Ministerial Forum on Homelessness and
Social Housing
Where we are today
Dr Ian Winter
Executive Director
Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute
Presentation to Victorian
Ministerial Forum
Ian Winter
Executive Director, AHURI
Purpose
 Evidence foundation for today’s discussion
 Sharpen definition of ‘the housing problem(s)’
 Identify solutions fit for addressing those
problems
Structure
 Backdrop of long-run changes in the structure
and dynamics of Australia’s housing system
 Focus in on Victoria with a view to clarifying the
differing nature of the housing problems we face
 Overview the policy interventions that are fit-forpurpose, given the nature of the problem(s)
Part one
Long-run changes in the
Australian housing system
Housing System Snapshot
No stable
housing
~105k people
Renters
30%
Social
housing
5%
Public
housing
~338k
dwellings
Owners
67%
Private
market
25%
Community
housing
~82k
dwellings
Mortgage
holders
35%
Outright
owners
32%
Note: 934 470 unoccupied private
dwellings in 2011
Percent of 7.76m occupied dwellings from ABS 2011 Census and 2013 admin
data (includes Indigenous community housing and state owned and managed
Indigenous housing)
Fewer households in the most
secure tenures
Public housing and outright ownership
Source: ABS 4130
… and rates of ownership and
purchase are falling for younger
cohorts
85
Rate of home ownership
80
75
70
65
25-34
35-44
60
45-54
55-64
55
50
45
40
1981
1991
2001
2011
Source: Burke (2014) Table 4 - ABS Census, unit record files, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011
Exit from and churn through
home ownership
Source: Wood, G, Smith S, Ong R, and Cigdem M. (2013) - calculations from the
2001–10 HILDA Survey, 2001–08 BHPS and UKHLS wave 2
Long term and short term rental
increasing…
(one to 4 years)
(5 to 10 years)
(over 10 years)
Source: 1994 ABS Rental Tenants Survey (Wulff 1997; Wulff & Maher 1998); ABS SIH
2007–08 (original), from Stone et al (2013).
Lack of affordable housing for
low income renters
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
Lower income private renter
households
400,000
Affordable dwellings for
households
300,000
Lower income households in
affordable dwellings
200,000
100,000
0
Lowest 20 per cent
Second lowest 20 per cent
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2011, data Lowest two quintiles (From Hulse et
al. 2014)
Shortages have grown over time
Source: Hulse et al. 2015, customised ABS 1996, 2006 and 2011 ABS Census of
Population and Housing data
Social housing stock numbers
declining
Source: ROGS 2014, Table 17A.3; ABS 3101
Higher homelessness linked to
crowding not rough sleeping
120,000
100,000
Persons living in 'severely' crowded
dwellings
Persons in other temporary lodging
Number of Persons
80,000
Persons staying in boarding houses
Persons staying temporariliy with other
households
Persons in supported accommodation
for the homeless
Persons who are in improvised
dwellings, tents or sleeping out
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2001
2006
2011
Source: ABS 2049, Census of Population and Housing, Estimating homelessness 2011
Conclusion
Long run structural change in the
Australian Housing system
 Home ownership falling—entries and fall outs
 Private rental growing—long term, supply
shortages and high affordability stress
 Social housing supply falling and three quarters
of allocations to those in highest need, changed
tenancy profile
 Long-term structural trends are negative and
these are the backdrop for housing policy reform
Part two
Victoria: defining the problem
General supply and affordability
Population growth, lot release, dwelling completions
and house price growth - Victoria
(Sept 1997 =100)
450
400
350
Dwelling completions Index
300
Established House price index
(Melbourne)
250
Population Growth Index
200
Lot release (Melbourne) 7 month moving
average
150
100
50
Sep-1997
May-1998
Jan-1999
Sep-1999
May-2000
Jan-2001
Sep-2001
May-2002
Jan-2003
Sep-2003
May-2004
Jan-2005
Sep-2005
May-2006
Jan-2007
Sep-2007
May-2008
Jan-2009
Sep-2009
May-2010
Jan-2011
Sep-2011
May-2012
Jan-2013
Sep-2013
May-2014
0
Sources: Population change: Cat. 3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2014
Dwelling completions: Cat. 8752.0 - Building Activity, Australia, Sep 2013
Lot release: Residential Land Bulletin data Department of Transport, Planning and Local
Infrastructure
House price index: Cat. 6416.0 - Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Dec 2014
Additions to demand and supply
Average annualised per cent changes
(Victoria)
Rate of net
additions to
demand
Rate of additions to supply
Rate of price
increase
Established
house prices
(Melbourne)
Population
Lot release
Dwelling
completions
5 years to
March 2013
0.0
5.5
5.5
3.1
16 years to
March 2013
6.7
4.4
4.0
8.0
Mortgage affordability
Shortages of affordable and
available rental stock for low income
households Victoria
180,000
160,000
140,000
Lower income private
renter households
120,000
100,000
Affordable dwellings
for households
80,000
60,000
Lower income
households in
affordable dwellings
40,000
20,000
0
Lowest 20 per cent
Second lowest 20 per
cent
Source: 2011 Australian Census of Population and Housing data
Housing affordability stress rising
in Melbourne
Percent of low income renter households paying
unaffordable rents
100
90
80
70
60
Q1 Melbourne
Q2 Melbourne
Q1 Non-Metro Victoria
Q2 Non-metro Victoria
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996
2006
2011
Source: Hulse et al (2015) Tables 18, 19; customised data 1996, 2006 and 2011
Australian Census of Population and Housing data
State shares of homelessness,
CRA recipients, and affordable
housing compared to population
Victoria
40.0%
40.0%
35.0%
35.0%
30.0%
30.0%
Population
25.0%
25.0%
Homeless population
20.0%
15.0%
National Share
National share
New South Wales
20.0%
Affordable housing
stock
15.0%
Income units on
private rental
assistance
10.0%
10.0%
5.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Victorian public housing supply
static…
but growth in community sector
90000
80000
Average annualised rate of growth
1998 to 2011:
Social Housing = 0.7 per cent/yr
Population = 1.4 per cent/yr
70000
Units of housing
60000
50000
Public Housing -Victoria
40000
Mainstream Community Housing
All (mainstream) Social Housing
30000
20000
10000
0
Source: Productivity Commission Report on Government Services
Housing Attachments Table 17A.3 (Latest data to 30 June 2014)
Public housing waiting list for
early housing has increased…
60,000
50,000
Total waiting list
(including transfers)
Total waiting list
(excluding transfers)
Early housing waiting
list (incl transfers)
Early housing waiting
list (excl transfers)
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
Jan-98
Jan-01
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Source: Department of Human Services (DHS).
Jan-13
Conclusion
 Key housing problem in Victoria is lack of supply
of dedicated affordable stock – public,
community, NRAS, shared equity.
 Increases in general land and housing supply
necessary but not sufficient to address the key
problem.
 Targeted interventions to stimulate new supply
of dedicated affordable housing are required.
Policy interventions for new
supply of dedicated affordable
housing
a)
b)
c)
d)
Inclusionary zoning
Tax credits (NRAS)
Equity sharing (retain subsidy)
Support social purpose entities (real estate
agencies, developers, housing associations,
financiers)
e) Social housing reform to drive financial viability
f) Government borrowing:
 to build
 to lend
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
 Census of Population and Housing (1981, 1991, 2001, 2011), including
Estimating Homelessness 2011
 Cat. 4130.0 Housing Occupancy and Costs 2011-12
 Cat. 8752.0 Building Activity, Australia, Sep 2013
 Cat. 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2014
 Cat. 6416.0 Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities,
Dec 2014 (House price index)
 Cat 4102.0 Australian Social Trends, Data Cube – Housing
Burke, T, Stone W, and Ralston, L. (2014) Generational change in home
purchase opportunity in Australia AHURI Final Report No. 232, November
Department of Human Services (DHS) Waiting List data
Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure Residential
Land Bulletin (Residential lot release) http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/data-andresearch/population/metropolitan/residential-land-bulletin
References (continued)
Fox, R. and Findlay R. (2012) Dwelling Prices and Household Income in
Reserve Bank Bulletin, December Quarter, Reserve Bank of Australia
Hulse, K, Reynolds, M, Stone, W., and Yates J, (2015) Supply shortages
and affordability outcomes in the private rental sector: short and longer
term trends AHURI Final Report No. 241, June
Productivity Commission (1996 - 2014) Report on Government Services
Housing Chapter http://www.pc.gov.au/research/recurring/report-ongovernment-services/2015/housing-and-homelessness/housing
Real Estate Institute of Victoria Rental Vacancy Rates
http://reiv.com.au/Property-Research/Rental-Data/Vacancy-Rates
Stone, W, Burke, T, Hulse K, and Ralston, L. (2013) Long-term private
rental in a changing Australian private rental sector AHURI Final Report
No. 209, July
Wood, G, Smith S, Ong R, and Cigdem, M. (2013) The edges of home
ownership AHURI Final Report No. 216, October.
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