Forecasting Uncertainty To a forecaster, a good hurricane forecast is getting the location right within 50 miles and the wind speeds within 8 mph in the period 12 hours before landfall. As an emergency manager, your idea of a good forecast would be to know the location and intensity with 100% accuracy 72 hours ahead of time. That gap is the reality that underlies decision making. Why is it that forecasts are imperfect, and how do forecasters and emergency managers take that uncertainty into account? By choosing Sources of Uncertainty in the diagram below, you will learn what contributes to errors in today's forecasts and how large these errors are. Choose Solutions: Dealing with Uncertainty to explore information and practices that can help you prepare for a hurricane threat.