Eugene F. Brigham & Joel F. Houston Fundamentals of Financial Management Concise 8E 2-1 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Chapter 4 Analysis of Financial Statements Ratio Analysis DuPont Equation Effects of Improving Ratios Limitations of Ratio Analysis Qualitative Factors 4-2 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Balance Sheet: Assets Cash A/R Inventories Total CA Gross FA Less: Deprec. Net FA Total Assets 2015E 85,632 878,000 1,716,480 2,680,112 1,197,160 380,120 817,040 3,497,152 2014 7,282 632,160 1,287,360 1,926,802 1,202,950 263,160 939,790 2,866,592 4-3 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Equity Accts payable Accruals Notes payable Total CL Long-term debt Common stock Retained earnings Total Equity Total L & E 2015E 436,800 408,000 300,000 1,144,800 400,000 1,721,176 231,176 1,952,352 3,497,152 2014 524,160 489,600 636,808 1,650,568 723,432 460,000 32,592 492,592 2,866,592 4-4 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Income Statement Sales COGS Other expenses EBITDA Deprec. & amort. EBIT Interest exp. EBT Taxes Net income 2015E 7,035,600 5,875,992 550,000 609,608 116,960 492,648 70,008 422,640 169,056 253,584 2014 6,034,000 5,528,000 519,988 (13,988) 116,960 (130,948) 136,012 (266,960) (106,784) (160,176) 4-5 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Other Data No. of shares EPS DPS Stock price Lease pmts 2015E 250,000 $1.014 $0.220 $12.17 $40,000 2014 100,000 -$1.602 $0.110 $2.25 $40,000 4-6 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Why are ratios useful? • • • Ratios standardize numbers and facilitate comparisons. Ratios are used to highlight weaknesses and strengths. Ratio comparisons should be made through time and with competitors. Industry analysis Benchmark (peer) analysis Trend analysis 4-7 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Five Major Categories of Ratios and the Questions They Answer • • Liquidity: Can we make required payments? • • Debt management: Right mix of debt and equity? • Asset management: Right amount of assets vs. sales? Profitability: Do sales prices exceed unit costs, and are sales high enough as reflected in PM, ROE, and ROA? Market value: Do investors like what they see as reflected in P/E and M/B ratios? 4-8 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. D’Leon’s Forecasted Current Ratio and Quick Ratio for 2015 Current assets Current liabilitie s $2,680 $1,145 2.34 Current ratio (Current assets Inventorie s) Current liabilitie s ($2,680 $1,716 ) $1,145 0.84 Quick ratio 4-9 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Comments on Liquidity Ratios 2015E 2014 2013 Ind. Current ratio 2.34x 1.20x 2.30x 2.70x Quick ratio 0.84x 0.39x 0.85x 1.00x • • Expected to improve but still below the industry average. Liquidity position is weak. 4-10 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. D’Leon’s Inventory Turnover vs. the Industry Average Inv. turnover = Sales/Inventories = $7,036/$1,716 = 4.10x Inventory turnover 2015E 2014 2013 Ind. 4.1x 4.70x 4.8x 6.1x 4-11 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Comments on Inventory Turnover • • Inventory turnover is below industry average. • No improvement is currently forecasted. D’Leon might have old inventory, or its control might be poor. 4-12 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. DSO: Average Number of Days After Making a Sale Before Receiving Cash DSO = Receivables/Avg. sales per day = Receivables/(Annual sales/365) = $878/($7,036/365) = 45.6 days 4-13 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Appraisal of DSO DSO • • 2015E 2014 2013 Ind. 45.6 38.2 37.4 32.0 D’Leon collects on sales too slowly, and is getting worse. D’Leon has a poor credit policy. 4-14 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Fixed Assets and Total Assets Turnover Ratios vs. the Industry Average FA turnover = Sales/Net fixed assets = $7,036/$817 = 8.61x TA turnover = Sales/Total assets = $7,036/$3,497 = 2.01x 4-15 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Evaluating the FA Turnover (S/Net FA) and TA Turnover (S/TA) Ratios • • 2015E 2014 2013 Ind. FA TO 8.6x 6.4x 10.0x 7.0x TA TO 2.0x 2.1x 2.3x 2.6x FA turnover projected to exceed the industry average. TA turnover below the industry average. Caused by excessive currents assets (A/R and Inv). 4-16 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Calculate the Debt-to-Capital Ratio and Times-Interest-Earned Ratio Debt-to-capital ratio = Total debt/Total invested capital = ($300 + $400)/($300 + $400 + $1,952.4) = 26.4% TIE = EBIT/Interest = $492.6/$70 = 7.0x 4-17 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. D’Leon’s Debt Management Ratios vs. the Industry Averages 2015E 2014 2013 Ind. Debt/Total Inv. Capital 26.4% 73.4% 44.1% 40.0% TIE 7.0x -1.0x 4.3x 6.2x • Debt/Total invested capital and TIE are better than the industry average. 4-18 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Profitability Ratios: Operating Margin, Profit Margin, and Basic Earning Power Operating margin = EBIT/Sales = $492.6/$7,036 = 7.0% Profit margin = Net income/Sales = $253.6/$7,036 = 3.6% Basic earning power = EBIT/Total assets = $492.6/$3,497 = 14.1% 4-19 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Appraising Profitability with Operating Margin, Profit Margin, and Basic Earning Power Operating margin Profit margin Basic earning power 2015E 2014 7.0% -2.2% 3.6% -2.7% 14.1% -4.6% 2013 Ind. 5.5% 7.3% 2.6% 3.5% 13.0% 19.1% 4-20 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Appraising Profitability with Operating Margin, Profit Margin, and Basic Earning Power • • • • Operating margin was very bad in 2014. It is projected to improve in 2015, but it is still projected to remain below the industry average. Profit margin was very bad in 2014 but is projected to exceed the industry average in 2015. Looking good. BEP removes the effects of taxes and financial leverage, and is useful for comparison. BEP projected to improve, yet still below the industry average. There is definitely room for improvement. 