Instruments and Platforms for Measuring Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Britton Stephens NCAR Atmospheric Technology Division Outline • Measurement technologies • Instruments • Precision, potential bias, costs, CDAS implementation • Platforms • Costs, CDAS implementation Accuracy, or more formally reproducibility, is determined by calibration procedures Measurement expenses are largely a function of the cost of the people who carry them out. What do existing flask measurements tell us? TransCom1 FF Gradients Expected from fossil fuel emissions Observations Dry Mole Fraction of CO2 Brazil 370 molecules of CO2 Boulder 370 molecules of CO2 779630 molecules of N2 779630 molecules of N2 210000 molecules of O2 210000 molecules of O2 10000 molecules of Ar 10000 molecules of Ar 40000 molecules of H2O 5000 molecules of H2O Mole Fraction = 355.8 ppm Mole Fraction = 368.2 ppm Dry Mole Fraction = 370.0 ppm Dry Mole Fraction = 370.0 ppm For ± 0.1 ppm consistency, need to stabilize to ± 300 ppm H2O (or dry to dewpoint of -25 ºC) Absolute Measurement Techniques: Manometric and Gravimetric NOAA/CMDL Manometer: Reproducibility of 0.06 ppm (C. Zhao et al., 1997) Relative Measurement Techniques: Non-dispersive Infrared (NDIR) Spectroscopy • Broadband IR radiation filtered for 4.26 um • Cooled emitter and detector • Pulsed emitter or chopper wheel (from www.tsi.com) • 1 or 2 detection cells Advantages: Robust, precise Disadvantages: Non-linear; sensitivity to pressure, temperature, and optical conditions; pressure broadening; power consumption NDIR measurements require calibration gases tied to a common scale NOAA/CMDL scheme for propagation of WMO CO2 scale: At least 4 points needed for 0.1 ppm consistency Recalibration needed ~ every 3 years due to drift $2000 LiCor, Inc. CO2 Analyzer CMDL Flask Analysis System Typical LiCor Output Signals (from www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg) Intra- and Inter-laboratory agreement still not better than 0.2 ppm LiCor Analyzer Specifications Sensor Cost Short-term Precision $7-10,000 0.2 ppm in one second Zero Drift rate <1 ppm per hour Accuracy Depends on calibration scheme CDAS v 1.0 Implementation Setup Cost Operational Cost Precision Bias $50-$150,000 depending on surface platform (+$10,000 per level on tall towers) $50-100,000 per year depending on surface platform, $1000 per flight on light aircraft 0.05 ppm (± 1σ) 0.2 ppm (± 1σ) Manual Flask Sampling CDAS v 1.0 Implementation Setup Cost Operational Cost Precision Bias Sampling $5000 $200 per flask pair (returned as one sample value) + $20*annual flask total 0.05 ppm (± 1σ) 0.2 ppm (± 1σ) Weekly interval1 1Selective sampling based on radon in v 2.0 Automated Flask Sampling (from www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg) CDAS v 1.0 Implementation Setup Cost Operational Cost Precision Bias Sampling $50,000 ($75,000 on buoy) $50 per flask sample ($150 on buoy) + $20*annual flask total 0.1 ppm (± 1σ) 0.2 ppm (± 1σ) Specified 2-24 day interval1 Atmospheric Observing Systems Boulder, Colorado • 1 part in 3000 in 1 minute or less NOAA SBIR Robust, Precise, CO2 Analyzer for Unattended Field Use Under Development • 30 cc/min or less gas usage • Unattended field deployment for 6 months or more • $5,000 or less when manufactured in quantity NOAA/AOS Analyzer Specifications Sensor Cost $5,000 Short-term Precision 0.1 ppm in one minute Zero Drift rate minimal Accuracy Depends on calibration scheme CDAS v 1.0 Implementation Setup Cost Operational Cost $500,000 one-time $15,000 per year, development + $500 per flight on light $15,000 ($20,000 aircraft on light aircraft) (+$5,000 per level on tall towers) Precision Bias 0.1 ppm (± 1σ) 0.2 ppm (± 1σ) Niwot Ridge Pilot Study August 2002 Jeilun Sun, Steve Oncley, Alex Guenther, Dave Schimel, Don Lenschow, Britt Stephens, Russ Monson, and others. Prototype Inexpensive/Autonomous CO2 System RMT, Ltd., Russia Research items: Goals: • Stability of CO2 in aluminum LPG cylinders • 1-2 year service schedule • Correction for zero drift between calibrations • Total installation ~ $2000 • 0.5 ppm accuracy NCAR/RMT Analyzer Specifications Sensor Cost Short-term Precision $2,000 0.5 ppm in one second Zero Drift rate < 25 ppm per hour Accuracy Depends on calibration scheme CDAS v 1.0 Implementation Setup Cost Operational Cost Precision Bias $200,000 one-time development + $5,000 (+$2,000 per level on tall towers) $5,000 per year 0.2 ppm (± 1σ) 0.5 ppm (± 1σ) Sensors in Development Remote Sensing Instruments (not implemented in CDAS v 1.0) • Upward-looking Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers (~$300K+) • Active and passive satellite CO2 measurements ($200- $300M) Both ~ 1-3 ppm in column average with potential biases due to land cover type, aerosols, clouds, viewing and sun angle • Virtual tall towers (~$50K), 0.2-1.0 ppm for weekly-monthly mid-boundary layer values Ground Station Point Barrow Alaska CDAS Implementation v 1.0 Setup Cost Location $5000 Off of coast allowed to simulate clean air sampling v 2.0 Scaled based Only allowed on land, upon location co-located with existing or meteorological station v 3.0 Very Tall Tower WLEF, Wisconsin, USA CDAS Implementation v 1.0 v 2.0 or v 3.0 Setup Cost Location $100 per meter Anywhere Co-located with existing tower or budgeted at $1000 per meter Towers over 650 feet AGL in U.S. and proximity Light Aircraft Profile Carr, Colorado, USA CDAS Implementation v 1.0 v 2.0 or v 3.0 (from www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg) Setup Cost Location $750 per flight Anywhere Only allowed over or near land, clear air selection allowed Volunteer Observing Ship Blue Star Line CDAS Implementation Freighter Travel, Ltd. v 1.0 v 2.0 or v 3.0 Setup Cost Location $20,000 Great circle route between any two points Only allowed co-located with existing shipping lanes Buoy ATLAS Buoy, TAO Array CDAS Implementation v 1.0 v 2.0 (from NOAA/PMEL) Setup Cost Location $25,000 Anywhere Co-located with existing buoy or budgeted at $100,000 Additional Platforms (not implemented in CDAS v 1.0) • Research Aircraft ($1,500-$20,000 per hour) • Research Ships (~$20,000 per day) Conclusions • There are wide ranges of available instruments and platforms for CO2 concentration measurements • All have different setup and operation costs, precisions, and potential biases • Complexity requires a tool for quantitatively assessing creatively designed networks