Managing Uncertainty in the
Adoption of New Products:
Temporal Distance and Mental
Simulations
Largely based on forthcoming JMR paper by:
Raquel Castaño
Mita Sujan
Manish Kacker
Harish Sujan
June 2008
Presentation Prepared for Old Dominion University
Cognitions and Emotions in
Decision Making
Basic Model: Individuals process and combine attribute
information
Alternative Models
Category-based
judgments (1984 to 1989)
Autobiographical
-
memories and anticipations (1990–on)
Semantic/Abstract
Specific
versus concrete/episodic thinking (1997-on)
emotions and action (1999-on)
If you don’t care for
yourself, you hurt others
or, “feel guilty”
MENENGITIS VACCINATION DATA (UNPUBLISHED)
With Kirsten Passyn
Fear
Hope
Felt emotions:
Fear
Hope
Guilt
Challenge
5.60
5.73
3.73
4.73
Valence
5.47
SelfAccountability
4.40
4.53
Behavioral
intentions
3.24
3.22
Behaviors
% Vaccinated
6%
6%
5.00
6.67*
3.13
4.20
6.33**
Guilt
5.60
6.26
5.07**
5.27
5.93
5.87**
5.00**
13%
Challenge
5.40
5.80
3.67
6.00**
7.13**
5.93**
4.82**
13%
Temporal Distance
____X___________X_________X
Far
Near
Decision
How are options construed when the
decision is in the near versus
distant future? And what emotions
are important as temporal distance
shifts?
The Tweel
Observations Re. New Products

Low adoption rates

Michelin (the company that invented the radial
tire) has now developed the Tweel, a no-air
combination tire and wheel technology.
Prototypes have been tested with the Audi A4.


Time 1: Automobile enthusiasts are excited by
the performance potential of the Tweel and/or the
new Tweel look.
Time 2: Yet, when the time to make a purchase
decision approaches, consumers will become
concerned with the uncertainties of learning to
handle cars with Tweel tires and the risk
associated with giving up familiar tires.
Observations Re. New Products

Failures and Market Withdrawals


WASHINGTON Dec 19, 2005 — A new
imaging drug, the only one capable of
diagnosing equivocal appendicitis was
pulled off the market Monday.
At a December 15 meeting, the FDA
informed companies that though
there was no new data, it had
reconsidered the risk/benefit
assessment of NeutroSpec.
Core Assumptions/Starting Points for
our Research on New Products
The newness creates uncertainties.


In the time duration from initial
consideration to decision point mental
shifts occur.



Both upside and downside uncertainties.
Consider relocation.
Products are introduced on promise. Then
constraints emerge.
Good marketing strategy is managing
the shifting uncertainties during the
introduction and launch of a new
product
Paper Objectives

What is the decision process for adopting new
products and how does the process change with
time horizon?
(Studies 1 and 1A)

How should communication strategies for new
products be adapted over time horizon?
(Studies 2 and 2A)

Are these communication strategies unique to
new products, i.e., does the efficacy of these
strategies depend on product newness?
(Study 3)
Decision Process for New Product
Adoption: Assessing Uncertainties


Performance uncertainty: the uncertainty
related to estimating the expected utility
of the product or “how useful will this
product be?”
Symbolic uncertainty: the uncertainty
related to estimating the social
desirability of the product or “how much
self-esteem and status will this product
confer?”
Uncertainties in New Product Adoption


Switching costs uncertainty: the
uncertainties associated with being able
to take the steps to effectively use the
innovation or “how difficult will it be to
learn the new product?”
Affective uncertainty: the uncertainty
related to estimating the emotional
attachment to old technology and
traditional products or “how will I feel if I
use this product and forgo the old?”
Study 1: Temporal Distance,
Uncertainties and Emotions


Temporal distance theories: As psychological
distance to events decreases, people shift
towards using concrete rather than abstract
mental models and concern themselves with
costs (feasibility) rather than benefits
(desirability) features.
Extend the theory to perceptions of uncertainty
and emotions

For New Products: Shifts over time in which
uncertainty dimensions and emotions dominate.
Study1: Hypotheses

H1: When considering adopting a new product
in the near future, compared to in the distant
future, there will be:





H1a:
H1b:
H1c:
H1d:
higher switching cost uncertainty,
higher affective attachment uncertainty,
lower performance uncertainty, and
lower symbolic uncertainty
H2: When considering adopting a new product
in the near future, compared to in the distant
future, there will be:



H2a: greater feelings of anxiety,
H2b: reduced feelings of optimism, and
H2c: lowered intentions to adopt.
Study 1: Method