4-21 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Profitability Ratios: Return on Assets, Return on Equity, and Return on Invested Capital ROA = Net income/Total assets = $253.6/$3,497 = 7.3% ROE = Net income/Total common equity = $253.6/$1,952 = 13.0% ROIC = [EBIT(1 T)]/Total invested capital = $295.6/$2,652.4 = 11.1% 4-22 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Appraising Profitability with ROA, ROE, and ROIC ROA ROE ROIC • • 2015E 7.3% 13.0% 11.1% 2014 -5.6% -32.5% -4.2% 2013 6.0% 13.3% 9.6% Ind. 9.1% 18.2% 14.5% All ratios rebounded from the previous year, but are still below the industry average. More improvement is needed. Wide variations in ROE illustrate the effect that leverage can have on profitability. 4-23 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Effects of Debt on ROA and ROE • Holding assets constant, if debt increases: Equity declines. Interest expense increases – which leads to a • • reduction in net income. ROA declines (due to the reduction in net income). ROE may increase or decrease (since both net income and equity decline). 4-24 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Problems with ROE • ROE and shareholder wealth are correlated, but problems can arise when ROE is the sole measure of performance. ROE does not consider risk. ROE does not consider the amount of capital • invested. Given these problems, reliance on ROE may encourage managers to make investments that do not benefit shareholders. As a result, analysts have looked to develop other performance measures, such as EVA. 4-25 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Calculate the Price/Earnings and Market/Book Ratios P/E = Price/Earnings per share = $12.17/$1.014 = 12.0x M/B = Market price/Book value per share = $12.17/($1,952/250) = 1.56x 2015E 2014 2013 Ind. P/E 12.0x -1.4x 9.7x 14.2x M/B 1.56x 0.5x 1.3x 2.4x 4-26 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Analyzing the Market Value Ratios • • • • P/E: How much investors are willing to pay for $1 of earnings. M/B: How much investors are willing to pay for $1 of book value equity. For each ratio, the higher the number, the better. P/E and M/B are high if expected growth is high and risk is low. 4-27 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. The DuPont Equation Equity Profit Total assets ROE margin turnover multiplier ROE (NI/Sales) (Sales/TA) (TA/Equity ) • Focuses on expense control (PM), asset utilization (TA TO), and debt utilization (equity multiplier). 4-28 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. DuPont Equation: Breaking Down Return on Equity ROE = (NI/Sales) x (Sales/TA) x (TA/Equity) = 3.6% x 2.01 x 1.7913 = 13.0% 2013 2014 2015E Ind. PM 2.6% -2.7% 3.6% 3.5% TA TO 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.6 EM 2.2 5.8 1.79 2.0 ROE 13.3% -32.5% 13.0% 18.2% 4-29 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. An Example: The Effects of Improving Ratios Accounts receivable Other current assets Net fixed assets Total assets $ 878 1,802 817 $3,497 Current liabilities Debt Equity Total liabilities & equity $ 845 700 1,952 $3,497 Sales/Day = $7,035,600/365 = $19,275.62 How would reducing the firm’s DSO to 32 days affect the company? 4-30 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Reducing Accounts Receivable and the Days Sales Outstanding • Reducing A/R will have no effect on sales Old A/R = $19,275.62 × 45.6 = $878,000 New A/R = $19,275.62 × 32.0 = $616,820 Cash freed up: • $261,180 Initially shows up as addition to cash. 4-31 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Effect of Reducing Receivables on Balance Sheet and Stock Price Added cash Accounts receivable Other current assets Net fixed assets Total assets $ 261 617 1,802 817 $3,497 Current liabilities Debt $ 845 700 Equity Total liabilities & equity 1,952 $3,497 What could be done with the new cash? How might stock price and risk be affected? 4-32 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Potential Uses of Freed Up Cash • • • • Repurchase stock Expand business Reduce debt All these actions would likely improve the stock price. 4-33 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Potential Problems and Limitations of Financial Ratio Analysis • • • • Comparison with industry averages is difficult for a conglomerate firm that operates in many different divisions. Different operating and accounting practices can distort comparisons. Sometimes it is hard to tell if a ratio is “good” or “bad.” Difficult to tell whether a company is, on balance, in a strong or weak position. 4-34 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. More Issues Regarding Ratios • • • • “Average” performance is not necessarily good, perhaps the firm should aim higher. Seasonal factors can distort ratios. “Window dressing” techniques can make statements and ratios look better than they actually are. Inflation has distorted many firms’ balance sheets, so analyses must be interpreted with judgment. 4-35 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. INTRO RATIO ANALYSIS DuPONT EQN EFFECTS ANALYSIS LIMITS QUAL. Consider Qualitative Factors When Evaluating a Company’s Future Financial Performance • • • • • Are the firm’s revenues tied to one key customer, product, or supplier? What percentage of the firm’s business is generated overseas? Firm’s competitive environment Future prospects Legal and regulatory environment 4-36 © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.