a case study of Thailand

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Politics and practice in power sector planning and reform: a case study of Thailand

Chuenchom Sangarasri Greacen

Chris Greacen

11 April 2012

Class IPOL 8548A:Interdisciplinary analysis for energy policy

Monterey Institute of International Studies

Thailand in context

• Constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary system (similar to

England)

• Size: about 4/5 of California

• Population: 66 million (2x that of

CA)

• GDP

(PPP)

: $553 billion (1/3 of CA’s)

• GDP per capita: $8,500 (1/6 of

CA’s)

• Energy consumption: 57 million

BTU (1/4 of CA’s)

• Peak power demand: 23 GW (<half of CA’s)

• 99.8% of villages are electrified

 













ELECTRICITY GENERATING AUTHORITY OF THAILAND

ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM OF THAILAND

SYSTEM PLANNING DIVISION

TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING DEPARTMENT

ISSUED DATE : JANUARY 2007

DWG. NO. EPS 2002

Brief history of Thai power sector

• 1960s: decentralized coops in close competition with centralized utilities as the model to electrify

Thailand.

• Centralized model chosen not by technical superiority but rather by Cold War politics

• 1960s-90s: rapid expansion of power system by state-owned utilities

• World Bank and aid agencies had major roles

• 1990s: neoliberal reforms

• Partial divestiture of EGAT’s generation assets (EGCO, RATCH)

• Small and Independent Power Producers (SPPs/IPPs)

• Role of private foreign capital

Brief history of Thai power sector (2)

• 2000s-present:

• Plan to create Power Pool abandoned

• Attempt to partially privatize (equitize) monopoly EGAT in the stock market thwarted by civil society’s lawsuit

• But increasing financialization of electricity in the stock market continued via EGAT’s subsidiaries, other Thai energy companies and their joint ventures with foreign capital

• Increasing roles of Thai listed non-energy companies (e.g. construction) in power project investment

• Mushrooming power projects, domestic & trans-boundary

ISSUES AND TRENDS IN POWER SECTOR

PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT

Planned new investments are so excessive despite exaggerated “needs”

Used to justify NT2

5,800 MW

The year NT2 came online

Over-investment = unnecessary impacts, burden on consumers and economy

Thai power sector suffered from

“over-capacity worth 400 billion

Baht” ( from total assets of 700 billion

Baht and annual turnover of 240 billion Baht)

– PM Thaksin Shinwatra, 2004

Wasteful inefficiency

changing energy intensity over 20-yr period

Data source: Energy Information Administration 2008

Pak Mun Dam Story

• A World Bank funded project completed in 1994

• Run-of-river 126 MW hydroelectric dam on a main tributary of Mekong

River

• Source of on-going conflicts due to impacts on fish migration and livelihood of people

Photo: http

://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pak_Mun_dam

Extreme inequality

Structural violence in the name of “energy security”

Electricity production and consumption

(GWh)

Impacts of Pak

Mun Dam alone

Siam Paragon

123

1700 families relocated

MBK

81

Loss of livelihood for >6200 families

Loss of 116 fish species (44%)

Fishery yield down 80%

Central World

75

Hon g

Son

65

Dams Malls Province

Relentless consumption of energy in

Thailand leads to imports and exploitation of energy resources in neighboring countries

Nam Theun

2

• 1000 MW

• Mainly to serve Thailand

• 6,200 people in Laos resettled

• Dam will dry Nam Theun River and swell Xe Bung Fai River

• Endangered species, elephant habitat to be flooded

Investment disconnected actual need for electricity

• Criteria for determining generation requirement:

• Reserve margin

(capacity in excess of peak demand)

≥ 15%

• Yet Thailand’s PDP2010 adds generation:

• 920 MW Nam Theun 2 when reserve margin > 28%

• 597 MW Nam Ngum 2 when reserve margin > 27%

• 660 MW Gheco1 when reserve margin > 27%

• 1600 MW SiamEnergy when reserve margin > 25%

• and many more….

Changing role of electricity

• Electricity as public service  profitable commodity

• Commons like rivers  trans-boundary commodities

Changing role of policy makers:

Serving public or corporations?

