Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow
– October-November 2008
Telecommunications Ecosystems
A peek into the future of
-
Technology
-
Market
-
Business
roberto.saracco@telecomitalia.it
Telecommunications Ecosystems
Evolution: Bio vs Tech&Mkt Ecosystems
 From Convergence to Variety
My View of Communications in 2015
The Innovation Game
 Bacteria…
 Energy
 Innovation: for how long?
 The Pace of Innovation
 Thresholds and the rules of the Game
Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem
Tech
Ambient
Market
n(k)
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
k
13
15
17
19
21
Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem
Evolution
Random + Selection
Env.Share + variations
Success
Creativity + Market
Market share + release
Dynamic Equilibrium
Internal Competition
Dynamic Equilibrium
New Configurations
External Competition
New Value Chains
Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem
Speciation
Food Chains
Discontinuity
Displacement
Cross Feedback
Value Chains
Local Optimum
No Return thresholds
Production Process
Advantage
of the small
Energy Consumption
Economic Efficiency
From Convergence to Variety
2020
2010
1 TB
SSD
200 TB
Burst vs
Streaming
 Bit/Vid Torrent
 Down vs Up


Distribution Chain
50 ns
Sticker
 Energy Control

10s TB
From Convergence to Variety
2010
Gbps Interc. F.
2020
100s’Gbps Interc. F.
 Processing
0.2%
0.001%
1c GFlop

anywhere
Low power
cons/diss
Ultra capacity
“fibred appliances”

Commodity

Real time rendering
Ambient awareness


100 TFlop
100s PFlop
2Tbps Interc. fabric
100 Qbit
28 Qbit

From Convergence to Variety
2020
2010
2010
?
Smart M.
Int
N
?
WISP
Mining
FUTURE CENTRE
A peek into tomorrow’s ecosystems
Telecommunications 2015-A technology view
COMMUNICATIONS will BE:







Enabled by a varieties of infrastructures
Smaller and smaller cells for wireless drops
HWN
Fiber core extending to the very edges
Data center rather than Switching center
based
Burst rather than streaming (but for voice)
100 times todays traffic
Telecommunications 2015-A technology view
Edge Technology:






Make-Believe Interfaces
- 4k video (human resolution)
- tactile sensation (silk, rough, wet…)
Unlimited local storage (TB handheld)
Flexible, programmable sensors
Context awareness
Metadata
Supercrunchers – statistical analyses
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
COMMUNICATIONS will BE:







Visual
Personalised
Contextualised
No distinction between People, Information,
Services
Seamless fabric joining reality and Web
Fading away of the Telephone Number
Involving a variety of loosely coupled Actors
Telecommunications 2015-A Business view
COMMUNICATIONS will BE:






Physical connectivity as utility
both few bigs and a multitude of small.
Basically no space in between
Different biz models for Bigs and Small
Flat rate on connectivity, both for w and wless
Growing importance of top $ versus bottom $
Added connectivity value among apps
Metadata as significant revenue stream
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
My view of Communications in 2015
The vineyard
Wine tasting
Buy!
Your diet
Wine History
From Atoms to Bits
PERCEPTION
Technologies Sensors/Awar
Optical Tags
Bar Codes/Sem
DNA Markers
Image Localiz
RFID Print Elect
OBJECTS
Detection Systems
Network Mirror
Cars
Hand readers
Cell Phones/Ca
Cell Phones
NFC
From Atoms to Bits
OBJECTS
PERCEPTION
Detection
Systems
Technologies
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
A
Product Pr.
M
B
Content Pr.
I
E
Individ.WK
N
T
Comm.WK
Regulations
From Atoms to Bits
OBJECTS
Detection
Systems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
CONNECTIV.
Technologies
Aggregators
Ntw Pl/Host
Google
Snapfish
PERCEPTION
A
Product Pr.
Srv.Aggr.
M
B
Content Pr.
Track/V.A
I
E
Individ.WK
N
Comm.WK
T
Regulations
From Atoms to Bits
Technologies
Aggregators
Platforms
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
CONNECTIV.
Municipal.
OBJECTS
PERCEPTION
Detection
Systems
A
Product Pr.
Track/V.A
M
B
Content Pr.
I
E
Individ.WK
N
Comm.WK
T
Regulations
From Atoms to Bits
Aggregators
Platforms
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
Serv.Prov.
META Data C.
CONNECTIV.
Municipal.
OBJECTS
A
Product Pr.
Track/V.A
M
B
Content Pr.
I
E
Individ.WK
N
Comm.WK
T
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
CONTEXT-MEANING
Technologies
PERCEPTION
Detection
Systems
Regulations
From Atoms to Bits
Platforms
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
Serv.Prov.
META Data C.
A
Product Pr.
Track/V.A
M
B
Content Pr.
I
E
Individ.WK
N
Comm.WK
T
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Industry
Regulations
Devices
Logistics
CRM
PHARMA
News/Mg
COORDINATION
Aggregators
CONNECTIV.
Municipal.
OBJECTS
CONTEXT-MEANING
Technologies
PERCEPTION
Detection
Systems
From Atoms to Bits
Platforms
Tourist Ag.
Srv.Aggr.
Serv.Prov.
META Data C.
A
Product Pr.
Track/V.A
M
B
Content Pr.
I
E
Individ.WK
N
Comm.WK
T
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Industry
Devices
Logistics
CRM
PHARMA
News/Mg
Regulations
SOCIETY – ETICS - CULTURE
COORDINATION
Aggregators
CONNECTIV.
Municpal.
OBJECTS
CONTEXT-MEANING
Technologies
PERCEPTION
Detection
Systems
Future Center: Ecosystems evolution
You at the Future Centre
• Open to other Companies participation
• One year committment
• Company pays for his researcher
• Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure
• Open to post-Doc enrolled in the Gold Program
• One year committment
• Telecom Italia provide a bourse
• Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure
• Fluency in English required
Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow
– October-December 2008
Thanks!
Get the full multimedia presentation from COMSOC at www.comsoc.org -> education > DLT
roberto.saracco@telecomitalia.it