Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Future Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and
Emerging Infectious Diseases in Asia-Pacific
Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput,
Greg Tegart, and Chatri Sripaipan
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
nares@nstda.or.th
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Introduction
Biosecurity and Infectious Diseases
• Biosecurity is the policies and measures taken to protect from biological
harm. It encompasses the prevention and mitigation from diseases in human
and animals, and bioterrorism that impacts the economy, environment, and
public health.
• More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of
information generation and collection, information management, information
analysis, and use of analysis.
• One major threat to biosecurity is the outbreak of infectious diseases.
Infectious diseases account for a quarter of all human mortality but
developing countries have a disproportionate share because of poverty,
limited access to health care, drug resistance and changing food supplies
due to impact climate change on land and water supplies.
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Introduction
Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID)
• Emerging and re-emerging infections are increasing in the Pacific Rim.
These include both diseases that are new (e.g. SARS, Avian Influenza) and
diseases that are old but re–emerging as health threats (e.g. Tuberculosis).
They are important to our APEC community because:
– They cause preventable illness and death
– They drain our economies through the direct costs of treatment and
hospitalization
– They generate indirect costs from time lost from work and reduced purchasing
power
– They lead to unfounded trade sanctions that hinder economic activity
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Introduction
1: Examples of Converging Technologies
Figure
Converging
Technologies
BioInformatics
(e.g., Genomic Analysis,
Biomedical Imaging)
Bio
Info
Nanobiosystem
(e.g., nanostructured drugs)
Nano
Nano-Informatics
(e.g., NEMS, Nanoelectronics)
Bio-Info-Nano
Converging Tech.
(e.g., NEMS based Biochip)
Source: Suthee Phucharoenchanachai, NECTEC (2005)
APEC Center for Technology Foresight (www.apecforesight.org) © 2006
8
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Methodology
Conduct of the Project: Overview
Ph
as
e
II
Ph
as
eI
Final Symposium
Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region’s
capacities that contribute to the successful prevention and
management of EID
Roadmapping II
Aim to develop roadmaps of technology applications that have
high impact to combat EID.
Roadmapping I
Aim to develop roadmaps of technology research domain and
identify key technology applications to combat EID.
Scenario Planning
Aim to exchange experts’ views about the severity of infectious
diseases and the key research domains
Online Survey
Aim to get experts involved in verifying the trends of emerging
infectious diseases resulted from bibliometric analysis
Literature Review +
Bibliometric Analysis
Aim to capture the trends of emerging infectious diseases from
the publication trends
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Methodology
Scenarios
•Scenarios were used in attempts to develop internally consistent stories
about possible futures where emerging infectious diseases becomes threat in
the Asia-Pacific region over the next 10 years and beyond.
•Thirty three experts from seven Asia-Pacific economies met in Thailand in
February 2007 to develop the scenarios. Key drivers and uncertainties of
future change relevant to the study were identified. By working back
(backcasting) from these pictures of the future, critical turning points were
identified.
•The scenarios:
–“Malaria in Miami 2017”
–“20,000 People Now Confirmed Dead from Mystery Disease”
–“Mysterious Death”
–“Emerging Rainforest Syndrome (RFS)”
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Methodology
Technology Roadmapping
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Results and policy impact/implications
Scenarios and EID Life Cycle Model
Source: Adapted from Dr. Silberglitt, Rand Corporation
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Results and policy impact/implications
The Technology Roadmap
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Results and policy impact/implications
Policy Implications
• Formal announcement of the project conclusion has not yet taken place (a
full report is under preparation), hence no policy commitment at this stage.
Nevertheless, there are already a number of the activities related to the
foresight project initiated during the conduct of the project that also raised
the awareness in biosecurity throughout the region.
– A decision model was proposed to identify and evaluate an optimum mix of
interventions and measures for a specific disease as improvements in health
infrastructure, which can concurrently benefit more than just a single disease.
(Proposing Institution: Rand Corporation, USA)
– A new network system based on a fully scientific base, and this should be
established as a research and diagnosis center of infectious diseases among
APEC economies was suggested. (Proposing Institution: RIKEN, Japan)
– A project on developing policy recommendations of EID surveillance system for
the Thai government was informed by the result of the project. (Proposing
Institution: National Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand)
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
This project has created a new network of knowledgeable and concerned
scientist and technologists in the field of biosecurity in the APEC region.
The translation of research outputs into policy is of critical importance.
Particularly in the APEC region, security and emerging infectious diseases
is given high priority as evident in the APEC Leaders Declaration.
However, the application of these new technologies in developing
economies needs to be undertaken with great care, recognizing that there
are major infrastructural, cultural and social differences.
The “people factors” are crucial features of disease management through
all phases of the life cycle model from detection to response.
This project is a contribution to the better understanding of the provision of
accelerated technological responses to combating EID and biosecurity in
the APEC region and of the role of science and technology in providing
those responses through the concept of converging technologies.
Technology Analysis for Biosecurity and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Acknowledgments
Special thanks to:
• Dr. Yoshiko Okamoto of Japan’s RIKEN and Dr. Stephen Prowse who
contributed in the Diagnostic Technology Roadmap.
• Mr. Jack Smith of Defence R&D Canada and Dr. Richard Silberglitt of the
Rand Corporation who have in particular given ideas and suggestions
throughout the project.
• This project is funded by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
and the National Science and Technology Development Agency,
Ministry of Science and Technology, Royal Thai government.