Performance of high-level energy officials in serving the government vs. PTT Plc.

(Thai gas/oil utility, the largest list company in Thailand)

Permanent

Secretary

Attendance of PTT board meetings*

13/13

100%

Attendance of

Automatic Tariff (Ft) mechanism mtgs**

4/6

67%

Director of

EPPO

8/9

90%

5/6

* จากรายงานประจ าปีบมจ . ปตท . ปี 2546

** ตั้งแต่มีการปรับองค ์ประกอบคณะอนุกรรมการ Ft โดยแต่งตั้งให้นายเชิดพงษ์เป็นประธาน และนายเมตตาเป็นรองประธาน

( ปลายปี 46)

83%

Hybrid identity, conflict of interest

Source: www.ratch.co.th

Power projects and policies driven by companies

• Power Development Plan (PDP) used to be the master plan for capacity expansion

• Determines how many of which kind of plants get built when

• But now some projects were on “fast track” even before being listed in the PDP, e.g.

• 1,260 MW Xayaburi dam

• 4,000 MW coal-fired plants in Dawei

Energy policy and plans become tools to drive the stock market and churn profits

• The coup-installed government announced its policy on energy investment opportunities on 3 Oct 2006

• Energy policy, PDP approval and IPP bidding resulted in significant windfall benefits for selected companies

• 1 year later, the share prices of companies benefiting from the PDP jumped 66% (other companies had a 8.7% rise)

E i

E r o l

E g P e t

E g T r l t

E g P T r l t d

E g o P T

N n y E

o 6 k C .

M h

7 .

3 ,

, , 0

, , 7

, , 2

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2 2

, , 5

* T -re te " = T a g o th 2 a s (v tin rig

o 7 k C .

M h

S r a n e n e

8 .

6 , 5

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, , 3

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, , 9

2 1

, , 0

2

8

%

5 %

6 %

6 %

6 %

3 %

%

th c a y

TIME TO RETHINK

“ENERGY SECURITY” &

POWER SECTOR PLANNING

What is “energy security”?

A. The more, the better

B. Resource adequacy (availability)

C. Resource adequacy & affordability.

D. Resource adequacy & affordability & efficiency

E. Resource adequacy & affordability & efficiency & environmental quality

Source: Brown, Marilyn A., 2011

What is “energy security”?

A. The more, the better

B. Resource adequacy

C. Resource adequacy & affordability.

D. Resource adequacy & affordability & efficiency

E. Resource adequacy & affordability & efficiency & environmental quality

Government Policy Framework

according to Energy Industry Act 2007

Energy Industry Act 2007 Indicators 4 dimensions of energy security

Availability

Affordability

Efficiency

Environment

- Resource Adequacy

- Min. dependency on imports

- Diversification

- Affordable cost of service

- Min. exposure to price volatility

- Energy & economic efficiency

- Min. environmental impacts

- Reserve margin ≥15%

- % energy imports

-Shares of fuels

- Electricity cost (B/mo.)

- % exposure to oil price

- Energy intensity

(GWh/GDP)

- GHG emissions

- SO2 emissions

Need to make “energy security” and PDP accountable to government policy framework

Framework for evaluating PDPs

MAKING NEW & IMPROVED

POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANS

PDP 2010

70 000

60 000

50 000

40 000

30 000 nuclear

EE/DSM

Others

Oil/gas

RE DEDE

Cogen

Hydro imports

Hydro

Gas

Coal

20 000

10 000

0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

New generation includes:

11,669 MW of imports

8,400 MW of coal plants

16,670 MW of gas plants

5,000 MW of nuclear

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Past actual averages:

830 MW/yr (25 yrs)

813 MW/yr (15 yrs)

772 MW/yr (10 yrs)

407 MW/yr ( 5 yrs)

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual

Avg forecast increase

830 MW/yr in PDP2012

Forecast

Methodology and assumptions

– Revise demand forecast to reflect uncertainties

– Adhere to Government Policy of 15% minimum reserve margin

– Prioritize investment in energy efficiency (EE)/ demandside management (DSM) as a resource option

– Consider life extension (delayed retirement) of power plants as a resource option

• Additional investment might be required but only done in cases that are economic compared to building a new power plant.

