Pakistan: “A Country on the Brink”
IAFS 1000
Pakistan’s Creation
• Originally part of British India. The British used the
divide between the Muslims & Hindu’s in a strategy to
maintain control.
• Pakistan was formed in 1947 out of partition from
British controlled India.
• During the split from India, a mass migration of over
15 Million. Muslims were going to Pakistan as Hindus
were leaving for India.
• The creation of Pakistan was tumultuous, resulting in
chaos, riots, deaths & crimes against humanity. This
deepened the rift between Muslims and Hindus.
Partition:
• Partition left both India & Pakistan devastated socially &
economically.
• Some of the atrocities committed between the Muslims &
Hindus were widespread rape, pillaging & murder,
bordering on genocide.
• This included the bombing of trains of immigrants by
Hindus and even filling trains full of the dismembered
bodies & sending them across the border into Pakistan.
The Early Years
• After Partition - Pakistan & East Pakistan on the
other side of India.
• East Pakistan rebelled and split from Pakistan in
the 1971 India/Pakistan war to become
Bangladesh.
• Pakistan itself is divided into four main areas:
Baluchistan, North-West Frontier Province
(NWFP), Punjab, & Sindh.
• Another province, Kashmir, is still under dispute
with India & has been the cause of war between
the countries in 1947, 1965, 1971 & 1999.
Jammu and Kashmir
• Dispute between Pakistan & India over Jammu &
Kashmir goes back to partition of 1947.
• Initially, Kashmir was to join with Pakistan, but the
Hindu Maharaja, Hari Singh, refused. Pakistan tried
to scare him with military force.
• In response, Singh signed an article of accession,
Kashmir would join India if India helped repel
Pakistani forces.
• Territory has been disputed ever since.
Pakistan and India
• India & Pakistan have been archrivals since
the partition and disputes over Kashmir have
propagated this.
• They compete politically, economically and
militarily.
• They are both nuclear nations with limited
first strike ability.
• Given the mutual hatred and history of war
between these two nations and India’s rising
prosperity, there is a high level of instability
in the region.
Pakistan Today
• Although the 4
provinces in
Pakistan are
officially united,
each one has its
individual culture
and identity.
• Some even have
strong separatist
sentiments such as
the NWFP which
harbors Al Qaeda &
the Taliban.
Politics
• Pakistan goes back and forth from
being a democracy and being ruled by
a military dictator after a coup.
• Pakistani politics have a tradition of
being underhanded, violent, and
volatile.
History of Pakistan’s Political Leaders
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1948: Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan, dies
1951: Jinnah’s successor, Liaquat Ali Khan is assassinated.
1956: Constitution proclaims Pakistan as Islamic Republic.
1958: General Ayyub Khan becomes president.
1969: General Yahya Khan takes over in a coup.
1973: Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazir’s father) becomes PM.
1979: General Zia ul-Haq overthrows and hangs Bhutto in a
military coup & becomes president. Daughter Benazir goes into
exile, returns in 1986.
• 1988: Gen. Zia dies in mysterious plane crash. Bhutto’s
Pakistan’s Peoples Party wins election & she becomes PM.
• 1990: Benazir Bhutto is dismissed as PM on charges of
incompetence & corruption.
History of Pakistan’s Leaders Continued
• 1991: PM Nawaz Sharif begins economic liberalization.
• 1993: PM Sharif resigns under pressure from military. General election
brings Bhutto back to power.
• 1996: Pres. Leghari dismisses Bhutto’s govt. amid corruption allegations.
• Nawaz Sharif returns as PM after his Pakistan Muslim League wins.
• 1999: Bhutto and her husband are convicted of corruption and
sentenced. Benazir flees to exile. Later that year Sharif is overthrown by
General Pervez Musharraf in a military coup.
• 2007: Bhutto’s and Sharif’s parties protest Musharraf. Musharraf takes
over media and communication networks.
• 2008: Musharraf forced to step down in face of impeachment/Zardari
elected
• 2010 Constitutional change making President even more of a figurehead
• 2011 Musharraf indicted for assassination of Benazir Bhutto
• 2013 Nawaz Sharif elected again as PM/ Zardari finishes term as
President
Benazir Bhutto's Timeline
Bhutto’s Assassination 2007
The Musharraf Era
• Musharraf came to power in a 1999 military coup, self
appointed as president in 2001.
• Enjoyed western support due to his announced
intentions in 2002 to combat extremists in Pakistan.
• Legitimacy of his rule is dubious - In 2007 he suspended
the constitution and jailed several supreme court
members before they were about to evaluate the validity
of his election.
• During Musharraf’s time Pakistan enjoyed impressive
economic performance.
• Musharraf’s approval rating plummeted to 15%.
