THORPEX Accomplishes,
Challenges and Lessons Learned
WWRP
David Parsons
U of Oklahoma
School of Meteorology
www.wmo.int/wwrp
www.wmo.int/thorpex
1
The THORPEX Review Paper

Original plan was a single review paper submitted to
Bulletin of the AMS (BAMS)

Discussions with co-authors and Chief of BAMS Editorial
Board led to the paper being split into two articles
WWRP
 THORPEX and the Science of Prediction (submitted
Nov 2014)
 The Successes and Challenges Encountered of the
THORPEX Quest to Benefit Society and the Economy
Through Improved Prediction (Proposal submitted
and informally accepted by BAMS Editor)
Apologies on the 1st Paper
Being So Late
Apologies on the 1st Paper
Being So Late
Apologies to David Burridge for
Apologizing Too Much
THORPEX Research and the Science of Prediction
D. B. Parsons
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma,
USA
M. Beland, D. Burridge, P. Bougeault, G. Brunet, J. Caughey, M.
Charron, H. C. Davies, A. Diongue Niang, V. Ducrocq, Pierre
Gauthier, T. M. Hamill, P. A. Harr, S. C. Jones, R. H. Langland, S. J.
Majumdar, B. N. Mills, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, F. Rabier, J.-L.
Redelsperger, R. W. Saunders, M. A. Shapiro, R. Swinbank, I.
Szunyogh, C. Thorncroft, A. J. Thorpe, X. Wang, D. Waliser, H.
Wernli, Z. Toth
Submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
November 2014
5
Sections in the 1st Paper
• Introduction --- motivation for a program on high impact weather
• Brief History of the program
• THORPEX from the poles to the tropics
• Research on numerical weather prediction systems
• Regional aspects of high impact weather
• Societal and economic aspects of high impact weather
• Roots in the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP)
• Conclusions
Key Strategies For Successful
Science
• Making operational modeling products freely available
to the research community (e.g., TIGGE, YOTC)
• Collaborate with others outside of the weather
community (e.g., IPY, WCRP, GEO, etc)
• Working Groups within THORPEX “worked” and
collaborated on research rather than just reporting on
science
• Regional Committees focused on priority weather
events for their areas
THORPEX from the poles to the tropics
• THORPEX Cluster of Experiments under IPY – large
effort that was unanticipated by the THORPEX Science
Plan – CONCORDIASI, THORPEX Arctic Weather and
Environmental Prediction Initiative (TAWEPI), Greenland
Flow Distortion, STORM Studies of Arctic
• Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) with WCRP --- a
virtual field campaign from May 2008 to April 2010;
access to satellite data through the YOTC-Giovanni
dissemination system and the A-Train, cloud “resolving”
models
• Predictability and dynamics processes of middle
latitude flows – THORPEX PDP, two large national
efforts – PANDOWAE and DIAMET
Numerical Weather Prediction Research
• Data Assimilation research
– Overview paper (Rabier et al. 2008)
– Development and implementation of ensemble and hybrid
systems
• Observing system research
– Review of targeting
– Observation impact studies
– Impacts of new lidar observations
• Ensemble system research
– TIGGE covered in two review papers (Bougeault et al.
(2010) and Swinbank et al. (2015)
Global-to-regional aspects of high impact weather:
regional campaigns
a) High
impact weather in the Mediterrean (HYMEX) -- Ducrocq et al.
2014
Knowledge of atmospheric and hydrological influences that lead to flash floods,
development of improved coupled modeling systems and data assimilation
strategies on convection permitting-scales
b) West African Monsoon (AMMA) – Redelsperger et al. 2006
Advancing observational strategies (rawinsonde and satellite) over West Africa
and knowledge of data impacts, dynamics of African Easterly waves, tropical-extratropical interacts -- NASA collaboration, THORPEX role limited to WG2
c) Tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transitions (T-PARC and
related tropical cyclone experiments)
Knowledge of tropical cyclone targeting in the N. Pacific basin, understanding
and advances in prediction of tropical cyclone genesis, and ET dynamics and
forecast failures
10
What about Quantity?
11
Publications Based on ISI Web of
Science ---Topic Search
What about the Science?
• Count of AMS paper with these
programs/projects in the text.
13
WWRP
2nd Paper

