Changing Patterns of
Supply ― Illegal Logging
Sten Nilsson
IIASA Laxenburg, Austria
Forest Governance and Trade: Exploring Options
24 January 2007, Chatham House, London, UK
Forestry
Program
Illegal Logging
Total 350–650 million m3/year
Official global
industrial wood
production/year
350–650
million m3
?
1600
million m3
Illegal logging 20–40% of industrial wood
production
Forestry
Program
Total Industrial Wood Fiber Consumption
Global Industrial Wood Consumption
Million m3.
2000
1%
1500
1000
500
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
GDP (Trillion US$)
Source: Perez-Garcia, 2004.
Forestry
Program
Industrial Global Wood
Consumption in billion m3
Current
~1.6
2030
~2.5 High
~2.0 Low
Forestry
Program
Energy Use of
Total Wood Consumption
Pan-Europe
~65%
North America
~35%
Forestry
Program
Triangle of Problems/Solutions
Economic Growth
Energy Security
Climate Change/
Environment
Forestry
Program
Biomass and Energy
 Bioenergy: Electricity and Heat
from Biomass
 Liquid Biofuels for Transportation
 Biogas
 Hydrogen
Forestry
Program
Integrated Biorefinery Approach
Herbaceous
biomass
Woody
biomass
Plantation
Plastics
Flash
pyrolysis
Torrefaction
Chemicals
S
L
U
R
R
Y
Biodiesel
Syngas
Production
Gas
cleaning
Synthesis
DME
tars
Methanol
Biomass
pre treatment
Oil/sugar
separation
Electricity
Waste
material
Bioethanol
Esterification
Source: Girard and Fallot (2006)
Forestry
Program
Value Added Production in Biorefinery
Value Added
Pulp/Paper
Source: Hildingsson (2006)
Forestry
Program
Competitiveness of Biofuels
Agriculture-based ethanol
~70$/bbl
Brazilian ethanol
~50$/bbl (including
fuel economy penalty)
First generation biodiesel
Hardly competitive
Second generation (post 2010) ~50$bbl
biomass-to-liquid from forest
biomass
Second generation (post 2010) ~50$/bbl
lingo-ethanol
Forestry
Program
GHG Reduction Cost Expectations
for 1st and 2nd Generation Biofuels
EtOH sugar cane (Brazil)
EtOH maize (US)
EtOH wheat (EU)
2002
EtOH cellulose (IEA)
Biodiesel rapeseed (EU)
EtOH sugar cane (Brazil)
EtOH maize (US)
EtOH wheat (EU)
Post2010
EtOH cellulose (IEA)
Biodiesel rapeseed (EU)
Biodiesel F-T (IEA)
- 100
0
100
€/t CO2 equivalent
Source: Adapted from WWI/GTZ (2006)
200
300
Lower limit
400
500
600
700
800
Upper limit
Forestry
Program
Wood Balance for Pan-Europe
(million m3)
2030
Basic demand expressed as annual
fellings (EFSOS/UN, 2005)
Sustainable fellings (EFSOS/UN, 2005)
Basic demand and EU targets
680
630–660
1180
Forestry
Program
Internationalization of Bioenergy Trade
Source: Obersteiner and Nilsson (2006)
Forestry
Program
Shifting of Land-use Frontiers
Source: Fallot et al. (2006)
Forestry
Program
Paper and Paperboard Development
in China
Ningbo Xiaogang PM1
World’s largest machine for whitelined chipboard
Shandong Chenming PM4
The world’s largest newsprint
machine. China has the 3 fastest
newsprint machines in the world
APP/Gold Hong Ye
The world’s 2nd fastest tissue machine
Shandong Bohui
The world’s largest folding boxboard
machine
APP China Gold East at Dagang
Has set 6 world speed records for
paper machines
APP Gold East in Jiangsu
Building the world’s largest printing
and writing machine
Source: after Flynn (2006)
Forestry
Program
Wood Supply ― Pan-Europe
2030
–50million m3/year
2040
–50 million m3/year
Forestry
Program
Highway Conditions between
Moscow and Novosibirsk, 2006
Forestry
Program
Opportunities: Changes in Russia