The Context: Adopting a newly offered virtual class in a
Mexican university. Participants read a description of a
virtual course, which explained the satellite transmission
process, the formation of virtual teams and briefly
described the benefits and challenges of the new
technology.
The Experimental Conditions: Students were told to
imagine themselves in a situation having to make the
decision to register either tomorrow or a year from now.
The Longitudinal Study: Wave 1 data were collected three
months from the registration date, and wave 2 data were
collected the week of the registration deadline.
Dependent Measures: Cognitive Responses (coded),
measured emotions, BIs and checks.
STUDY 1:
Temporal
Distance
Experimental
Results
Temporal Frames
Longitudinal
Results
Near Future
Distant Future
Near Future
Distant Future
Total thoughts
2.10
2.38
1.89
2.17
Number (proportion) of
drawback-oriented uncertainties
1.55 (0.68)
0.70 (0.29)
1.40 (0.77)
0.89 (0.41)
Switching cost uncertainty
1.20 (0.52)
0.60 (0.24)
0.86 (0.45)
0.65 (0.30)
Affective cost uncertainty
0.35 (0.17)
0.10 (0.04)
0.54 (0.32)
0.24 (0.11)
Number (proportion) of benefitoriented uncertainties
0.55 (0.32)
1.68 (0.71)
0.49 (0.23)
1.29 (0.59)
Performance benefit uncertainty
0.53 (0.28)
1.60 (0.69)
0.43 (0.18)
0.98 (0.47)
Symbolic benefit uncertainty
0.02 (0.01)
0.08 (0.03)
0.01 (0.05)
0.30 (0.12)
Behavioral Intentions
4.69
5.97
3.70
5.43
Feelings of Anxiety
5.70
3.83
6.00
4.99
Feelings of Optimism
4.74
6.53
5.22
5.56
Near-future
6.74
3.86
Distant-future
3.33
6.05
Sample Size
40
40
63
63
Measures
Manipulation checks:
Major Findings 1
Uncertainties from Longitudinal Study
Uncertainty Thoughts

Sw itching
Affective
Perform ance
Sym bolic
1
0
Near
Distant
Study 2: Managing Uncertainty to
Increase New Product Adoption
Two routes


Marketers can heighten the initial feelings
of consumer optimism associated with the
promises of new product benefits.
Second, Marketers can help alleviate the
growing anxiety and feelings of
uncertainty associated with new product
costs as the buying decision nears?
Mental Simulation and Uncertainty
Reduction


Mental simulations make things real – one way
to deal with uncertainties.
Two types of mental simulations




Outcome-focused or Why-thinking
Process-focused or How-thinking
Past research argues for superiority of process
simulation via planning and emotional regulation
Different types of simulation naturally fit with
cost and benefit thoughts.



Why-thinking => reasons/benefits
How-thinking => procedures/costs
Efficacy contingent on temporal distance to decision
Study 2: Hypotheses

H3: When considering adopting a new product in
the near future, relative to the distant future,
how-thinking compared to why-thinking will:





H3a:
H3b:
H3c:
H3d:
alleviate switching cost uncertainty,
alleviate affective attachment uncertainty,
alleviate feelings of anxiety, and
increase adoption intentions
H4: When considering adopting a new product in
the distant future, relative to the near future,
why-thinking compared to how-thinking will:




H4a:
H4b:
H4c:
H4d:
alleviate performance uncertainty,
alleviate symbolic uncertainty, and
increase feelings of optimism, and
increase adoption intentions
Mental Simulation and Actual Adoption
Rates and Post Purchase Satisfaction


For actual adoption, as the decision nears,
individuals must overcoming constraints.
H5: For new products, when the adoption is
perceived to be in the near rather than in the
distant future, how-thinking compared to whythinking will:


H5a: increase adoption, and
H5b: increase post-purchase satisfaction emotions
Study 2: Design

2(near v. distant future) X 2(how v. why simulation)



Imagine that you have to make the decision tomorrow
(in a year from now) whether or not to enrol in a
virtual course…
Now, please imagine the process of taking a virtual
course…. Imagine logging on to the course site,
reading the manual and step by step instructions…
Imagine using technology to continuously interact with
your professor and classmates rather than going to a
classroom or going to their offices.” OR
Now, please imagine the end benefits of taking a
virtual course… Imagine why the new technology of a
virtual course will help you increase your professional
performance… Imagine why working in virtual teams
will allow you to be in contact with students from other
countries and cultures.
Measures


Measures of uncertainty, affect and
behavioural intentions
Actual enrolment data were
observed for all participants 25 to
28 days later. Post-consumption
satisfaction was observed two
weeks after the start of classes.
Expected Interactions

Nature of Interaction?



