WEATHER RESEARCH AFTER THORPEX Acknowledgements: USTEC Members US THORPEX Planning Workshop, Silver Spring, MD, 5-6 June 2014 1 THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014 • Objective – Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts • History – WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004 • Approach – Research related to end-to-end forecast process – Coordination across • Components of forecast system – Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems • Nations & regions • Research & operational communities – Modernize / optimize forecast system • Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact • Adaptive & probabilistic approaches – Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures 2 SOME MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS • $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies – Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc Developed, tested, & operationally implemented • Adaptive observations – Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program • National Weather Service – Suspended • Ensemble-based DA – Hybrid GSI-EnKF – NCEP, GMAO • Multi-center ensemble forecasting – North American Ensemble Forecast System • NCEP, Canada, Mexico • + FNMOC - NUOPC 3 WWRP REORGANIZATION • Few standing WGs focusing on basic research areas – DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA • Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust Funds – Polar Prediction Project (PPP) - launched – Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) - launched – High Impact Weather (HIW) – final planning phase – Need for coordinated US engagement • What are US needs in next 5-10 yrs? – Societal needs? – Scientific opportunities? 4 US WEATHER RESEARCH PLANNING - 2024 Three considerations: • Formulate expected societal needs – Agency requirements – Agency funding opportunities • Explore scientific opportunities – WWRP projects • Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – Geographical focus • Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – Lead-time focus • High Impact Weather (HIW) – Lead-time focus • Outline US research interests / talent Determine overlap between three factors • Identify US weather research themes – Themes can cut across THORPEX legacy projects 5 THORPEX LEGACY PROJECTS • One atmosphere, all spatial/temporal scales connected • Post-THORPEX projects focus on various aspects of forecasting • Subjects of post-THORPEX projects overlap • US research themes may address / fall under 2-3 post-THORPX projects 6 US THORPEX ORGANIZATION - CURRENT • US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC – NASA – US Navy – NOAA – NSF – US Representative to ICSC Vacant Melinda Peng John Cortinas Michael Morgan Zoltan Toth, Chair • US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC – Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair) • US Program Office – Supported by NOAA & NSF 7 SUGGESTED US POST-THORPEX ARRANGEMENT Purpose – National coordination of US weather research activities • Incl. intl. engagement w. WWRP / THORPEX legacy projects • US Executive Weather Research Committee USWRC – USTEC members (NASA, NOAA, NSF, US Navy) – Invite other agencies (FAA, US Geological Survey, etc) • US Weather Research Science Steering Committee USWRSSC – USTSSC members – New Chair? 8 WORKSHOP EXPECTATIONS • Questions about THORPEX – How THORPEX influenced weather research? – What was triggered, fostered, facilitated w. THORPEX? • What would have happened anyway? • Major projects create opportunities – Realize and take advantage of them – Be creative, don’t be bound by what’s on ground • Create / influence the future • Present outcome of workshop at WWOSC in Montreal – Major US weather research themes 9 BACKGROUND 10