Disproportion of Harvesting Volumes and
Timber Processing Capacities
Source: Federal Russian Forestry Agency
Forestry
Program
Proposed Export Taxes on
Roundwood in Russia
2006, April:
Coniferous roundwood 6.5% of export value or
minimum 4€/m3
2007, 1 July:
10% of export value, minimum 6–9€/m3
2008, 1 July:
12–13.5% of export value, minimum 12–14 €/m3
2009, 1 July:
15–17% of export value, minimum 18–19 €/m3
2010, 1 July:
20% of export value, minimum 24 €/m3 and
change of custom declaration fee,
currently 0.28 €/m3―future (no date given) 6 €/m3
Source: Palenova (2006)
Forestry
Program
China’s Industrial Roundwood Removal
350
328
300
000 000 m3
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Time
low
base
high
Official forecasts
 Natural forest
= 195 million m3
 Plantation (fast growing)
= 133 million m3
 Total industrial roundwood removal = 328 million m3
Sources: Zhou, 2001; Bull and Nilsson, 2004
Forestry
Program
Current Situation by Country
Malaysia
Harvest of logs 1990: 40 million m3; 2005: 20 million m3.
About 15 million m3 of industrial wood consumed of
unknown origin
Indonesia
“Legal harvest” 20–25 million m3; Illegal harvest 30–35
million m3; approaching the end of timber mining
possibilities
Thailand
Laos
Cambodia
Myanmar
Natural forests: 20,000 m3. Plantations about 8 million m3
PNG
Harvest in 1994: 2.7 million m3; 2004: 1.8 million m3
(Remaining mature natural forest harvest at current rate:
15–20 years)
Vietnam
~4.5 million m3/year of which about 1.5 is illegal
Official harvest: 1 million m3/year; real: 2–3 million m3
4–5 million m3/year―most of it illegal
5.5 million m3/year. Remaining harvest in supply regions
for China: 15 years
Forestry
Program
Latin America: Total Wood Balance
million m3
705
620
690
550
2003
Source: Personal communication, Serrano (2006).
2020
Forestry
Program
Assessed Roundwood Consumption
and Harvest in the USA
Million M3 RWE
Consumption
US Production
Source: After Persson (2006)
Forestry
Program
Plantation Rates
Australia
In 2000: 137500 ha/year; in 2003: 43200 ha/year;
in 2005: cap on plantations
New Zealand In 1995: 100000 ha/year; in 2004: 14900 ha/year
Indonesia
In 1997: 230000 ha/year; in 2004: 78000 ha/year
Philippines
Hardly any plantations since 1997
Thailand
Plantation boom 1986–1997; now faded away
Cambodia
Between 1985–2002: Total 11000 ha
PNG
Between 1996–2004: Total 2300 ha
India
Decreasing plantation rate
South Africa
Plantation boom over
Chile
Plantation boom over
USA
Decreasing plantation rate
Japan
In 1970: 35000 ha/year; 1990 hardly anything
Forestry
Program
Softwood Plantations
Area Growth in Softwood Plantation Forest Slowing Down;
Limiting Future Supply of Softwood Fiber
6.00
CAGR %
 Round the corner ― land reforms?
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1991-2003
2003-2010
Source: Global Wood Products and Market Trend, Taylor (2005).
2010-2020
Forestry
Program
The Way Forward
 “Good Society” ― minimum standards of living,
education, security, health care, etc.
 Combined strategies for economic growth,
malnutrition, poverty and agriculture development
 Countries with GDP higher than $4600/capita
increased growing stock and forest area during
1990–2005
 Economic growth foreseen by the World Bank
means that countries like China, Mexico and Turkey
will have average loving standard comparable with
Spain today
 Stimulate this development
Forestry
Program