1 Open Economy (a) Goods and Service Market: Supply of domestic output = Demand for domestic output Ys=Yd=Y, ⇒ Y=C+I+G+NX Trade Balance (NX) -- represents the flow of goods and services (royalty payments, interest payments, freight, etc), and transfer payments (grants, gifts). It is the net amount we receive from abroad in exchange for our net export of goods and services. -- This is also called the current account. If there is a current account deficit (NX<0), the U.S. consumes more than it produces. -- If there is a trade deficit (NX<0), the country’s sales of goods and services to foreigners are not sufficient to pay for its imports. The country must therefore be paying for the excess by selling assets to foreigners (i.e., a negative NFI). The converse also holds. See below for the NFI. (b) Financial Market (Loanable fund market) In a closed economy, national savings S is used to finance the domestic investment I, and the equilibrium condition of the G&S market is the same as S=I=(Y-C-G)=I In an open economy, national savings is used to finance domestic investment as well as foreign investment. Foreign country may also invest in the domestic market. Supply of funds = national saving + reverse foreign investment Demand for funds = domestic investment + foreign investment reverse foreign investment = inflow of funds from the rest of the world foreign investment = outflow of funds (investment) to the ROW Equilibrium supply=demand ⇒ S+reverse foreign investment = I + foreign investment ⇒ S=I+NFI The Net Foreign Investment (NFI) -- represents the flow of funds. If it is negative, it is a net inflow of funds. -- records borrowing and lending by banks, purchases and sales of assets, such as stocks, bonds and land -- The negative of NFI is also called the capital account (c) Balance of Payment (BOP) BOP = Current account + Capital account = NX-NFI -- If the balance of payments is not zero, then Official Reserve Transactions occur. If the U.S. has a BP deficit, then it has to pay for it with gold or by drawing down the international reserve at the IMF (International Monetary Fund). -- In the long run equilibrium, BOP must be zero: that is, BOP=0 ⇒ NX=NFI 2 Determinants of C, I, G, NX and NFI Consumption: C = C(Y-T) Investment: I = I(r) ̅ ....Exogenous Government: G= G ̅ Net Taxes: T=T .... Exogenous Net export: NFI: NX=NX() NFI=NFI(r-r*) = real exchange rate r*= interest rate of foreign countries Exchange Rate -- A Determinant of Trade Balance (Current Account) NX Nominal Exchange Rate Relative price of two currencies. This can be expressed as the amount of foreign currency that can be bought with $1. (Or the amount of dollars that can be bought with one German Mark or one British Pound.) -- Depreciation or Appreciation of the dollar: Decrease or increase in the exchange rate -- Exchange Rate System: Floating, or Fixed, or Managed (or Dirty) Floating -- Spot or Forward Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rate (Terms of Trade) Relative price of goods in two countries. This is expressed as the number of bottles of French wine that can be bought with one bottle of U.S. wine. -- Real exchange rate depends on the nominal exchange rate and the prices of goods measured in domestic currencies. -- Let P dollars and P* Francs be the prices of the good measured in domestic currencies in each country. Let e be the nominal exchange rate (number of Francs per dollar). If you give up one unit of the good in the U.S., you get $P, which can be converted into eP Francs in the foreign exchange market. Then you can buy eP/P* units of French good. Therefore, the real exchange rate (terms of trade) is eP * P -- If the nominal exchange rate is fixed, an increase in the domestic price (P) increases the real exchange rate, and an increase in the foreign price decreases the real exchange rate. -- If the nominal exchange rate falls (dollar depreciates, dollar becomes weak), the real exchange rate also falls. Real Exchange Rate and Net Exports: NX = NX() If the real exchange rate falls, foreign goods become relatively more expensive compared to the domestic goods. This tends to reduce imports and increase exports, and hence the net exports increase. If rises, the converse holds. Thus, the net export (current account) has a negative relationship with . Net Foreign Investment (NFI) The NFI depends on the difference in returns of domestic asset and foreign asset. If the difference r-r* rises, the NFI falls as domestic investors invest more on the domestic asset and foreign investors also invest in the domestic country. Therefore, the NFI has a negative relation with r-r* The sensitivity of