– When additional capacity is needed, prioritize (highefficiency) cogeneration over (inefficient) centralized generation

– New generation not already under construction may be removed if not needed to maintain 15% reserve margin

Past demand forecasts compared to actual peak demand (MW)

500

0

-500

2000

Actual average increase in electricity demand

1500

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

1000

Avg forecast increase

830 MW/yr in PDP2012

Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual

25 year average:

830 MW/yr

Avg forecast increase

830 MW/yr in PDP2012

Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual

15 year average:

813 MW/yr

Avg forecast increase

830 MW/yr in PDP2012

Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual

10 year average:

772 MW/yr

Avg forecast increase

830 MW/yr in PDP2012

Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual

5 year average:

Avg forecast increase

830

407 MW/yr

Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual

Avg forecast increase

830 MW/yr in PDP2012

Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Past actual averages:

830 MW/yr (25 yrs)

813 MW/yr (15 yrs)

772 MW/yr (10 yrs)

407 MW/yr ( 5 yrs)

Actual

Assumed in

PDP 2010 forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Past actual averages:

830 MW/yr (25 yrs)

813 MW/yr (15 yrs)

772 MW/yr (10 yrs)

407 MW/yr ( 5 yrs)

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual Forecast

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Past actual averages:

830 MW/yr (25 yrs)

813 MW/yr (15 yrs)

772 MW/yr (10 yrs)

407 MW/yr ( 5 yrs)

Avg forecast increase

1,491 MW/yr in PDP 2010

Actual Forecast

Comparison of peak demand forecasts used in PDP 2010 vs. PDP 2012

PDP 2010 PDP 2012

Year

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Peak demand

Peak Annual increase

MW

24,568

25,913

27,188

28,341

29,463

30,754

32,225

33,688

34,988

36,336

37,856

39,308

40,781

42,236

43,962

45,621

47,344

49,039

Energy

GWh

MW %

1,319 5.67% 160,331

1,345 5.47% 168,049

1,275 4.92% 175,631

1,153 4.24% 183,452

1,122 3.96% 191,224

1,291 4.38% 200,012

1,471 4.78% 209,329

1,463 4.54% 218,820

1,300 3.86% 227,599

1,348 3.85% 236,956

1,520 4.18% 246,730

1,452 3.84% 256,483

1,473 3.75% 266,488

1,455 3.57% 276,805

1,726 4.09% 287,589

1,659 3.77% 298,779

1,723 3.78% 310,387

1,695 3.58% 322,427

Peak

Peak demand

Annual increase

MW

23,900

24,731

25,562

26,393

27,225

28,056

28,887

29,718

30,549

31,380

32,211

33,043

33,874

34,705

35,536

36,367

37,198

38,029

MW %

-110 -0.46%

831 3.48%

831 3.36%

831 3.25%

831 3.15%

831 3.05%

831 2.96%

831 2.88%

831 2.80%

831 2.72%

831 2.65%

831 2.58%

831 2.52%

831 2.45%

831 2.39%

831 2.34%

831 2.29%

831 2.23%

2029 50,959 1,920 3.92% 334,921 38,861 831 2.19%

2030 52,890 1,931 3.79% 347,947

*The figures in pink highlight are actual values, not forecast.

39,692 831 2.14%

Data source (PDP2010): EPPO, 2010, http://www.eppo.go.th/power/pdp/page-7.html

Energy

GWh

155,972

160,385

165,129

170,845

176,696

182,463

187,645

193,033

198,724

204,639

209,941

215,601

221,352

227,448

232,468

238,174

243,872

250,040

255,406

261,120

Load factor

%

74.50%

74.03%

73.74%

73.89%

74.09%

74.24%

74.15%

74.15%

74.26%

74.44%

74.40%

74.49%

74.60%

74.81%

74.68%

74.76%

74.84%

75.06%

75.03%

75.10%

New & improved PDPs

• New PDP based on more realistic demand forecast = “ PDP2012 ”

• Improved PDP based on PDP2010 forecast =

“ PDP2010v2 ”

Methodology

– Maintain 15% minimum reserve margin

– Prioritize investment in energy efficiency (EE)/ demandside management (DSM) as a resource option

– Consider life extension (delayed retirement) of power plants as a resource option

• Additional investment might be required but only done in cases that are economic compared to building a new power plant.

