Pay Now or Pay Later?
Investing in Education
Emer Smyth and Selina McCoy
TUI National Symposium ‘Investing in
Education’
17 October 2009
Outline of presentation
1.
Educational expenditure
2.
Overview of educational inequality
3.
Consequences and costs of early school
leaving
4.
Educational policy in relation to
disadvantage
5.
Current policy climate
Educational expenditure



Expenditure on education increased
over the period 1992-2007 but:
More is spent per capita on third-level
than on earlier stages
Ireland still falls behind average
spending levels in EU 19 and OECD
countries
Educational inequality in
Ireland


Unequal outcomes at every stage of the educational
career
A child’s social background matters to:

Their reading and mathematics performance at primary level

The grades they achieve in the JC exam

Whether they stay on in school for the LC

The grades they achieve in the LC

Whether they go on to third-level education
Primary reading scores and
mother’s education
300
250
200
1st class
5th class
150
100
50
0
NQ
JC
LC
PLC
Source: Educational Research Centre, 2005.
Degree
Postgrad
Leaving Certificate completion
by social class
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
Higher prof.
Lower prof.
Non-manual
Source: School Leavers’ Survey.
Farmer
Skilled manual
Semi-skilled
manual
Unskilled
manual
Consequences of early leaving


Early school leaving has striking effects
on a range of adult outcomes
Early leavers are more likely to be
unemployed and, if unemployed, to be
employed for a longer period
Unemployment rate (2008)
35
30
25
20
Early leavers
LC+
%
15
10
5
0
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-59
Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.
60-64
Unemployment rate 15-64
year olds (April-June 2009)
25
20
15
Early leavers
LC+
%
10
5
0
Male
Female
Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.
Employment


Early leavers are more likely to work in
less skilled jobs
They receive lower average pay,
resulting in a significant life-time gap in
earnings
Lone motherhood
40
35
30
25
Early leavers
LC+
% 20
15
10
5
0
20-24
25-34
35-44
Source: Quarterly National Household Survey.
Health outcomes




Early leavers are more likely be in
poor/fair rather than good health
Higher rates of anxiety/depression
Higher rates of smoking and heavy
drinking
Greater dependency on medical card
Broader social outcomes



Vast majority of those in prison are
early leavers
In 2002, committal rate of 46.6 per
1,000 early leavers v. 1.6 for LC+
Consequences for educational outcomes
among the next generation
Costs for society of early leaving




Welfare payments for unemployed and
lone parents
Income tax foregone for those not in
employment
Health: Utilisation of health services
Crime: Cost of imprisonment (€92,717
p.a. in 2008)
Educational policy


Focus on targeted provision for
schools with a concentration of
children from disadvantaged
backgrounds (DEIS)
New ESRI evidence shows that DEIS
schools do indeed have a high
concentration of disadvantaged
students
Students with difficulties
(>25%): Primary schools
80
70
60
50
% 40
30
20
10
0
Literacy
Numeracy
Urban 1
Urban 2
Source: ESRI Survey of Diversity.
Emotional/behavioural
Rural
Non-DEIS
Absenteeism
Students with difficulties
(>25%): Second-level schools
45
40
35
30
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
Literacy
Numeracy
DEIS
Source: ESRI Survey of Diversity.
Emotional/behavioural
Non-DEIS
Absenteeism
Profile of DEIS schools




Less likely to be over-subscribed
Higher concentration of newcomer
(immigrant) and Traveller students
Second-level: higher % of students with
learning or physical disabilities
School climate: behaviour and
engagement of students; involvement
of parents
But not all disadvantaged children
are in DEIS (second-level) schools
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
DEIS
Non-DEIS
Semi/unskilled
Source: School Leavers’ Survey.
Nonemployed
Perception of DEIS scheme
DEIS principals broadly positive about the
scheme and School Completion Programme
 Class size reductions
 Resources and planning for literacy/numeracy
 Provision of meals within school
 Capacity to promote parental involvement
 But issues raised by principals and
stakeholders in relation to policy more
generally

Issues for policy:
Early intervention

Gap on entry to school
“Children start off behind others, way behind the
starting line, children who present at school
significantly behind their peers … Basically they’re
playing catch-up from then on.”


Can DEIS schools ‘close this gap’?
Importance of preschool education
(potential of the new ECCE scheme)
Issues for policy: Targeting


Targeting disadvantaged schools alone is
not enough – not all disadvantaged children
are in DEIS schools
Reported difficulty among principals in
providing information for targeting
“There is anecdotal evidence that ... the idea is
you talk up your school, or talk down your
school. If you’re being truly honest about
your school, that can put you at a
disadvantage … Schools can lose out if
you’re being too honest.”
Issues for Policy: Fragmentation

Schools do not exist in isolation –
need for joined-up policy across
education, health and welfare services
“You can’t treat the child in isolation. …We would be
able to pinpoint at four years of age children who
are at risk for a number of reasons, it could be
speech and language, it could be more emotional,
or lack of emotional, development. And I don’t
think as a society that we are providing those
services. … We’re being reactive rather than
proactive.”
Issues for Policy:
What Can Schools Do?
Important to note that schools can make
a difference to educational retention:
1.
Positive school climate
2.
Positive disciplinary climate
3.
More active learning approaches
4.
Mixed ability grouping
Changes post-Budget 2008




Huge potential of new preschool
scheme
‘Ring-fencing’ of DEIS schools
But potential impact of some
measures on DEIS schools
Likely impact on disadvantaged
children in non-DEIS schools: book
grants; grants for specific groups;
programme grants; SEN students
Recent changes:
On the ground
”I think it’s the start of chipping away and dismantling
a lot of the foundations for the weaker students in the
system.”
“School has to be more than books, school has to be
an experience for children and the sports and the
games and the extra-curricular – that’s what has made
our education system good. There was an emotional
reaction almost to the Budget, they could see all of this
being pulled … All of that qualitative enrichment of the
curriculum, these things aren’t trips, they are
enrichment of the curriculum. They are going and they
are gone.”
The current climate




Recession will impact more on disadvantaged
families
McCarthy report raises likelihood of further
cuts in education spending
Suggested measures will impact on
disadvantaged groups – student/teacher
ratios, specialist staff, capitation fees
But no cost-benefit analysis of these
measures even though educational
investment is found to have long-term
benefits
Final words:
Pay now or pay later?
“Educational equity is a moral imperative
for a society in which education is a
crucial determinant of life chances.”
(Henry Levin, US, 2009)
“We’re losing huge potential here.”
(DEIS school principal, 2009)