the NFI to a change in r-r* depends on how freely funds can flow from a country to another country. We will consider two cases: 3 Perfect capital mobility: capital can flow freely from one country to another (no restrictions on foreign investments) Imperfect capital mobility: there are restrictions on foreign investment, or differences in the risk (a) Perfect Capital Mobility -- If the rate of return from foreign assets is higher than the rate of return from the domestic asset, risk neutral investors will put all their wealth into foreign asset. This will reduce the yield of foreign asset. This process will continue until the rates of return from domestic and foreign assets are equal, i.e., r=r*, where risk neutral investors become indifferent between the two assets. -- Consider a small country that has a negligible effect on the world equilibrium interest rate r* at which world savings equals world investment. For such a small country domestic interest rate will adjust to the world interest rate. This can be considered as a perfectly elastic NFI(r-r*) function with respect to the domestic interest rate r, given r*. (b) Imperfect Capital Mobility -- Transactions cost, risk averseness of investors, government regulations and other factors impede perfect capital mobility. The net foreign investment can be considered as a decreasing function of the difference in the interest rates r-r*. Equilibrium in Loanable fund market and foreign Exchange market Equilibrium conditions: Loanable fund market: S(Y,G,T)-I(r)=NX( S(Y,G,T)=Y-C(Y-T)-G Balance of Payment (foreign exchange market): NX(=NFI(r-r*) Assumptions (a) G, T, r* are exogenous. (b) To simplify the analysis and to focus on the determination of r and , we will assume that Y is predetermined, i.e., Y = ̅ Y. This assumption is usually justified by considering the production sector, in which the output is determined by factor market equilibrium: equilibrium inputs of labor and physical capital. Under these assumptions, we find the equilibrium r and Once these equilibrium values are found, other endogenous variables I, NX and NFI are determined. Since we assume that total output is predetermined, we are looking for how this total output is divided among consumption, domestic investment, net export and foreign investment. Under assumption (b), the national saving S is also predetermined, that is, it does not depend on r nor on ̅ = S̅ ̅−T ̅) − G Y=̅ Y ⇒ S=̅ Y − C(Y 4 Small Open Economy with perfect capital mobility and risk neutrality We have argued that, under perfect capital mobility, r=r* and NFI(r-r*) is perfectly elastic with respect to the domestic interest rate r, given world interest rate r*. Therefore, NFI = S̅ − I(r ∗ ) The real exchange rate is then determined in the foreign exchange market 𝑁𝑋(𝜖) = 𝑁𝐹𝐼 = 𝑆̅ − 𝐼(𝑟 ∗ ) Following graphs illustrate these processes. S r NFI NFI r0 = r* 0 A NFI I(r) 0 I0 S0 NX( ) I, S,NFI 0 NX 0 NX,,NFI Notes: (i) In a closed economy without international capital flow, the domestic interest rate will be determined at point A, where savings equal investment. The domestic interest rate at point A is below world interest rate, which will cause the outflow of capital and raises the interest rate to world interest rate. (ii) At the equilibrium, this economy has a trade surplus (NX>0), which is matched by the equal amount of NFI. (iii) If NX()>NFI at any exchange rate , the demand for dollars is greater than the supply of dollars in the exchange market, and this pushes down, and vice versa. The real exchange rate can change if either the nominal exchange rate e, or domestic price P, or foreign price P* changes. Typically, it is the nominal exchange rate that changes in a clean floating system. Policy Effects - Small Open Economy Consider a small open economy whose current equilibrium is at r0=r*, I0, S0, NFI0 and 0 in the figures above. We analyze the effects of changes in G, T, and other exogenous variables on the endogenous variables. [A] The Effect of an Increase in Government Purchase G An increase in G by G reduces the public saving by the same amount, while private saving is unchanged in the current model. This shifts the savings curve S̅ to the left by G. 5 r Effect of an Increase in G S S Effect of an Increase in G 0 1 NFI1 NFI0 G —— G —— 1 NFI r1=r0=r* 0 I(r) 0 I0=I1 S1 S0 NX( ) I, S,NFI 0 NX 1 NX 0 NX,,NFI In a small open economy, interest rate does not change r1=r0=r*, and hence investment is not affected (I1=I0). The trade surplus is reduced from NX0 to NX1, and capital outflow is also reduced from NFI0 to NFI1, and the real exchange rate has increased from 0 to 1. An increase in G