Transforming New Zealand's prosperity:
the remarkable opportunity for physics
Paul Callaghan
Alan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences
Victoria University of Wellington
Some New Zealand economic history
Pasture research.
Strain and breeding
Nitrogen fixing role
Bush-sickness-cobalt deficiency
Integrated pastoral systems
The role of phosphate
Aerial topdressing
The electric fence
Milk tankers
The science of milk products
Mechanised cheesemaking
Francis Dry
Geoffrey Peren
percent total land area
100
Alpine Zone
Tussock
80
Exotic grassland
60
Exotic forest
40
Scrub, wetlands
Recent history of New Zealand land cover
20
0
1000
Native forest
Settlements, crops
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
year
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
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14
Dunedin September
living room
temperature oC
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
outdoors
00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00
time (hh:mm)
22 August to 5 October
Sarah Shannon, Bob Lloyd, Jacob Roos and Jan Kohlmeyer
World Health Organisation
recommended
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZ
www.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
QuickTime™
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Meat Exports/Pharmaceutical Imports
2020
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
18
16
12
Ratio
Ratio
14
10
8
6
4
2
0
1968
1968
1971
1974
1974
1977
1980
1980
1983
1986
1989
1986
Year
1992
1992
1995
1998
2001
1998
2004
2004
2007
2010
2010
Year
Source: David Bibby, 1998
Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average
shortfall
US$ 29.2 billion
New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion
New Zealand 2006
GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
Australia 2006
GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
OECD-NZ Institute
http://www.nzinstitute.org/
Iceland
Japan
Greece
Canada Switzerland
Australia
USA
UK
Spain
Sweden
Italy
Ireland
Finland Austria
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
France
Iceland
New Zealand
Greece
Japan
Canada Switzerland
Australia
USA
UK
Spain
Sweden
Italy
Ireland
Finland Austria
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
France
prosperity
USA
Ireland
Switzerland
Iceland
Canada
Austria
Australia
Belgium, Netherlands
Finland
UK
Sweden
France
Japan
Germany
Italy
Spain
New Zealand
Greece
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall
US $29.2 billion
New Zealand
GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
OECD-NZ Institute
http://www.nzinstitute.org/
Australia
GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009
1.36 million*
Total New Zealand population as at March 2009
4.32 million*
* NZTE
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall
US $29.2 billion
New Zealand
GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
Australia
GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
OECD-NZ Institute
http://www.nzinstitute.org/
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009
1.36 million*
Total New Zealand population as at March
4.32 million*
To exceed our current per capita:
GDP average revenue per employee must exceed
* NZTE
NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)
= NZ $143,000
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
shortfall
US $29.2 billion
New Zealand
GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
Australia
GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
OECD-NZ Institute
http://www.nzinstitute.org/
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009
1.36 million*
Total FTE New Zealand population as at March
4.32 million*
To exceed our current per capita:
GDP average revenue per employee must exceed
NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)
We need another US $30 billion per annum exports
New activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE!
* NZTE
Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006
US $25.2 billion
Tourism
Manufacturing
Metals
Fish
2
Dairy
4
Fruit and vegetable
6
Other food and beverage
2006 US$ 32 billion
Meat
Foreign earnings (US$ billion)
8
Forestry and other primary
Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion
0
NZ External Trade Statistics
http://www.stats.govt.nz
Increase tourism by factor of 4?
Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed
Track Name
n2
North Island
Not at all
Crowded
Slightly
Crowded
Moderately
Crowded
Extremely
Crowded
%
%
%
%
Lake
Waikaremoana
(GW)
29
21
48
24
7
Tongariro (GW)
51
27
45
18
10
UoO dept Tourism
Tourism
Must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee
Tourism expenditure in New Zealand, year ending March 2007 $20.1 billion.
(International expenditure $8.8 billion and domestic expenditure $11.3 billion).
Tourism’s economic contribution to the New Zealand economy for the year
ending March 2007 $14.1 billion of value-added activity or 9.2% of Gross
Domestic Product.
Employment in tourism in New Zealand for the year ending March 2007
comprised 181,200 FTEs or 9.7% of total employment in New Zealand.