Title and author list tentative

Relatively simple to write as content has been already
written by authors

1st draft to co-authors in mid-December

Request changes back in mid-January

A goal of a submission to BAMS in February
The Successes and Challenges of the THORPEX Quest to Benefit
Society and the Economy Through Improved Prediction
D. B. Parsons
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma,
USA
M. Beland, G. Brunet, D. Burridge, S. Cavallo, M. Charron, J.
Caughey, M. Diop Kane, D. Kleist, A. Diongue Niang, B. Mills, T.
Nakazawa, D.J. Parker, D. Parrish, F. Rabier, C. Saulo, R.
Swinbank, A. Thorpe, Z. Toth, M. Yamaguchi, X. Wang, J. Whitaker.
Proposal formally submitted to the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, November 2014
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Examples of legacy impacts on
operational prediction
1) North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
The Canadian & US operational equivalent to TIGGE- ~
Candille (2009) 1-2 days of skill added in week 2 forecasts
2) Hybrid data assimilation system in the US (NOAA THORPEX) –
”This data assimilation upgrade represents one of the biggest improvements
in U.S. weather and climate forecasting in a decade.”. Louis Uccellini
WWRP
~ 0.5 to 1-day of additional usable skill
Hurricane forecasts (Hamill et al. 2011); Precipitation forecasts over the
Continental US (Lapenta et al. 2012); Global model – (Wang et al. 2013)
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WWRP
Examples of legacy impacts on
operational prediction
3) Legacy of high resolution polar prediction models
Regional Arctic prediction systems for Env Canada (Deacu et al.,
2011; Improved use of satellite observations (Garand et al. 2011)
WWRP
CONCORDIASI – Meteo France efforts in satellite assimilation; Ongoing
work to improve the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in the
US
4) Real-time ensembles of opportunity in South America
Operational impacts
WWRP
5) Real-time TIGGE
predictions of
tropical cyclone
tracks –
Majumdar and
Finocchio, 2010;
Yamaguchi et al,
2012)
North Western Pacific
Tropical Cyclone
Ensemble
Forecast Project
(NWP-TCEFP),
was set-up by the
WMO’s Tropical
Cyclone program
(TCP) and the
Soulik
Fitow
WWRP
Haiyan
Examples of legacy impacts on
operational prediction
6) THORPEX Africa,
WWRP
AMMA-THORPEX
Forecasters
Handbook,
Products for the
WMO’s Severe
Weather
Forecast
Demonstration
Project
(SWFDP)
Broader impacts
Bridging weather and climate --- WCRP collaborations
THORPEX training, workshops, symposiums
THORPEX impact on education – numerous MS thesis and
PhD dissertations, summer short course, etcc
Enhancement in university and operational
collaboration
WWRP
German PANDOWAE and UK DIAMET projects: national
examples of a paradigm shift
An attempt to bridge social science-weather intersections
with socio-economic research and applications
Challenges and lessons learned
Difficulty in making a difference in the developing world
Difficulties integrating social scientific research into THORPEX and obtaining funding
Funding
Some nations had a successful strategy to fund significant national participation in
THORPEX (e.g., German, UK)
Funding for international collaboration on field experiments is far easier than funding
for international collaborations on modeling and theory in some countries (e.g., US
and France)
Funding levels did not materialize as envisioned, despite early successes esp. in US
WWRP
Scientific output is extremely high given that funding levels did not materialize
Some stove piping --- some different camps (better than some as good as most)
Political issues in integrating stakeholders
THORPEX made a difference and can be “compared” to GARP
Thank You