reduces S ⇒ excess demand for loanable fund ⇒ pushes domestic interest rate r up ⇒ ⇒ reduce foreign investment and/or increase reverse foreign investment, and I decreases ⇒ domestic interest rate falls back to the initial rate which is r * and I rises back to the initial level. ⇒ the net effect is a decrease in NFI ⇒ a lower NFI reduces demand for foreign currency ⇒ value of foreign currency drops ⇒ nominal exchange rate rises ⇒ real exchange rate rises [B] The Effect of an Increase in Tax T An increase in tax by T reduces the disposable income (Y-T) by T, which reduces the consumption C by C=MPCxT. This increases the national saving S by S=MPCxT, which shifts the S curve to the right by S=MPCxT. In a closed economy this reduces the equilibrium interest rate and increases investment by S. In a small open economy, the equilibrium interest rate stays the same at r* and hence investment is not affected. There is an increase in trade surplus (current account surplus) and an increase in capital outflow (NFI) to other countries. The real exchange rate decreases. [C] The Effects of Increases in G and T by the same amounts (G=T): Balanced Budget Effect An increase in G by G reduces the national saving: S = -G. An increase in T by T increases the national saving: S = MPCxT. Net effect on the national saving: S = -G + MPCxT = -(1-MPC)G. Since MPC<1, net national saving is lower. The net effect is similar to the case of an increase in G, except that magnitudes of the effects are smaller in this case. [D] The Effects of an Increase in Autonomous Investment: Shift-Out of the Investment Curve In a closed economy, this increases the interest rate and reduces the non-autonomous investment; these two effects exactly offset each other. At the new equilibrium in a closed economy, the interest rate is higher and the investment is the same as before. This is because the supply of loanable funds is fixed at 𝑆̅ 6 In a small open economy, a shift out of the investment schedule does not affect the equilibrium interest rate, reduces trade surplus and NFI. The real exchange rate increases. [E] A Fiscal Expansion Abroad When foreign governments increase their government purchases, it reduces world saving and hence increases world interest rate r*. This reduces domestic investment, increases trade surplus and NFI. The real exchange rate decreases. Show this in the graphs. [F] Protectionist Trade Policies (Import Tariffs and/or Import Quotas) They initially increase NX by reducing imports and/or increasing exports at any exchange rate, which implies a right-ward shift of the NX curve. But this raises until NX=NFI again. A higher means a smaller export and hence, the international trade volume falls. There is a loss in the benefits from trade, although a certain group benefits from the trade restrictions. As long as the trade policies do not affect the capital account, the current account is not affected under the floating exchange rate system. ̅ [G] The Effect of an Increase in income 𝒀 ̅ An increase in income by 𝑌 increases the national saving S by S=(1-MPC)x𝑌̅, which shifts the S curve to the right. In a closed economy this reduces the equilibrium interest rate and increases investment by S. In a small open economy, the equilibrium interest rate stays the same at r* and hence investment is not affected. There is an increase in trade surplus (current account surplus) and an increase in capital outflow (NFI) to other countries. The real exchange rate decreases. Remarks on Determinants of the Nominal Exchange Rate 𝑒𝑃 𝑃∗ 𝜖𝑃∗ 𝑃 Real Exchange Rate: 𝜖= Nominal Exchange Rate: e= -- Given the real exchange rate, the nominal exchange rate falls as domestic price rises and/or foreign price falls. -- Changes in over time: %∆𝑒 ≈ %∆𝜀 + %∆𝑃∗ − %∆𝑃 -- If the foreign country has a higher inflation rate than the U.S., then the nominal exchange rate rises at the rate of the difference in the inflation rates. That is, dollar becomes more valuable. Purchasing Power Parity -- International arbitrage -- Prices of traded goods should be the same everywhere, after adjusting for customs duties and transportation costs. That is, the real exchange rate must be equal to 1. 𝜖= 𝑒𝑃 𝑃∗ =1 -- If <1, then P < P*/e. Arbitragers will buy in the U.S. paying price P and sell it in France at P* Francs, which will converted into P*/e dollars in the exchange market. This gives per unit profit of (P*/e - P) dollars, assuming no other costs involved. -- Is PPP valid? Issues of non-traded goods and services and heterogeneity of goods and services. 