of the spectrum, financial regulators generally condone casual In reality, however, most forms of informal finance that private entrepreneurs use lending among friends and relatives as an innocuous form of mutual assistance at the grassroots fall intoInthe gray of quasi-legality. I mean the financial level. most partsarea of China, rotating credit By and “quasi-legal,” savings associations (ROSCAs) fall into this institutions that are not sanctioned by the People’s Bank of China, but are legally benign category of “popular finance” (minjian jinrong). ROSCAs became illegal in certain registered by another governmental localities because they mutated into ponziagency. schemes that adversely affected large portions of the local population, but generally speaking, informal financing strategies such as personal loans, Besides turning to informal financial intermediaries, private entrepreneurs also rely on 8 deceptive ways of raising capitalmeasures such asintended registering a business as a incollective Over the last three years, credit-tightening to quell excessive investment overheated sectors has reinforcedeven this reluctance. enterprise though the business is actually privately owned. This is called 9 “wearing a conversion red hat”ofbecause the color red A related Note that the urban credit cooperatives intosymbolizes city commercialcommunism. banks starting in 1997 was intended to strategy isavailability registering as a subsidiary of residents, a SOE,including which business is called a “hang-on” enhance the of commercial credit to urban owners. As of 2006 there were 117 urban commercial of which are starting to attract investment foreign Seename “Chinafor to the enterprise becausebanks, the some private business basically hangs onbyto the banks. SOE’s Merge 10 City Banks into One,” August 7, 2006 and “City Lenders Lure Foreign Investors,” China Daily, April 5, purpose of getting credit from state banks. Both red hat and hang-on enterprises are 2005. quasi-legal and generally left alone because they have formal registration status a conservative estimate would be that informal finance has accounted for at least one quarter of all financial transactions in the Chinese economy, and as mentioned above, the curb probably accounts for up to three-quarters of private sector finance. During periods of tighter credit controls, investors seeking higher returns divert their savings from formal financial institutions into the curb market. Although China’s private entrepreneurs share the structural condition of restricted access to formal bank credit, substantial variation exists among localities in the scope and scale of curb market finance. These differences are due to a combination of infrastructural, economic, and political factors. it is estimated that farmers and individual entrepreneurs in rural areas derive at least 70 percent of their capital requirements from the curb market.18 Second, the volume of curb market activity is higher in areas with more developed nonstate sectors because the demand for credit outstrips its official supply. This is especially the case in the coastal south. vibrant informal financial markets have flourished where the local government has protected curb market operators from the repeated disciplining efforts of state banking regulators. This variation in curb market activity reflects differences in the developmental orientation of local governments. In certain areas that were less industrialized on the eve of reform, however, local officials have allowed the establishment of quasi-legal and illegal financial institutions that compete with one another and infringe upon the business of official state banks. The case of Wenzhou in Zhejiang is the archetypal example of this situation. Wenzhou is also an example of a locality that consistently ignored national economic policies—but eventually managed to receive concessions from the center to experiment with alternative financial instruments. Wenzhou examples: higher interest rates to savers to attract funds Despite the explicit prohibition on private banks, Wenzhou’s entrepreneurs found alternative ways of registering their financial service operations (e.g., as urban credit cooperatives or regular businesses). Meanwhile, local officials maintained a highly defensive, if not defiant attitude towards national policies that constrained the innovative activities of its entrepreneurs. In 2003, when 71.8 percent of all financial transactions in Wenzhou were occurring outside of the formal banking system,25 the People’s Bank of China designated Wenzhou as an official experimental district for financial and banking reforms. Although Beijing is watching it closely, Wenzhou and other cities in Zhejiang province now have legal, commercial banks that are allowed to accept private investment, extend small loans (less than half a million RMB or about US$60,975), and float its interest rates. Most economists explain the rise of curb markets as reflecting the inability of the formal financial system to meet the needs of some portion of the economically active population. In other words, when the demand for credit