Fanning interaction on uncertainties and
emotions
 Simple main effect comparisons for how-why
significant under one time frame, but not the
other
Cross-over for BIs
 Simple main effect comparisons significant
under both time frames
Fanning interaction on adoption and
satisfaction
 Simple main effect comparisons for how-why
significant under near, with near-how highest
STUDY 2
Temporal Distance
and
Mental
Simulations
Temporal Frames
Near
Near
Distant
Distant
Types of Thinking
How
Why
How
Why
Behavioral Intentions
7.52a
3.97b
4.48bc
6.70ad
Switching Cost Uncertainty
2.96a
5.45b
3.48a
3.87c
Affective Cost Uncertainty
2.78a
4.70b
3.48ac
3.83bc
Performance Benefit Uncertainty
3.83a
3.73a
5.74b
2.96ac
Symbolic Benefit Uncertainty
2.83a
2.57a
3.13ab
2.65ab
Feelings of Anxiety
3.88a
5.43b
3.93ac
2.74d
Feelings of Optimism
3.97a
3.54a
4.92abd
6.61c
Number (percentage) who
enrolled in the virtual course and
Satisfaction ratings
12 (52.2%)
6.44
7 (30.4%)
5.62
8 (34.7%)
4.38
9 (39.0%)
5.22
Satisfaction
for Control
= 4.03
Near Future
7.30a
7.13a
3.09b
3.13b
Distant Future
2.5 a
1.65 a
6.57b
6.50b
Outcome Simulation (Why)
4.20 a
6.48 b
3.89 ac
6.28 bd
Process Simulation (How)
7.15 a
2.57 b
7.07 ac
3.15 bd
Sample size:
23
23
23
23
Manipulation checks:
Paper Submitted to JMR

Reviewer concerns?
Paper Submitted to JMR

Reviewer concerns?
Round 1:
This a phenomenon for RNPs, test that.
Simulation instructions too complicated.
Replication with different product.
Rewrite; move from theory to RNPs.
Added Study 3
Round2: How do we know that matched simulations help?
Long-term effects valuable, need strengthening.
Added Study 2A
Round 3:
Don’t limit to RNPs, instead relate to degrees of newness.
Add more marketplace examples.
Rewriting
Study 2A: Additional Support for Matching
Process and Outcome Simulations to Near
and Distant Futures

The need for a control condition.


Another measure of long-term effects.


For example, does process help in the near time
horizon (hypothesized) or outcome simulation hurt?
Delayed Intentions
Retested H3 and H4 with a replication of Study
2 design with a no simulation control, BIs
collected over two time periods and a different
product, i.e., an automatic car.
STUDY 2A
Types of Thinking
How
Why
Control
Temporal Frames
Near
Near
Near
Behavioral Intentions
7.70a
5.00b
5.18b
Behavioral Intentions Delayed
(One week delay)
7.94a
4.96b
4.69b
Switching Cost Uncertainty
2.50a
6.03b
5.60a
Affective Cost Uncertainty
2.93a
5.93b
5.53b
Performance Benefit
Uncertainty
3.70a
2.80b
3.53a
Symbolic Benefit Uncertainty
2.60a
3.37abd
4.20bc
Temporal Frames
Distant
Distant
Distant
Behavioral Intentions
5.33bc
7.67a
5.90c
Behavioral Intentions Delayed
(One week delay)
5.30b
7.90a
5.07b
Switching Cost Uncertainty
3.47c
4.27d
4.63d
Affective Cost Uncertainty
3.37ac
3.77ac
4.60d
Performance Benefit
Uncertainty
5.37c
2.50b
4.83c
Symbolic Benefit Uncertainty
3.73bcd
2.90ad
3.07ad
Major Findings 2
Behavioral Intentions- Delayed
Process
Outcom e
Control
9
8
Behavioral Intentions

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Near
Distant
Study 3: Degree of Product Newness