7 Imperfect Capital Mobility The net foreign investment function NFI(r-r*) is not perfectly elastic at the world interest rate r*. The figure on the left hand side below shows the downward sloping NFI curve, passing through r* point, and the horizontal sum of I and NFI curves (I+NFI). S r NFI r* 0 r0 I+NFI NFI(r-r*) I(r) 0 I0 NX( ) I, S,NFI S0 0 NX 0 NX,,NFI The domestic equilibrium interest rate is determined at r0 where 𝑆̅ = 𝐼 + 𝑁𝐹𝐼. At r=r0, I=I0 and 𝑁𝐹𝐼 = 𝑆̅ − 𝐼. Given this NFI, the real exchange rate is determined at 0 where NX(0)=NFI. Comparative Statics -- Analyze the effects of changes of exogenous variables as above for this case. (a) Effects of an Expansionary Domestic Fiscal Policy: increase in G 𝑆̅ line shifts to the left r I and NFI and NX (b) Effects of an Increase in Autonomous Investment As I curve shifts to the right, I+NFI line also shifts to the right by the same distance. The new I curve and the new I+NFI curve cross each other at r=r*. The equilibrium domestic interest rate rises to r1, which reduces NFI. The shift of NFI in the right hand side figure (see below) shows an increase in to 1 and a decrease in NX to NX1. An increase in autonomous investment will increase I if r does not change. An increase in the equilibrium r partially offsets the initial increase in I. The net effect is an increase in I to I1. To summarize: S r NFI 1 r* r1 r0 0 I+NFI NFI(r-r*) I(r) 0 I 0 I 1 S0 r, I, NFI, and NX NX( ) I, S,NFI 0 NX 1 NX 0 NX,,NFI 8 (c) Effects of a Fiscal Expansion Abroad: An increase in world interest rate r* S r NFI r1* r0* 0 c r1 r0 a b 1 I+NFI NFI(r-r*) I(r) 0 I1 I0 S0 NX( ) I, S,NFI 0 NX 0 NX 1 NX,,NFI An increase in the world interest rate r* from 𝑟0∗ to 𝑟1∗ shifts the NFI(r-r*) curve to the right. The new NFI curve crosses the vertical axis at 𝑟1∗ . The shift of the NFI line also shifts the I+NFI line to the right by the same horizontal distance as the shift of the NFI line. The new equilibrium domestic interest rate is r1 where 𝑆̅ is equal to the new I+NFI. The increase in r reduces the domestic investment I to I1. The decrease in I implies an increase in NFI because 𝑁𝐹𝐼 = 𝑆̅ − 𝐼. This can also be seen from the left figure. A shift of NFI line indicates that the NFI increases from point a to b if r stays the same at r0. However, an increase in r to r1 reduces the NFI to point c, partially offseting the initial increase of the NFI. This increase in NFI reduces the real exchange rate to 1. To summarize, r, I, NFI, and NX. (d) Effects of Protectionist Trade Policies: This simply shifts the NX line to the right, and hence the real exchange rate rises. There are no other effects on the endogenous variables. 9 Alternative Approach The analysis above requires two graphs to determine the equilibrium and the effects of changes in exogenous variables. It could be useful if we can construct one graph to do the same. The equilibrium conditions in goods and service market and foreign exchange market are ̅ + NX(ϵ) ̅ ̅−T ̅) + I(r) + G G&S market: Y = C(Y * FX market: NX(𝜖=NFI(r-r ) We need to find the interest rate r and the exchange rate that satisfy the equilibrium conditions in both markets for given exogenous variables. We will first find all possible pairs of r and that satisfy the equilibrium condition in the G&S market. Suppose that (r1, 1) at point A in the figure below satisfies the G&S market equilibrium condition. If the interest falls to r2<r1 and the exchange rate stays at 1 (i.e., point B), there will be an excess demand for goods and services because the investment demand is higher. What must happen to to restore the equilibrium? Should it be higher or lower than 1? Since NX is negatively related to , the exchange rate must increase to reduce the demand and thereby restore the equilibrium. That is, the new equilibrium exchange rate 2 at interest rate r2 must be higher than 1. This line of reasoning indicates that the collection of all pairs of interest rate and exchange rate that will clear the G&S market will form a negatively sloped line as shown by the line GSE in the figure below. r r GSE GSE FXE r1 •A r2 •B ESG EDF EDG EDF r0 FXE ES G ESF r4 r3 •F •H EDG ESF 1 3 2 4 0 The same type of logics indicates that the collection of all pairs of r and that will clear the FX market will form a positively sloped line. An increase in from 3 to 4 reduces NX (demand for dollars by foreign importers). To restore the equilibrium in the FX market, NFI must also fall (i.e., supply of dollars through NFI must fall). This requires an increase in domestic interest rate r so that domestic investors' foreign investment falls and/or foreign investors' investment in the U.S. rises. The equilibrium interest rate r0 and exchange rate 0 are determined where the two equilibrium lines intersect each other. The right hand side figure indicates the market conditions when the economy is not at equilibrium. The arrows indicate the adjustments of r and : if the G&S market is out of equilibrium the interest rate adjusts, and if FX market is out of equilibrium the exchange rate adjusts. 