Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow – October-November 2008 Telecommunications Ecosystems A peek into the future of - Technology - Market - Business roberto.saracco@telecomitalia.it Telecommunications Ecosystems Evolution: Bio vs Tech&Mkt Ecosystems From Convergence to Variety My View of Communications in 2015 The Innovation Game Bacteria… Energy Innovation: for how long? The Pace of Innovation Thresholds and the rules of the Game Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem Tech Ambient Market n(k) Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 k 13 15 17 19 21 Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem Evolution Random + Selection Env.Share + variations Success Creativity + Market Market share + release Dynamic Equilibrium Internal Competition Dynamic Equilibrium New Configurations External Competition New Value Chains Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem Speciation Food Chains Discontinuity Displacement Cross Feedback Value Chains Local Optimum No Return thresholds Production Process Advantage of the small Energy Consumption Economic Efficiency From Convergence to Variety 2020 2010 1 TB SSD 200 TB Burst vs Streaming Bit/Vid Torrent Down vs Up Distribution Chain 50 ns Sticker Energy Control 10s TB From Convergence to Variety 2010 Gbps Interc. F. 2020 100s’Gbps Interc. F. Processing 0.2% 0.001% 1c GFlop anywhere Low power cons/diss Ultra capacity “fibred appliances” Commodity Real time rendering Ambient awareness 100 TFlop 100s PFlop 2Tbps Interc. fabric 100 Qbit 28 Qbit From Convergence to Variety 2020 2010 2010 ? Smart M. Int N ? WISP Mining FUTURE CENTRE A peek into tomorrow’s ecosystems Telecommunications 2015-A technology view COMMUNICATIONS will BE: Enabled by a varieties of infrastructures Smaller and smaller cells for wireless drops HWN Fiber core extending to the very edges Data center rather than Switching center based Burst rather than streaming (but for voice) 100 times todays traffic Telecommunications 2015-A technology view Edge Technology: Make-Believe Interfaces - 4k video (human resolution) - tactile sensation (silk, rough, wet…) Unlimited local storage (TB handheld) Flexible, programmable sensors Context awareness Metadata Supercrunchers – statistical analyses Telecommunications 2015-A user view COMMUNICATIONS will BE: Visual Personalised Contextualised No distinction between People, Information, Services Seamless fabric joining reality and Web Fading away of the Telephone Number Involving a variety of loosely coupled Actors Telecommunications 2015-A Business view COMMUNICATIONS will BE: Physical connectivity as utility both few bigs and a multitude of small. Basically no space in between Different biz models for Bigs and Small Flat rate on connectivity, both for w and wless Growing importance of top $ versus bottom $ Added connectivity value among apps Metadata as significant revenue stream My view of Communications in 2015 My view of Communications in 2015 My view of Communications in 2015 My view of Communications in 2015 My view of Communications in 2015 The vineyard Wine tasting Buy! Your diet Wine History From Atoms to Bits PERCEPTION Technologies Sensors/Awar Optical Tags Bar Codes/Sem DNA Markers Image Localiz RFID Print Elect OBJECTS Detection Systems Network Mirror Cars Hand readers Cell Phones/Ca Cell Phones NFC From Atoms to Bits OBJECTS PERCEPTION Detection Systems Technologies Municipal. Tourist Ag. A Product Pr. M B Content Pr. I E Individ.WK N T Comm.WK Regulations From Atoms to Bits OBJECTS Detection Systems Municipal. Tourist Ag. CONNECTIV. Technologies Aggregators Ntw Pl/Host Google Snapfish PERCEPTION A Product Pr. Srv.Aggr. M B Content Pr. Track/V.A I E Individ.WK N Comm.WK T Regulations From Atoms to Bits Technologies Aggregators Platforms Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. CONNECTIV. Municipal. OBJECTS PERCEPTION Detection Systems A Product Pr. Track/V.A M B Content Pr. I E Individ.WK N Comm.WK T Regulations From Atoms to Bits Aggregators Platforms Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. Serv.Prov. META Data C. CONNECTIV. Municipal. OBJECTS A Product Pr. Track/V.A M B Content Pr. I E Individ.WK N Comm.WK T Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. CONTEXT-MEANING Technologies PERCEPTION Detection Systems Regulations From Atoms to Bits Platforms Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. Serv.Prov. META Data C. A Product Pr. Track/V.A M B Content Pr. I E Individ.WK N Comm.WK T Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. Industry Regulations Devices Logistics CRM PHARMA News/Mg COORDINATION Aggregators CONNECTIV. Municipal. OBJECTS CONTEXT-MEANING Technologies PERCEPTION Detection Systems From Atoms to Bits Platforms Tourist Ag. Srv.Aggr. Serv.Prov. META Data C. A Product Pr. Track/V.A M B Content Pr. I E Individ.WK N Comm.WK T Stat.MeaningE. Pers.Aggreg. Ambient Creat. Industry Devices Logistics CRM PHARMA News/Mg Regulations SOCIETY – ETICS - CULTURE COORDINATION Aggregators CONNECTIV. Municpal. OBJECTS CONTEXT-MEANING Technologies PERCEPTION Detection Systems Future Center: Ecosystems evolution You at the Future Centre • Open to other Companies participation • One year committment • Company pays for his researcher • Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure • Open to post-Doc enrolled in the Gold Program • One year committment • Telecom Italia provide a bourse • Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure • Fluency in English required Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow – October-December 2008 Thanks! Get the full multimedia presentation from COMSOC at www.comsoc.org -> education > DLT roberto.saracco@telecomitalia.it