– When additional capacity is needed, prioritize (highefficiency) cogeneration over (inefficient) centralized generation

– New generation not already under construction may be removed if not needed to maintain 15% reserve margin

DSM saving potential is under utilized in Thailand

35,000

30,000

Pacific Northwest

USA

DSM/EE measures led to savings of over 30,000 GWH/yr

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

BPA and Utility Programs NEEA Programs State Codes Federal Standards

ที่มา : Tom Eckman, Northwest Power and

Conservation Council, 2009.

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

PDP 2010 (Thailand)

10000

5000

0.3% saving in 20 yrs

0

2553 2555 2557 2559 2561 2563 2565 2567 2569 2571 2573

ที่มา : สไลด์แผ่นที่ 19, สมมติฐานและภาพรวมร่าง

แผน PDP 2010 , 17 กุมภาพันธ์ 2553.

http://www.eppo.go.th/power/pdp/seminar-

17feb2553/assumptions-PDP2010.pdf

DSM/EE are the cheapest options to meet growing demand (but not yet considered an option in Thailand)

12

10

8

6

4

Cost comparison for different supply options in Pacific Northwest, USA.

EE

Renewables

Coal

Gas turbines

Combined cycle

2

0

245 514 1598 2202 2560 3444 4934

Cumulative Resource Potential (Average Megawatts)

6735

Resource potential for generic coal, gas & wind resources shown for typical unit size.

Additional potential is available at comparable costs.

Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council

8945

Government's energy saving target

The government approved the 20-year Energy Efficiency Plan in April 2011 which called for almost 70,000 GWh of annual electricity savings or 20% of total load by

2030.

(Source: (Ministry of Energy 2011) and (Foongthammasan, Tippichai et al. 2011)

Source: The 5 th NW Electric Power and ConservationPlan

Supply options in NW USA

Source: The 5 th NW Electric Power and ConservationPlan

Supply options in NW USA

Insulate roofs to keep cool in

T-5

10500

9000

7500

6000

4500

3000

1500

0

2010

EE/DSM cumulative savings in

PDP2012 and PDP2010v2

EE/DSM cumulative savings in PDP2012 or PDP2010v2 (MW)

EE savings (PDP2010)

Additional EE savings consistent with the government's 20-yr EE

Plan (PDP2012)

2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

Cogeneration (Combined Heat and Power – CHP)

Cogeneration in PDP 2012

Application

Existing signed PPAs

Approved but not yet signed PPA

New cooling CHP projects under 10 MW each -- identified in (Menke et al., 2006)

New VSPP in ceramics, paper, pellet and other industries

0.9% per year growth in opportunities over next 18 years

Total

MW

3790

2835

3500

(not counted)

1700

11825

Program

SPP

SPP

VSPP

VSPP

SPP+VSPP

PDP2012 adds 4,800 MW of cogeneration beyond what was already in the plan

EGAT

Plant life extension (1)

Power plants to be decommissioned in PDP2010

MW

Plant life at decommissioni ng

Extended life to delay decommissioning and construction of new plants*

Nam Pong CC #1 ้ ้

Nam Pong CC #2 ้

Bang Pakong TH #1-2

Bang Pakong TH #3

Bang Pakong TH #4

Bang Pakong CC # 3

Bang Pakong CC # 4

South Bangkok CC #1

South Bangkok CC #2

Mae Moh TH # 4

Mae Moh TH # 5-6

Mae Moh TH #7

Mae Moh TH # 8

Mae Moh TH #9

Wang Noi TH #1-3

316

562

140

280

140

270

270

1,910

325

325

1,052

576

576

314

314

40

40

40

25

25

25

40

40

30

30

25

25

25

25

30

30

30

30

30

30

* Plant life extension may require additional investments and time to maintain and upgrade equipment. The time and resources required to extend plant life are usually significantly less than building a new one. However, more detailed assessment should be done on a case by case basis to ensure technical and economic feasibility of plant life extension.

