The Scenarios Network for Alaska and
Arctic Planning is a collaborative
network of the University of Alaska,
state, federal, and local agencies,
NGOs, and industry partners.
Its mission is to provide timely access to
scenarios of future conditions in
Alaska and the Arctic for more
effective planning by decisionmakers, communities, and industry.

There is now clear scientific evidence that
our planet is warming

How this will affect climate systems
around the globe is an enormously
complex question

Uncertainty and variability are inevitable

Climate change presents significant risks
to natural and cultural resources

Understanding how to address
uncertainty is an important part of
climate change planning

Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
 Complex coupled models created by national
and international labs
 Interactions of oceans, atmosphere, and
radiation balance

Calculated which 5 of 15 models were most
accurate in the far north


A1B, B1 and A2 emissions scenarios (updated to
“concentration pathways”)

Temperature and precipitation projections by month to
2100
Historical data
 Weather station data
 Interpolated and gridded
 CRU data 1901-2008
GCM output (ECHAM5)

Baseline values = PRISM
mean monthly precipitation
and temperature, 2km or
771m, 1971-2000

Adjusted and interpolated
GCM outputs to historical
baseline

Effectively removed model
biases while scaling down the
GCM projections
2.5 x 2.5 degrees
Frankenberg et al., Science, Sept. 11, 2009

Inputs to GCMs
 Solar radiation is essentially a known quantity
 Levels of greenhouse gases are uncertain, but accounted for by
varying emissions scenarios

GCM algorithms
 Oceanic and atmospheric circulation are hard to predict and model
 May include thresholds (tipping points) such as ocean currents
shifting
 Don’t fully account for short-term phenomena such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
The PDO causes
significant climate shifts
on a decadal scale
1.
Projections of future
conditions that are linked to
present and past conditions
2.
Detailed explanations of the
rules, models, and
assumptions underlying the
projections
3.
Objective interpretations of
scenarios based on these
projections
www.snap.uaf.edu
Empirical
.
Simulated
Soil temperature at
1-meter depth:
1980s, 2040s, and 2080s
Torre Jorgenson
Torre Jorgensen
(Geophysical Institute
Permafrost Lab, UAF)
PET is expected to
remain relatively stable
in the early century, but
water loss due to
increased temperature
is likely to increase in
the later part of the
century. However, the
slight hydrologic
changes driven by
changes in PET and
precipitation may be
overshadowed by
hydrologic changes
driven by other climaterelated factors, such as
permafrost thaw and
biome shift.


alaskarenewableenergy.org

www.nenananewslink.com
Change is happening, and will
continue for decades
regardless of mitigation
efforts.
Key tipping points may be
crossed, e.g fire, permafrost,
sea ice, biome shift, glacial
loss.
High uncertainty results in
divergent possible futures for
many important variables.

Forecast Planning
 One Future
-10%
+10%
What we know today
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group
Scenario Planning
 Multiple Futures

Uncertainties
What we know today
Copyright 2010 Monitor Company Group
http://mareeconway.co
m/blog
Everyday choices are based on scenarios
Examining scenarios
 What are possible outcomes?
 What is the likelihood of each
outcome?
 How much do we want to avoid the
bad outcomes?
 How desirable are the good
outcomes?
 How do we balance time and costs
against risks?
Bet the
Farm
Core
Core
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Robust
Satellite
Satellite
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Hedge
Hedge
Your
Your
Bets
Bets
Satellite
Satellite


Collaboration rather than top-down
information transfer
What are the most pressing questions?
 Differ from region to region
 Depend on needs on stakeholder

What questions can SNAP help address?
 What data are and are NOT available?
 How much time/funding is available?
 Role of uncertainty

Desired products
 Maps, reports, presentations, websites, etc.
All SNAP data and
outputs are available
under a Creative
Commons license.
Currently, 24 ongoing and
completed projects are
linked on the SNAP
website, in addition to
reports, videos,
presentations, and
papers.
www.snap.uaf.edu
Questions?