10 Comparative Statics (a) Effects of an Expansionary Domestic Fiscal Policy An increase in G or a decrease in T shifts the GSE line to the right/upward. This is because an increase in G creates an excess demand and interest rate must increase to offset the excess demand by reducing the investment (or the exchange rate must increase to reduce NX). Thus, the equilibrium r and increase and thereby reduce I and NX. An increase in r also reduces NFI. The change in I and NX must sum to the change in G. To trace the responses of r and to an increase in G, we will assume that any disequilibrium (either excess demand or excess supply) in the G&S market will make r to change to restore the equilibrium any disequilibrium (either excess demand or excess supply) in the FX market will make to change to restore the equilibrium EDGS and ESGS: Excess demand for and excess supply of goods and services EDFX and ESFX: Excess demand for and excess supply of dollars in foreign exchange market Starting from an initial equilibrium G↑ EDGS r↑ I↓ EQGS NFI ↓ EDFX 𝜖 ↑ NX↓ EQFX ESGS ESGS r↓ I↑ EQGS NFI ↑ ESFX 𝜖 ↓ NX↑ EQFX EDGS This process continues until both markets reach a new equilibrium. r GSE 1 FXE GSE 0 r1 r0 0 1 (b) Effects of an Increase in Autonomous Investment This also shifts the GSE line upward, causing an increase in r and , and reducing NX and NFI. What about the investment? An increase in r offsets the initial increase in autonomous investment, but the net 11 effect is an increase in I. This is because the net change in I and the change in NX must sum to zero to maintain the GS market equilibrium. (c) Effects of a Fiscal Expansion Abroad: An increase in world interest rate r* This increases the NFI which creates an excess supply of dollars in the FX market. To restore the equilibrium in the FX market, the exchange rate must decrease which will increase NX and thereby the demand for dollars. Or the domestic interest rate must increase to match the increase in foreign interest rate. This indicates that the FXE line must shift to the left/upward. The equilibrium r increases and the equilibrium falls. Hence, NX rises, investment falls, and NFI increases. The increase in NFI indicates that the domestic interest rate does not rise as much as the foreign interest. (d) Effects of Protectionist Trade Policies This shifts both GSE and FXE lines to the right. The horizontal distances of the shifts are identical. (Why?) Therefore, there is no change in r and rises. The increase in reduces NX back to the initial level. Magnitude of the Effects Consider two countries which are identical except for the interest elasticity of investment. What is the difference in the effect of an expansionary fiscal policy between the two countries? To answer this question, we need to know the difference in the GSE line and the difference in its shift in response to an increase in G between the two countries. Let the interest elasticity of investment be denoted by 𝜃. 𝜃= interest elasticity of investment Difference in the slope of the GSE line A decrease in r by ∆r increase in I by ∆I ∆I is greater if 𝜃 is higher: ∆IH > ∆IL The excess demand for G&S caused by falling r is greater in a country with a higher 𝜃 To restore the equilibrium in the G&S market, the exchange rate 𝜖 must increase more in a country with a higher 𝜃. Therefore, the GSE line is flatter in a country with a higher 𝜃. Difference in the shift of the GSE line as G increases We can consider the shift as a horizontal shift or a vertical shift. A horizontal shift means an increase in the exchange rate while holding the interest rate r constant, and the vertical shift means an increase in the interest rate while holding the exchange rate ∈ constant. Consider first the horizontal shift Does an increase in G shift the GSE line horizontally by the same distance or by different distances between the two countries of different interest elasticity of investment? Answer: An increase in G by ∆G creates excess demand in the G&S market by that much. To restore the equilibrium while holding the interest rate constant, the exchange rate must rise by a sufficient amount to reduce NX by ∆G. Since the exchange rate elasticity of NX is the same between the two countries, the exchange rage must rise by the same amount. That is, an increase in G shifts the GSE line horizontally by the same distance in both countries. Consider the vertical shift 12 An increase in G by ∆G creates excess demand in GS market by that much. To restore the equilibrium while holding the exchange rate constant, r must rise by a sufficient amount to reduce I by ∆G. Which country will have to raise r more to restore the GS market equilibrium without changing exchange rate? A high interest elasticity of investment means that investment falls (rises) a lot when interest rate rises (falls). If the elasticity is high, we don't have to raise r a lot to reduce I by ∆G. Therefore, the interest rate must rise more in a country with a lower interest elasticity of investment. That is, the GSE line shifts more in a country with a lower interest elasticity when G increases. Note: A similar reasoning leads to the conclusion that an increase in G shifts the GSE line to the right by a larger amount when the exchange rate elasticity of net export is lower. The figure below shows two GSE lines of high and low interest elasticity of demand and their shifts when G increases. It shows that GSE lines shift to the right by the same distance, which leads to different effects on the equilibrium r and . Interest rate and exchange rate rise more in a county of a lower 𝜃. Therefore, Investment falls more and NX falls more in a country of a lower 𝜃. r GSE L FXE GSE H r1L r1H r0 • 0 13 The role of the exchange rate elasticity of NX Suppose that two countries are identical except for the exchange rate elasticity of net export. This difference affects both the GSE and the FXE lines. Let this elasticity be denoted by 𝛿. 𝛿= exchange rate elasticity of net export Using the same line of thought as before, it is straightforward to show GSE line: steeper for the country with a higher 𝛿 FXE line: steeper for the country with a higher 𝛿 The figure below shows different effects of an increase in G between two countries of nonidentical exchange rate elasticity of NX. Note that the vertical shifts of GSE lines are identical because we assume here that the interest elasticity of investment is the same between two countries. The equilibrium exchange rate rises less in the country with a higher 𝛿. But the effect on the equilibrium interest rate is uncertain though the figure below shows a little higher r in the country with a higher 𝛿. r GSE 1H GSE 0H FXE H • FXE L r1H r0 GSE 1L GSE 0L 0 1H 1L Exercises Conduct various comparative static analyses when two countries are identical except for (1) interest elasticity of investment (2) exchange rate elasticity of net export (3) interest elasticity of net foreign investment 14 A special case - perfectly elastic NFI The slope of the FXE line depends on the elasticity of NFI with respect to r. If NFI is very sensitive to a change in r, the slope of FXE line becomes flatter. In the extreme case of perfectly elastic NFI, the FXE line becomes flat at r=r*. This is the case of perfect capital market. Any factor that shifts the GSE line upward (to right) will increase the exchange rate and reduce NX, but has no effect on domestic interest rate. r Perfectly elastic NFI GSE0 GSE1 r* FXE 0 1 15 Alternative Consumption Function: C=C(Y-T, r) The equilibrium conditions in goods and service market and foreign exchange market are ̅ + NX(ϵ) ̅ = C(Y ̅−T ̅, 𝑟) + I(r) + G G&S market: Y * FX market: NX(𝜖=NFI(r-r ) Case 1. Perfect capital mobility and risk neutrality NFI(r-r*) is perfectly elastic with respect to the domestic interest rate r, given world interest rate r* and hence, r=r*. Therefore, the only remaining variable is the exchange rate. This is determined in the G&S market equilibrium condition. r NFI S NFI r0 = r* 0 A NFI NX( ) I(r) 0 I0 S0 I, S,NFI 0 NX0 NX, NFI Case 2. Imperfect capital mobility The equilibrium line FXE is the same as the line we discussed earlier. The equilibrium line GSE is essentially the same as the line we discussed earlier. The difference is the slope of GSE. The GSE line is flatter when the consumption is negatively related with r than when C is not related with r. This can be explained by following the same line of thought. Suppose that (r1, 1) satisfies the G&S market equilibrium condition. If the interest falls to r2<r1 and the exchange rate stays at 1 (i.e., point B), there will be an excess demand for goods and services. The size of the excess demand is greater when C depends on r than when C does not depend on r. This is because not only the investment demand is higher, but also the consumption demand is higher as r falls. Therefore, must increase more now than when C does not depend on r. This leads to a flatter GSE line.