exceeds the official supply of credit, would-be borrowers will turn to unofficial sources. This explanation makes particular sense for China during the 1980s when state banks engaged mainly in policy lending to state and collective enterprises, while private businesses were excluded from official bank credit. Based on the assumption that the private sector relies on informal finance due to its exclusion from the formal financial sector, both the central and local governments have implemented various reforms and initiated various experimental measures to increase the availability of credit to private entrepreneurs. I would like to conclude by emphasizing that local political and social factors also mediate the workings of the curb market. This means that increasing the availability of formal bank credit (and indeed, even microfinance) may reduce the overall volume of curb market transactions, but is not likely to eliminate them completely.31 The rationale for this contention is based on the observation that local political and economic actors in China often have interests that diverge from that of Beijing. China's banks Great Wall Street The rise of China’s state-backed banks is stunning. But success will force the model to change The Economist Jul 8th 2010 THERE is no more potent symbol of the relative decline of Western finance than the revolution in Chinese banking over the past decade. While American and European banks have been busy blowing up, China’s have been transformed from communist bureaucracies crippled by bad debts into something resembling world beaters. China’s rise is more solid than that of Japan’s banks in the 1980s. Finance has huge potential in China—less than 1% of AgBank’s retail customers have mortgages. And the country’s banks had a good crisis, largely because they never entirely left the government’s embrace. So although they make money and have the trappings of public companies, the state owns a majority stake and the Communist Party appoints the top brass, whose pay is a fraction of that of their Western peers. Those bosses, with their dual role as party bigwigs and chief executives, are beholden to a higher authority than the stockmarket. Their regulators, meanwhile, wield supposedly crude tools to control banks, such as lending caps and reserve ratios, long dismissed by “light touch” supervisors elsewhere. And the system is pretty closed. Some foreign banks have minority stakes in Chinese firms. But foreigners’ own operations on the mainland have a market share of less than 1% by profits, while Chinese banks make less than 4% of their profits abroad. As in 1999 after the Asian crisis, China’s politicians just cut out the middleman and told the banks to supply more credit. Loans grew spectacularly, from 102% of GDP in 2008 to 127% in 2009, funding everything from motorways through paddy fields to yuppie flats in Pudong. Growth stayed strong and China won many admirers. In India and Brazil it is no longer retrograde to argue that state-controlled banks should help counteract the economic cycle. Even in rich countries with privately owned banks, supervisors are eyeing the tools used by China’s regulators to control credit. Communist Party diktat has been relabelled as “macroprudential supervision”. A repeat performance is exactly what some fear after the latest binge. Most worrying are loans to infrastructure projects sponsored by local governments (perhaps a sixth of outstanding loans) and, given a frothy property market, real-estate financing and mortgages (a fifth of the total, with some overlap with infrastructure loans). China’s bankers say they are relaxed but some investors are kept awake by visions of corrupt officials, roads to nowhere and deserted shopping malls. Although potentially severe, these bad debts will not be the downfall of the Beijing model of banking. Even if a chunk of the loans is written off, the system can absorb the hit. That is partly thanks to an impressive regulator, which has prodded the banks to raise capital this year—by about an eighth, if all goes to plan. But it is mainly because of China’s high savings rate. With piles of excess deposits banks do not rely on fickle debt markets for funding. That buys them time to earn their way out of a bad-debt problem, using their high lending profits to replenish capital. As a backstop, China’s government, with little debt and large foreign reserves, has deep pockets. China’s banks could then end up looking a lot like banks elsewhere, although the state will still have control. Yet even that could change gradually. At current growth rates China’s banks will need capital injections every few years. The government may tire of these shakedowns—its participation in this year’s equity raisings has been a little grudging—and allow its stake to be diluted instead. And, as China’s banks claim their rightful place among the global leaders, they will find doing big foreign deals is hard when the government has a hand on the steering wheel. The rise of China’s banks is stunning and a little frightening. Yet they are not the pallbearers of market-based finance, just a work in progress.