IMPROVING PROGRAM PERFORMANCE
PRESENTED TO:
NATIONAL DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL ASSOCIATION (NDIA)
INDUSTRIAL COMMITTEE FOR
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT (ICPM)
November 18, 2008
Dave Burgess
Director, Cost Department (AIR 4.2)
E-mail: dave.burgess@navy.mil
Phone: (301) 757-7810
This document contains data, information, and analysis proprietary to
NAVAIR and the NAVAIR contractor community and is therefore designed
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE TEAM (PPT)
OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGIES
OBJECTIVE:
PROVIDE ANALYSIS, TOOLS, TRAINING AND
ASSISTANCE TO IMPROVE THE PLANNING
AND EXECUTION OF NAVAIR PROGRAMS.
STRATEGY:
IDENTIFY ROOT CAUSES FOR CONTRACTOR
COST AND SCHEDULE OVERRUNS AND
UNDERRUNS
IMPLEMENT JOINT GOVERNMENT AND
CONTRACTOR COUNTERMEASURES TO
OVERRUNS AND LEVERAGE LESSONS
LEARNED FROM UNDERRUNS
PPT ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN SUPPORTING THE
IMPROVEMENT OF PROGRAM PERFORMANCE
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (2)
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE TEAM
(PPT)
INDUSTRY
COOPERATIVE
EXCHANGE (ICE)
STRATEGIC
RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS
• Root cause analysis
• Government/ Industry
collaborative activities
• Government/ Industry
cooperative solutions
• Identification
of program
performance
issues
• Data-driven
analysis
ENCULTURATION
• Improve project mgmt
during execution phase
(all stakeholders)
• Provide specific training
• Evaluate, improve and
share lessons learned
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
3
skinner_20070628.ppt (3)
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE TEAM
(PPT)
INDUSTRY
COOPERATIVE
EXCHANGE (ICE)
STRATEGIC
RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS
• Root cause analysis
• Government/ Industry
collaborative activities
• Government/ Industry
cooperative solutions
• Identification
of program
performance
issues
• Data-driven
analysis
ENCULTURATION
• Improve project mgmt
during execution phase
(all stakeholders)
• Provide specific training
• Evaluate, improve and
share lessons learned
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
4
skinner_20070628.ppt (4)
STRATEGIC RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
Management
reserve
consumption
patterns
Cost & sched
estimating
improvements
AS9100:2008
changes
Specialty
metals
HYPOTHESES UNDER
INVESTIGATION
Supply chain risk
management
• The technical baseline at Milestone B
is inadequate
Protest
trends
Bills of
Material
Financial health
of supply chains
Program
startup support
Foreign exchange
rates impact on
programs
• Contractors are not staffed to meet
program schedules at contract award
Aviation program
trends / norms
Market
research
Industry
intelligence
Site
research
• Contractors do not understand
performance requirements during the
proposal phase
• Visibility into future technical milestone
results exists at early technical
milestones (CDR visibility at PDR,
SFR visibility at SRR)
• Changes to the Bill of Material can be
used to predict program cost growth
• Management reserve consumption can
be used to predict risk performance
• Supply chain risk management can
significantly affect program cost,
schedule, and technical performance
Pension
liabilities
PRIORITIES DRIVEN BY CHANGES IN EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OR INTERNAL DEMAND
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
5
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (5)
MS
SPIRIT AE
ROSYSTE
HONEYWE
LL
UNITED TE
CHNOLOG
IES
(SIKORSK
Y, P&W, H
AM. SUND
)
FINMECCA
NICA
(AGUSTAW
ESTLAND)
BAE SYSTE
MS
VOUGHT A
IRCRAFT
HEXCEL
ITT CORP
(EDO)
GOODRICH
ROLLS RO
YCE
BOEING
E
COLLINS
ROCKWELL
GKN AERO
SPAC
PARKER H
ANNIFIN
MOOG
ALLIANT TE
CHSYSTEM
S
KAMAN
HARRIS
ORBITAL S
CIENCES
IES
TEXTRON
(BELL)
DRS TECH
NOLOG
DYNAMICS
GENERAL
L3 COMMU
NICATION
S
P GRUMM
AN
NORTHRO
LOCKHEE
D MARTIN
RAYTHEO
N
GENERAL
ELECTRIC
CREDIT FREEZE SUSCEPTIBILITY
RISK RATING -QUICK RATIO
RISK RATING - L.T. DEBT
COMPOSITE RATING
*
*
*
QUICK RATIO
L3 Comm
Northrop Grumman
Raytheon
Lockheed Martin
DRS
Alliant
Orbital Sciences
General Dynamics
Harris
Kaman
33
Rockwell Collins
BAE Systems
Spirit
Moog
GKN
Vought
Rolls Royce
Goodrich
0
Less than 1
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
Textron
Parker Hannifin
Hexcel
United Technologies
Honeywell
Finmeccanica
(Agusta Westland)
1 to 1.5
QUICK RATIO
Visibility into financing arrangements with British and Italian
governments is limited; risks may be overstated.
