The Human Layer Population Psychology Related to Disaster Preparedness and Response Overview Identify who we are talking about Select Psychological Issues and Place Them on the Project’s Disaster Timeline Explore the Nature of the Selected Psychological Issues Link Psychological issues to the Physical Layer and the Overall Model: Using Our Simulation We are Talking About Population-Related Issues Large-scale psychological issues Those “victimized” by the disaster Varying in Vulnerability • Access to disaster support and services • Beliefs regarding consequences and probability Psychological characteristics For Later Consideration First Responders Health care professionals Police Firefighters Community workers Volunteers Some Psychological Issues Coping with serious illness as an analogy Analytical Focal Points Key psychological factors that correlate with coping and outcome that • Can be operationalized • Can be quantified? Psychological Factors: Analytical Focal Points as a Function of Time Psychological Factors: Analytical Focal Points as a Function of Time Beliefs about: • Severity of consequences • Vulnerability • Efficacy of responses Psychological Factors: Analytical Focal Points as a Function of Time Beliefs about: • Severity of consequences • Vulnerability • Efficacy of responses The nature of the disaster re amount of warning • earthquake • hurricane • tsunami • “man-made” Psychological Factors: Analytical Focal Points as a Function of Time Beliefs about: First responders • Severity of consequences Evacuation • Vulnerability • Efficacy of responses The nature of the disaster re amount of warning • earthquake • hurricane • tsunami • “man-made” Psychological Factors: Analytical Focal Points as a Function of Time Beliefs about: First responders • Severity of consequences Evacuation • Vulnerability • Efficacy of responses The nature of the disaster re amount of warning • earthquake • hurricane • tsunami Post-trauma stress (PTSD) • “man-made” Place Identity Analysis and Planning under Normal Conditions Beliefs about vulnerability Beliefs about severity of consequences Beliefs about probability Beliefs about efficacy of response Beliefs about Severity of Consequences Can inform the degree to which the community is prepared physically psychologically Beliefs about Severity of Consequences Can affect the degree to which the community is prepared physically psychologically Bidirectional Beliefs about Severity of Probability In a study of Vancouver, Victoria, LA, and Anchorage residents beliefs about severity of probability was measured Unrealistic optimism A threat exists for others but not for me Unrealistic optimism and perceived control The problem of “imaginability” Perceived Vulnerability “Imaginability” “…it is necessary to examine the assumptions of everyday life and the effects of having these assumptions shattered” (Brown & Neal, 2001) Beliefs about Efficacy of Response Coping self-efficacy is the strongest predictor of disaster-related distress More than • • • • lost resources social support optimism gender and other demographic variables Changes with time as new information and experience are acquired Linked with vulnerability and experience Collective Efficacy The “shared belief that a group can effectively meet environmental demands and improve their lives through concerted effort” (Benight, 2004) Communitas – the momentary upsurge in collective unity and spirit associated with certain ritual events and social crises Collective Efficacy Perceived Collective Efficacy Over Time 100 Communitas PCE 80 60 40 20 0 Normal Alert Emergency Tim e Recovery Why Collective Efficacy is Important CE influences resource management, strategic planning, perseverance, vulnerability Predicted by lost resources perceptions of social support psychological distress Vulnerable Populations and Social Geography Vulnerable populations often experience a lack of relief services due to: More vulnerable infrastructure Smaller number of organizations with fewer connections Geographic barriers slowing redistribution of resources Leading to a decrease in CE and thus an increase in psychological distress Therefore, perception of collective efficacy is mediated by interventions that enhance resources and social support Distribution of Disaster Social Services Organizations and Vulnerable Populations Links Among Disaster Services Organizations Vulnerable Populations Loop Disaster Response Social Geography Perceived Collective Efficacy • Access to Resources • Perceived Social Support • Infrastructure Resilience • Social Support (Organization Relief) • Resource Loss • Psychological Distress Organization Network and Capacity Number of Organizations Ability to Mitigate Disaster Psychological issues linked to the physical layer: Using our Simulator Simulator effectiveness relies on its ability to identify: Infrastructure weaknesses and interdependencies Relief weaknesses and interdependencies Resource allocation because these issues predict collective efficacy across social geography they support human capacity to cope and act during disaster. Vulnerable Populations Loop Disaster Response Social Geography Perceived Collective Efficacy • Access to Resources • Perceived Social Support • Infrastructure Resilience • Social Support (Organization Relief) • Resource Loss • Psychological Distress Organization Network and Capacity Number of Organizations The Simulator works here Ability to Mitigate Disaster The Psychology of Evacuation Predictors of Behaviour During Evacuation Panic Social Affiliation Panic Defined Fear that is Intense Inappropriate and/or Excessive Often accompanied by flight More likely with unexpected events or events of unexpected magnitude Often viewed as an “overestimated response” (Mawson, 2005) Ineffective behaviour is the result Conceptions of Panic Classic conception: Panic = perceived imminent danger + limited escape options Newer conception: location of attachment figures more important than escape options Panic and Affiliation: A Social Attachment Model Affiliation Present Threat Low Threat High Affiliation Absent Panic and Affiliation: A Social Attachment Model Affiliation Present Threat Low Threat High •Increased attachment Affiliation Absent Panic and Affiliation: A Social Attachment Model Affiliation Present Threat Low Threat High •Increased attachment Affiliation Absent •Low intensity avoidance of threat Panic and Affiliation: A Social Attachment Model Affiliation Present Threat Low Threat High •Increased attachment •Increased attachment •Orderly flight/evacuation •Occasional panic Affiliation Absent •Low intensity avoidance of threat Panic and Affiliation: A Social Attachment Model Affiliation Present Threat Low Threat High •Increased attachment •Increased attachment •Orderly flight/evacuation •Occasional panic Affiliation Absent •Low intensity avoidance of threat •Mass panic Panic and Affiliation: A Social Attachment Model Affiliation Present Threat Low Threat High •Increased attachment •Increased attachment •Orderly flight/evacuation •Occasional panic Affiliation Absent •Low intensity avoidance of threat •Mass panic — toward the familiar, not always away from danger Evacuation Panic as a Social Phenomenon Elevated by a lack of familiarity with place — exacerbating contagion Reduced by support — given and received If you can’t find loved ones, find someone • Called the “convergence effect” • To help others • Evidence of being alive and unaffected • Social comparison