Macroeconomic Problems, Microeconomic Solutions Peter J. Boettke Econ 881/Spring 2005 February 28 Main Points to Stress Macroeconomic problems are coordination problems Production plans must mesh with consumption demands Incentives must be aligned and capabilities must be exploited Capital and Labor Incentive problems are knowledge problems and knowledge problems are incentive problems Changing circumstances result in disturbances, but the crucial question is one of adjustment Feedback and learning through time Macroeconomic Problems Errors of Over optimism Produce products which nobody wants Errors of Over pessimism Don’t product products which people want Capital goods are allocated incorrectly; capital investments are inappropriate; labor is misallocated; and as a result the economy underperformed from the point of view of realizing the mutual gains from exchange, employing resources efficiently, and satisfying the demands of consumer sovereignty. What is the solution to these problems? Classical Market discipline Keynesian Government correctives Fiscal policy Mix of fiscal and monetary policy After Keynes Market equilibrium Fiscal Policy Versus Monetary Policy as a Corrective r IS Liquidity trap makes monetary policy ineffective LM r LM Crowding out makes fiscal policy ineffective IS Y Keynesian World View Y Monetarist World View Neo-Keynesian Synthesis r LM Goods Market equilibrium; Money Market equilibrium r IS Y Y What is Wrong With this Picture? Unconnected to the Choices of Individuals Labor Market Capital Market Money Illusion Fiscal Illusion Autonomous Investment Capital Goods Market Time and the Process of Production Complementarity and Substitutability in the chain of production Labor Market Response Workers do not persistently suffer from money illusion W/P W/P0 W/P1 N N0 N1 Short Run Phillips Curve I Long Run at Natural Rate Short Run Trade Off as Workers Suffer Money Illusion U Lucas Critique of Keynesian System Adaptive Expectations → Rational Expectations Bayesian Learning Expectations on underlying distribution Methodological Rule --- economist cannot assume a level of knowledge greater than the participants in the economy Equilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle Monetary Neutrality and Market clearing Noise and disturbances to the system (signal extraction) Invariance proposition Upshot of Lucas Critique Short Run and Long Run Phillips Curve are the same Microfoundations of Macroeconomics provides coherence to the discipline General Competitive Equilibrium Optimizing behavior Continuous Market Clearing Is New Classical Economics Austrian Economics? Microfoundations Aggregate economics unconnected to choice Rationality Hypothesis or axiom Compositive Method, 233-234 Choice under uncertainty Expectations and the Equilibrium Construct Logical coherence Process theory and adjustment, 236, fn. 25 The Classic Austrian Theory of the Cycle Higher Order Goods r So S1 r D Q Q S/C Lower Order Goods Main Tenets of the ABTC Non-neutrality of Money Injection effects through Relative price adjustments Capital Structure Heterogeneous and multi-specific goods Intertemporal Coordination and Monetary mechanism Capital maintenance and entrepreneurial decision making Interest rates as signals between present and future Complimentarity of Capital and Labor Employment of scarce resources Critique of ABCT Theory Bias error and bias toward particularly costly errors Incoherence of grafting a disequilibrium story on an equilibrium theory Empirical Co-movement of investment and consumption Limited applicability of interest rate mechanism as trigger