NZ $77,814 revenue per employee (direct + indirect)
* Statistics NZ
Meet ‘psycho’ for only $7950
Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani
Revenue per employee
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
Needed
for current
per capita GDP
$100,000
Tourism
0
100,000
200,000
FTE of employment
300,000
Revenue per employee
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
$200,000
Needed
for current
per capita GDP
Food manufacturing
$100,000
Wine
Tourism
0
100,000
200,000
FTE of employment
300,000
Fonterra
Revenue per employee
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
$200,000
Needed
for current
per capita GDP
Food manufacturing
$100,000
Wine
Tourism
0
100,000
200,000
FTE of employment
300,000
Fonterra
Revenue per employee
$500,000
$400,000
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
$300,000
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Total NZ Manufacturing
$200,000
Needed
for current
per capita GDP
Food manufacturing
$100,000
Wine
Tourism
0
100,000
200,000
FTE of employment
300,000
Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006
US $25.2 billion
Tourism
Manufacturing
Metals
Fish
2
Dairy
4
Fruit and vegetable
6
Other food and beverage
2006 US$ 32 billion
Meat
Foreign earnings (US$ billion)
8
Forestry and other primary
Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion
0
NZ External Trade Statistics
http://www.stats.govt.nz
The problem with dairy expansion (factor of five)
A handful of slimy algae
and lake weed, being pulled
out of Lake Rotoiti
Photo: Arno Gasteiger
NZ Greenhouse gas emissions
http://www.mfe.govt.nz
US $ revenues and profits
*
* NZ $ 400,000 per employee
Our place on the research funding phase diagram
Agriculture, F and F
NZ
POR
$9 per kg
IRL
DEN
AUSTCAN
BEL MEX TA FR JPN
NED SW GER SP UK
Environment
Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998
FIN
USA
Industry
$3000 per kg
New Economy Research Fund
1999-2005
New Zealand
USA
(and nearly everyone else)
Abt Associates report to MoRST
www.morst.govt.nz
www.morst.govt.nz
F and P appliances
Datacom
F and P Healthcare
Navico
NDA
ProvencoCadmus
Rakon
Gallagher
Weta Ltd
Tait Electronics Ltd
Douglas pharmaceuticals
Allied Telesis
Methven
Tru Test
Glidepath
Dynamic controls
CWF Hamilton
Schneider electric
Skope industries
BCS group
Humanware
Infinity group
TIN100
New Zealand Technology Companies
$500m
$400m
$300m
Annual revenue (NZ$)
$1410m
$200m
NZ Pharmaceuticals
$100m
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Rank
30
20
10
1
www.hotscience.co.nz
Beyond the Farm and the Themepark
50 minute documentary
TVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008
Auckland University Press
March 2009
NMR of Antarctic Sea Ice
McMurdo Sound
Mercier, Hunter and C, 2004
Science/engineering/business partnership
Craig Eccles
physicist/engineer
Robin Dykstra
physicist/engineer
Science/engineering/business partnership
Andrew Coy
physicist/businessman
CEO Magritek
NZ $150,000 per employee
One-sided access NMR
2 MHz Halbach magnet rockcore analyzer
Magritek prospects
•
•
•
•
•
10 staff: existing products selling well
New 2008 offshore investment (London and New York)
$1 000 000 sales in 2008
$1 000 000 sales by June 2009
Significant potential for new products
NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009
NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009
Magritek export sales
NZ Taxpayer return on investment 1993 to 2009
Magritek export sales
Craig Eccles -to ETH Zurich now Magritek
PhD students completed 1985-2009
Peter Daivis -to ANU now A/Prof, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia
Yang Xia - to Cornell now Prof., Oakland University, Detroit, USA
Andrew Coy- to KTH, Stockholm now CEO Magritek,
Craig Rofe - to UCSF, USA now Onslow College, Wellington
Jim Hargreaves - to New Zealand Dairy Research Institute
Bertram Manz - to Cambridge Univ., now Magritek
Miki Komlosh -to Freiburg University, now NIH, Washington, USA
Maria Kilfoil-to Harvard University, now Prof McGill U., Canada
Ryan Cormier (PhD)-to, Ottawa, now Physician, Canada
Alexandre Khrapitchev-to Cambridge Univ. now Oxford, UK
Roger Meder-to QUT, Australia now ENSIS, Australia
Maria del Rosario Lopez-Gonzalez-to PDF, U Glasgow, UK.
Robin Dykstra - to VUW, co-founder Magritek
Antoine Lutti -to PDF at UCL, UK
Simon Rogers -to PDF at FORTH, Greece
Kate Washburn -to ResLab, Norway
Our PhD student obligations
World-connected, entrepreneurial, engaged with public
Scientists as leaders in society
Science is a way of looking at the world
to try to understand natural phenomena
and their causes in a way that is
self-consistent and corresponds with reality.
Values
Evidence-based decisions
Peer review as a way of life
A rational, if not benign, nature
Scepticism as a virtue
What numbers mean and what they do not mean
Expressing complex ideas with simple clarity
Knowledge is not to be feared
Professor Lewis Wolpert
“Rich economies must defend themselves
by remaining on the cutting edge of research,
moving into new and growing branches,
learning from others, finding the right niches,
by cultivating and using ability and knowledge.
Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise,
their sense of identity and commitment to the
common weal, their self-esteem, their ability to
transmit these assets across the generations.”
The one lesson that emerges is the need
to keep trying.
No miracles, no perfection, no millennium,
no apocalypse.
We must cultivate a sceptical faith,
avoid dogma, listen and watch well,
try to clarify and define ends, the better to choose means.”