Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing
Past and Future Development of National
Innovation System
Torsti Loikkanen, Toni Ahlqvist
VTT Innovation Studies
Pekka Pellinen
The Finnish Association of Graduate
Engineers TEK
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Content of presentation
1. Introduction – why Technology Barometer?
2. Purpose and methodology
3. Theoretical background
4. Results of Technology Barometer
• Indicator based comparison
• Survey study of future visions
5. Conclusions
• Technology Barometer as an instrument for
policy-making
• Further development
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Introduction – Why Technology Barometer?
• International comparisons of the competitiveness and economic and
innovation performance of nations
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Introduction
Why Technology Barometer?
• International discussion of performance comparisons
– Heterogeneity of comparisons: reliability of data, methodology, purpose...
– “…indicators, if poorly constructed, can have even misleading policy messages”
(Nardo et al. 2005; Freudenberg 2003)
• National controversy regarding the reliability of performance comparisons
– Backward looking mirror perspective – use for future oriented planning?
– Composition of respondents in comparisons (e.g. business executives)
• Initiative of The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (TEK)
– National comparative exercise on own terms is needed
– Entails comparative country study based on indicators of past development, and
future oriented visionary survey
– Methodology development with VTT Innovation Studies 2002 - 2003
– Technology Barometer published three times, in 2004, 2005 and 2007
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Technology Barometer
Purpose, methodology and theoretical background
• Produces data of how favorable and competitive
national innovation environment is now and in the
future
– Takes into account path and history dependence:
future-oriented knowledge shall be properly
interlinked to past development path
– Both parts of TB follow by and large the same
structure allowing the linking of ex-post and ex-ante
to each other
• Any indicator system needs a sound theoretical
basis - TB is based on studies of the dynamic
evolution of various development stages of a
modern society after the industrialization - from
information society to knowledge society to
sustainable knowledge-value society
– E.g. Bell 1976; Masuda 1980; Sakaiya 1991;
Castells 1996, 1997, 1998
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Technology Barometer
Theoretical background
• Indicators of TB are structured correspondingly among different
development stages of a modern society
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Technology Barometer
Theoretical background and indicators
• Information society produces, processes, disseminates and exploits
information
– Indicators like basic education, schooling, skills and knowledge of general
public, private and public investments in R&D
• Knowledge society produces commodities of high knowledge value
– Indicators like human and intellectual capital investments in S&T, applications
of ICT, outcomes of these investments as R&D productivity
• Elements of knowledge-value society are innovation, technology
development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas and their
active exploitation, contributing to the basic values and culture of society
– Indicators like entrepreneurship and venturing, innovation networking, and
adaptations of innovative practices in a nation.
• Moreover TB indicates how effectively the development complies with the
principles of sustainable development
– Indicators like social values, environmental responsibility, environmental
systems
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Results of indicator based comparison
Indicator based comparison
• Interpretation or results, e.g.
– IS: Finland and Nordic
countries
– KS: Sweden getting stronger
– KVS: Netherlands, USA
– SD: E.g. Finland, Sweden
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Results of indicator based comparison
Indicator based comparison
• Positioning Finland in TB 2007:
Finland’s above-average or belowaverage rating in comparison to
reference group (the y axis), and
whether any improvement or
deterioration has taken place (the
x axis) in comparison to the
previous survey (*)
• Results f.ex.
– deterioration in technoscientific competence
– exploitation of ICT weakest
partial area
– positive development in
entrepreneurship and
openness to internationalism
(*) Technique: Each partial area is measured by using a combined
indicator in order to calculate an arithmetic average value of several
statistical indicators’ normalised values between -2 and +2
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Survey study of future visions
Four parts with partial indicators
– Competence and knowledge generation:
techno-scientific competence prospects and
young people’s interest in a number of
professions
– Knowledge society development: Finnish
research activities, the prevailing state of
technology development and various societal
institutions, which have an impact on research
and on societal development in general
– Innovative society: level of investment,
entrepreneurial activity and impact of technology
development on the quality of life
– Sustainable development: environmental
threats, the state of the environment, and action
taken by the authorities
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Survey study of future visions
Respondents
– Members of The Finnish Association
of Graduate Engineers (TEK) (86)
– Youth: six secondary school classes
from different parts of Finland (272)
– Politicians (22): Members of Future
committee of Parliament, directors of
province administrations, chairpersons
of city councils of seven largest towns
– Industry: One hundred largest
companies ranked according to R&D
investments
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Survey study of future visions
Results (examples)
– Politicians more optimistic than professional
engineers or company executives about
country’s techno-economic development
• Raised worries in media after TB publication
– Assessments of youth points out that in the
future S&T will be increasingly followed
through means of interactive, instantly
updated electronic media
• These areas attract youth also in the future
– Role of user-produced content in media will
increase
– In theme of education e.g. a number of
questions arise like the idea of including
interactive and mobile media skills to
science education curriculum at elementary
level
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Technology Barometer
Synthesizing discussion of indicator and surveys studies
Three cross-cutting themes:
– Changing role of knowledge-intensive work e.g.
• new aspects introduced into this role in particular
– Innovations and business e.g.
• How to convert ideas into products and market them with increasing
efficiency
• Identification requires competence development, in basic technologies and
business thinking alike, so as to generate product concepts with increasing
initiative and courage.
– Education structures
• Finland is relatively successful in basic education
• New challenges are emerging, as indicated in the need for the skills in critical
interactive media reading
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Conclusions
TB as an instrument for policy-making
– TB is aimed at providing guidance for technology related actions
beneficial for the society
• Arising need of strengthening links between foresight activities, policy
development and actual technological development
– Key role of TB is to analyze past and future oriented data and
synthesize that into meaningful conclusions
– Transparency is of paramount importance to retain the attention of the
target groups and to avoid confusion among audience
– TB proven to be capable of casting light into “black boxes” of NIS by
focusing decision-makers attention to core subjects
– TB has been received positively in political arena, and has become an
established point of reference among cabinet members,
parliamentarians and politicians
– Wide interest is indicated e.g. by numerous articles in newspapers and
professional journals
Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS
Conclusions
Further development
– The plan to publish TB at appropriate intervals of 2 – 3 years
– Timing depends on factors affecting national economy and
innovation system
– The content will be further developed, however, without
jeopardizing its nature as barometer, i.e. comparison of
latest with previous ones shall be possible
– Recent changes of Finnish innovation policy will be taken
into account in further development of structure and content
Technology Barometer 2007 downloadable in
of TB
http://www.tek.fi/ci/pdf/teknologia/Technology_Barometer_2007.pdf
– More systemic integration of evaluative impact assessment,
risk analysis and foresight approaches – strategic policy
intelligence - into TB?
– Towards international collaboration?
Thank You For
Your Attention!