Plant life extension (2)

Power plants to be decommissioned in PDP2010

MW

Plant life at decommissionin g

Extended life to delay decommissioning and construction of new plants*

IPPs

Khanom TH #1

Khanom TH #2

Khanom CC #1

Eastern Power

Glow IPP

Independent Power (Thailand)

(IPT)

Tri Energy Co., Ltd

Hauay Ho

Theun Hinboun

Rayong CC #1-4

Ratchaburi TH #1-2

Ratchaburi CC #1-2

Ratchabuti CC # 3

70

70

678

350

713

700

700

126

214

1,175

1,440

1,360

681

15

20

20

20

25

25

20

30

25

20

25

25

25

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

* Plant life extension may require additional investments and time to maintain and upgrade equipment. The time and resources required to extend plant life are usually significantly less than building a new one. However, more detailed assessment should be done on a case by case basis to ensure technical and economic feasibility of plant life extension.

$

Thai VSPP feed-in tariff adders

Fuel Adder Additional for diesel offsetting 3 southern areas

Additional for provinces

Biomass

Capacity <= 1 MW

Capacity > 1 MW

Biogas

$ 0.015

$ 0.009

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

<= 1 MW

> 1 MW

$ 0.015

$ 0.009

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

Waste (community waste, non-hazardous industrial and not organic matter)

Years effective

7

7

7

7

Fermentation

Thermal process

Wind

<= 50 kW

> 50 kW

Micro-hydro

50 kW - <200 kW

<50 kW

Solar

$ 0.074 $ 0.030

$ 0.104 $ 0.030

$ 0.134 $ 0.045

$ 0.104 $ 0.045

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

$ 0.045

$ 0.045

7

7

10

10

$ 0.024 $ 0.030

$ 0.045 $ 0.030

$ 0.238 $ 0.045

$ 0.030

$ 0.030

$ 0.045

7

7

10

Assumes exchange rate 1 Thai baht = 0.029762 U.S. dollars

Tariff = adder(s) + bulk supply tariff + FT charge

Micro hydropower

•40 kW

•Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai,

Thailand

Biogas from

Pig Farms

Reduces air and water pollution

Produces fertilizer

Produces electricity

8 x 70 kW generator

Ratchaburi

Biogas from Pig

Farms

Korat Waste to Energy – biogas

… an early Thai VSPP project

• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane

• Produces gas for all factory heat (30

MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity

• 3 x 1 MW gas generators

Rice husk-fired power plant

• 9.8 MW

• Roi Et, Thailand

Bangkok Solar 1 MW PV

• Signed PPAs for 767 MW of PV (SPP + VSPP)

Lopburi 73 MW PV (over 1,000 rai = 160 hectares)

• Project size: 1 MW

• Uses self-manufactured a-Si

• Signed PPAs for 767 MW of PV (SPP + VSPP)

Solar thermal electricity

• 5 MW, 135 MW planned

• 900 Million baht (180 baht/watt = US$6/watt) but costs expected to decrease 20 to 30% to 135 baht/watt

• Commissioned in Kanchanburi on Nov 2011

• Signed PPAs for 1343 MW of solar thermal

VSPP project pipeline as recorded in

EPPO data

Applicati on under considera tion

Permissio n received,

PPA signed awaiting

PPA

Leakage (Project abandoned)

Generating

& selling electricity

Feb 2007

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Application pending

Received permission, awaiting PPA

PPA signed

Generating electricity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Garbage

Biogas

Coal cogen

Natural gas cogen

Microhydro

18 MW online

Thailand VSPP Status

June 2008

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Application pending

Received permission, awaiting PPA

PPA signed

Generating electricity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Garbage

Biogas

Coal cogen

Natural gas cogen

Microhydro

Thailand VSPP Status

June 2009

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Application pending

Received permission, awaiting PPA

PPA signed

Generating electricity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Garbage

Biogas

Coal cogen

Natural gas cogen

Microhydro

Thailand VSPP Status

Mar 2010

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Application pending

Received permission, awaiting PPA

PPA signed

Generating electricity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Garbage

Biogas

Coal cogen

Natural gas cogen

Microhydro

Thailand VSPP Status

Sep 2011

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Application pending

Received permission, awaiting PPA

PPA signed

Generating electricity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Garbage