The role of mental simulation is reducing
uncertainty. Are the result contingent on
degree of newness?
Stimuli: 2 levels of innovativeness on driving
ease for a new automobile introduction X type
of simulation.
New Product: Fully automatic car (responds to
lane markers, road signs, other cars,
obstructions).
Incrementally/Less New Product: Active cruise
control (speeds and slows with traffic).
STUDY3
New Product
Temporal Frames
Near
Near
Distant
Distant
Types of Thinking
How
Why
How
Why
Behavioral Intentions
7.59a
5.87bc
5.35b
7.54ad
Switching Cost Uncertainty
3.05ac
5.35b
3.96a
4.09a
Affective Cost Uncertainty
3.68a
5.13b
5.26b
4.35ab
Performance Benefit
Uncertainty
3.45a
3.39a
5.57b
3.57a
Symbolic Benefit Uncertainty
3.91a
3.87a
3.96a
4.04a
Incrementally
New Product
Temporal Frames_________
Near _________
Near_________
Distant____
Distant
Types of Thinking
How
Why
How
Why
Behavioral Intentions
6.20bc
6.76cde
6.52ce
7.14ac
Switching Cost Uncertainty
2.00c (down)
3.67a
3.09ac
2.14c
Affective Cost Uncertainty
2.55b (down)
4.19a
2.96ab
2.50b
Performance Benefit
Uncertainty
3.18ac
3.19ac
3.61a
2.32c (down)
Symbolic Benefit Uncertainty
3.27a
3.95a
3.09a
3.41a
Major Findings 3
Impact of Product Newness on BIs

Process
Outcom e
9
9
8
8
Behavioral Intentions
Behavioral Intentions
Process
7
6
5
4
3
Outcome
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
Near
Near
Distant
Distant
Conclusions: Implications and Future
Research

For new products, reducing uncertainty effective for adoption.




Impacting belief means versus certainty or another dimension
Immediate and longer-term effects, on BIs (pre-adoption), B (adoption)
and satisfaction (post-adoption). Process may include impact on
product usage.
Contingent on degree of product innovativeness
Temporal Distance

Communication strategies need to be modified to fit closeness to
launch/adoption.




Public Policy Initiatives - National Health Care System.
Products and Services - BMW hydrogen fuel cars. iPhone.
Temporal distances to commitment (down payment) versus adoption
may be different, or temporal distance to benefits (buy now) and costs
(pay later). Investigate these decisions that unfold over time.
Mental Simulations. Review paper on types, methods, effects?





Why versus How
Problem versus Solution Oriented
Anticipations versus retrospections
Guided versus free flowing
Alleviate versus Change dominant thought
Launching the iPhone
Apple Reinvents the Phone with
iPhone: Benefits Communicated
MACWORLD SAN FRANCISCO—January 9,
2007—Apple® today introduced iPhone,
combining three products—a
revolutionary mobile phone, a widescreen
iPod® with touch controls, and a
breakthrough Internet communications
device with desktop-class email, web
browsing, searching and maps—into one
small and lightweight handheld device.
Costs and Constraints at Launch
iPhone requires a Mac with a USB 2.0 port,
Mac OS® X v10.4.8 or later and iTunes 7;
or a Windows PC with a USB 2.0 port and
Windows 2000 (Service Pack 4), Windows
XP Home or Professional (Service Pack 2).
Internet access is required and a
broadband connection is recommended.
Apple and Cingular will announce service
plans for iPhone before it begins shipping
in June.
If Hydrogen Cars are to become a
reality will see a shift from whys to
hows…
BMW Hydrogen Cars
Whys Communicated via Oscar Winning, “An Inconvenient Truth”

Run on water using hydrogen made from sunlight

Emit water vapor at the tailpipe
Hows

Fill automatically with robot operated filling stations

Cooling tanks to keep hydrogen liquid

Hillside Recent Introduction
Ontech Home Page 11/04/05
Ontech Home Page 2/28/07
Future Research: Some approaches we’re
considering to communicate about health

Change consumers mental models of time to
favor the future



Change perceptions of vulnerability


Two ways individuals consider time: snaps shots
versus a video (Baumgartner, Sujan and Padgett,
1997)
Manipulate tests as in the near vs. distant future
and separate commitment (sign-up) from action
Individuals believe they better at managing marketplace communication (With Amna Kirmani)
More finely match emotions and contexts of
needed action

Consider multiple appraisals of emotions (with
Kirsten Payssn)
Perceptions of How Persuaded You/Other College Student
are by:
(with Amna Kirmani, unpublished data)
Tactic
Argument
Celebrity
Emotion
Self/
No Motive
Other/
No Motive
Other/
Motive
3.75
4.35
4.25
Samsung
4.21
4.52
5.33
4.79
Merck
4.71
4.35
5.60
FDA
4.69
Self/
Motive
3.79
Advice that’s worked for me






Old problem (hook), new approach
(contribution).
Do everything the reviewer (advisor)
asks.
Work on a few things and get them done.
Network.
Show your work often and to many.
Be a real friend to those who surround
you now – they are among your truest
friends in the academy.