Pakistan, The U.S. and the War on Terror
• US supported Pakistan and Musharraf ever since
he pledged to be an ally to the US in the war on
terror.
• US placed its faith in Musharraf by appropriating
over $10B in foreign aid since 9/11.
• Stark contrast to the sanctions US had against
Pakistan before Musharraf pledged his support.
• Question now is whether or not the US should
have continued to support Musharraf since he
became widely unpopular and Illegitimate.
Should the US have continued to
support Musharraf? And then Zardari?
• YES: The US was familiar with him, he
offered continuity. A different leader could
have been worse politically. He is more
moderate than Sharif and the PPP.
• NO: The aid given him did very little. He
was undemocratic and vastly unpopular.
By continuing to support him the US lost
the credit it has gained in the Middle East
by supporting an Islamic nation.
Current
Situation
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Mumbai killings
Bhutto/Zardari
Musharraf gone
Judge
Swat Valley and FATA
– Allowed to govern themselves –
Sharia law
• Predator strikes into these areas
Pakistan’s Political Parties
• PML (Q) - Pakistan Muslim League
(Quaid-I-Azam)
– “King’s Party” - staunch supporter of
Musharraf, close to military
– Conservative, right wing
• PML (N) - Pakistan Muslim League
(Nawaz)
– Split from PML (Q) after 1999 coup &
Nawaz Sharif was exiled
– Led by Sharif, centered in Punjab
• PPP - Pakistan People’s Party
– Led by Benazir Bhutto until assassination
– Now headed by Asif Ali Zardari (Husband) &
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (son)
– Centered in Sindh, also strong in Punjab
– Socialist, democracy advocates
• MMA - Majlis-i-Amal
– Alliance of 6 major religious parties
– Formed after Musharraf joined War on
Terror
– Controlled Baluchistan & NWFP fm 02-08
– Supportive of a theocracy
• ANP - Awami National Party
– Secular, nationalistic Pashtuns
– Centered in NWFP
– Close ties to Afghanistan’s president
Hamid Karzai
– Wants to reform tribal political systems
• MQM - Muttahida Quami Movement
– Based in Sindh
– pro-Musharraf coalition
– militant and unreliable
Pakistan Elections
• Elections were to be held Jan. 8th 2008
• Bhutto assassinated Dec. 27th
– Two alternative versions to assassination
• Election Delayed
– PPP and PML (N) wanted elections held
as planned (Zardari & Sharif)
– Electoral Commission decides to push
election back to Feb. 18th
• Supposedly independent, likely controlled by
Musharraf
Army withdrawal from politics
• Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani now in charge
• Kiyani ordered withdrawal from politics
– 300 army officers told to leave their
ministerial positions
– Kiyani ordered soldiers, officers not to
take sides in election
– U.S. has demanded military stay out of
political affairs, threatening to slow aid if it
doesn’t ($5.4 bil to fight militants so far)
February 2008 Election Results
268 total seats
• PML (Q) - 42
• PPP - 113
• PML (N) - 85
• MMA - 3
• ANP - 10
• MQM - 19
Muree Declaration
• PPP and PML (N) make deal to share
power in Punjab, federal government
• Zardari (Husband) becomes President
• PPP accepts Sharif’s demands to
restore 60 sacked judges
• PML (N) drops campaign pledges to
rewrite constitution & try Musharraf
Secularism in NWFP
• After Feb. elections, ANP forms
coalition with PPP to control NWFP
• MMA’s mullahs ousted from power
• Hopefully close ties to Hamid Karzai
will lead to greater border cooperation
• Hoping to reform politics in region to
reduce mullah’s control
What has new coalition done ?
• Freed all 60 sacked judges
– Pledged to reinstate them, but no date set
• Appointed Raza Gillana as PM
– PPP loyalist, likely to pass off post to
Zardari after by-elections
• Zardari not completely alienating
Musharraf allies
– Brought MQM into coalition in Sindh
Internal Actors
• Pakistan Army
• Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)
– Link to LET, & JUD
• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET)
– Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD)
• Banned by UN Security Council and Pakistan
• Taliban
• Al Qaeda
– Not the same as militant group
Dilemma
• Misperceived external threats
• Legitimate internal threats
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OR1
4_hRCAKE
Grand Bargain
Addressing sources of Pakistani
insecurity:
• Inclusion of local insurgent groups into
political process
• Resolve Kashmir dispute with India
• Durand Line
• Long-term political vision for FATA
• Transparency and Cooperation in
regional objectives.
The Future in Pakistan
• Pakistan will crumble into 4 states
• Islamists like Taliban leader Meshud will turn
Pakistan into an Iran-like theocracy
• Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will fall into the
hands of Islamists or worse…terrorists.
• Can the army prevent these doomsday
scenarios or will the army succumb to
Islamist elements as well?