China’s Rise and Cyberspace:
Strategic Challenges for the U.S.
James Mulvenon, Ph.D.
10 September 2009
Outline
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US-PRC strategic cyber dilemmas
Beijing’s strategic perspective on cyberspace
China and cyber as a tool of state power
Chinese military views of computer network
operations
• US, China, and cyberspace: the long-term view
US-PRC Strategic Cyber Dilemmas
• China: cyber threat, world’s IT workshop, or both?
• US-China cyber dilemma as microcosm of larger USChina strategic relationship
• US-China vs. US-USSR
• Bilateral relations = difficult tradeoffs
Beijing’s and Cyberspace:
Contradictions, Anyone?
• Chinese philosophy and Hegelian/Marxist “science”
centers on contradictions and their resolution
• China’s great information security “balancing act”
– Desire: Access to global technology R&D and production
– Desire: Connection to global information grid
– Fear: Use of ICTs to undermine Beijing government
• Myths about the Internet and authoritarian regimes
– How has China beaten the odds?
China and Cyber
as a Tool of State Power
• China and Russia: cyber is a legitimate element of
state power
– Examples: patriotic hackers, Estonia, Georgia
– More comfortable than US in overt use
– Publicity and public opprobrium have had no effect
• Uses of cyber
– Cyber/technology espionage
– Intelligence preparation of the battlefield
– Psyops, influence operations, denial and deception
Chinese Military Views on
Computer Network Operations
• Why the PLA is attracted to CNO
– Range and targets
– US dependencies and vulnerabilities
• How would the PLA use CNO
– CNO and the Taiwan scenario centers of gravity
– Connection to the “intrusion set”
• Assessing PLA cyber capabilities
• Implications of PLA CNO for US defense
– Attribution challenges
– Deterrence challenges
US, China, and Cyberspace:
The Long-Term View
• Short-term: cyber espionage
• Short-medium term: CNO and the Taiwan scenario
• Long-term
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Supply chain
CFIUS
Infrastructure
Internet governance
IT standards