L3 Comm
2.4
PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE
FROM FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE
FROM FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
100
Boeing
ITT (EDO)
*
L.T. DEBT RATING (S&P)
100
67
*
2.4
Northrop Grumman
Orbital Sciences
DRS
Alliant
Raytheon
Lockheed Martin
General Dynamics
67
Harris
Kaman
ITT (EDO)
Moog
33
Boeing
GKN
Rockwell Collins
Vought
Spirit
Hexcel
Textron
BAE Systems
Rolls Royce Parker Hannifin
Goodrich
United Technologies
Honeywell
Finmeccanica
(Agusta Westland)
General Electric
Greater than 1.5
0
6
Speculative/Junk
Medium Grade
S&P LONG-TERM DEBT RATING
General Electric
High Grade/Prime
skinner_20070628.ppt (6)
MANAGEMENT RESERVE
CUMULATIVE % OF AVAILABLE MR EXPENDED RELATIVE TO % COMPLETION
100%
OVER-SPENDING MR
RELATIVE TO %
COMPLETION
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
% EXPENDED
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
A
35%
B
30%
C
25%
D
20%
E
15%
F
UNDER-SPENDING MR
RELATIVE TO %
COMPLETION
10%
5%
G
H
0%
0%
5%
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45% 50% 55%
% COMPLETE
7
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95% 100%
skinner_20070628.ppt (7)
MANAGEMENT RESERVE
89.3%
87.4%
85.6%
85.0%
84.1%
85.4%
84.5%
83.5%
81.1%
79.5%
78.2%
77.0%
75.6%
74.2%
72.3%
70.8%
69.2%
67.8%
66.0%
64.0%
61.5%
58.2%
55.6%
53.3%
52.2%
50.1%
47.7%
43.2%
40.7%
39.6%
37.4%
34.1%
31.4%
28.4%
25.2%
23.1%
10.0%
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
20.9%
8
18.6%
7
16.2%
6
14.3%
5
12.1%
4
8.0%
3
5.9%
2
4.3%
1
3.0%
UNDER CONTROL
$50,000,000
$45,000,000
$40,000,000
$35,000,000
CDR
$30,000,000
TRR
IBR
FF
PRR
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
MS C
$15,000,000
$17,484,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$0
SRR
PDR
($5,000,000)
($10,000,000)
($15,000,000)
($20,000,000)
($25,000,000)
MANAGEMENT RESERVE SPENT
($30,000,000)
MANAGEMENT RESERVE GAINED
MANAGEMENT RESERVE BURN DOWN
($35,000,000)
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
8
skinner_20070628.ppt (8)
MANAGEMENT RESERVE
NOT UNDER CONTROL
83.4%
83.6%
83.6%
83.2%
81.7%
80.7%
79.8%
79.1%
77.7%
76.8%
75.4%
73.9%
72.3%
70.6%
68.7%
66.8%
65.2%
63.2%
61.3%
59.3%
54.3%
52.0%
50.6%
53.7%
52.2%
50.1%
47.2%
45.0%
43.2%
39.4%
37.3%
35.0%
33.0%
29.7%
27.2%
25.4%
23.3%
21.6%
19.4%
18.2%
15.6%
13.7%
12.1%
10.4%
8.9%
7.6%
6.2%
4.9%
3.8%
2.9%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
$350,000,000
$300,000,000
$250,000,000
$200,000,000
$150,000,000
IBR
PDR
TRR
OTB
$0
($50,000,000)
($100,000,000)
($150,000,000)
$70,717,000
CDR
3X INITIAL MR BURNED
1X INITIAL MR BURNED
$50,000,000
($200,000,000)
($250,000,000)
FF
SFR
2X INITIAL MR BURNED
$100,000,000
OTB
MANAGEMENT RESERVE SPENT
MANAGEMENT RESERVE GAINED
MANAGEMENT RESERVE BURN DOWN
($300,000,000)
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
9
skinner_20070628.ppt (9)
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE TEAM
(PPT)
INDUSTRY
COOPERATIVE
EXCHANGE (ICE)
STRATEGIC
RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS
• Root cause analysis
• Government/ Industry
collaborative activities
• Government/ Industry
cooperative solutions
• Identification
of program
performance
issues
• Data-driven
analysis
ENCULTURATION
• Improve project mgmt
during execution phase
(all stakeholders)
• Provide specific training
• Evaluate, improve and
share lessons learned
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
10
skinner_20070628.ppt (10)
COLLABORATIVE IMPROVEMENT ACTIVITY
DATA DRIVEN JOINT IMPROVEMENT
IMPROVEMENT FOCUSED ON DELIVERING WHAT WAS PROMISED
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
11
skinner_20070628.ppt (11)
COMMON ISSUES
COMMON ISSUES DESCRIPTION
REPRESENTATIVE PROJECTS
SUBCONTRACTOR MANAGEMENT
• Supply Chain Management
• Risk Management
SYSTEM ENGINEERING
• Systems Engineering Summits
• Bills of Material
– REQUIREMENTS DEFINITION
INTEGRATED MASTER SCHEDULE (IMS)
• IMS Project
STAFFING/RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
• EVM Variance Reports
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
• Program Management Project
• Basket of Metrics
• Metric Project
• Risk Management Project
• Rates
• Concept-to-Contract
• CDRLs Project
• Sole Source Efficiencies
– METRICS
– RISK MANAGEMENT
REQUIREMENTS FLOWDOWN
– CONTRACTING (ex. CDRLs, CLAUSES)
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY OBJECTIVE (STO)
ALIGNMENT & IRAD
• IRAD Project
PRODUCTION
• Unit Cost Reduction
WORKING SPECIFIC PROJECTS ACROSS INDUSTRY
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
12
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (12)
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE TEAM
(PPT)
INDUSTRY
COOPERATIVE
EXCHANGE (ICE)
STRATEGIC
RESEARCH
& ANALYSIS
• Root cause analysis
• Government/ Industry
collaborative activities
• Government/ Industry
cooperative solutions
• Identification
of program
performance
issues
• Data-driven
analysis
ENCULTURATION
• Improve project mgmt
during execution phase
(all stakeholders)
• Provide specific training
• Evaluate, improve and
share lessons learned
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
13
skinner_20070628.ppt (13)
STARTUPS
• PROGRAM ASSISTANCE AT LAUNCH
– INITIAL PROGRAMS: BAMS, JPALS, EPX,
VH-71, EMALS/AAG
– TARGETED SUPPORT FOR PROGRAMS
THROUGH IBR
– UTILIZED LESSONS LEARNED
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
14 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (14)
PROGRAM PERFORMANCE SUPPORT
ANALYSIS AND TOOLS
M/S A
DAB
JCIDS
JROC
JROC
FSA
ICD
ICD
++
CONOPS
CONOPS
Draft
Draft
ICD
ICD
AoA
AoA
Plan
Plan
PROGRAM BASELINE
M/S B
DAB
M/S A’
Draft
Draft CDD
CDD ++
CONOPS
CONOPS
Draft
Draft CDD
CDD ++
CONOPS
CONOPS
Rev
Rev 00
1
Rev
Rev 1..n
1..n
Final
Final CDD
CDD ++
CONOPS
CONOPS
3
2
4
5
6
SSA
TMA
TMA
AoA
AoA
Preferred
Preferred
System
System
Concept
Concept
System
System
Definition
Definition
(SDS)
(SDS)
System
System
Spec
Spec
Technology Development &
System Requirements Development
Maturity Assessment
& Technology Demonstration
Concept Refinement
Production
Production
Spec
Spec
RFP
RFP
System Development and Demonstration
Models &/or
Prototypes
Defense
Acq
System
ASR
ITR
Phase 0
SRR I
Phase I
AoA: Analysis of Alternatives
CDD: Capability Development Document
FSA: Functional Solution Analysis
RFP: Request For Proposal
SDS: System Design Specification
SRR II
SFR
Test
Articles
PDR
CDR
Phase II
Phase III
KEY:
TMA: Technology Maturity Assessment
DAB: Defense Acquisition Board
JROC: Joint Requirements Oversight Council
ICD: Initial Capabilities Document
SSA: Source Selection Authority
Technical
Underpinnings
Cost Risk
Schedule Risk Technical Risk
Assessment Assessment
Assessment
Solid Understanding of Requirements
Realistic Baseline
PARTNERING WITH INDUSTRY
INFORMATION VISIBILITY
Boeing Common WBS Elements
LRE in $,000
$60,000
LRE Variance $
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
UNFAVORABLE
$20,000
FAVORABLE
$10,000
$0
($10,000)
($20,000)
Collaborative
Process
Overhead
Undistributed Budget
Management Reserve
General & Administrative
Air Vehicle
Field Services
Program / Project Management
Technology
Flight Control
Cost of Money
Product Assurance
Configuration Mgmt
Loading / Payloads / Equipment
Survivability
Information Systems
Testing & Evaluation
Crew Station / Systems
Furnishings / Equipment
Maintenance Instructions
Logistical Support Analysis
Wing
Other
Services
In Service Engineering
Design to Cost / Life Cycle Cost
Supportability / Support Equipment
Training
Avionics
Airframe
ECP / LLP
Data / Software - Handling & Management
Armament
Propulsion
Landing Gear
Targeting & Sensors
Instructions / Publications
Electrical & Electrical Systems
Fuselage
Flight Test
Repairability
Environmental
Penetration Aids
Communication / Navigation
Supplier / Supply Chain Mgmt
Systems Engineering / Integration
($30,000)
Improvement Activity
“Lean Six Sigma”
Burning
Platform
Continuous Improvement
Cockpit
Chart
Leading
Indicators
Transform Data into Information
LESSONS LEARNED
Assessment
Assessment
Cockpit Mgmt, Controls, & Display
LESSONS LEARNED
REQUIREMENTS DEFINITION
Hydraulics / Pneumatics / Mechanical
EXECUTION
PLANNING
LESSONS LEARNED
LESSONS LEARNED
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
15
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (15)
BACKUP SLIDES
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
16
skinner_20070628.ppt (16)
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS – QUICK LOOK
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS
Ticker:
S&P long-term:
S&P short-term:
NAVAIR supply chain:
% work from Gov't:
Largest customer:
SPR
BB
-Tier 1
29%
Boeing (est. 80%)
Quick Ratio:
Current Ratio:
2008 Free Cash Flow ($M):
2007 Free Cash Flow ($M):
# of Employees:
# of Locations:
0.7
2.8
$7.0
$181.0
~ 14,000
5
SPIRIT PRESENCE IN NAVAIR PROGRAMS
P-8A
Fuselage
OTHER DOD ENTITIES:
CH-53K
Cockpit
Cabin
Assembly w/ tail section
C-130 Gunship components and assemblies
E-3 engine cowls, AWACS radome spares / service
V-22
Low-observable components
B-52 spares
F/A-18 E/F
E-6
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
Components
Assemblies
KC-135 spares
Radomes
Control surfaces
17
skinner_20070628.ppt (17)
OTHER ACTIVITIES
• DoD/NDIA SCHEDULING SUB-GROUP
–
COORDINATED EFFORT TO DEVELOP COMMON UNDERSTANDING
OF IMS REQUIREMENTS AND PROCESS
–
DEVELOP A DOD/INDUSTRY INTENT GUIDE FOR THE IMS PROCESS
(ANSI STANDARD)
• ICPM PREDICTIVE MEASURES OF PROGRAM
PERFORMANCE
–
DEVELOP A COMMON SET OF PREDICTIVE MEASURES FOR
PROGRAM MANAGERS THAT IDENTIFYING ISSUES EARLY AND
ULTIMATELY TO ENSURE PROGRAM SUCCESS
• AIRSpeed - INTEGRATED MASTER SCHEDULES
–
LEAD SCHEDULING REPRESENTATIVE FOR NAVAIR COMMANDERS
CONFERENCE INITIATIVE TO ADDRESS ROOT CAUSES OF PROGRAM
SCHEDULE GROWTH AND MITIGATE
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (18)
TRAINING
• AVAILABLE TRAINING
• EVM BASICS – 4 HOURS
• SCHEDULING FOR IPTS – 6 HOURS
• TRAINING UNDER DEVELOPMENT
• Baseline Development, Management Use of Data
• EVM BASICS ON-SITE TRAINING
(ORLANDO, LAKEHURST, 4.5, 4.6, 4.8. PMA 208,
PMA 263, PMA 274, ETC.)
TRAINING CAN BE CUSTOMIZED/TAILORED
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (19)
BASKET OF METRICS INITIATIVE:
APPROACH
“Good Metrics”
Metrics - 20 sources
“Level 1 or PM metrics”
Organized by
Program Phase
1558
1ST review
?
2ND review
In
work
1
Document
Available
Metrics
PPT
B
F
Mapping
• Eliminated
redundant metrics
• Screened for
“forward-looking”
characteristics
• Screened for key
attributes
A
?
• Cataloging
• Gap Analysis
• Recommendation
Potential
Metrics
C
Basket of
Metrics
D
E
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
20
skinner_20070628.ppt (20)
TRANSFORMING DATA
INTO ACTIONABLE INFORMATION
lessons learned
“DATA TRANSPARENCY”
AT ALL LEVELS
Product
Consumer
Group Cockpit Chart
For Official Use Only
May 2008 ($ in M)
NAVAIR
Significant Issues and Performance Factors
# of Contracts
12-Month Trend
This Period
60
25
21
19
20
40
30
For Official Use Only
May 2008 ($ in M)
15
20
10
Significant Issues and
Performance Factors
0
05/ 07
08/ 07
11/ 07
T ot al
02/ 08
Gr een
Y el l ow
# of Contracts
8
10
12-Month Trend
This Period
5
05/ 08
30
0
Red
12
10
25
10
20
% of Contracts
12-Month Trend
This Period
7
8
15
6
10
STRATEGIC
AIR-00 &
PEO’s
OPERATIONAL
PEO’s &
PMA’s
TACTICAL
PMA’s &
IPT’s
6
5
4
0
100%
05/ 07
80%
60%
08/ 07
11/ 07
02/ 08
05/ 08
39.6%
T ot al
43.8%
40%
Gr een
Y el l ow
% of Contracts
20%
0%
05/ 07
08/ 07
11/ 07
02/ 08
Red
2
0
12-Month Trend
This Period
05/ 08
100%
Gr een
Y el l ow
Current CBB
Red
16 . 7 %
12-Month Trend
2 6 . 1%
80%
60%
This Period
43.5%
40%
20%
$40,000
0%
20.9%
05/ 07
08/ 07
11/ 07
02/ 08
05/ 08
$30,000
$20,000
Gr een
Y el l ow
30.4%
Red
5.2%
$10,000
Current CBB
$0
Cost Growth Data by Group
Group
Original
CBB
05/ 07
08/ 07
11/ 07
Scope
Growth
4.2 EAC
Total
Growth
Overrun
Gr een
%Scope
Growth
$2
$2
$10
$0
$8
$8
PEO (2)
$23,394
$25,965
$37,508
$2,571
$11,543
$14,114
%Overrun
2%
333%
11%
49%
Group
$10,199
$11,057
$15,855
$858
$4,797
$5,656
$3,461
$3,707
$4,394
$246
$686
$933
7%
PMA-ABC 20%
$40,000
$35,000
$2,720
$30,000
PEO (5)
$1,301
$1,369
$1,471
$69
$103
$170
5%
PMA-BCD 8%
$1,702
$42,102
$59,238
$3,745
$17,138
$10,000
12-Month Trend
This Period
47%
$20,881
Overrun
$50,000
05/ 07
%Scope
Growth
$3,447
11/ 07
$32
02/ 08
$1,831
EAC
$47
$0
$40,000
$727
$262
$30,000
$3,070
05/ 08
$5,035
Or i g. CB B
08/ 07
11/ 07
02/ 08
05/ 08
%Overrun
Gr een
$727
0%
27%
$3,333
15%
180%
Y el l ow
$1,841
$2
$47
$10
Or i g. CB B
$11 LRE
T AB
$0
0%
EAC
Red
2.9%
49%
15%
$294
$28
$6
$34
11%
2%
$15,855
$858
$4,797
$5,656
8%
47%
$551
$984
12-Month Trend
$19,000
$17,000
$15,000
$13,000
$11,000
$9,000
$7,000
1%
$15
$1,535
$288
$11,057
$5,191
$15
CB B
$260
$4,207
Cost Growth
$35,000
CB B
$10,199
$3,656
PEO(3)
Total
Growth
$55,000
$45,000
08/ 07
$1,964
$1,830 T A B
PMA-DEF
PMA-EFG
PMA-FGH
43.8%
53.2%
$0
$60,000
Scope
Growth
4.2 EAC
$2,720
05/ 07
10%PMA-CDE45%
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$65,000
Current
CBB
LRE
$38,357
This Period
$12,000
Red
$8,000
$60,000
$55,000
Original
$50,000
CBB
$45,000
PEO (3)
8%
12-Month Trend
05/ 08
Y el l ow
Cost Growth
Cost Growth Data by
Group
$65,000
PEO (4)
NAVAIR
02/ 08
73.9%
Current
CBB
PEO (1)
0%
27%
This Period
$19,000
$17,000
$15,000
$13,000
$11,000
05/ 07
08/ 07
11/ 07
02/ 08
05/ 08
$9,000
$7,000
LRE
Or i g. CB B
T AB
EAC
CB B
Or i g. CB B
CB B
T AB
LRE
EAC
PEO Trends
NAVAIR Trends
50
PEO(3)
Project Cockpit Chart
For Official Use Only
May 2008 ($ in K)
Program ABC
Progress
Status
$640,000
Estimates
Management Sy stem Rating
CPI Cum.
EVEN 1.00
SPI Cum.
DOWN 0.91
VAC%
$3,700,000
EVEN (-27%)
$3,500,000
$540,000
$3,300,000
$340,000
$240,000
$140,000
5/ 07
8/ 07
11/ 07
B CWS
2/ 08
B CWP
5/ 08
A CWP
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
5/ 07
8/ 07 11/ 07
2/ 08
5/ 08
5/ 07
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
8/ 07 11/ 07 2/ 08
5/ 08
$3,100,000
$2,900,000
$2,700,000
$2,500,000
$2,300,000
$2,100,000
5/ 07
8/ 07 11/ 07
2/ 08
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
$ in K
$2,719,626
$178,703
$3,447,088
Progress
Spent
Scheduled
Performed
Pct.
19%
21%
19%
Growth
Scope (Realized)
Ov errun (Est.)
Schedule (Est.)
Pct.
0%
27%
0%
0.90
SP I
11/ 07
2/ 08
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
5/ 07
briefed in Dec 08. The SRA, IBR, and EAC are dependent upon the Sept 08 completed IMS
8/ 07
11/ 07
2/ 08
MR
% of E T C
11/ 07
2/ 08
5/ 08
Staffing (Prime )
re-plan. EVM reporting w ill continue as normal until contractual actions hav e finalized.
$20,000
1000
IMS continues to lack detail plans and exhibits poor schedule performance
$10,000
$0
800
There are 38 planning packages w ithin the rolling w av e. Cumulativ e incomplete tasks hav e
($10,000)
600
increased to 843 through April. IOC milestone has mov ed from 29 Sept 2015 to 3 Dec 2015.
($20,000)
400
($30,000)
($40,000)
200
SPI and CPI continues downward trend through April 2008
($50,000)
($60,000)
8/ 07
11/ 07
CV Cum.
2/ 08
0
The CUM SPI degraded from 0.94 to 0.92 mostly due to Fuselage, Rotors, and Trans. The
5/ 08
5/ 07
A ct ual
$50,000
The red rating is due to lack of detail planning w ithin rolling w av e, inability to use all the
$40,000
information from latest SRA, unrealistic LRE, and CARs from the Nav y EVM Rev iew .
$30,000
$10,000
$0
11/ 07
B CWS
2/ 08
5/ 08
B ur n Rat e
5/ 08
100%
80%
60%
Contract Profile
$20,000
P l an
Tasks Finished
Management Systems rating remains red for April 2008
8/ 07
8/ 07
CUM CPI degraded from 1.01 to 1.00 mostly due to Rotors and Trans.
SV Cum.
Burn Rate
5/ 07
8%
$0
planned to finish in Sept 08 w ith a follow -on IBR in Nov . The 4.2 EAC is forecasted to be
T CP I (E A C)
7%
6%
$50,000
Rev 2D configuration w ill be the official plan forw ard for the program. SAC IMS re-plan is
5/ 08
T CP I (LRE )
Variances (Cum.)
5/ 07
5/ 08
EAC
$150,000
$100,000
IMS re-plan for Rev 2D will drive the IBR and EAC events
0.85
0.80
8/ 07
2/ 08
E A C CM P
$250,000
$200,000
AIR 4.2 Assessment
0.95
CP I
11/ 07
E A C CP I
5/ 08
MR on Contract
Cost
TAB
MR
EAC
1.20
5/ 07
8/ 07
LRE
5/ 07
Indices (Period)
40%
Vendor
ABC Aircraft Company
Contract
Contract Number
Award Amount $3,052,184
Type
Contract Ty pe
Current Amount $3,052,184
Start Date
1/3/2006
Last Award Fee 9/30/2007
Est. End Date 12/31/2015
Next Award Fee 9/30/2008
PMA
Category
Total OTB's
Last OTB
Next OTB
20%
I
0
NA
NA
0%
5/ 07
8/ 07
11/ 07
2/ 08
I ncompl et e
On T i me/ E ar l y
<= 1 M ont h Lat e
> 1 M ont h Lat e
5/ 08
Project Trends
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
$440,000
Monthly Detailed Analysis
Baseline Execution
500
Still Incomplete
Finish less than One Month Late
Finish Over One Month Late
Finish On Time
Finish Early
Futuretaskplanned
450
BEI for this month 86%
400
Number of Tasks
300
250
48% Incomplete in May
410
200
150
100
118
50
49
59
46
36
36
29
7
Ja
n -0
8
Fe
b08
7
7
-0
7
-0
ec
D
7
7
-0
ov
ug
-0
Ju
l-0
O
ct
N
Sep
-0
A
6
Ja
n -0
7
6
6
Fe
b07
M
ar
-0
7
A
pr
-0
7
M
ay
-0
7
Ju
n07
-0
ec
D
6
6
-0
6
-0
ov
ug
-0
N
Ju
l-0
O
ct
Sep
-0
A
Fe
b06
M
ar
-0
6
A
pr
-0
6
M
ay
-0
6
Ju
n06
0
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
18
Project Details
350
21
skinner_20070628.ppt (21)
LEADING INDICATORS
INTER-RELATIONSHIP AND FLOW
FORMAT 3 PERFORMANCE
MEASUREMENT BASELINE (PMB)
FORMAT 4 STAFFING
Staffing
Budget
Year 3
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-06
Oct-07
Sep-06
Sep-07
Aug-06
Aug-07
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jun-06
Jun-07
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
May-07
8
Mar-07
7
Feb-07
6
Jan-07
5
Dec-06
4
Nov-06
3
May-06
Year 3
2
Apr-06
Award
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Year 2
1
Mar-06
Year 1
0
Feb-06
Year 2
Award
Year 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Apr-07
Mar 07 CPR
$35,000
750
650
PROJECTED BURN RATE
$30,000
550
PROJECTED WORKFORCE
REQUIRED
450
350
250
Budget Spend (BCWS)
Actual Spend (ACWP)
Next Six Months Budget Plan
Last Month's Six Month Budget Plan
Actual $ Under or Over Plan
Cumulative $ Under or Over Plan
$25,000
$20,000
150
$15,000
50
CUMULATIVE WORKFORCE
AHEAD OR BEHIND
-50
-150
-250
Planned Staff (+1 Month)
Actual Staff
Contracted Staff
Next Six Months Staffing Plan
Last Month's Six Month Staffing Plan
Actual Man-Months Under or Over Plan
Cumulative Man-Months Under or Over Plan
-350
-450
-550
-650
-750
$10,000
$5,000
$0
-$5,000
BASELINE EXECUTION CHART
-$10,000
-$15,000
INTEGRATED MASTER SCHEDULE
Schedule
FY
2004
1
2
3
2005
4
Acquisition
Milestones &
Reviews
Test &
Evaluation
Activities
2
3
2006
4
1
2
2007
3
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
4
FRP
MS C
MS B
IOC
Systems
Engineering
Activities
Contracting
Activities
1
PDR
RFP
CDR
First Flight
SDD Contract Award
System Integration Lab Testing/ Integrated Flight Test
OPEVAL
OA
COST PERFORMANCE
INDEX / SCHEDULE
PERFORMANCE INDEX
Combined DT/OT
System
Deliveries
LRIP 1
Eng. Dev.
Model
LRIP 2
LRIP 3
FRP 1
Total Program
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Oct-06
Dec-07
Sep-06
Nov-07
Aug-06
Oct-07
Jul-06
Sep-07
Jun-06
Aug-07
May-06
Jul-07
Apr-06
1.40
Jun-07
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
May-07
8
Apr-07
7
Mar-07
6
Feb-07
5
Jan-07
4
Dec-06
3
Nov-06
2
400
CUMULATIVE
DELINQUENT
WORK
Year 3
1
Mar-06
Year 2
0
Feb-06
Cumulative Finish less than
One Month Late
Cumulative Finish Over One
Month Late
Cumulative Still Incomplete
500
Award
Year 1
CPI
SPI
1.30
300
1.20
200
1.10
1.00
100
Jan-08
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
May-07
Jan-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Apr-06
Jun-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
May-06
0.90
0
0.80
22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (22)
INDUSTRY’S TUG OF WAR
(CUSTOMER vs MARKET)
DATA FROM 2007 ANNUAL REPORTS
55% Total
JUL 08 DATA
Growth
$250,000
Earnings / Profit
DIVERGENT
CENTERS
OF GRAVITY
45% Cost
10% Scope
Growth
Growth
Orig. CBB
CBB
TAB
LRE
$50,000
Sales / Revenue
Gov / KTR
Variance
$200,000
$40,000
$150,000
$30,000
$100,000
$20,000
$50,000
$10,000
$0
AIR 4.2 EAC
$0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
CUSTOMER
MARKET
Warfighter / Taxpayer
Stockholder
Program Performance
Cost / Sched / Technical
Financial Performance
Sales / Profit / Cash Flow
2007
DIVERGENT PRESSURES MUST BE OVERCOME
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
23
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (23)
NAVAIR COST GROWTH ANALYSIS
JULY 2008 CONTRACTOR BREAKOUT %
250%
230%
210%
3 X Average
Cost Growth
190%
170%
150%
130%
110%
90%
Average
Cost Growth
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
% Overrun vs. Initial CBB
% Scope Growth vs. Initial CBB
A
B
C
D
158%
165%
82%
62%
28%
17%
7%
9%
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
All
Contracts
25%
18%
21%
0%
22%
26%
6%
12%
0%
14%
1%
0%
45%
22%
25%
12%
29%
4%
0%
20%
6%
17%
0%
0%
0%
10%
E
NAVAIR Contractor Breakout
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
24
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
skinner_20070628.ppt (24)
RESEARCH FOCUS AREAS
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
2006 FOCUS
AREA
PROGRAM
PERFORMANCE TEAM
65%
FOCUS AREAS
HISTORICAL
$ COST
GROWTH
* total program
cost, incl. gov’t
2007 FOCUS
AREA
PLANNED COST / SCHED / TECH
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT & DEMONSTRATION
MS
B
ACTUAL SCHED
35%
HISTORICAL
SCHED GROWTH
* MS B to IOC
?
53 PROGRAMS WITH EV BEING ANALYZED FOR
2008 FOCUS
AREA
COST / SCHED / TECH ROOT CAUSES
FOCUSED ON ROOT CAUSES OF
QUANTIFIABLE COST AND SCHEDULE GROWTH
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
25
skinner_20070628.ppt (25)
PROGRAM COST GROWTH
RDT&E (SDD)
PRODUCTION
AVG RDT&E (SDD)
COST GROWTH FROM APB
AVG PRODUCTION
COST GROWTH FROM APB
(ACROSS ALL PROGRAMS)
(ACROSS ALL PROGRAMS)
65%
48%
ESTIMATING
ASSUMPTIONS
20%
SCHEDULE
• CER’s
• LABOR
RATES
ESTIMATING
CHANGES
52%
ASSUMPTIONS
21%
• LABOR, MATERIAL,
RATES
• SUPPORT COSTS
• NON-RECURRING
• GFE, OTHER
• CA TO CDR
• CDR TO FIRST FLT
• FIRST FLT TO IOC
TECHNICAL BASELINES
59%
SCHEDULE
CHANGES
17%
• YR TO YR
QTY CHANGES
ENGINEERING
CHANGES
31%
• WEIGHT
• # TEST ARTICLES
• VOLUME
• # TEST FLIGHTS
• COMMONALITY
• SOFTWARE
• CONFIGURATION
CHANGES
• BLOCK UPGRADES
SIGNIFICANT APB COST GROWTH IN BOTH SDD & PRODUCTION
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
26
skinner_20070628.ppt (26)
FOUR-PHASE ACQUISITION
AS IS
•
MS-A
MS-B
Concept Refinement
MS-C
Technology
Development
System Development & Demonstration
•
•
SRR
SFR
PDR
CDR
TRR FRR
SVR /
PRR
•
ENTER MS-B WITH AN IMMATURE
SYSTEM SPECIFICATION
RESULTS IN LESS INFORMED
MILESTONE DECISIONS
FOSTERS POORLY DEFINED
PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS &
BASELINES
LEADS TO COST / SCHEDULE
GROWTH DURING EXECUTION
TO BE…
MS-A
Concept Refinement
PHASE I
ITR
GATE
1
MS-B
Concept
Refinement &
Maturity
Assessment
System Requirements
Development &
Technology
Demonstration
PHASE II
PHASE III
ASR
2
SRR I
SRR II
SFR
3
PASS 1
• OUTPUT OF EACH PHASE MEETS
INPUT CRITERIA FOR GATE REVIEWS
MS-C
System Development
& Demonstration
• GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR
MATURING CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES
PHASE IV
Prototypes PDR
4
5
CDR
TRR FRR
6
SVR /
PRR
• ALLOWS FOR COMPETITIVE
PRESSURES TO BETTER OPTIMIZE
COST/SCHED/PERFORMANCE
• GREATLY IMPROVED LIKELIHOOD OF
MEETING COST/SCHED
PASS 2
…START “SLOW” TO GO “FAST”
BRIEF DATE: 18 November 2008
CONFIG. MGR: Tom Crickmer, AIR-4.2, (301) 757-2278
FILE NAME: NDIA_ICPM_20081118_V1.ppt
27
skinner_20070628.ppt (27)