Chapter 14 Bond Prices and Yields Provisions of Bonds • • • • • • Secured or unsecured Call provision Convertible provision Put provision (putable bonds) Floating rate bonds Sinking funds McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Bond Pricing T PB Ct T t 1 (1 r ) ParValueT T (1 r ) PB = Price of the bond Ct = interest or coupon payments T = number of periods to maturity r = semi-annual discount rate or the semi-annual yield to maturity McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Price of 8%, 10-yr. with yield at 6% 20 1 1 1000 t 20 PB 40 ( 1 . 03 ) ( 1 . 03 ) t 1 P B 1,148.77 Coupon = 4%*1,000 = 40 (Semiannual) Discount Rate = 3% (Semiannual Maturity = 10 years or 20 periods Par Value = 1,000 McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Bond Prices and Yields Prices and Yields (required rates of return) have an inverse relationship • When yields get very high the value of the bond will be very low • When yields approach zero, the value of the bond approaches the sum of the cash flows McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Prices and Coupon Rates Price Yield McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Alternative Measures of Yield • Current Yield • Yield to Call • Call price replaces par • Call date replaces maturity • Holding Period Yield • Considers actual reinvestment of coupons • Considers any change in price if the bond is held less than its maturity McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Premium and Discount Bonds • Premium Bond • Coupon rate exceeds yield to maturity • Bond price will decline to par over its maturity • Discount Bond • Yield to maturity exceeds coupon rate • Bond price will increase to par over its maturity McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Types of Bonds • • • • • • High Yield vs Investment grades Example AAA 5% with .2% historical default B, 9% with 4% historical default rate 40% recovery rate on defaults Return = (1 – default rate) * interest rate – default rate * (1-recovery rate) • Return for A, .998 * .05 - .002*.6 = 4.87%. • Return for B, .96 * .09 - .04 * .6 = 6.24% McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Duration • A measure of the effective maturity of a bond • The weighted average of the times until each payment is received, with the weights proportional to the present value of the payment • Duration is shorter than maturity for all bonds except zero coupon bonds • Duration is equal to maturity for zero coupon bonds McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Duration: Calculation wt CF t (1 y ) t Price T D t wt t 1 CFt Cash Flow for period t McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Duration Calculation 8% Time Bond years Payment PV of CF Weight C1 X (10%) C4 1 80 72.727 .0765 .0765 2 80 66.116 .0690 .1392 3 1080 811.420 .8539 2.5617 950.263 1.0000 2.7774 Sum McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Uses of Duration • Summary measure of length or effective maturity for a portfolio • Immunization of interest rate risk (passive management) • Net worth immunization • Target date immunization • Measure of price sensitivity for changes in interest rate McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Duration/Price Relationship Price change is proportional to duration and not to maturity DP/P = -D x [D(1+y) / (1+y) D* = modified duration D* = D / (1+y) DP/P = - D* x Dy McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Pricing Error from Convexity Price Pricing Error from Convexity Duration Yield McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Correction for Convexity Modify the pricing equation: DP D Dy 1 Convexity (Dy )2 2 P Convexity is Equal to: CF t 2 t 2 t t P (1 y) t 1 (1 y ) 1 N Where: CFt is the cashflow (interest and/or principal) at time t. McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved.