The Global Financial Crisis, International Trade & Piracy: Impacts on Marine Insurance Markets Insurance Information Institute 12 May 2009 Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: (212) 346-5520 bobh@iii.org www.iii.org Presentation Outline The Global Economic Storm: Financial Crisis & Recession • Survey of International Economic Growth Statistics • Industrial Production and Global Supply Chains • Inflation Trends Economic Threats to Marine Insurance Markets • • • • Top Causes of Decline in International Trade Major Trade and Marine Exposure Trends Merchandise Trade (Import/Export) Analysis by Region Economic Stimulus Impacts—Global Review Financial Strength • Ratings • Investment Performance Piracy: Trends by Region, Nature of Attack THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC STORM What Financial Crisis and Recession Mean for the Marine (Re)Insurance Industry & International Trade 6.6% 8.0% 9.1% 0.5% 0.6% 3.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.6% 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% Steep declines in GDP will negatively impact trade on a global scale. 6% 2% 2010F All major economies China are in recession. 8% 4% 2009F 2.0% 10% 2008E 0.7% 12% 2007 2.6% 1.0% 14% 11.9% Real GDP By Market 2007-2010F (% change from previous year) -8% Euro Area Germany Japan Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 4/10/09 edition. US -3.0% -2.6% -5.6% -6% -3.2% -4% -2.8% -2% -0.7% 0% UK China Real GDP for Selected Large Trading States, 2007-2010F, (% change from prior yr.) 2008E 5.7% 5.3% All major economies except China are in recession 1.0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.9% 2.1% 3.1% 2.2% 0.7% 1% 1.9% 2% 0.5% 3% 2.7% 4% 3.3% 5% 3.5% 6% 2010F 1.0% 7% 2009F 2.1% 2007 -4% Canada Brazil Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 4/10/09 edition. France Netherlands -1.5% -0.7% Mexico -1.4% -3% -2.7% -2% -2.0% -1% -1.8% 0% Belgium Real GDP for Selected Large Trading States, 2007-2010F, (% change from prior yr.) All major economies except China are in recession 1.6% 2.4% 4.0% 2.1% 6.4% 2.6% 1.1% 2% 2.6% 0.8% 4% 2.6% 5.0% 5.7% 6% 7.7% 10% 3.0% 12% 8% 2010F 6.6% 8.0% 14% 2009F 9.1% 2008E 11.6% 2007 Taiwan S. Korea Singapore Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 4/10/09 edition. Hong Kong -0.8% -3.2% -6% -4.8% -4% -4.2% -2% -0.7% -2.4% 0% Australia China 3.1% 10:4Q 2.3% 1.6% 2.9% -6% 10:3Q -4% 2.7% -2% 10:2Q -0.2% -2.1% -0.5% 0% 0.4% 0.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 2.5% Recession began in December 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction is growing 0.1% 2% 1.6% 0.8% 4% 3.7% 6% 4.8% 4.8% United States : Real GDP Growth* The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.4% -6.3% -6.1% 10:1Q 09:4Q 09:3Q 09:2Q 09:1Q 08:4Q 08:3Q 08:2Q 08:1Q 07:4Q 07:3Q 07:2Q 07:1Q 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 -8% *Blue bars are Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 4/09; Insurance Information Institute. GDP Growth: Advanced & Emerging Economies vs. World 1970-2010F The world economy is forecast to grow by 0.5% in 2009, but could shrink for the first time since WW II —by 1% to 2% according to the World Bank. 10.0 8.0 Emerging economies (led by China) are expected to grow by 3.3% in 2009 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 10 08 06 04 02 00 98 96 94 92 90 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 -4.0 88 -2.0 86 Advanced economies will shrink by 1.9% in 2009, dampening energy demand World Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, Jan. 28, 2009; Ins. Info. Institute. Industrial Production Sharp Decline in Production Spread by Global Supply Chains Global Industrial Production Is in a Tailspin, Signaling Weakness in Trade Annualized 3-Month Percent Change Industrial demand for energy has been particularly hard hit 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 Global industrial production was down 13% in late 2008, adversely impacting energy demand -10.0 -15.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update, Jan. 28, 2009; Ins. Info. Institute. Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2010F (Millions of Units) Weakening economy, credit crunch are hurting auto sales; Gas prices less of a factor now. 19 18 17.4 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.6 17 16.9 16.9 New auto/light truck sales are expected to experience a net drop of 6.7 million units annually by 2009 compared with 2005, a decline of 39.6% and the lowest level since the late 1960s 16.5 16.1 16 15 Impacts of falling auto sales will have a less pronounced effect on auto insurance exposure growth than problems in the housing market will on home insurers 14 13 12 13.1 12.0 11 10.2 10 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09F 10F Source: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/09); Insurance Information Inst. Length of US Recessions, 1929-Present* Months in Duration 50 45 43 “We will rebuild. We will recover.” 40 35 --President Barack Obama addressing a joint session of Congress 30 25 Current recession began in Dec. 2007 and is already the longest since 1981. It is now also the longest recession since the Great Depression. February 24, 2009 20 16 13 15 11 8 10 10 8 10 18 16 11 6 8 8 Jul. 1990 Mar. 2001 5 0 Aug. 1929 May 1937 Feb. 1945 Nov. 1948 July 1953 Aug. 1957 Apr. 1960 Dec. 1969 Nov. 1973 * As of May 2009, inclusive Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; Insurance Information Institute. Jan. 1980 Jul. 1981 Dec. 2007 Length of U.S. Business Cycles, 1929-Present* Duration (Months) 120 110 100 Contraction Expansion Following Average Duration** Recession = 10.4 Months Expansion = 60.5 Months 90 106 Length of expansions greatly exceeds contractions 58 80 80 70 60 50 50 43 45 37 40 39 92 73 36 24 30 20 13 10 Month 0 Recession Started 120 Aug. 1929 May 1937 8 Feb. 1945 11 Nov. 1948 10 July 1953 8 Aug. 1957 10 Apr. 1960 11 Dec. 1969 16 12 16 6 Nov. 1973 * As of May 2009, inclusive; **Post-WW II period through end of most recent expansion. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; Insurance Information Institute. Jan. 1980 Jul. 1981 18 8 Jul. 1990 8 Mar. 2001 Dec. 2007 Inflation Trends Significant Moderation Should Help Reduce Severity Trends, but Reduces Merchandise Values Inflation Rates for Largest European Economies & Euro Area, 2007-2010F, (% change from prior yr.) 2008E 2009F 2010F 4.6% 5% Inflation is down sharply across Europe, reducing claim severity concerns 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% 2.8% 1.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1% 0.7% 1% 0.6% 2% 1.3% 1.5% 2% 0.4% 3% 2.1% 3% 2.3% 4% 2.3% 2.8% 3.3% 4% 3.7% 5% 1.3% 2007 0% Euro Area Germany UK Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 3/10/09 edition. France Netherlands Belgium Annual Inflation Rates (CPI-U, %), 1990-2010F Inflation peaked at 5.6% in August 2008 on high energy and commodity crisis. The recession and the collapse of the commodity bubble have produced temporary deflation. 6.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 3.8 4.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.0 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.3 3.8 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (0.7) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09F 10F Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, April 10, 2009 (forecasts). Baltic Dry Index: Shipping Costs of Goods Plunged as Trade Weakens The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs, plunged more than 90% after the collapse of the commodities bubble in late 2008 Sources: InvestmentTools.com accessed 11 May 2009. ECONOMIC THREATS TO MARINE INSURANCE MARKETS Caught in the Economic Storm Top Causes of Decline in Global Trade 1. GLOBAL RECESSION Global nature of recession and rapid spread throughout the world Downturn is deep and broad, sharply reducing imports/exports 2. GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS Finished products often contain component parts from many countries with ultimate buyers in still others Global supply chains act as a contagion mechanism that transmit and accelerate economic disturbances (positive and negative) 3. SHORTAGE OF TRADE FINANCING (TRADE CREDIT) • • Bursting of credit bubble has made obtaining trade credit difficult and expensive to obtain Renders some trade noneconomical 4. FUTURE CONCERN: PROTECTIONISM • Countries may erect or increase tariffs and quotas to protect domestict producers • This was a disastrous policy in 1930s • Ultimate reduces global trade flows and deepen global recession Source: World Trade Organization; Insurance Information Institute. Global Merchandise Exports, 1979-2009F ($ Trillions and Annual Growth Rate) 16 Merchandise Exports % Change 20% 14 15% 12 10% 10 5% 8 0% 6 -5% 4 2 25% Trade is expected to decline by its largest amount in decades in 2009 -15% 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 -10% Source: World Trade Organization; Insurance Information Institute. Growth Rate in Exports Merchandise Exports ($ Trillions) 18 Recessions routinely depress trade, but the current global financial crisis is much more severe Major Economic Trends Affecting Marine Insurance Markets All Major World Economies Except China Are in Recession Demand for Imported Products Has Plunged Globally Global Trade Expected to Shrink by 9% in 2009, the First Decline Since 1982 and the Largest Drop Since World War II • Trans-Pacific containerized trade was down 3.9% in 2008 with a 4.1% drop projected for 2009 Immense Amounts of Excess Shipping Capacity is Driving Down Shipping Prices • Baltic Dry Index of shipping prices fell 94% from record high 11,793 in May 2008 to 663 in December 2008 As Much as 11.3% of Global Shipping Fleet is Idle As Much as 45% of the New Containership Capacity Scheduled for Delivery in 2010 Will Be Delayed or Cancelled Concern that Rising Protectionist Sentiments Could Increase Tariffs, Quotas and Further Hurt Trade and Ultimately Deepen Global Recession Implications for Marine Insurance Markets Decline in Shipping Volume Due to Collapse in Trade is Reducing Exposure (Vessels and Cargo) Likely reducing claim frequency Premium Volume is Flat or Falling in Most Marine Segments Return of Major Catastrophic Losses (Hurricane Ike) Hurt Offshore Energy Segment Competition Remains Strong in Many Marine Segments, Potentially Hurting Underwriting Performance Global Economy Will Recover Slowly, Hurting Premium Investment Earnings Are Declining as Returns Suffer Global Interest Rates Have Dropped, Insurers Locking in Lower Returns for Years to Come If Major Economies Become Protectionist, Marine Insurers Will See Further Erosion of their Business Financial Collapse Means More/Different Regulation of Insurers Globally, Especially in US (Federal Regulation) Real GDP and Trade Growth: OECD Countries: 2007:Q1—2008:Q4 Global trade (imports and exports) fell sharply in late 2008 as major economies entered recessions. WTO estimates global trade will shrink 9% in 2009 Sources: World Trade Organization: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr554_e.pdf Growth in Volume of Merchandise Trade and GDP, 1998 – 2008 (Annual % Change) Merchandise trade volume is shrinking as major economies enter recession Sources: World Trade Organization: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr554_e.pdf Merchandise Trade Exports by Region, 2007 and 2008, (% change from prior yr.) 0% World US South/ EU Central America CIS 13.0% 7.0% 2.5% 8.5% 4.0% 3.0% 4.5% 3.0% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5% 6.0% 10% 7.0% 5.5% 15% 3.5% 20% 3.0% 1.5% Global merchandise trade growth fell by 2/3 in 2008 and will likely be negative in 2009 9.5% 25% 2008 19.5% 2007 Africa Middle China Japan East Sources: World Trade Organization: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr554_e.pdf India Monthly Merchandise Exports and Imports, Jan. 2006- Feb. 2009 ($ Bn) Exports ----- Exports ----- Imports------ Imports------ Exports ----- Exports ----- Imports------ Imports------ Sources: World Trade Organization: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr554_e.htm#appendix_chart1 Monthly Merchandise Exports and Imports, Jan. 2006- Feb. 2009 ($ Bn) Sources: World Trade Organization: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr554_e.htm#appendix_chart1 Monthly Merchandise Exports and Imports, Jan. 2006- Feb. 2009 ($ Bn) Sources: World Trade Organization: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres09_e/pr554_e.htm#appendix_chart1 THE $2.75 TRILLION GLOBAL ECONOMIC STIMULUS Stimulus Spending Will Have Only a Minor Impact on Trade Announced Economic Stimulus Packages Worldwide (US$ Bill)* $600 $500 $400 $300 Governments around the world are seeking to soften the economic blow through spending. Deficits as a share of GDP will mushroom leading to a potential inflationary threat and higher interest rates the future. P/C insurers will provide insurance necessary for stimulus projects and will benefit from enhanced economic growth U M .S. ex ic o C hi le $0 G er m a Fr n y an ce U .K Sp . ai n N I et ta he ly rl a H nd un s Po gar rt y u Sw gal ed e C n hi So J na u a N th pan ew K Ze ore al a a A nd us * tr al i In a di D a ub ai $100 $5.8 $2.0 $200 As of March 2009, these countries have approved or proposed at least US$2.3 trillion in stimulus spending $11.3 $28.0 $7.4 $13.7 $36.8 $700 $787 $586.1 $485.9 $800 U.S. stimulus comprises a mix of spending, tax relief and aid to states $130.4 $33.0 $40.8 $75.3 $8.0 $7.6 $6.9 $2.8 $1.8 $900 *As of March 2009. Sources: Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2009 with updates by I.I.I.; Institute of International Finance and Brookings Institute. FINANCIAL STRENGTH & RATINGS Industry Has Weathered the Storms Well US P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2007 Combined Ratio 115 Combined Ratio after Div P/C Impairment Frequency 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 110 1.2 1 105 0.8 100 95 0.4 2007 impairment rate was a record low 0.12%, one-seventh the 0.8% average since 1969; Previous record was 0.24% in 1972 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 90 0.6 Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute 0.2 0 Impairment Rate 120 Impairment rates are highly correlated underwriting performance and could reached a record low in 2007 Summary of A.M. Best’s P/C Insurer Ratings Actions in 2008* P/C insurance is by design a resilient in business. The dual threat of financial disasters and catastrophic losses are anticipated in the industry’s risk management strategy. Upgraded, 59 , 4.0% Downgraded, 55 , 3.8% Initial, 41 , 2.8% Under Review, 63 , 4.3% Other, 59 , 4.0% Despite financial market turmoil, high cat losses and a soft market in 2008, 81% of ratings actions by A.M. Best were affirmations; just 3.8% were downgrades and 4.0% upgrades Affirm, 1,183 , 81.0% *Through December 19. Source: A.M. Best. 34 Historical Ratings Distribution, US P/C Insurers, 2008 vs. 2005 and 2000 2008 Vulnerable* 7.9% A++/A+ and A/A- gains A++/A+ 10.8% Vulnerable* 12.1% 2000 2005 A++/A+ 9.2% C/CC++/C+ 0.6% 1.9% B/B6.9% D 0.2% E/F 2.3% A++/A+ 11.5% B++/B+ 21.3% B++/B+ 26.4% B++/B+ 28.3% A/A52.3% A/A60.0% A/A48.4% P/C insurer financial strength has improved since 2005 despite financial crisis Source: A.M. Best: Rating Downgrades Slowed but Outpaced Upgrades for Fourth Consecutive Year, Special Report, November 8, 2004 for 2000; 2006 and 2009 Review & Preview. *Ratings ‘B’ and lower. Investment Performance Investments are a Principal Source of Declining Profitability Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain:1994- 20081 $ Billions $64.0 $57.9 $60 $52.3 $51.9 $47.2 $50 $59.4 $56.9 $48.9 $36.0 $40 $35.4 $30 $45.3 $44.4 $42.8 $55.7 $31.4 Investment gains fell by 51% in 2008 due to lower yields, poor equity market conditions $20 $10 1Investment Q 3 08 : 07 06 05 * 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 $0 gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses. 2006 figure consists of $52.3B net investment income and $3.4B realized investment gain. *2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B. 37 Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. PIRACY An Ancient Scourge st Impacts 21 Century Marine Insurers Prime Locations for Piracy Attacks, 2008 Seven locations accounted for more than twothirds, or 216 of a total 293 reported piracy attacks in 2008 Tanzania, 14 Somalia, 19 Vietnam, 11 Bangladesh, 12 Nigeria, 40 Indonesia, 28 Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. Gulf of Aden, 92 Monthly Worldwide Piracy Attacks, Jan 2008 - Mar 2009 45 40 35 Attacks reached a new record in March 2009 with 41 attacks, after peaking in September 2008 with 39 attacks. November 08 (37) and January 09 (36) 39 were also busy months. 30 41 37 36 30 30 24 25 20 15 20 19 14 20 25 24 20 16 10 5 0 Jan - Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) First Quarter 2009 and 2008 annual reports. Total Piracy Incidents Worldwide By Region, 2008 200 A total of 293 incidents of piracy and robbery against ships were reported in 2008 – an increase of more than 11 percent on 263 incidents in 2007 – due to the unprecedented number of attacks in the Gulf of Aden. 189 180 160 140 120 100 80 55 60 40 14 20 23 10 2 0 Africa America Far East Indian Sub Continent Rest of the World Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. S E Asia Countries Where Five or More Incidents Have Occurred, 2008 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 92 40 In Jan-Mar 2009, a total of 61 attacks were reported for Somalia and the Gulf of Aden, continuing 2008’s trend. Out of the 61 attacks, nine vessels were hijacked and 157 crew members taken hostage. 28 19 5 7 14 6 Pe ru Ph ili Si pp ng in ap es or e St ra its So m al ia Ta nz an ia Vi et na m ia In d A of ul f In d de n a ha n G 10 on es ia M al ay si a N ig er ia 10 7 G sh 12 la de an g B A total of 111 incidents were reported for Somalia and the Gulf of Aden in 2008, up nearly 200 percent on 2007. A total of 42 vessels were hijacked by Somali pirates and 815 crew taken hostage. Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) First Quarter 2009 and 2008 annual reports. 11 Piracy Attacks By Vessel Type, 2008 Container Bulk Carrier Chemical Tanker General Cargo Tanker TUG Product Tanker Fishing Vessel Yacht Refrigerated Cargo LPG Tanker Supply Ship Passenger Ship Vehicle Carrier FPSO Cement Carrier Research Vessel DHOW Offshore Support Heavy Load Carrier NA Ro-Ro Crew Boat Barge Carrier Lift Barge Livestock Carrier 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6 5 9 9 8 10 16 16 30 39 38 49 48 All types of vessels – from cargo ships to passenger ships and fishing vessels – have been attacked. 20 30 Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. 40 50 60 Flag States of Vessels Attacked 10 Times or More, 2008 Panama 52 25 Singapore Liberia 19 Marshall Islands 15 Antigua and Barbuda 14 Cyprus 14 Hong Kong 14 12 Bahamas Malta 10 Malaysia 10 0 10 20 The flag of registry subject to the highest number of attacks in 2008 was Panama, followed by Singapore and Liberia. 30 Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. 40 50 60 Managing Country of Ships Attacked 10 Times or More, 2008 Germany 41 Singapore 31 Greece The managing country of ships subject to the highest number of attacks in 2008 was Germany, followed by Singapore and Greece. 23 Japan 16 Norway 12 U.K. 12 China 12 11 Malaysia 10 Hong Kong 0 10 20 30 40 Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. 50 60 Total Piracy Incidents Worldwide 2003 - Q1:2009 450 445 400 329 350 A total of 293 incidents of piracy and robbery against ships were reported in 2008 – up 23 percent since 2006 – the second consecutive year of increases. 293 276 300 239 250 263 200 Attacks in the first quarter of 2009 have almost doubled from 53 in Q1 2008 to 102 in Q1 2009 – due almost entirely to increased Somali pirate activity off the Gulf of Aden. 150 100 50 102 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1* Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) First Quarter 2009 and 2008 annual reports. Types of Arms Used During Attacks, 2008 Not stated, 80, Pirates boarding 27% vessels are better armed and prepared to assault and injure Knives, 68, crew. Total 23% incidents in which guns were used rose 93 percent 2007-2008. Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. Other weapons, 6, 2% Guns, 139, 48% Types of Violence to Crew, 2008 Kidnap/Ransom, 42, 4% Crew threatened, 9, 1% Crew assaulted, 7, 1% Crew injured, 32, 3% Crew killed, 11, 1% Missing, 21, 2% Taken hostage, 889, 88% Worldwide in 2008 a total of 49 vessels were hijacked, 889 crew taken hostage and a further 46 vessels fired upon – surpassing all previous records. Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. Total Maritime Hostage Incidents Worldwide, 2003-2008 900 800 700 600 Worldwide a total of 889 crew were taken hostage in 2008, an increase of 200 percent over 2007! In the first three months of 2009, 178 crew were already taken hostage. 500 400 889 440 359 292 300 188 148 200 178 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) 2008 annual report. 2008 Q1 2009 Insurance Information Institute On-Line THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND YOUR ATTENTION! 50