Biogas

Coal cogen

Natural gas cogen

Microhydro

1056 MW online

(58-fold increase since 2007)

PPAs signed for additional

4318 MW

60

40

20

0

100

80

Solar trends in Thailand

MW Solar installed in Thailand Feb 2007 – Dec 2011

160

140

120

PPAs for photovoltaic (PV) solar: 677 MW

PPAs for concentrating solar thermal (CST): 1343 MW

Summary of different PDPs

Generation by fuel type

Coal

2010

MW %

3,527 11%

PDP 2010

2030

MW %

12,669 19%

PDP 2010 v. 2

2030

MW

6,269

%

13%

PDP 2012

2030

MW

3,087

%

9%

Gas 16,091 51% 21,668 33%

Hydro – EGAT 3,424 11%

Hydro

– imports

1,260 4%

3,936

9,827

6%

15%

Cogeneration

Renewables

Oil/gas

Nuclear

Others (fuel oil, diesel, Malay)

1,878

767

6%

2%

3,784 12%

0

619

0%

2%

7,024

4,804

0

5,000

619

11%

7%

0%

8%

1%

15,972

3,936

3,827

11,824

4,804

0

0

34%

8%

8%

0%

0%

9,572

3,936

1,737

0

0

27%

11%

5%

25% 11,824 33%

10% 4,804 14%

0%

0%

619 1% 619 2%

Total generation 31,350 100% 65,547 100% 47,251 100% 35,579 100%

Additional EE/DSM savings 13,160 9,923

Total Resources 31,350 65,547 60,411 45,502

PDP2012

Comparing PDPs

PDP2010v2

70 000

PDP 2010

70 000

60 000

50 000

40 000

60 000

50 000

40 000

30 000 30 000

20 000

10 000

20 000

10 000

0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 nuclear

EE/DS

M

Others

Oil/gas

RE

DEDE

Cogen

Hydro imports

Hydro

Gas

Coal

Dependency on electricity/fuel imports

GWH

250 000

200 000

150 000

100 000

50 000

Uranium

(Kazakhstan/Australia)

Power imports

(Laos/Burma/Malay)

Diesel

Fuel Oil

Gas imports

(Burma/Middle East)

Coal imports

(Indonesia/Australia)

0

2010 PDP2010 PDP2010v2 PDP2012

Cost of service (Baht/month)

change in 2030 compared to 2010

Cost of service (Baht/month)

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2010 PDP2010 PDP2010v2 PDP2012

-10%

-12%

-14%

-16%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

6%

4%

2%

3,5%

1,3%

PDP2010 PDP2010v2 PDP2012

-13,2%

Exposure to price volatility risks

change in 2030 compared to 2010

0,00%

-5,00%

-10,00%

-15,00%

-20,00%

-25,00%

-30,00%

-35,00%

PDP2010

-29,65%

PDP2010v2

-20,81%

PDP2012

-18,87%

Energy intensity

change in 2030 compared to 2010

10,0%

5,0%

0,0%

-5,0%

-10,0%

-15,0%

-20,0%

Energy intensity (GWh/GDP billion Baht)

4,1%

PDP2010 PDP2012v2

-16,7%

PDP2012

-16,7%

Emissions of air pollutants

change in 2030 compared to 2010

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

450%

400%

350%

300%

GHG Nox SO2 TSP Hg

PDP2010

PDP2010v2

PDP2012

Comparing PDPs against different elements of energy security

change in 2030 compared to 2010

PDP2010v2

PDP2010

56%

52%

42%

-17%

-13%

-21%

-15%

4%

PDP2012

18%

1%

-17% -19%

-97%

-97%

Concluding remarks

• Worrying trend of commoditizing electricity

• “Energy security” and PDP process distorted to generate profits for a few at the expense of

– Affected communities - Environment

– Consumers - Economy

• Need framework to hold “energy security” and PDP accountable to Energy Industry Act & the public

• Need to reform PDP process to prioritize cheaper, cleaner options to meeting demand

• Proposed PDP2012 better achieves energy security without the need for new green-field centralized coal/ gas/dam/nuclear.

Thank you

www.palangthai.org

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