Crises related to
earthquakes
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
14 May 2014
17,00-19,00
1783
1783, historical framework
 8 June: eruption of Volcano Laki, Iceland,
9.350 victims
 3 September: Versailles Treaty, end of
USA independence war
 Russia (Emperess Cathrine II)
incorporates Crimea peninsula
 French revolution: -6 years
Messina, 5 February 1783
Messina, 5 February 1783
 50.000 victims
 Huge damages
 Morfological / geological changes (height
of mountains/hills, 215 new lakes,..)
Order of Malta: first on the spot
(fleet, tents, beds, doctors,
medicines)
Risk of armed conflict
Government of Naples: “Withdraw
immediately!”
De Rohan: “We help anybody in
difficulty”
Order of Malta allowed to organize
a field hospital
Lessons Learned
 Military units: always the first to arrive on
the spot
 National interests/sovereignty: not a
priority
 Importance of a permanent organization
(SMOM)
1908
1908, historical framework
 30 June: near Tanguska, Russia, a meteorith
destroys 2.150 km2 of forest
 5 October: Bulgaria declares independence
from the Ottoman Empire
 6 October: Austrian Empire incorporates
Bosnia-Herzegovina
 War Italy-Ottoman Empire about Lybia: -3
years
 WW1: -6 years
Messina-Reggio Calabria,
28 December 1908
Messina (99% destroyed):
150.000 inhabitants, 80.000
died
Reggio Calabria (91% destroyed):
45.000 inhabitants, 15.000
died
1st intervention (Dec 28): 5 Italian
military ships
2nd intervention (the day after): 6
Russian military ships and 6
British military ships
3rd intervention: military ships
from France, Spain, Germany,
Greece
22 Brigades of the Italian Army
coming from the Austrian border
“..take advantage
from the situation,
preemptively
attacking the
enemy and
occupying NorthEastern Italy”
(“Danzer’s Armée
Zeitung”, Vienna)
Lessons Learned
 Again: military units the first to intervene
 Natural disasters may affect national
security, international relations,
Geostrategy, big infrastructures…
1976
1976, historical framework
 21 January: 1st flight of aircraft “Concorde”
 9 March: 1st woman admitted at West Point
Military Academy
 7 April: in China Hua Guofeng substitutes
Deng Xiaoping
 16 June: USA ambassador killed in Beirut
 2 July: reunification of Vietnam
 20 July: space vehicle Viking lands on Mars
 24 November: earthquake in Turkey, 5.000
victims
Friuli, 6 May 1976
Friuli, 6 May 1976
 Area affected: 5.725 km2
Villages interested: 137
Population: 600.000 people
Victims: 1.000
Children without parents: about 200
Homeles: 70.000
Italian Army:
victim and rescuer
“Julia” Alpini
Brigade: in the
mountains
“Mantova” and
“Ariete” Divisions:
in the plain
From abroad:
1 CA Bn, 1 GE Engr
Bn
Preemptive attack
again from Warsaw
Pact?
Lessons Learned
 Role of military units (important also in
case of being victims)
 Again: link between natural disasters and
Geostrategy
 Necessity of establishing a permanent
structure of Civil Protection
Italian Civil Protection
http://www.protezionecivile.it/
1988
1988, historical framework
 16 March: Iraqi regime kills 5.000 Kurds (proIran) at Halabiya with WMD
 1 October: Mr. Gorbaciov head of Suprem
Soviet
 9 November: USA, Mr. George Bush sr.
elected
 21 December: Lockerbie, Scotland, 270 victims
 29 December: war Iran-Iraq ends
 Fall of the Berlin Wall: -1 year
 Disbandment of Soviet Union: -3 years
Spitak, Armenia,
7 December 1988
7 Dec: earthquake? nuclear explosion?
USSR government: 5 days silence
SPITAK, the White Town: 15.000 victims
12 Dec: Gorbaciov’s message “to all
Christian States…”
No “cooperation with developing countries”
IT C130: 1st NATO aircraft in USSR (an IT Air
Force General as coordinator [Cold War!])
Importance of self-sufficiency
Italian National Alpini Association
Foto raduno
Italian National Alpini Association
…its own
Civil Protection
structure
A very efficient duplication!
Lessons Learned
 Role of military units: confirmed
 Importance of self-sufficiency
 Italy (president of EEC) proposed a
European Civil Protection
 Help: without borders/ideologies
 Italy: country of…. Duplications
(Police!)
2005
2005, historical framework
 War in Afghanistan since 4 years
 2nd war in Iraq since 2 years
 10 January: Mr Abu Mazen substitutes
Mr Arafat as chief of PNA
 19 April: Card. Josef Ratzinger elected
as Pope Benedict XVI
 USA President: George W. Bush
 Pakistan President: Mr. Musharraf
Pakistan, 10 Oct 2005
74.000 dead, 70.000 wounded
Musharraf’s regime accepts aid also from India
Al Qaeda: take advantage from this situation
and topple Musharraf!
Solution:
NATO Response Force
NATO Response Force
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm
Launched at Prague Summit, 2002
Proposed by Mr. Rumsfeld
21.000 troops from Army, Navy, Air Force
Aim: oblige European Allies to do more
Lessons Learned
 International aid without borders (even by
enemies)
 NRF employment: different from initial idea
 Influence of earthquakes on Geopolitics (AQ vs
Musharraf)
 Reciprocal aid between Muslim countries:
difficult (Iraqi Engr Coy)
 Intervention in Muslim countries: peculiar
(women!)
Haiti, 12 January 2010
 300.000 victims
 1 million homeless
 Haiti destroyed, Dominican Republic nothing
USA: big role
EU: absent
Italy: …
“Cavour”
Minimum result with maximum effort…
a mission ENI-Finmeccanica-Fincantieri funded…
Lessons Learned
 Do earthquakes respect boundaries?
 International Organizations could do
more (EU)
 Military units always ready, …without
budget!
FUKUSHIMA, JAPAN 2011
 Earthquake: magnitude 8,9 (the worst in
the history of Japan, the 4th ever,
worldwide)
 Behaviour of authorities and population:
highly commendable, no panic, perfect
discipline, application of procedures
The real problem: the
following tsunami
 Tsunami: waves more than 10 meters high
 Huge damages to towns and crops
 54 nuclear plants (30% of the energy necessary to the
Country)
 (China: 12, + 18 under construction)
 Chernobyl: level 7, Fukushima: initially level 4 (no damages
beyond the perimeter)
 Later: worsening, contamination, population transferred at
more than 30 km
 economy: Nikkei index: -17% in 3 days
Lessons learned:
 Japanese consequence management in
case of earthquakes: perfect
 Earthquake + Tsunami: unpredictable
 Nuclear plants: not near the sea
 Psicological effects in Europe (Italy)
 In general: politicians/officials…
should attend a CM course (VIP
behaviour)!
EMILIA REGION,
ITALY 2012
Suggestion for a thesis:
 Different kinds of Crisis Management:
comparing Chernobyl and Fukushima
 How earthquakes affect domestic and
external policy
Crises related to
earthquakes
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
14 May 2014
17,00-19,00