Institute of Meteorology ,
Hydrology and Environment, Mongolia
Climate review for 2012/2013 Winter and
2013 summer outlook over Mongolia
OYUNJARGAL Lamjav
FOCRA II, Beijing, China
8-10 April 2013
Climate review for 2012/2013 Winter
MSLP & Anomaly - December
MSLP & Anomaly - January
MSLP & Anomaly - February
Temperature variation
-1.9oC
Dec
2.8oC
Jan
-0.3oC
-7.5oC
Dec
1.4oC
Jan
-3.6oC
2012-2013 winter temperature anomaly, oC
/1.9- -5.5oC/
Feb
Dec
Jan
Feb
ΔTavg=-1.9oC
Tavg=-20.3oC
-2.6oC
-2.0oC
-0.7oC
Feb
-5.9oC
Dec
-2.2oC
Jan
-4.2oC
Feb
Precipitation variation
Dec
109%
Jan
100%
Feb
271%
Dec
397%
Jan
13%
Feb
43%
2012-2013 winter precipitation anomaly, oC
ΔRavg=147.7%
Ravg=3.3mm
Dec
246%
Jan
40%
Feb
30%
Dec
397%
Jan
341%
Feb
0%
Notable event
• December was relatively cold (-3.8oC) and snowy
Absolute minimum temperature in December
(207%).
/-51.2 C, the coldest in last 33 years /
o
1st
3rd
4rd
2nd
1st 2nd
3rd
Number of days with minimum temperature less
than -30oC
Summary
• Temperature anomaly was below normal and ranged
between 1.9 and -5.5oC. For spatial distribution, the
most part of central and eastern region of the country
experienced -3.5 - -5.5oC colder than normal winter.
• Above normal precipitation has observed almost all
over the country. As a result of this snowfall, more
than 80% of the territory covered by snow during this
winter. Precipitation in December and February was
above normal.
• December 2012 was 4rd coldest and 3rd wettest month
since 1971.
2013 summer outlook
Methods
• Lagged –correlation method –lead time: 6
month
• “Extreme” statistical model - lead time: 6
month
• Statistical downscaling of TCC, GCM –lead
time: 1 month
• Statistical downscaling of APCC, GCM - lead
time: 1-3 month
Temperature – summer 2013
• June
• July
• August
Above normal
Normal
Precipitation –summer 2013
• June
• July
• August
Above normal
Normal
Below normal
Verification of last winter outlook
Gobian
East
Center
West
Region Month
Dec
Jan
Feb
Dec
Jan
Feb
Dec
Jan
Feb
Dec
Jan
Feb
Temperature
Anomaly
Fore
Obs
N
N\B
B
A\N
N
N
N
B
N\B
N\B
N
B
N
B
N
N\B
N
B
N
B
N
N\A
N
N\B
Precipitation
ratio (%)
Fore
Obs
A
A\B
A
B\N
A
A
A
A
A\N
B
A
N\A
A
A
A
A
A
B\A
A
A
A
A\B
A\N
N\A
Summary
• Temperature is expected to be mostly near
normal and 1.2-1.5oC above normal
• Precipitation – near normal throughout the
country almost in all months.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION