Triple Crunch Log
The triple crunch log
2011
…a log compiled by Jeremy Leggett emphasising matters relevant to the energy-, climate-,
and financial crises, and issues pertinent to society’s response to this triple crunch
Editor’s note
This log represents a selection from one person’s reading experience of the unfolding dramas
that most preoccupy him, among the all-too numerous dramas inherent in the human
condition. I have compiled it while pursuing a full time day job in a solar energy company,
and further part-time roles as a director in a private equity fund (throughout) and trustee of a
charity (since 2006). Accordingly, there is far more source material from newspapers than
academic journals and books, most of it culled and processed in evenings, weekends, and
journeys. Magazine and journal reports are on the day of publication, some time (days) after
the actual events referred to. Entries from monthlies appear on the first of each month. After
the creation of the website (June 2009), references use url format where available.
Abbreviations:
boe: barrels of oil equivalent; CCS: Carbon capture and storage; CTL: Coal to liquids; mbd:
million barrels per day; mcf: million cubic feet (bn: billion; tn: trillion etc); L: author’s library
copy for further detail (either digital or paper); mcm: million cubic metres; oe: oil equivalent;
p.a. per annum.
1.1.11.
2.1.11.
3.1.11.
4.1.11.
5.1.11.
UK government launches £5,000 electric car grant scheme. Experts hail 2011 as 'breakthrough' year for
electric cars as mass-market manufacturers roll out new models. Electric cars are set to experience a
breakthrough in 2011 fdue to a £5,000 car grant introduced by the government today, experts predict.
Guardian: “Motorists will have a choice of just one subsidised car to buy outright as the project is launched –
the Mitsubishi i-MiEV – but should have a choice of nine or 10 fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars by 2012.
Among the first available to buy will be the Nissan Leaf in March, which is billed as the first mass-market
electric car. It is currently being made in Japan and will be made in Sunderland from 2013 onwards.”1
Floods in Queensland reach “biblical” proportions. An area the size of France and Germany combined is
under water. The wettest spring in Australia for 20 years is related to an intense La Nina event.2
European debt markets 'face second credit crisis.' Telegraph: ”European debt markets could be hit by a
second credit crisis within months as fears grow over the huge volume of new bonds that must be sold by
governments and banks in 2011. Banks alone must refinance about €400bn (£343bn) of debt in the first half of
the year, but add in the more than €500bn European governments must replace over the same period, as well
as further hundreds of billions of euros of mortgage-backed debt maturing and there is the potential for chaos
in the credit markets.”3
Will Hutton on next 25 yrs: expect a popular revolt against the City, or else – he argues – we will face
economic and social decline.4
US eases barriers to deepwater drilling, but stringent new regulations remain in place for those who
seek to resume. Since the ban on drilling below 500 feet was lifted in October no new permits have been
granted.5
Vallar considers coal acquisitions worth up to be $1bn as it seeks FTSE listing. They are in North
America and Australia. Nat Rothschild hopes to list by the summer. This month his cash-shell Vallar will be
renamed Bumi plc, a vehicle which allows two powerful Indonesian families to list their assets in London.6
Rising oil price threatens fragile recovery in OECD, IEA warns. OECD import costs soared by $200bn to
790bn by in 2010 (up 33%), equivalent to a loss of 0.5% of the 34 member-nations’ GDP. The EU import
increase was $70bn, equivalent to the combined budget deficits of Greece and Portugal. Brent crude hit $95
this week. Fatih Birol “2010 rang the first alarm bells and 2011 price levels could bring us to the same financial
crisis times that we saw in 2008.”7
A Bloomberg survey of anlysts finds expectation that prices in 2011 will be second only to 2008.
Barclays predicts OPEC will be become more proactive but won’t head off $100 oil.8
Coking coal badly hit by floods in Queensland, and steel prices rise accordingly. Thermal coal also
badly affected, so electricity price rises in eg Japan re on the way. It is still raining, nd may be a month before
the full damage becomes clear.9
US official enquiry concludes systemic failures in management led to the Macondo blow-out: in BP
and other companies. William Reilly, a co-chair of the commission: “a pervasive problem of a complacent
industry ….I relcutantly conclude we have a system-wide problem.” The Commission says such a spill “may
well” happen again. BP shares rise nonetheless because of analysts’ conclusion that the implications for liability
are good.10
UK MPs rule out a North Sea drilling ban, but urge companies to step up response plan
shortcomings. The Commons energy and climate change committee had considered a moratorium, but felt
the national interest would be imperilled.11
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6.1.11.
7.1.11.
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11.1.11.
Jeff Rubin article: Peak oil means massive sovereign defaults. Treasury yields are low today because
people expect a recovery. But with $100 oil there will be no such recovery. Global oil demand rose 2.5mbd last
year, pushing us twoards $100 oil. And all the growth needed for the putative recovery would be heavily oil
dependent.12
Sierra Club files its first lawsuit against a solar farm, in the desert near Barstow, California. They argue it
would lie in the middle of a habitat fro rare plants and animals.13
World food prices rise for sixth month in a row to reach highest ever level since records began in
1990. The UN FAO says we are danger territory, and prices they could go higher yet if weather is unkind in
critical agricultural regions.14
The 20 Ratcliffe coal protestors are spared jail sentences because of their motives, but….. The judge
says that they acted with “the highest possible motives.”15 But one protestor writes: “The jury received a more
extensive education on climate change han most people get in a lifetime. That they could not vindicate our
actions is nothing to get self-righteous about; it is deeply disturbing. If the jury, after everything they had
heard, couldn't bring themselves to sympathise with our actions, who will?”16
A lawyer explains why the Kingsnorth 6 coal protestors were acquited and the Ratcliffe 20 weren’t.
Mike Schwartz: “The Nottingham defendants were charged with conspiracy to commit aggravated trespass, and
argued that they acted through "necessity" to prevent death and serious injury caused by climate change. Their
own powerful testimony was supported by leading professors on epidemiology and population health who
confirmed that climate change is currently contributing towards an additional 150,000 deaths each year around
the world. It will only get worse. The Greenpeace defendants were tried for criminal damage to the power
station's chimney and argued that they had "lawful excuse" for their actions: they sought to protect property
around the world threatened by climate change. Again, their vivid accounts of melting ice caps, expanding
oceans and deforestation – and resulting erratic weather, flooding and rising sea levels - were supported by
expert evidence.” He also speculates that Climate-gate had happened in the interim, and could have had an
impact.17
The real cause of the Deepwater Horizon spill was that we are heading for peak oil: Damian
Carrington in the Guardian. We are oil addicted, so we have to drill deeper and take more risks etc.18
The big five UK banks defy political and public pressure to award huge bonuses to their bosses.
Having ulilaterally given them up a year ago in the face of pressure, they evidently feel that the pressure has
eased. 19 RBS has a total pool of £1bn, down from 1.3 last year. Nick Clegg says their actions are “wholly
untenable” and the government will not stand idly by. “We have not given up” on the bonus issue, says an an
ally of George Osborne.20 Osborne calls on Europe to sort out the banking system, saying the response has not
been bold enough.21
Ruling that two US banks wrongly foreclosed on homeowners is set to reverberate in the capital
markets. The Massachussetts Supreme Court ruling is a barometer for thousands of other cases. Recall that
the Attorneys General of 50 states have malpractice investigations underway.22
BP likely to face criminal charges and execs could go to jail, so US legal experts say, having read the
National Commission’s conclusion about a “failure of management.” This despite the failure of the report to
conclude “gross negligence”. The DoJ has had a criminal investigation underway since last June.23
Republicans endeavour to stifle climate change action from Day One of the new Senate. They have
outlined three bills aimed at stifling the powers of the EPA.24
Institutional investors may exit en masse from Spanish assets after government cuts solar feed-in
tariff retroactively. This it did just before Christmas, trimming the pre-agreed sum by €3 ($3.9bn) over the
next three years. Asset manager and private quity groups say the move is illegal. A survey shows nearly half
says they will reduce exposure to Spain generally as a result.25
UK gas supplies down to 5 days after coldest winter since 1890. This is a five year low. LNG helps with
this, it is said. But LNG terminals are not regulated by Ofgem, and operate in a global market.26
Trans-Alaska pipeline leak forces BO to shut down 95% of Prudhoe Bay production. 15% of US crude
supply lost. Repairs should take a week.27
Pentagon must “buy American” in solar panel preocurement, new military authorization law says.
The Chinese will not be best pleased.28
Shale gas drillers take flight drilling faces highest costs for four years. Chesapeake, EOG and other s
are being forced to look for tight-reservoir oil drilling where they can apply their fracking techniques, given the
low gas price.29
Oil, gas and mining now make up one third of the value of the FTSE 100. On Monday January 4 oil and
gas producers were the most weighted sector at 18.8 per cent, with blue-chip miners second for the first time,
with 15 per cent – above the banking sector’s 14.5 per cent. By end of play Friday the blue-chip miners and
banks were tied with a 14.7 per cent weighting. The total weighting of natural resources is more than a third of
the index.30
Six anti-coal activists walk free as undercover policeman who had infiltrated their protest switches
sides. He had become worried about global warming after seven years undercover, latterly with the protestors
at the Radcliffe on Stour coal plant.31
Bob Diamond tells Treasury Select Committee that bonuses must stay: “the time for remorse is
over.” In his impassioned defence, he says he wishes he could “make the issue of bonuses go away.” The
usual arguments: they’ll all go abroad otherwise. He doesn’t say how much his bank is lending to businesses.32
Eon becomes the fifth of the Big Six energy companies to hike prices: 9% for electricity, 3% for gas,
citing rising wholesale energy prices. EDF is the only one that has yet to do so.33
Final report of the US National Commission on the Deepwater Horizon blow-out contains no
surprises. Be more careful please.34
Queensland floods now reach Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city, and could cut 1% off the
3.25% GNP Australian government growth projection for 2011. Thousands flee in low lying areas.35 The city
centre shuts down.36
Coal prices hit a two-year high. Australia is source of some 60% of seaborne coking coal, needed for steel
making.37
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Triple Crunch Log
12.1.11.
13.1.11.
14.1.11.
15.1.11.
16.1.11.
17.1.11.
18.1.11.
19.1.11.
Green infrastructure bonds are essential if we are to raise the cash for renewables. Ben Caldecott of
Climte Change Capital: “In the last two years, studies have shown that around £200bn of low-carbon
infrastructure investment is required in the UK between now and 2020. Ernst & Young estimatesthough that
traditional sources of capital – ranging from utilities through to project finance and infrastructure funds – can
only provide £50-80bn over the next 15 years. How can we close this staggering financing gap? By facilitating
access to the deep pools of low-cost capital held by institutional investors. For example, in 2008 approximately
£3 trillion of long-term assets were held by UK pension funds and insurance companies. Allocating a small
proportion of this total over the coming decade, say 4-5%, to low-carbon infrastructure would close the gap in
capital required.” Via the Green Investment Bank and Electricity market reform, this can now be done.38
2010 was the joint warmest on record (with 2005) since 1880. So says NOAA: 0.62C (1.12F) above the
20th century average. Each year since 2005 has been in the top 15.39
Warmest year announcements by both NASA and NOAA, ignored by all UK press except the
Guardian. A day later, Telegraph covers the story online.40
Portugal completes a successful debt auction, much watched obviously. Stocks rise to a new high on
hopes of growth.41
Oil nears $100, buoyed by optimism on the economy, and supply problems in Alaska and the North
Sea: $98.46 on Wednesday, the highest for two years.42
Vince Cable says he is hopeful of getting a bonus-constraint deal with banks, plus more lending to
SMEs, and greater disclosure. Yesterday the Guardian had reported “Ministers cave in to City over bank
bonuses,” despite al the rhetoric in opposition.43
How China outguns US on clean energy: by spending 1/6 th as much on the military, and investing
twice as much on clean energy.44
Solar stocks face another embattled year, analysts say. Fears of government cuts in support for the
market continue. “Every one of those companies has to have a plan for not starving between now and grid
parity,” says one. “I look at it as a reasonably attractive time to invest – there’s huge scope for sentiment to
improve,”, says another.45
US Commission report on Gulf Spill says the oil industry can learn from North Sea regulation.
“Really?” asks Terry Macalister. The UK’s record has remained patchy since the Piper Alpha explosion (after
which regulation was tightened). And as the US report aslo observed, “the (global) oil and gas industry has no
discernible , broadly based culture of safety.”46
Average UK gas and electricity bills reach £1,250 and energy firms have added £560m to them,
uSwitch says. That is £338 or 37% more than in 2008.47
Energy costs “damaging the UK economy” say the Major Energy Users Council and the Federation of Small
businesses.48
US EPA revokes a mine’s permit for mountaintop removal because it poses an “unacceptable” threat
to the surrounding area in West Virginia. This is a historic move: the first time a previously issued permit has
been revoked in 40 years. The Spruce Number One mine would have blasted away 2,200 acreas of mountain
top.49
Head of American Petroleum Institute on peak oil: “We take warnings about “peak oil” and “running out of
oil” with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, the world does need to be mking significant investments in new oil
development to ensure that supplies keep pace with demand.” So says Jack Gerard in the FT.50
GE buys its third energy business in a month. This one makes energy-efficient power supply equipment for
data centres and towers used for cloud computing and mobile web services. The other two were in oil servies. 51
BP and Roneft form a joint venture to drill for oil in Arctic Russia. Rosneft takes 5% of BP shares. Putin
praises Dudley as “professional” with a “very serious attitude to business:” rather a contrast from the time he
was the embattled CEO of TNK-BP. BP clearly sees its future in Russia. The water it can drill allows only 100
days of drilling a year, and it could be three years before drilling starts, says BP.52
BP’s Rosneft deal faces a backlash on two fronts. One is from the TNK-BP billionaire oligarchs. The Kremlin
is now the single largest shareholder in BP. Another is in the US, where BP is a major supplier to the military. 53
“Bringing the bankers to heal must start right here, right now,” writes Will Hutton in the Observer.
“Bank bonuses are but the visible sign of dysfunction in the financial system.”54
Lawyer representing Khordorkovsy says BP “has abolutely zero idea of what it’s getting into.” Bob
Amsterdam says “BP will do anything for people not to talk about the Gulf and Rosneft will do anything for
people not to talk about how it got its assets.” Bloomberg reports that ormer Yukos managers and shareholders
have filed a $98bn suit in the European court of human rights and a $100bn case in the permanent court of
arbitration in The Hague. The first case completed hearings in March 2010 and may issue a judgment this
year.55
Co-op report warns over shale gas dangers in the UK as Cuadrillo Resources, drilling in Lancashire,
reports “first true shale gas find” in Europe. The Co-op is calling for a moratorium until environmental concerns
have been addressed.56
UK report calls for energy rationing within the decade. Greenwise business: Fuel and energy rationing will
be needed before 2020, according to a new parliamentary report that is proposing a system to make sure
people have fair and equal access to energy while helping the Government meet its 80 per cent carbon
emission reduction by 2050. Fuel and energy rationing will be needed before 2020, according to a new
parliamentary report that is proposing a system to make sure people have fair and equal access to energy while
helping the Government meet its 80 per cent carbon emission reduction by 2050. …. "TEQs is the kind of
approach we will need if we are to mobilise the infrastructure of a zero-carbon future fast, under pressure. It
would increase the chances of working our way through the grim times to renaissance-through-resilience,"
Jeremy Leggett, chairman of Solarcentury added.”57
Finance was “carried off by the carpet baggers” because of the decline of partnerships and mutuals,
John Kay writes in the FT.58
Opec quitely lifts production to try and drive oil price down. The last time bulls bet against the cartel, in
2008, they won. This time, Opec may have enough spare capacity, Javier Blas opines in the FT: 5 mbd, mostly
in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait. About half of that is good quality, processable by most refineries. The IEA
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21.1.11.
23.1.11.
24.1.11.
26.1.11.
thinks this is enough to cool the market. But record sums have been bet on rising prices, according to the US
Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Saudi Arabia lifted production to 8.6 mbd last month, the most in two
years. Opec as a whole lifted production 250,000 bd to 29.6 mbd, the most since December 2008.59
UK Banking Commission will not leave banks “too big to fail” untouched, Sir John Vickers promises.
The Commission reports by September.60
EU internal market commissioner warns banks to curb bonuses. Michel Barnier is the EU.s top regulator.
Brussels is still consider in the whole area of corporate governance in the financial services sector, he says.61
Opec quitely lifts production to try and drive oil price down. The last time bulls bet against the cartel, in
2008, they won. This time, they may have enough spare capacity, Javier Blas opines in the FT: 5 mbd, mostly
in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait. About half of that is good quality, processable by most refineries. The IEA
thinks this is enough to cool the market. But record sums have been bet on rising prices, according to the US
Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Saudi Arabia lifted production to 8.6 mbd last month, the most in two
years. Opec as a whole lifted production 250,000 bd to 29.6 mbd, the most since December 2008.62
Exxon says carbon emissions will rise 25% in 20 years. Its annual energy outlook is gloomier than
anything governments are prepared to say. The latest Met Office view: stop emissions rising by 2020, and then
cut 1-2% pa, and you get 2.7 to 3.7 degree rise in global average temperature this century, continuing
thereafter.63
BP says carbon emissions up 27% in 20 years. Their 2030 energy outlook is even more gloomy than
Exxon’s. Its “not something any of us would like to see happening”, says Bob Dudley. Wind, solar and biomass
account for 18% of the growth in the scenario, four times higher than gas.64
UK government defends Rosneft tie-up together. Foreign Office minister Lord Howell says he has “great
admiration for the deal.65
“Britain triggers global inflation alarm” FT headline. The consumer price index hit 3.5% in December, and
some investors have gone bearish on government bonds. Lenders are withdrawing their cheapest rate deals
and mortgage owners are rushing to fix rates.66
US shareholders challenge gas companies on fracking. Resolutions have been filed against nine
companies challenging them to release data on chemicals used. Exxon, one of the nine, supports the release of
the information.67
Traders rage against EU’s “Mickey Mouse” carbon trading system after botched regulatory
statement causes price surge and hence heavy losses. This comes hot on the tail of a separate fraud enquiry
that closed parts of the EU emissions trading scheme this week.68
One of Will Hutton’s 10 ideas for building a better Britain: Build great companies with the right
owners. “Too few British firms have good owners. Two more important companies – Smith and Nephew, and
De La Rue – are fighting to retain their independence from foreign takeovers. Their shareholders do not care
about innovation, their staff or customers; their priority, and thus that of the directors, is only next month's
share price. Increasingly Britain is a hollowed out economy for hire rather than a centre of business decisionmaking and wealth generation in its own right. There has to be root-and-branch overhaul of the framework for
owning, directing and launching takeovers of Britain's companies.”69
Big Five oil companies set to invest a record $128bn over the next 12 months, a 10-15% increase on
last year, seeking to expand production at a time of high oil prices.70
UK government says nuclear operators must pay the first £1bn towards the cost of any accident.
Currently their liability is capped at £140m: a sum enshrined in EU law because nuclear operators can’t get
insurance. The EU is proposing to raise the cap to €700m and governments will be allowed to add €500m if
they wish. In other words Huhne wants the UK’s cap to be the maximum allowed.71
Senior Saudi official says Saudi must develop solar and nuclear to stop soaring domestic oil use. In
less than 20 years, most production will be burned domestically, on current trends. 8m barrels a day will be
needed just for domestic needs by 2028, roughly equivalent to its current production. So says Hashim Yamani,
president of the King Abdullah Atomic and Renewable Energy City, on the sidelines of a conference on Sunday.
The kingdom currently burns a total of 3.2m/b a day. “Oil exports and economic growth will be constrained if
there is no mix of alternative energy,” Mr Yamani said. “We won’t be able to leverage prices of oil to build our
institutions.” FT: “Demand for electricity in the desert country is rising at an annual rate of 8 per cent and is
expected to triple to 121,000 megawatts by 2032, the government has said. In the 2011 budget, the kingdom
channeled SR500m ($133m) to renewable energy. Mr Yamani said he expected to produce solar energy in
commercial quantities “sooner” than atomic power. The latter will take from 8-to-10 years, he said. …. “We will
not just buy or import institutions and sell energy,” Mr Yamani, a former commerce and trade minister, said.
“We have to develop industries and research related to alternative energy. … On Sunday, Anne Lauvergeon,
chief executive of Areva, the French nuclear reactor contractor, told reporters that her company will sign a
partnership agreement with Saudi Arabia’s Binladin Group for nuclear and solar energy cooperation.”72
German government rejects armed forces report concluding peak oil occurred in 2010. Bloomberg:
“Crude output “can be increased through 2035 under today’s conditions, assuming an optimal development and
exploitation of reserves,” HIB (newsletter) said today, citing the government’s response to a query by the
opposition Green party. The government’s outlook is based on International Energy Agency estimates, it said.
The German armed forces said in a report that maximum global crude output, so-called peak oil, occurred in
2010 “with a certain likelihood,” according to HIB. The study is yet to be completed, HIB cited the government
as saying.”73
Halliburton profits soar, despite post-Macondo downturn in Gulf, because of shale gas and oil. Net
profit more than doubled in the fourth quarter.74
China’s struggle against water shortages becomes ever more apparent. A Guardian article describes the
latest megaproject, a £1.1bn desalination plant at Tianjin, that is not economic. Simon Powell, head of
sustainable research at the CLSA brokerage: “We think China will build an additional 20 plants. They have to.
We think tariffs will go up and desalination costs will come down so it will be profitable in future." But … "all the
planned desalination plants will at best supply only half of Beijing's water. It's a drop in the ocean."75
President Obama says US faces a Sputnik moment” in its stuggle to arrest economic decline, with
clean energy central in the nation’s response. His State of the Union address announces a cut in the corporate
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Triple Crunch Log
27.1.11.
28.1.11.
30.1.11.
tax rate and $400bn of cuts over ten years, plus new spending on R&D, clean energy including solar, and a
national high-speed rail network. He proposes the elimination of billions of dollars in subsidies to the oil
industry.76
“Goldman president warns on bank rules:” FT headline. Gary Cohn leads the banks’ charge against
“threat” of regulation of the kind the UK Banking Commission seems to favour. “In the next few years, the
unregulated sector will grow at an exponential rate,” he said. “Risk is risk. My concern is that ... risk will move
from the regulated, more transparent banking sector to a less regulated, more opaque sector.” He means
hedge funds.77
Greenland ice sheet less prone to basal lubrication than previously feared, new study in Nature shows.
The water at the base tends to form discrete channels, and drains rather than lubricates.78
DECC consultation suggests “supply crunch if not a peak in oil production” very likely before 2020.
UK Parliamentary question by John Hemming: “To ask the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
whether he has estimated a date on which global production of crude oil will peak; and if he will make a
statement. [36644] Charles Hendry: We have not estimated a date on which global production of crude oil will
peak. However, we do look at a variety of sources that assess oil demand and oil depletion including the IEA,
industry and other research organisations. In 2010, DECC's chief scientist sent out a call for evidence on the
prospects for future oil supply to a range of experts. A number of responses received argue that a supply
'crunch' (a tightness in the oil market), if not a peak in oil production, is very likely before 2020. We are very
grateful for the excellent responses and will use the results to help ensure that our analysis is informed by all
relevant factors and further develop energy policies that reduce the risks inherent in a resource constrained
future.”79
Fears of the Suez Canal closing, and other export disruption/slowdown, help push oil near to $100.
This should make DECC’s consultation all the more urgent.
BoE researchers conclude Basle III should require banks to hold 16-20% of their assets in equity,
not the 7% agreed.80
TNK-BP Russian shareholders file for an injunction against the BP-Rosneft hook up. The shareholder
agreement apparently commits BP to the TNK-BP partnership as BP’s primary vehicle in Russia.81
European Commission extends freeze on carbon trading indefinitely, until countries can prove that
hackers can’t steal credits. 30 countries currently participate in the ETS.82
Good Energy plans to sell community bonds to fund a five year expansion of wind generating
capacity. They will be offered to customers and communities near planned sites. CEO Juliet Davenport seeks
£2.5m in the first raise, and another £10m across the period, to add to the retailer’s current 9.2 MW capacity.83
World’s biggest cleantech investor says 5-10 companies in sector will go public in 2011, in
multibillion dollar U.S. offerings. Plus as many will be acquired in equally significant acquisition deals. So
Vantage Point Venture Partners CEO Alan Salzman tells Reuters at Davos. IPOs this year will come from
makers of thin film solar panels, utility-scale solar power plants, algae oils, and smart grid components,
Salzman says. VPVP, the world's largest investor in the sector, plans to double the size of its existing fund to
$2.5 billion. As of last September, VantagePoint had invested half of its initial $1.25 billion fund.84
Oil price nears $100 as tensions grow in the Middle East. Encouraged by Tunisia’s successful ousting of
its dictactor, Egyptians are now revolting against Mubarrak. Traders are worried about oil export routes through
the Suez Canal and a pipeline to the Mediterranean.85
“Enlightened energy”: FT headline for article on UK solar feed-in tariffs. While the price for solar energy
is coming down, the costs for traditional energy generation are soaring. Jeremy Leggett of Solar Century agrees
with other analysts in their prediction that the costs for energy generation from both sources will be on a par by
2013. Leggett says that the really important point is that we won’t be able to rely on energy imports in the
future and so need to encourage as much domestic generation as possible. “Although the introduction of feedin tariffs has only expanded the UK market from minuscule to tiny, it’s going in the right direction,” he says.”86
“China dims prospects for Silicon Valley jobs”: FT. By guaranteeing access to large local markets, China is
working harder than the US to attract new cleantech industries to do both manufacturing and R&D in China. 87
Ban Ki-moon tells Davos panel that the world’s economic model is “environmental suicide”. The UN
Secretary-General is swithcing his focus from climate change to sustainability.88
Vestas lays off 2,200 from a workforce of 22,000, with another 800 to come. Most are in Denmark and
Sweden, where there is European overcapacity.89
Australia imposes a “flood tax” to pay for the clean up of Queensland’s flooding 0.5-1% of this years
income for middle- and high-income earners. Lex in the FT: “Canberra could have chosen to borrow rather than
tax to cover this unbudgeted expense, equivalent to about 1.5 per cent of the government’s A$365bn of
planned spending for the fiscal year beginning in April. In this age of reckless sovereigns, the choice of a levy is
extraordinary, but prudent.”90
Big banks watch Barclays as it plans to pay bonuses with bonds dubbed cocos: instruments that
convert into equity at a time of financial crisis.91
Huhne in conflict with Treasury officials over the green investment bank. They don’t want it established
as a bank, just a fund, dispensing grants and loans. They can’t see were it would fit on the national balance
sheet.92
Oligarchs call extrarodinary board meeting seeking to ban payment of TNK-BP’s $1.8bn dividend for
fourth quarter. BP CEO Bob Dudley hopes to reinstate BP’s dividend payment for the fourth quarter. BP
receives about half of the TNK-BP $1.8bn. The oligarchs say BP will need the cash for expansion in Russia. In
their latest play fighting the BP-Rosneft hook-up, they have also accused the BP director on the TNK-BP board
of breaching his fiduciary responsibility.93
“There is no one in control of the world’s economy”, says Will Hutton, having attended the Davos WEF
conference. “There are more than 200 million people unemployed worldwide, of whom 78 million are under 24.
According to the International Labour Organisation, there are 1.5 billion people in vulnerable employment. The
world population is going to rise by another 2 billion in the next 40 years, almost entirely in Asia and Africa.
What are they going to eat, drink and do for energy when even current levels of food production, water supply
and energy production are inadequate? As Egypt's President Mubarak fights for his political life from street
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protests fuelled in part by sheer economic desperation, suddenly the questions are no longer for Davos's
seminar rooms – they are urgent and real.”94
Is Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO, “the most dangerous man in America?” Will Hutton: “Jamie Dimon,
CEO of JPMorgan Chase, led the pack at Davos, saying that banker-bashing must now stop and that banks
needed to be left free in order to finance recovery. He even had the gall to insist that the main risk to the world
economy was government debt and the US's $1.5 trillion budget deficit in particular. Dimon is right to point to
the risk, but criminally wrong to neglect the banks' role in creating the recession, of which the US budget deficit
is the consequence, and doubly wrong never to challenge the power of the bond markets and financiers. Yet
without a $1.5 trillion US budget deficit and government guarantees to the banking system, there would be no
US and world recovery, no world banking system and no cocksure Jamie Dimon. Economist Simon Johnson,
formerly chief economist at the IMF, regards him as the most dangerous man in America, ringleader of the
intellectual and business forces that have so damaged the world. Never has the interconnection between raw
power and ideas been so obvious. Johnson can detail how every economist who takes a deregulatory, pro big
bank line has received fees and income from the banks for his or her work, a stance that hardly wins him many
friends.”95
Michael Lewis talks of a right wing plan to rewrite the credit crunch narrative. Observer: “Lewis says
he isn't surprised that the four Republican members of the (US Financial Crisis Inquiry) commission refused to
sign off its findings. "There is a big effort by the right wing to carve a narrative out in the public mind. It runs
as follows: it was government intervention that created the crisis; Bill Clinton forced the banks to lend money
to black people; Barney Frank [former Democratic chairman of the House of Representatives financial services
committee] turned a blind eye to what was going on at [mortgage companies] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
which then generated demand for these loans. / "A few people have worked on that story, because whenever I
speak at lectures, somebody always jumps up to peddle this line. But if you look at the facts, Fannie and
Freddie's share of the sub-prime market fell in 2005, 2006 and 2007. The crash happened because of a
dramatic failure of free markets and capitalism in general. To top it all, the banks were saved by the taxpayer.
In other words, banks benefit from socialism, while everyone else has to live under capitalism. The people who
are paid the most live by a different set of rules to everyone else. How absurd is that?"”96
Oil breaks through $100 for the first time in two years. In the revolution now sweeping the Arab world’s
most populous country, the army has said it will not use force against the protestors. The possibility of a six
day transit via the Cape for west-bound oil is enough to bring on three digits. Plus the fear that the turmoil will
spread to the Gulf. Deputy Director-General of IEA says if the price stays up for a long time it would be a
matter for “considerable concern.”97
TNK-BP oilgarchs decide to block their dividend. TNK-BP oil is about a quarter of BP production. Analysts
profess not to be too phased.98
“Companies play catch-up with campaigners”: Michael Skapinker in the FT. “What should companies do?
They should certainly put far more strongly the benefits that they bring to society, but they need to recognise,
as many company leaders do, that, following the financial collapse and the controversy over high executive
pay, their moral position is weak. And, while they are trying to recover from that, they should survey the world
of social networking and online video and ask why so many NGOs are so much better at it than they are.”99
Judge puts BP-Rosneft deal on hold, clouding results anouncement which included a dividend
resumption of about half the normal pay-out, despite an annual loss of $4.9bn, the first for two decades.
Dudley will sell half BP’s US refineries including Texas City, and focus on relationships with national oil
companies and increased exploration. He tries to shrug off the TNK-BP oligarchs success in court. The
injunction stands until 25 February. The two sides will go to arbitration in Stockholm.100
UK greenhouse gas emissions dropped 8.7% in 2009 as recession lowers electricity and fuel use. CO2 was
down 9.8%.101
Move to low carbon economy will cost Europe €2.9 trillion, a report by Barclays and Accenture
concludes: 2% of Europe’s GDP. Even this amount may not hit the 2020 emissions target, and there is little
evidence that such a sum is forthcoming, the report concludes. €617bn would go to wind and solar, the biggest
segment. The report calls for banks to securitise their cleantech debt by issuing large-scale creation of green
bonds. But they are not even willing to lend to cleantech projects.102
US embassy cables: Is Saudi boom reaching its limits? Cable dated:2007-09-19T15:24:00 1. SUMMARY
(C) With temperatures reaching 115 degrees, the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia is both literally and
metaphorically "too darn hot." With vast investments being made in oil and petrochemical projects, post hears
constant complaints of shortages of materials, qualified workers, and infrastructure. All of the residential
compounds in the Eastern Province with adequate security have long waiting lists. Aramco's CEO in a recent
meeting with the CG admitted that one of his most pressing challenges is finding qualified engineers for all of
Aramco's new projects. This cable summarizes data suggesting that the enormous economic boom that the
Eastern Province is witnessing may be approaching capacity limits. END SUMMARY.103
Mass tree deaths in Amazon stoke fears of climate tipping point. The billions of tree deaths caused by
the record 2010 drought could turn the vast forest from carbon sink to carbon source, scientists fear. The
Amazon has been soaking up more than a quarter of atmospheric carbon. This latest study was done by team
led by the University of Leeds, publishing in Science. Their estimate is that 8.5 billion tonnes of CO2 was
emitted: more than China’s emissions of 7.7bn tonnes in 2009.104
Cyclone Yasi, Queensland’s worst in a century, leaves thousands homeless …..again. An analyst
estimates the Category 5 storm will cut A$2bn from Australian GDP (0.6%), but has a much higher damage
bill.105
Shell makes nearly £1.6m an hour profit in the last quarter. Full year profits reached $18.6bn, up almost
100% on 2009.106
Petrobras plans to double Brazil’s oil output from 2-4 mbd by 2020. It plans to invest $224bn by 2014.
It and its supply chain are 7-8% of Brazil’s GDP at present.107
Shell delays Alaska drilling plans by 12 months over uncertainty whether it will get regulatory clearance in
the wake of the Macondo spill.108
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Investors pull $7bn from emerging markets funds in a wave of fear as a result of Egypt’s revolution, $100
oil, and soaring food prices. A record $95bn flowed to such funds last year.109
Bob Diamond set to receive a £9.5m bonus, putting him top of the bank CEO league. FT speculates
that this could re-ignite the row over bankers’ pay.110
RBS could pay £1m bonuses to 200 staff. Government claims its hands are tied by a contract signed by
Labour government saying this years bonuses could be “in line with market.” Revenues have fallen 30% this
year. The compensation ration (proportion of revenues allocated to pay) is 34%, up 10% on 2009111
Aviva head of fund management calls for reform of the “amoral” financial system. Paul Abberley, CEO
of Aviva Investors - £240bn under mangement - says investors are unable to walk away from investment
opportunities even if they undermine the global environment or the fabric of society.112
China’s national economic blueprint is set to tackle pollution while investing in renewables. The next
5 year plan, due in March, is said to be the greenest strategy document in the nation’s history.113
BP hits back at the TNK-BP oligarchs, accusing them of holding the company to ransom and starting
“spurious” legal action. The Russians accuse BP of using “excessive” language.114
Observer: “Ten ways to change the way we live. 10. Use people power to control finance. When we
entrust our cash to traditional financial institutions, we tend to wonder how secure they are, rather than what
we're investing in. But, argues Jeremy Leggett, founder of SolarCentury, the short-termism of the current
banking system is worsening the coming energy and climate crises. "Asset managers are investing people's
pensions and insurance premiums much more in coal and gas than in renewables," says Leggett. "The giants of
finance are allowed to place no value on a survivable future, and they act accordingly: in a suicidal manner,
deploying our money as they go blindly about their bonus building."”115
“UK says it may cut prices paid for renewable power”: Bloomberg. “The department said it will speed up
an analysis of solar projects bigger than 50 kilowatts, with new tariffs mandated “as soon as practical.” That
threshold, which includes panels on buildings, is a “huge step back” for the industry, which expected only
installations in fields to be reviewed early, said Jeremy Leggett, chairman of Solarcentury Holdings Ltd. “This
sets back the U.K. industry, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the last straw for some investors,” Leggett
said in a telephone interview today after having lunch with Greg Barker, the minister in charge of the program.
That meeting hadn’t put his mind at ease, he said. / Leggett’s views were backed up by Osaka-based Sharp
Corp.’s U.K. solar chief Andrew Lee, who said the move will “cripple” the industry. Dave Sowden, chief
executive officer of the Micrpower Council trade group, said it would put “jitters” into the market. ….“This is
going to put the jitters into some market segments,” Sowden said today in a phone interview. “It’s the fasttrack threshold of 50 kilowatts that is of concern, because that’s going to catch a lot of rooftop installations.
That’s come as a surprise. Nothing in reading the tea leaves of parliamentary language flagged concern in that
area.” Sowden’s view was backed up by Leggett, who said “never once through this exercise were we give to
understand that solar on buildings was to be at risk by early review.”116
UK solar firms seek legal advise about government’s revision of of tariff. So says the CEO of the
Renewable Energy Association, not naming them.117
Wikileaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices: Guardian. A US
diplomat is convinced by ex Saudi oilman Sadad al-Husseini that (potential) reserves have been overstated by
nearly 40%, and that the world’s number one producer is “running to stand still” as a result of operational
challenges. “al-Husseini is no doomsday theorist,” the cable concludes. “His pedigree, experience and outlook
demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.” “Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry
Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: "We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat
to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse.”118
By mid afternoon, the oil price barely budges. The FT thinks this is because Sadad al-Husseini is “a well
known peak oil theorist who has said this in public many times before.”119
Saudi exports fell 16% in 2009 as domestic consumption rose, and production shows nothing like an
upward trand.120
Investment banks in Mongolian coal gold rush, including brawling in a pub in Ulan Bator. The prizes
include the IPO of a state owned company, Erdenese Tavan Tolgoi, which owns a vast coal deposit in the Gobi
desert. With an estimated 6.5bn tonnes of reserves, mostly coking coal, the company is the second-largest coal
field in the world after Shengli in China.121
Solar PV becoming cheaper than gas in California? Renewable Energy World: “We hear it every day:
"Solar is too expensive." Well, not according to the California utility Southern California Edison. In a recent
filing to the state's Public Utilities Commission, SCE asked for approval of 20 solar PV projects worth 250 MW –
all of which are expected to generate a total of 567 GWh of electricity for less than the price of natural gas.
Although the exact details of the 20-year contracts for the projects are kept confidential for a few years, the
utility reports that all winning solar developers issued bids for contracts below the Market Price Referent, which
is the estimated cost of electricity from a 500-MW combined-cycle natural gas plant. What does that mean? It
means that a large number of solar PV project developers believe they can deliver solar electricity at a very
competitive price. And these aren't mega-projects either. All of the installations will be between 4.7 MW and 20
MW – a sweet spot for PV projects.”122
British banks mild concessions and Treasury acquiescence leads to resignation of Lib Dem Treasury
spokesman, Lord Oakeshott. The banks have agreed to lift lending to SMEs from £66bn to 76bn, and this
outcome of “Project Merlin” is cast as a reason for peace between government and City. Bonuses are not
materially affected. George Osborne says it is time to end “banker bashing” and “move from retoribution to
recovery.”123124
British gas prices will continue to go up despite the “shale gas glut”, says Centrica CEO. “Shale has
certainly revolutionised the US market, releasing vast, and hitherto uneconomic reserves. It now accounts for
20% of production there, up from just 5% in 2006. As a result, the price of natural gas in the US has fallen by
40% over the last three years. At times this month it has traded at half the cost of gas in the UK. / But there
are strong reasons for seeing the shale gas phenomenon as largely confined to the US, at least for some time.
Although the existence of gas-bearing shales in the States has been known about for decades, its potential has
only recently been unlocked through a combination of access to acreage, incentives for owners and exploration
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companies, and the existence of a well-developed supply chain. These conditions are unlikely to be replicated
elsewhere.”125
World consumed an extra 2.8 million barrels of oil a day last year, 3.3% up on 2009. So says the IEA.
This beats expectations. They forecast another 1.5mbd in 2011. For the third month in a row they have revised
figures up.126
WTI-Brent oil price divergence hist a record $16. The Saudis have dropped WTI, saying privately that it is
“too much like gambling.” WTI has fallen because of a surge in inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery
point for US oil into the American pipeline system.127
Corporate investment in cleantech rose in 2010 even in recession. Richard Youngman: “During 2010,
there were 84 active corporations investing in cleantech venture deals (investing directly or through a venture
unit), up from 74 in 2009, and that this rise was in sharp contrast to the overall decline in the total pool of
investors investing in growth cleantech companies (down to 746 in 2010 from 824 in 2009).128
Many of the worse-performing pension funds charge the highest fees. HSBC Life charges 41% of the
fund growth in fees over 25 years.
China resorts to emergency water aid in bid to protect wheat from worst drought in 60 years. The
world’s biggest wheat producer announces a billion dollars of aid for digging of wells and diversion of water.
Some 2.6 m people and 2.8 m livestock are affected. The Army is firing cloud –seeding chemicals into the
sky.129
Oil shock possible in 2012, Steven Kopits of Douglas Westwood argues. Thus, effective spare capacity
in the global system should be considered 1.4 - 2.4 million b/d less than the 4.65 million b/d currently reported
by the EIA. Consequently, it may not be more than 2.25 – 3.25 million b/d, in essence as much as global
growth in demand last year. This is not much. Further, if we pair reduced spare capacity with increased
demand, then effective surplus capacity is consumed at a brisk pace. By the middle of 2012, spare capacity
could be as low as 1 million b/d, or even less, if the Saudis decide to limit production at 10 million b/d.” ASPO
USA Newsletter.130
EU could meet 2050 carbon targets more cheaply with gas than renewables, say gas firms. €900bn
could be saved, say Gazprom, Centrica and others. They are lobbying against the phase out of gas.
UK solar companies mull legal challenge to government over reversal on feed-in tariff. Investors
speak of confidence shot. "This is bad news for the solar industry and bad news for the big society," said
Jeremy Leggett, the executive chairman of Solar Century. "What the Government is doing is going to be really
damaging for companies and investor confidence."131
There are more Russian oligarchs than ever: 114 dollar billioaires at the end of 2010., beating even 2007,
when there were 101. Bu they are together worth $182bn, less than 2007’s $221bn.132
Banks’ hidden subsides from taxpayer worth £32bn a year, nef estimates. Big Society funding from
banks worth £0.3bn meanwhile.133
UK Big Society projects could be funded by individual savers. Guardian: “The Cabinet Office paper (due),
Growing the Social Investment Market: A vision and strategy, attempts to answer critics who say the cuts will
kill volunteering by suggesting that social investment could eventually become as important a source of charity
funding as traditional donations and the state. The government is also setting up a "big society bank" to fund
social enterprises. It will start operating in April with up to £100m of the £400m from dormant accounts being
made available this year. Banks are going to lend it another £200m on commercial terms.” 134
Three UK energy companies pay security firm to spy on activists: Eon, Scottish Power and coal company
Scottish Resources Group, leaked documents show. Guardian: “he disclosures come as police chiefs, on the
defensive over damaging revelations of undercover police officers in the protest movement, privately claim that
there are more corporate spies in protest groups than undercover police officers.135 The same goes on in the
US.136
US must help Saudi Arabia turn into “the Saudi Arabia of solar,” WikiLeaks cables say. JL writing in
the Huffington Post: “I find it encouraging to see American diplomats thinking like Silicon Valley visionaries
when it comes to the role renewable energy industries can have in generating a secure and sane world a couple
of short decades from now.”137
“Let's put some weight behind the cleantech revolution. Jeremy Leggett asks why the cleantech
revolution is proving more troublesome than the digital and internet revolutions.” “One answer, many
concluded, was that there have been no truly "catapult" partnerships between giant and small companies thus
far in the history of cleantech. Some are coming close: witness, for example, solar-thermal
company Brightsource's hook-up with engineering giant Bechtel. But a new Microsoft? We must dream on, for
the moment. / We must do so, I believe, because giant energy companies have licences to print money, only
lightly regulated, by essentially maintaining course with supposed assets that are often toxic to ecosystems. I
generalise only slightly. In this regard, they are in a rather similar category to banks. Banks have a licence to
print money, only lightly regulated, by essentially maintaining course with supposed assets that are often toxic
to economies. Here I don't generalise at all. / The pairing of these two categories of licence holder is the
beating heart of our suicidally dysfunctional modern form of capitalism. The energy and banking giants have
become servants of mammon, not servants of society. Take the current crop of coal IPOs. The prospectuses,
barely mentioning carbon risk, are written by the same investment banks that gave us the credit crunch (yet
are back in their casinos today with barely a slapped wrist). In the run up to the credit crunch, they failed
society via catastrophic failure of risk assessment in their proprietary trading businesses. Now, in the run up to
the climate-and energy-crunches, they are failing society via catastrophic failure of risk assessment in their
advisory businesses. / Re-engineering this mess it is the challenge of our vocational lifetimes, for those with
the eyes to see. Our children and grandchildren depend on our success, should they aspire to inhabit a liveable
world.”138
Ecuadorian court orders Chvron to pay $8.6bn for damages dating back 40 years. Chevorn, no longer
active in Ecuador (where Texaco operated pre-merger), has brought racketeering charges in the US.139
Only 6 of 30 national carbon registries have re-opened for business, more than 3 weeks after
cyberthieves stole €50m of carbon allowances in Eusteren Europe before Brussels pulled the plug.140
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John Vidal assesses the reaction in the media, and from Sadad al-Husseini, to his wikileaks story.
The oil price didn’t move because he had said such things before. But “As Jeremy Leggett says in his blog, we
could be all "asleep at the wheel" on this one.”141
Charities will struggle as fewer, increasingly aged, people give than 30 years ago. So research by
Bristol University and the Cass Business School shows. In 1978 about a third (32%) of households gave to
charity each fortnight. Donors then fell away at a rate of 65,000 a year through to the end of the 1990s. Now,
little more than a quarter (28%) of households donate. But they are more generous, which has kept the total
flat – for the moment. After adjusting for inflation, the average weekly gift made by donor households has
increased over 30 years from £3.05 to £8.66. This outstrips the growth in total household spending.142
Did ExxonMobil acquire XTO Energy last year just so it could grow reserves? Barclays Capital poses this
question. ExxonMobil’s reserve replacement ratio would have been just 45% without the acquisition. This
highlights the “difficulty oil companies are having finding crude,” Sheila McNulty writes in the FT.143
Anti-government protests in Bahrain cause jitters in Saudi Arabia. A Shia majority is protesting rule by
a Sunni minority in Bahrain. Saudi’s Eastern Province, heart of the oil production infrastructure, is where the
15% Shia minority lives.144
Low-carbon economy investments will break even at $100 a barrel by 2020, Chris Huhne argues. The
UK Secretary of State for Energy and Environment includes clean coal and nuclear in this assessment.145
Co-operative Group launches an ethical operating plan. The aim is to set the standard for corporate
responsibility, emissions reductions and community involvement. Aims include doubling support for green
energy to £1bn, reducing carbon emissions in operations 35% by 2017, and having 90% of developing–world
primary commodities fairtrade-certified by 2020.146
Gazprom boss likens shale gas to the internet bubble “which first blew up enormously and then flattened
itself out to some rational and logical size.”147
More than 20 solar companies challenge UK government’s decision to review £360m in subsidies.
They have hired law firm Eversheds.148
Protests return to banks as Barclays reveals it paid just £113m UK tax on £11.6bn profits in 2009.
Activists plan to invade branches and demonstrate.149
Costs of the Nabucco pipeline double. A BP internal assessment now puts the cost at €14bn. Steel is a key
inflation factor.150
UN calls for 2% of worldwide income to be invested in the greening of economies. The investment
would pay off in jobs, cleaner air, energy efficiency savings, and avoided climate change. Supporters include
Obama and Hu Jintao.151
As BP suspends some ops in Libya, IEA says it has a year of public sticks if needed. Nervous times in
the Middle East. The IEA sits on 1.6bb of publically-held crude stocks …enough for 4mbd over 12 months.152
BP announces $7.2bn partnership with Reliance of India, in gas. Offshore blocks the size of New Zealand
may hold resource of 15 trillion cubic feet, Bod Dudley says. Indian government approval is not necessarily a
formality, the FT reports. The deal was signed in Downing Street.153
BP sells ageing North Sea assets valued at $1bn. This is part of the strategy to focus more on places with
a better chance of future growth, such as Russia and India. An analyst warns that BP may not see cash flow for
sometime. “So BP is repositioning for the next 20 years, [and] the stockmarket looks to the next one to two, if
that.”154
Deepwater Horizon oil spill "devastated" life on and near the seafloor, marine scientist says.
Samantha Joye of the University of Georgia tudies reports that a submersible found a layer, as much as 10cm
thick in places, of dead animals and oil. She disputes an assessment by BP's compensation fund that the Gulf of
Mexico will recover by the end of 2012. She says it may take a decade before the full effects are clear.155
Energy lobby attacks only increase interest in Gasland. The Energy in Depth campaign, including an effort
to get the film struck from the Oscar nomination list, is a PR dream for its producer.156
“Libyan chaos threatens to spark oil crisis”: FT. Libyan production is down 20%, and the oil price is $107,
the highest for two and a half years. The Saudis say they will make up the shortfall if necessary.
“If Libya revolts, Saudi Aarbia could be next:” FT.com. Quoting Platts specialist John Roberts, Energy
Source observes: “It seems now that people want more than just financial security and the stability that comes
with high oil revenues: they want freedom. And if they want that in Libya, which has a GDP-per-capita of
around $12,000, why shouldn’t they want the same in Saudi Arabia, whose income per head is only slightly
higher at $14,000 a year?”157
France launches nuclear industry overhaul. Sarkozy wants EDF and Areva to start co-operating, beginning
with a new mid-size reactor.158
“Oil could hit $220 a barrel on Libya and Algeria fears, warns Nomura”: Telegraph. This does not
factor in wider Gulf problems. Spare capacity would then return to the water thin margins seen during the first
Gulf War. “Speculative activities were largely not present” then, says a Nomura analyst. The price reaches $112
during the day. “Jeremy Leggett, a leader of the UK industry task force on peak oil and energy security, said
the Mid-East crisis "shows the extreme fragility of the global system. People don't realise how close we are to a
potential precipice if this unrest reaches critical mass in enough OPEC countries. Governments need to draw up
emergency plans and get cracking on proactive measures while we still have time," he said.”159
King Abdullah throws $36bn into his people as opposition calls a “day of rage” on March 11th.
Unemployment is above 10%. Activists for reform are quoted openly saying its reform not handouts that they
want.160
“Saudi ‘Royal gift’ fails to woo activists”: FT. The $25bn bung on social, unemployment and housing
benefits because they come with no talk of reform or democratic change. Dissent continues on social media
sites.161
Saudi oil cannot replace Libyan barrel for barrel. The latter is lighter sweeter crude. The former takes
longer to bring online.162
Three quarter of the world’s coral reefs are at risk from climate change, pollution and overfishing, says
a new report by the WRI and 25 other research institutes. By 2050 only about 15% of the world's coral will be
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in waters where the conditions are right for growth. Current climate projections suggest roughly half of the
world's reefs will experience coral bleaching by 2030 – and nearly 95% by 2050.163
UN: black carbon should be more of a target in climate abatement. Reducing black particles could cut
warming by 0.5C.164
“Saudis seek to calm oil panic”: FT. Oil nears $120. Gold nears a record high and economist say they fear a
dent in market confidence. The Saudis have not yet decided to lift production.165
Saudis hold talks with European refining groups amid talk of crisis and rationing. Goldman Sachs
analyst, Jeffrey Currie: "The market cannot accommodate another disruption, in our view, with the problems in
Libya potentially absorbing half of Opec's spare capacity. Although we still see contagion to the
large energy producers in the Gulf as relatively low, the stakes associated with further contagion are now much
higher, which creates even further upside risk to our price forecasts."166
Chinese oil facilities attacked in Libya: local camps “raided by gangsters.” There are 30,000 Chinese in the
country. FT: “There have already been signs of resentment in Libya at China’s growing economic clout in the
region. At the end of 2009, Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa said in an interview: “When we look at the
reality on the ground we find that there is something akin to a Chinese invasion of the African continent. This is
something that brings to mind the effects that colonialism had on the African continent.” But Gadaffi has used
Tianamen Squre as an example to justify his own repression., Libyan167
Avaaz fundraises to "blackout-proof" the ME protests with secure satellite modems and phones, tiny
video cameras, and portable radio transmitters, plus expert support teams on the ground: to enable activists to
broadcast live video feeds even during internet and phone blackouts (www.avaaz.org).
Oil-price danger point depends on central bank not tightening monetary policy: Ambrose EvansPritchard in the Telegraph. “The greatest threat to the global economy is not the oil shock itself but the risk that
central banks will commit a blunder, compounding the damage by tightening monetary policy at exactly the
wrong moment. For the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this would mean raising rates into the
teeth of the storm, as the ECB did with predictably disastrous consequences in July 2008. ….it is unwise to
depend so heavily on fuel sources nearing crunch point, or to transfer vast sums of money to rentier
theocracies. Jeremy Leggett from the UK industry’s task force on peak oil and energy security argues that we
risk repeating with oil what we did with financial uber-leverage: allowing a collosal problem to fester and then
metastasize. A ‘Manhattan Project’ would overcome this energy crisis very fast. It takes political will, and a
ruthless confrontation of vested interests.168
“Integrated assessment” climate models are “dangerously simplistic” says leading UK climate modeller
Kevin Anderson. In combining economics and climate they understaimate emissions and overestimate
technology. They offer “false hope.” He calculates that if we want to aim for a high chance of not exceeding a
2°C increase in global temperature by the end of the century, our energy emissions need to be cut by nearer
10% annually rather than the 2–4% that economists say is possible with a growing economy.169
Third fund pulls out of UK solar financing as a result of the accelerated feed-in tariff review, and the
uncertainties it imposes. Triplepoint was planning a £100m fund, which it has now suspended. Last week Matrix
suspended a VCT, and Ingenious closed its two VCTs. Others are reviewing their funds. 170 Bloomberg: Last
year, developers doubled the capacity of solar power generation in the U.K. to 66 megawatts, enough for 9,000
homes. That’s a fraction of the 16,800 megawatts installed in Germany, 3,700 megawatts in Spain and 2,500
megawatts in the U.S. Only one of last year’s 26,000 U.K. projects had a capacity greater than 50 kilowatts.”
Saudis lift output in effort to compensate for Libyan oil. Output is reportedly up to at least 9 mbd, from
8.6 in January. Ali Naimi, oil minister: “We have enough credence to tell you that we will meet any shortage. I
want this to be transmitted to the markets so people can sleep tonight.”171
“A system in shock spins from greed to fear”: John Plender in the FT. Stagflation looms, as in the
1970s. 172 The past five global recessions have all followed oil price spikes. 173 The fragile US recovery is
alreadyunder threat.174
BP directors fail to show up for TNK-BP board meeting. The oligarchs have proposed that TNK-BP be the
vehicle that partners with Rosneft. The four BP directors say they need more time to study the proposal.175
UkUncut activists take over 40 banks across Britain to set up creches, laundries, school classrooms,
libraries, homeless shelters, drama clubs, walk-in clinics, youth centres, job centres and leisure centres. Most
are branches of RBS and NatWest, but also Lloyds.176
Gas fracking much more dangerous than previously thought, & fluids poured in US river untested,
EPA documents obtained by the New York Times suggest. Each well can produce over a million gallons of highly
contaminated water. NYT: “With hydrofracking, a well can produce over a million gallons of wastewater that is
often laced with highly corrosive salts, carcinogens like benzene and radioactive elements like radium, all of
which can occur naturally thousands of feet underground. Other carcinogenic materials can be added to the
wastewater by the chemicals used in the hydrofracking itself. …The documents reveal that the wastewater,
which is sometimes hauled to sewage plants not designed to treat it and then discharged into rivers that supply
drinking water, contains radioactivity at levels higher than previously known, and far higher than the level that
federal regulators say is safe for these treatment plants to handle. … The E.P.A. has not intervened. In fact,
federal and state regulators are allowing most sewage treatment plants that accept drilling waste not to test for
radioactivity. And most drinking-water intake plants downstream from those sewage treatment plants in
Pennsylvania, with the blessing of regulators, have not tested for radioactivity since before 2006, even though
the drilling boom began in 2008. In other words, there is no way of guaranteeing that the drinking water taken
in by all these plants is safe. …There were more than 493,000 active natural-gas wells in the United States in
2009, almost double the number in 1990. Around 90 percent have used hydrofracking to get more gas flowing,
according to the drilling industry. Anywhere from 10 percent to 40 percent of the water sent down the well
during hydrofracking returns to the surface.177
Gunmen attack Iraq’s largest oil refinery, detonating bombs and forcing the larger of two units at the
facility, 155 miles from Baghdad, to shut down.178
Chernobyl needs a new roof costing £634m (€750m): UK urged to pay £43m (€50m) of it. The
Ukraine has already deployed €750 bn on a new roof, of which the UK contributed €53m. But the costs have
doubled. 25 years on from the accident, deaths are estimated at between 4,000 and 200,000.179
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“Citizens not serfs can save Saudi Arabia”: David Gardner in the FT. “There is a path forward, but only a
short time to take it. That is to move towards a more constitutional monarchy under the rule of law. If the alSaud treat their people as citizens rather than serfs they can build a counterweight to the deadweight of the
Wahhabi establishment, and lay a new and solid foundation stone for a modern kingdom, in tune with its
Islamic heritage but more at ease at home, in the region and the world.”180
Higher oil price threatens economic downturn, economists warn. The chief economist at HSBC is called
Stephen King. He warns of dark things if the oil price persists. This time, the fear is that supply lines are
disrupted, and with demand fragile, this is the “worst possible time.”181
First deepwater drilling permit issued in Gulf since Macondo spill. The beneficiary is Noble Petroleum.
The pace of permitting is still very slow.182
“Don’t expect autocratic oil to flow smoothly”: Nick Butler, ex BP exec, in the FT. “Twenty years ago,
two-thirds of world oil was produced in the country in which it was consumed. Now half – more than 40 million
barrels a day – is traded … For many years the west has taken for granted that authoritarian, family-based
regimes make reliable partners. Such trust in authoritarianism is tempting, but also dangerous. … It is surely
wiser to subsidise nuclear plants in Britain, than dictatorships in the Gulf.”183
Results of first fracking in the UK will be kept secret until 2015. Cuadrilla Resources are allowed to do
this under the terms of their licence, issued in 2007. Fracking could meet 10% of UK gas consumption, the
industry says. The Tyndall Centre says production levels equivalent to 10% of UK gas consumption would
require about 2,500-3,000 horizontal wells spread over some 140-400 square kilometres, drilled using some 27
to 113m tonnes of chemical-laden water.184
US oil production on track for a 25% increase by 2015, having been the highest level for almost a decade
in 2010: 7.5 mbd. All thanks to unconventional extraction techniques. Around half the consumption is imported
still.185
UK consumers can now pick up a solar panel while out grocery shopping: Sainsbury’s offer them as of
today, under a 5 year agreement with British Gas. A 2.1 kilowatt solar photovoltaic system costs from around
£10k ($16,310) to install (just under £5 per W), paying back as much as £22k pounds over 25 years. Plus
Rewards points of course.186
“Can’t afford to fix the brakes – got to pay for gas”: CNN Money. “It costs John Kunkle about $75 to fill
up the gas tank in his Dodge Ram. That's more than he can afford, so he's had to postpone fixing the brakes.
"It's really biting into my paycheck," says the 53-year-old who lives in Ellenton, Fla. "It's actually getting to
where it's not very safe." Nationwide, drivers spent $347 on gasoline in February, which is nearly 8.5% of
median income, according to the Oil Price Information Service. That's nearly 30% more than they spent in
February of 2010 -- and 74% more than two years ago, when they shelled out $200 on gas. / Still, gas
prices remain shy of the record high reached in July 2008, when the national average price for a gallon of
regular gasoline hit $4.11 and fuel accounted for 10% of consumer's income.187
Chris Huhne says the UK economy faces threat of a 70s style oil shock that would cost the UK economy
£45bn over 2 years, or so DECC economists calculate based on a $160 oil price. It would be “crazy” not to
prepare for a low carbon future now, he says. NB: Ofgem says £200bn investmnt will be needed to keep the
nation powered up by 2020. National Grid says installed capacity will need to rise from 75GW to 100 GW by
2030.188
George Soros calls for LSE rules to force oil companies to list payments to foreign governments: a
vital pro-democracy anti-corruption measures for these times, consistent with the Dodd-Frank Act passed in
July, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, and the Publish What You Pay Coalition Soros helped
launch in 2002.189
Mervyn King warns UK is at risk of another financial crisis, unless banks are reformed. This in an
interview with the Telegraph. They must stop trying to “simply maximise profits next week.” They routinely
exploit their customers. When it comes to takeovers, companies with good reputations have been “destroyed”
in the scramble for short term profit. “Why do banks in general want to pay bonuses?” Mr King asks. “It’s
because they live in a 'too big to fail’ world in which the state will bail them out on the downside.” King is in
favour of splitting retail from investment arms. Osborne is believed to oppose it.190
First protest in Riyadh as unrest builds in Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom braces itself for a “day of rage” a
week from now: in a state that bans protest and public displays of dissent.191
As US and UK sanctions stop their oil purchases from Libya, China and India continue to buy, and the
oil millions still flow to the Gaddafi regime.192
Investors grapple with three oil shock scenarios: Gaddafi falls quickly, Libyan disruption is protracted, and
contagion. FT: “There are plenty of candidates to give oil traders the jitters, from Oman, Yemen, Bahrain and
Algeria to Nigeria, the world’s eighth-largest exporter, due to hold elections in April. In this scenario, a spike in
prices is a certainty, with analysts’ forecasts ranging from $150 to $220 barrel. At the same time, most agree
the IEA would release strategic stocks, meaning volatility could be high. Investors have been protecting
themselves against such a scenario by buying options that profit if oil prices rise above $150 by December.
Were unrest to hit Saudi output, the spike could be sharper. “It’s the ultimate worst case scenario for the oil
markets,” says Mr Wittner. “This is when you can come up with pretty much any silly number you want.”193
Oil’s volatility energises physical oil traders as differentials widen and trading opportunities soar,
…provided they can get credit. For example, there is a big premium now on high quality, low sulphur light. FT:
“The profitability of the world’s largest oil trading houses is likely to rise significantly in 2011. ….The only
downside to the current situation is financing cost. With oil prices surging to nearly $120 a barrel, the highest
level in 2½ years, traders will need more credit. But banks appear more than happy to continue extending
credit as long as they see profits.194
Another climate research satellite fails to reach orbit. The Glory satellite was due to monitor the effects of
areosols in the atmosphere. A big setback for climate research.195
Republicans have launched greatest assault against environmental protection in US history,
environmental campaigners say. They have launched bills in both houses of congress to strip Obama of his
powers to act on climate change. And such measures extend right across the environmental spectrum.196
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Saudis mobilise 10,000 troops in their north-eastern Shia provinces. Their buses clog the highways into
Damman and other cities.197
UK ministers will be ordered to adopt urgent measures to wean the nation off oil. Chris Huhne, fearing
oil will hit £2 a litre on further ME unrest (it is £1.40 in some places now) will unveil a national carbon plan this
week, aimed “at getting off the carbon hook.” NGOs including Greenpeace will be asked to play a monitoring
role.198
Fears of Saudi contagion trigger Gulf stock market. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock index is down 11% in
the lst 2 days. Dabai’s is at a 7 year low.199
“Opec members rush to raise oil output”: FT headline. Kuwait, UAE and Nigeria join Saudi Arabia as Brent
hits $118. What a difference a loss of a million barrels a day (Libya at the moment) makes.200
Saudi Arabia may be pumping as much as 9.4 mbd, but is keeping quiet because of OPEC politics:
they are acting unilaterally because they have no time to confer. Their OPEC quota is 8/1 mbd. Javier Blas in
the FT: “If the kingdom is pumping 9.2m-9.3m b/d, as my source says, or 9.4m b/d as PIW reports, Riyadh’s
spare capacity has fallen to less than 3m b/d and could, on some estimates, be as low as 2.5m b/d. Production
in the range of 9.2m-9.4m b/d would also indicate that the kingdom is already pumping as much as it can of
premium quality light, low sulphur oil, with remaining capacity in the form of lower quality heavier, sulphurous
crude oil.”201
“The world’s economic fate now hangs on the success of Wahabi oppression.” Ambrose EvansPritchard, speaking of the Saudi Day of Rage in two days time, in the Telegraph. The reason is that spare
capacity is becoming wafer thin, as in 2008.202
“It looks more and more as though Saudi Arabia may be bluffing about its ability to make up for lost
production”: Izabella Kaminski in the FT, reporting a Goldman Sachs analysis of spare capacity draw down. 203
The door is closing on opportunity to achieve climate goals: Birol and Stern in the FT. “We must
decarbonise the power sector too, which today accounts for 40 per cent of energy-related emissions. The
problem is that, as the IEA has shown, 80 per cent of projected emissions in 2020 are already “locked-in”, as a
result of power plants that already exist or are under construction. This limits room for manoeuvre and
underlines the sense of urgency for action…. “For the moment our climate goals remain attainable, but the door
is closing.”204
Regulators soften key parts of the latest EU bank stress tests. They will test a 15% fall in equity
markets, far below the number used in the ridiculed 2010 tests.205
“Oil nightmares: truly terrifying”: Lex in FT. “After Iran’s revolution and the subsequent sanctions and war
with Iraq, output of 6m b/d plunged by two-thirds – even today it only hovers around 4m. Venezuela’s 2002
strike nearly halted output for two months. Today’s production of 2.6m b/d is three-quarters the previous peak,
even though new fields have been developed. Oilfields cannot be switched on and off like a light bulb without
consequences, sometimes permanent.”206
Saudi is building up stockpiles of oil outside the Kingdom, in effort to keep world supplied. This it has
been doing for six years, particularly in the Caribbean. New stockpiles are being established in Egypt,
Netherlands and Okinawa in Japan, oil minister Naimi says. He does not say how much. Industry sources
estimate 4 mb in Okinawa. He says Saudi spare capacity is 3.5 mbd, which given 12.5 capacity would confime 9
mbd production. 207
Exxon boss Tillerson chastises BP’s Dudley for saying Macondo has implications for the whole oil
industry. At his annual meeting with analysts, he says it was a BP mismanagement issue.208
McKinsey partner admits insider trading on Wall Street, and a former head stands accused …while he was
on the board of Goldman Sachs.209
Oil price surges $2 minutes after reports that Saudi police disprsed a demonstration in Qatif with
rubber bullets and percussion bombs. Only 300 people were involved.210
Market jitters as Spain credit rating downgraded. The euor falls against the dollar and stock markets fall.
The 17 nation Eurozone governments hold a summit 24-25 March.211
FUKUSHIMA DAY ONE: Nuclear power emergency called by PM after Japanese earthquake. 11 plants
shut down automatically. Post-closure problems reported at Fukushima. Fire breaks out at at another.212
FUKUSHIMA DAY 2: Explosion at Fukushima nuclear power plant. Containment wall at one of 4 reactors at
one of two sites destroyed. Cesium detected. TEPCO says it has lost the ability to control pressure at some of
the reactors on both sites.
“Nuclear power is the reason for the new energy regulations” Catherine Mitchell in the Guardian.
“The government's energy market revamp is for one reason only – to build more nuclear power plants.” “The
four measures … are a rising carbon floor price; a contract-for-difference feed-in-tariff (CfD-Fit); a capacity
payment mechanism and an emission performance standard. … The CfD-Fit will mean someone – almost
certainly the government, perhaps outsourced to an agency – has to commit to pay a premium for low-carbon
electricity, whether it be generated by a nuclear power plant, a demonstration coal plant with carbon capture
and storage (CCS) or renewable energy. Energy consumers will end up shouldering the cost via their utility
bills. It should be noted that this move will seriously damage if not destroy, the market. It effectively rolls back
the years to a level of state involvement not seen since before privatisation in 1990. … The third measure – a
capacity mechanism – is there to compensate the owners of coal and gas power plants for providing the backup supply that ensures the lights stay on. … The carbon price support (CPS), commonly known as the carbon
price floor, which will increase to £70 a tonne of carbon in 2030, as an incentive to generate low-carbon power.
If the carbon price via the existing European Union Emission Trading Scheme is lower than the CPS, companies
must pay the difference to the government. …. The consultation is also lacking something. If it were really
about reform, then reducing energy demand would be at its centre, yet it is all but missing. … The government
wants nuclear power but cannot be seen to subsidise it, so it has had to set up this set of convoluted measures.
Why the government wants nuclear power so badly, given all these unwanted outcomes and given nuclear can,
at best, only provide a small proportion of the low-carbon energy needed is a mystery.”213
Saudi day of rage fizzles under high security and fears of manipulation by extremists. Eman Al
Nafjan: “During the week there was also a huge campaign to discourage demonstrations. Saudis were
bombarded on TV, in SMS messages and online with rumours that the demonstrations were an Iranian
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conspiracy, and that those who went out in the streets would be punished with five years' prison and fines in
the thousands of riyals.”214
FUKUSHIMA DAY 3: Japanese Cabinet Secretary says No. 3 reactor"partial meltdown possible." This is
more serious than 1. No. 3 uses MOX fuel with plutonium in it.
Japanese ex nuclear plant designer posits threat of "multiple meltdowns". Another plant has a cooling
pump shutdown. The difference between a partial meltdown and a full meltdown is huge. A full meltdown of fuel
rods, which can occur within hours if the core is exposed, might breach the containment vessel, and would leak
far more radiation.215
Angela Merkel says this is a turning point for nuclear in the world. Joseph Lieberman says the US must
review what has happened in Japan before proceeding.216
Police and protestors clash in Bahrain while hundreds rally in Saudi Arabia, seeking the release of
political prisoners arrested without charge. The protest in Riyadh, a day after nobody protested on the “Day of
Rage”, was peaceful.217
Bahrain asks neighbours for help after police are routed in a pitched battle with protestors. Fears of
civil war between the Sunni minority government and supporters, and Shia.218
“Oil price surge leaves UK economy teeting on the brink of disaster”: Andrew Clark in the Observer.
P”etrol prices in Britain hit £6 a gallon, or 132p a litre, last week, which, according to the AA's Edmund King,
marks "the point at which the wheels start to come off mobility in 21st century Britain". Filling up a family car
costs about £80 – a substantial chunk of the average gross weekly wage of £499. Supermarket chain Morrisons
became the latest British business to squeal with pain last week, declaring that the fuel price has sapped
consumers' spending power by £400m in a year.”219
FUKUSHIMA DAY 4: Reactor 3 at Fukushima Daiichi blows off its containment roof. Reactor No.2 loses
all coolant. US ships detect radioactivity offshore.
Radioactive releases could last months, US and Japanese nuclear experts say. The officials battling to
stop full meltdowns now have no choice but to vent radioactive air because as seawater is fed in and boils they
have to “feed and bleed”. Helicoptors are picking up radiactivity.
"Safety fears could kill (nuclear power's) revival – at least in the west." FT editorial. Public support
collapsed after both Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. 220 Nick Butler: 400 nuclear plants were being planned
around the world. Many will now be put on hold.221
An estimated one in five nuclear reactors are in areas of significant seismic activity. As though that is
the only risk factor.222
Germany & Switzerland to reassess safety of their reactors with a view to reducing reliance on them.
The Swiss energy minister says Switzerland will suspend plans to build and replace nuclear plants. No new ones
will be permitted until safety standards have been reviewed in the 5 existing plants. Swiss authorities recently
approved 3 sites for new nuclear power stations. Merkel says Germany will suspend the extension of the
running times of German nuclear power plants (decided recently) for three months to allow for a thorough
examination of the safety standards of the 17 German nuclear power plants.223
Sometime after 11pm: Fukushima 2 explodes, potentially rupturing containment vessel. Cabinet
Secretary: “Now we are talking about levels (of radiation) that can affect human health”.224
During the night: Reactor 4 catches fire (it had been closed for maintenance!). IAEA suspects hydrogen
buildup from stored fuel rods. Fire is put out.
What will spark the next Fukushima? asks John Vidal. “Time to he question now is whether the industry
can be trusted anywhere. If this industry were a company, its shareholders would have deserted it years ago.
In just one generation it has killed, wounded or blighted the lives of many millions of people and laid waste to
millions of square miles of land. In that time it has been subsidised to the tune of trillions of dollars and it will
cost hundreds of billions more to clean up and store the messes it has caused and the waste it has created. It
has had three catastrophic failures now in 25 years and dozens more close shaves. Its workings have been
marked around the world by mendacity, cover-ups, secrecy and financial incompetence.”225
“Solar power industry set to lock horns with the state”: Independent. “Jeremy Leggett, executive
chairman of Solarcentury, said: "It beggars belief that a government elected on a promise of being the
'greenest ever' should be rushing to cut the solar PV tariff and kill off one of its very few employment success
stories".”226
The sad tale of the Tory and LibDem U-turns on the UK solar feed-in tariff. Business Green: “It is an
open secret among green NGOs that former energy and climate change secretary Ed Miliband faced
considerable opposition from some Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) officials over his
proposals for a feed-in tariff modelled on the incentive schemes successfully pioneered in Germany. He
eventually managed to get his plan off the ground, but the initial proposals would have limited feed-in tariff
incentives to microgeneration installations with no more than 50kW of capacity. / It was at this point that the
Conservatives and Lib Dems led a successful campaign calling on the government to increase the scheme's
ambition and extend it so that it could support larger, community-scale projects capable of generating up to
5MW of energy. / One reason solar developers feel so betrayed is that they recall face-to-face meetings with
David Cameron when he was in opposition at which the Conservative leader said he not only supported feed-in
tariffs, but wanted to make the scheme more generous in order to accelerate the rollout of community-scale
projects. Similarly, they also point to the fact that Miliband's successor, Lib Dem energy and climate change
secretary Chris Huhne, publicly endorsed the We Support Solar campaign in the run-up to the introduction of
feed-in tariffs, calling for a 10 pence increase in incentives with a view to trebling the amount of renewable
energy installed under the scheme.”227
Saudi troops enter Bahrain. FT editorial: “This is an escalation that pushes a mass reform movement into
the arms of revolutionaries. It is also a failure of nerve and error of judgment that could sentence the Gulf to
open-ended conflict, whatever the short-term outcome in Bahrain. ….The Saudi intervention raises the stakes.
It guarantees radicalisation, when reform is all most Bahraini and Gulf citizens want. And it invites Iran and its
proxies such as Hizbollah, which barely have a toehold on the Arabian peninsula, to come charging in.”228
FUKUSHIMA DAY 5: High radiactivity at Fukushima: third explosion breaches containment. BBC: “It
appears that for the first time, the containment system around one of the Fukushima Daiichi reactors has been
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breached. Officials have referred to a possible crack in the suppression chamber of reactor 2 - a large
doughnut-shaped structure, also known as the torus, below the reactor housing. That would allow steam,
containing radioactive substances, to escape continuously. This is the most likely source of the high
radioactivity readings seen near the site. However, an alternative possible source is the fire in reactor 4 building
- believed to have started when a pool storing old fuel rods dried up.”229
Panic buying in Tokyo. Embassies tell their nationals to leave. As yet only minute levels of radioactivity
have been detected in the capital, 150 km from the plant.230
Experts had long criticised the designs of the stricken reactors: if the cooling failed the containment
vessel would probably burst. NYT: “In 1972, Stephen H. Hanauer, then a safety official with the Atomic Energy
Commission, recommended that the Mark 1 system be discontinued because it presented unacceptable safety
risks. Among the concerns cited was the smaller containment design, which was more susceptible to explosion
and rupture from a buildup in hydrogen — a situation that may have unfolded at the Fukushima Daiichi plant.
Later that same year, Joseph Hendrie, who would later become chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission, a successor agency to the atomic commission,said the idea of a ban on such systems was
attractive. But the technology had been so widely accepted by the industry and regulatory officials, he said,
that “reversal of this hallowed policy, particularly at this time, could well be the end of nuclear power.”231
Merkel shuts 7 German nuclear reactors for 3 months while considering what to do about possible life
extensions. A government decided a decade ago to shut all 17 German nuclear plants by 2021, but Merkel's
administration decided to extend their lives by an average 12 years, a decision suspended for three months
yesterday.232
Huhne says the enquiry he is conducting may affect investment in UK nuclear. Dr Mike Weightman, the
chief nuclear inspector, will conduct it. About a quarter of UK generation comes offline in the next decade as old
nuclear and coal plants are shut down.233
Radiation spike forces Tepco to withdraw reactor team. Fire breaks out in Fukushima Daiichi 4 after
fuel rods exposed in storage. Temperature rises in reactors 5 & 6 (which like 4, were offline).234 Timeline.235
FUKUSHIMA DAY 6: Helicopters drop water on reactors but are forced back as radiation levels rise.
China puts reactor approvals on hold.236
Saudi forces forcibly disband Bahraini demontrations in rout with “echoes of Tiananmen massacre.”
237
They kill two and wound hundreds. In Libya, the rebels are being driven back to Banghazi. The autocrats are
back in the driving seat in the Arab world.238
Cost of gas, coal, and carbon permits have risen sharply since Friday. The carbon price is because Eon
and RWE will need to burn more coal after Merkel’s decision to shut 7 reactors. The uranium price has fallen
25%.239
“World energy crisis as nuclear and oil both go wrong”: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph. “The
existential crisis for the world's nuclear industry could hardly have come at a worse moment. The epicentre of
the world's oil supply is disturbingly close to its own systemic crisis as the Gulf erupts in conflict.” Iran my
choose to wage a proxy war with armed insurgents. The world has 442 reactors, with 65 under construction.
They generate 372 GW, covering 13.8pc of global electricity. The share is higher in the rich world: France 75pc,
Belgium 52pc, Ukraine 47pc, Korea 35pc, Japan 29pc, the US 20pc, and the UK 18pc. In China it is just 2pc.240
UN scientists predict radiation plume will hit Aleutians tomorrow and California Friday. No levels
quoted. The US Nuclear Regulatory Agency expects “miniscule” levels.241
“Nuclear power: too hot to handle”: FT. Ed Crools and Sylvia Pfeiffer suspect the industry will enter a twodecade downturn akin the one after Chernobyl.242
500 bone marrow transplant centres across 27 European countries put on alert to treat Fukushima 50
and others if needed. The European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation offered to treat 200 to 300
patients if necessary.
Solar PV costs falling exponentially: grid parity begins in America in 2015, half price of coal in 20
years. Scientific American: “The sun strikes every square meter of our planet with more than 1,360 watts of
power. Half of that energy is absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected back into space. 700 watts of power, on
average, reaches Earth’s surface. Summed across the half of the Earth that the sun is shining on, that is 89
petawatts of power. By comparison, all of human civilization uses around 15 terrawatts of power, or one sixthousandth as much. In 14 and a half seconds, the sun provides as much energy to Earth as humanity uses in a
day. … If humanity could capture one tenth of one percent of the solar energy striking the earth – one part in
one thousand - we would have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today, with
almost no greenhouse gas emissions. … There is at most 30 gigawatts of solar generating capacity deployed
today, or about 0.2 percent of all energy production. … Averaged over 30 years, the trend is for an annual 7
percent reduction in the dollars per watt of solar photovoltaic cells. … If the 7 percent decline in costs continues
(and 2010 and 2011 both look likely to beat that number), then in 20 years the cost per watt of PV cells will be
just over 50 cents (it is $3 now). …. What does the continual reduction in solar price per watt mean for
electricity prices and carbon emissions? Historically, the cost of PV modules (what we’ve been using above) is
about half the total installed cost of systems. The rest of the cost is installation. Fortunately, installation costs
have also dropped at a similar pace to module costs. If we look at the price of electricity from solar systems in
the U.S. and scale it for reductions in module cost, we get this: The cost of solar, in the average location in the
U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9
years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices
will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts
of America. / 10 years later, in 2030, solar electricity is likely to cost half what coal electricity does today. …
The exponential trend in solar watts per dollar has been going on for at least 31 years now. If it continues for
another 8-10, which looks extremely likely, we’ll have a power source which is as cheap as coal for electricity,
with virtually no carbon emissions. If it continues for 20 years, which is also well within the realm of scientific
and technical possibility, then we’ll have a green power source which is halfthe price of coal for electricity.243
FUKUSHIMA DAY 7: The battle to cool the reactors, and the exposed fuel storage pond, continues.
More foreign governments advise their nationals to leave Japan. Tokyo faces up to blackouts and rationing. The
dogged heroisim of the Fukushima 50 becomes ever clearer.244
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EDF's de Rivaz: "my determination to press ahead is undimmed ....what Britain needs is nuclear." All
the industry has to do is work harder to keep the public’s trust.245
Oil price jumps to $117 on fears over Libya and Bahrain, after the UN Security Council votes through a
no-fly zone in Libya.246
All Japan’s wind farms survive both earthquake and tsunami. Even one semi-offshore 300 km from the
epicenter.247
FUKUSHIMA DAY 8: Japanese government raises status of nuclear disaster to 5 on the 7 point INRE
scale, equal to Three Mile Island. Says the situation remains “very grave.”248
Head of the IAEA urges Japan to give more information on the “race against time”. Trucks continue to
douse the reactors and radiation flutuates wildly on the site.249
The disaster is bad – but much of the reaction is irrational: Joseph Cirincione in Foreign Policy. e.g.
Potassium iodide pills have been flying off the shelves in California over fears that the radiation will cross the
Pacific… In China, stores are selling out of iodized salt, as people frantically hoard it in the mistaken belief that
it will counteract radiation. … “The latest available data shows that water levels inside reactors 1, 2, and 3
have fallen to cover only about half then length the fuel rods, allowing them to overheat and begin to crack.
Reactor 4 does not have fuel in its core. These three reactors contain about 200 metric tons of lightly enriched
uranium; reactor 3 also contains plutonium fuel. The cores are beginning to melt. In a full meltdown, this
molten fuel could drip down, burning through the steel reactor vessel and possibly breaching the concrete
containment vessel -- the last line of defense before a large radioactive release. Based on radiation detection by
monitors deployed by the Comprehensive-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization, it does not appear that this has yet
occurred.”250
DECC reveals crippling cuts to UK solar feed-in tariff. Business Green: “Under tariffs currently due to
come into effect next month, solar installations with between 10kw and 100kw capacity would received
32.9p/kWh through the feed-in tariff scheme, while larger installations with between 100kw and 5MW capacity
would receive 30.7/kWh. However, under the proposals contained in the consultation installations with 50kW to
150kW will receive 19p/kWh, mid-sized installations with 150kW to 250kW capacity will receive 15p/kWh, and
solar farms with between 250kW and 5MW will receive just 8.5p/kWh. If adopted the proposals would mean a
large rooftop installation on a school or office with 100kW capacity would see available incentives cut 42 per
cent, while solar farms with up to 5MW such as many of those planned in the south west will see incentives
slashed by 72 per cent. ….Jeremy Leggett, executive chairman of Solarcentury, accused ministers of betraying
an industry at a time when they also said they were committed to boosting renewable energy capacity and
creating green jobs.”251
Shell shocked UK solar industry vows to fight government cuts. Solar industry slams government
"betrayal", threatens legal action and high-profile campaign to save incentives.252
Solar feed-in tariff U-turn marks another betrayal by the 'greenest government ever.' No renewables
company or investor will easily trust this government again, says Jeremy Leggett.253
FUKUSHIMA DAY 9: Tepco hesitated to use seawater because it wanted to protect its assets, losing
vital time to cool reactors.254
Tepco MD weeps as finally the company admits the Fukushima nuclear accident could kill people.
The reactors may have to be bired under concrete, as at Chernobyl.255
Trace amounts of radioactive iodine found in Tokyo tap water. Contaminated spinach found 65 miles
south of the plant.256
Exhausted workers at the Fukushima plant finally succeed in bringing a power cable to the plant,
raising prospect that they can now pump water. Further cabling is needed onsite before switching on. Observer:
"Hollow rods made of zirconium hold each reactor's uranium fuel pellets in place," said Professor Andrew
Sherry, director of the Dalton Nuclear Institute in Manchester. "When temperatures rise too much, that
zirconium starts to react with the reactor's water. This chemical reaction raises temperatures even further.
Hydrogen is also produced. When this hydrogen exploded, it destroyed the buildings that act as each reactor's
outer protective shell." They have also attached diesel generators to reactors 5 and 6.257
Japanese government raises radiation safety limit for the Fukushima 300. Observer: “A team of about
300 workers – wearing masks, goggles and protective suits sealed with duct tape and known as the Fukushima
50 because they work in shifts of 50-strong groups – have captured the attention of the Japanese who have
taken heart from the toil inside the wrecked atom plant. …. On Wednesday, the government raised the
cumulative legal limit of radiation that the Fukushima workers could be exposed to from 100 to 250
millisieverts. That is more than 12 times the annual legal limit for workers dealing with radiation under British
law.”258
Huhne says UK nuclear could now bcome unviable. In an interview with the Observer he says: "Globally,
this undoubtedly casts a shadow over the renaissance of the nuclear industry. That is blindingly obvious."259
US Supreme Court hearing of US states vs electric power companies begins today. NYT editorial
18.4.11: In court, the utilities say regulation should be done by the EPA, not the courts. On Capitol Hill, they
and the Republicans push to end all greenhouse regulation.
FUKUSHIMA DAY 10: “Is nuclear power dead and buried? Japan’s crisis changes the sector forever.”
Margareto Pagano in the Independent. “Jeremy Leggett, one of nuclear power's fiercest critics who also runs
one of the fastest growing energy firms, Solar Century, thinks the nuclear sector is dead. What's more, he
predicts a devastating energy crisis unless the Government moves swiftly to build up all energy sources as
alternatives to sky-high and volatile Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies.
/ "This is a World War II scenario,"
he says. "We need an emergency war cabinet appointing an army to help people conserve energy, invest in
solar and all other sensible alternatives. We've got to build the new Spitfire." / Maybe this crisis could be just
the trigger we need to force through policies to build up a self-sufficient energy economy – necessity has
always been the mother of invention. / None of us can call what will emerge from Japan's tragedy but there
will be lessons for us to learn, and perhaps the first of these is to listen to sensible nuclear naysayers – like Mr
Leggett.”260
Tepco must be held to account and may be nationalised: FT editorial. “….when all is said and done,
Tepco – and its shareholders – must be held to account for the country’s worst-ever nuclear crisis. Tepco has
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21.3.11.
22.3.11.
23.3.11.
been too cosy with its regulators. It has abused its de facto monopoly position to cut corners. In 2003, it was
forced to close all 17 of its reactors, including the six at Fukushima, after it was found to have falsified safety
data. A few years later, its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant was rocked by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake. The company
later admitted that the plant, Japan’s biggest, had not been built to withstand an earthquake of anything like
that strength.”261
Tepco faces its “BP moment”: Terry Macalister in the Guardian. “It was severely criticised after the 2007
earthquake in the Niigata Chuetsu-Oki area when it was forced to shut down a plant, admitting that it had not
been designed to cope with such tremors. That plant has never reopened. Five years earlier, Tepco was found
to have falsified nuclear safety data at least 200 times between 1977 and 2002. All 17 of the company's boiling
water reactors were shut down for inspections after the government provided evidence that Tepco had been
concealing incidents. This forced the president, Nobuya Minami, and a number of board members to step down.
It was 2005 before the firm was allowed to restart all its reactors.”
Masked soldiers maintain crackdown in Bahrain, surrounding hospitals and patroling to enforce
martial law. Hospitals had become a safe haven for unarmed protestors, injured or not. Four protestors have
been killed so far.262
Oil companies fear nationalisation in Libya should Gaddafi prevail.263 100 cruise missiles were lanhed
against his forces yesterday – not just air defence, but ground forces outside Banghazi and his compound.
“Why Fukushima made me stop worrying and love nuclear power”: George Monbiot in the Guardian. “Japan's
disaster would weigh more heavily if there were less harmful alternatives. Atomic power is part of the mix.” “As
a result of the disaster at Fukushima, I am no longer nuclear-neutral. I now support the technology. …Atomic
energy has just been subjected to one of the harshest of possible tests, and the impact on people and the
planet has been small. The crisis at Fukushima has converted me to the cause of nuclear power.”264
FUKUSHIMA DAY 11: Many of the “nuclear samurai” at Fukushima are in fact unskilled labourers:
amateurs hired from the local populace.265
Nuclear professor says Fukushima changes everything. Rob Socolow of Princeton felt he could explain
away Three Mile Island as an industry’s teething problems and Chernobyl as a Soviet problem. But “I can find
no escape from Fukushima Daiichi. Words I hoped never to read in a news report, like loss of coolant accident
(LOCA), exposed core, hydrogen explosion: Here they are. Except for those who can identify ways to contribute
directly to the management of the disaster, we scientists have only one job right now -- to help governments,
journalists, students, and the man and woman on the street understand in what strange ways we have changed
their world. / We must explain, over and over, the concept of "afterheat," the fire that you can't put out, the
generation of heat from fission fragments now and weeks from now and months from now, heat that must be
removed. Journalists are having such a hard time communicating this concept because it is so unfamiliar to
them and nearly everyone they are writing for. Every layman feels that every fire can be put out.”266
George Monbiot converts to pro-nuclear based on the Fukushima experience, and his view that "the
impact on people and the planet has been small."267
FUKUSHIMA DAY 12: Setback as smoke and steam seen rising from two Fukushima reactors. Meanwhile
abnormal radiation levels reported in tapwater, food and sea water.268
UK support for nuclear drops 12%. Business Green: “37 per cent said they were now more likely to oppose
the building of new nuclear power stations in the UK and 44 per cent said they were worried about the safety of
nuclear power plants here. … The poll, which was conducted by GFK NOP shows a drop of 12 per cent in
support for nuclear power to 35 per cent compared with a similar poll conducted by Ipsos Mori in 2008, 2009
and 2010. Opposition to the technology rose nine per cent to 28 per cent.”269
US support for nuclear power drops further an after Three Mile Island. Only 43% will support new
building, down 15% from 57% in 2008 (highest level for 3 decades, at a time of high gas prices), a CBS poll
shows. In 1977 it was 69%, but after TMI in 1979 it fell to 46%, and after Chernobyl in 1986 it fell to 34%.270
US public more supportive of renewable investments as a result of Japan crisis. A Civil Society
Institute poll from March 15-16 shows 58 percent of respondents less supportive of nuclear in light of the crisis
in Japan, while 24 percent said they are more supportive. The Hill: “Asked if they more or less supportive of
“using clean renewable energy resources — such as wind and solar — and increased energy efficiency as an
alternative to more nuclear power,” 76 percent of the public said they were more supportive and 13 percent
said they were less supportive. Meanwhile, 53 percent said it would support a moratorium on new nuclear
power plants if energy efficiency and renewable energy could meet the country’s energy needs. Forty-one
percent said they would not support such a ban on new plants. ….. And in a poll result that underscores the
longstanding, not-in-my-backyard concerns about nuclear power, 67 percent of Americans would oppose the
construction of a new nuclear plant within 50 miles of their residence.”271
UAE will conduct a “very thorough review” of licence applications for two nuclear reactors. So says
the independent regulator.272
Safety breaches at UK nuclear reactors. Guardian: “EDF Energy the company that runs Britain's nuclear
power stations, has been reprimanded by government inspectors after a series of safety blunders at reactors in
Scotland. Two reactors at Torness in East Lothian have suffered failures in electricity supplies, several
"unplanned shutdowns", and a seaweed blockage. … French-owned EDF Energy admitted that it had not
followed the correct procedures, but insisted that there had been no danger to the public. A report posted
online by the UK government's Nuclear Installations Inspectorate (NII) discloses that there were two significant
safety "events" at Torness in the last three months of 2010. "Correct operational procedures appear not have
been observed," says the report.”273
FUKUSHIMA DAY 13: Tepco evacuates nuclear plant as grey smoke pours from reactor 3: the second
time on 3 days that work has been halted. Power had been restored to control rooms for all reactors.
Some of the most difficult and dangerous jobs lie ahead for the Fukushima 50, former nuclear workers
warn: some two weeks of draining water and venting gas, all radioactive, from valves difficult to access.274
Radioactive iodine twice the acceptable level for children in Tokyo drinking water. Authorities warn
they should not drink it. The list of contaminated produce now includes spinach, komatsuna leaves, cabbage,
cauliflower and broccoli, for all of which shipments have been suspended.275
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24.3.11.
Tepco taps Japan’s bank for $25bn as its clean-up costs rise. Meanwhile smoke continues to pour from
No. 3 reactor, and the source is unknown as yet.276
Tepco stocked Fukushima Daiichi spent fuel ponds beyond design capacity and failed to carry out
mandatory checks as fuel rods piled up. This over a ten year period, Tepco documents show. Guardian: “The
revelations will add to pressure on Tepco to explain why, under its cost-cutting chief executive Masataka
Shimizu, it opted to save money by storing the spent fuel on site rather than invest in safer storage options. /
The firm already faces scrutiny over why it waited so long to pump seawater into the stricken reactors and,
according to a report in the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper last week, turned down US offers of help to cool the
reactors shortly after the disaster.”277
Management of Tepco has been “plagued by scandal” for years: Der Spiegel. The Tepco President in
2003, Sunehisa Katsumata: "The engineers were so confident in their knowledge of nuclear power that they
came to hold the erroneous belief that they would not have to report problems to the national government as
long as safety was maintained … they went as far as to delete factual data and falsify inspection and repair
records."278
Russia sanction a 15% increase in domestic electricity prices in 2011, and deregulates industrial
electricity market completely.279
Arctic sea ice maximum ties equal lowest with 2006. It appeared to reach its maximum extent for the
year on March 7, marking the beginning of the melt season. NSIDC will release a detailed analysis of 2010 to
2011 winter sea ice conditions during the second week of April.280
“Could the budget have been much worse for the green agenda?”: FT.com. 1. CCS: No new money: the
first phase was already decided. The second phase will have to funded from the carbon floor price. And that
won’t be enough, as Osborne said. 2. The carbon floor price: £16 by 2013 and £30 by 2020. But that is what
traders were expecting anyway. No new inncentive to invest. 3. Green investment bank: no lending until 2015.
4. Cut in fuel duty. This brings great ire from NGOs.281
The Green Investment Bank is attacked by all sides as inadequate: not just campaigners but business
leaders and investors. Guardian: “Guy Shrubsole of the Public Interest Research Centre said this was not
enough. According to PIRC research, the UK devoted £12.6bn to green investment in 2009-10, which was less
than 1% of GDP and less than half of the sum needed annually to reform the UK's energy infrastructure and
meet greenhouse gas targets. PIRC found it was little more than the UK spends annually on perfumes and
cosmetics.”282
UK budget is a “betrayal of our environment and our future”: Caroline Lucas. Acid tests: “- The green
investment bank: This should have been the key to unlocking the £450bn in finance for renewable
energy needed in the next 15 years. Instead, by creating a bank that cannot borrow, its impact will be limited
to the original £3bn funding. / Transport: Taxing the excess profits of North Sea oil companies is welcome;
but the revenue should have been used to protect rural bus services, which are even more crucial to isolated
communities and the poorest in society than the cost of fuel. / Environmental taxes: Despite pledging more
"green taxes", scrapping the planned rise in air passenger duty will reduce revenue from environmental taxes
by £145m. It will also encourage more people to holiday abroad, hitting UK resorts. / Carbon floor prices: At
£30 a tonne, the new levy on carbon will not promote much low-carbon energy, but it will give nuclear power
companies a windfall subsidy of between £1.3bn and £3bn – paid for by the "hard-pressed families" that
Osborne claims he wants to help.
/
Zero-carbon homes: The chancellor has changed the rules so that
supposedly "zero-carbon" homes would in fact create carbon emissions for years to come. It will also
undermine many community energy schemes.”
FUKUSHIMA DAY 14: Solar and wind energy projects excluded from tax relief investment schemes so
soon after proposing cuts to subsidies for solar installations: a "systematic attack" on the renewables sector,
industry experts say. Previously eligible solar and wind projects will now be excluded from the Enterprise
Investment Scheme (EIS) and Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs) from April 2012, removing a potentially vital
revenue stream. Green Business: “The EIS offers investors tax relief if they provide investment to certain
qualifying industries, promising instant returns and lower levels of risk. The scheme works alongside Venture
Capital Trusts (VCTs), investment companies that enjoy special status in return for putting 70 per cent of their
assets into firms that would qualify for the EIS. ….James Vaccaro, managing director of Triodos bank's
renewables division, said the move was not surprising but potentially spelled disaster for community-sized
projects. "Anything over 50kW [solar capacity] – unless it's on the books now – is dead or will die," he told
BusinessGreen. "We would have done large-scale solar and now we're not going to do it. The investors would
have been 4,000 individuals who don't have solar compliant roofs and it would have attracted a lower level of
subsidy [for the Treasury] than if they all did it as individuals." / Katie Moore, who runs The Solar Club, a
community whose members are planning to invest in a solar project, said removing solar from the scheme was
"a kick in the teeth" for the group. "We're still waiting to hear from our investors on whether or not they will
put money in," she said. "This means instead of a 8.5 per cent return it goes down to four per cent. You can
make almost as much through an ISA. This is going to affect many schemes."283
IEA has shown that quadrupling nuclear power by 2050 would cut CO2 by ….<4%: Greenpeace. “The
International Energy Agency has looked into future energy scenarios and concluded that if existing world
nuclear power capacity could be quadrupled by 2050 its share of world energy consumption would still be below
10%. This would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by less than 4%. (Source: Energy Technology Perspectives
2010, IEA/OECD, June 2010) / Still. Every percentage shaved off of our ambitious CO2 reduction targets is a
big thing, right? So let's say we set a target of quadrupling nuclear power capacity. / We'd best get started
soon - to reach this target would mean building a new reactor every 10 days from now until 2050. / Given
that the average construction time for nuclear plants now stands at 116 months - according to the World
Energy Council - it would seem unlikely that nuclear power plants could be built fast enough to make a
difference. We have only a few years left before greenhouse gas emissions need to peak and start to decline, so
that we can avoid catastrophic climate change.”284
“Vast public debate” kicks off in France on the future of nuclear: Peggy Hollinger in the FT. “The
unease has been so intense that even the long-standing cross-party consensus on nuclear power seems to be
crumbling. The Socialist party this week ditched decades of atomic allegiance to call for an exit within 20-30
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25.3.11.
27.3.11.
28.3.11.
years. … “the government – which has firmly rejected the idea of a referendum on nuclear power – may yet be
obliged to hold a national debate on France’s energy mix. / In the meantime, Mr Sarkozy wants to keep
these concerns in check by ensuring he has a big say in the criteria to be used for the “stress tests” on Europe’s
reactors, a third of which sit in France. France is resisting Brussels’ suggestion the tests are done by a panel of
European experts rather than its own Nuclear Safety Authority.”285
“Lobbyists long effort to revive nuclear industry faces new test”: New York Times. The industry slowly
rebuilt itslef with political patronage after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Now it is fighting for its life again in
America, with 104 planned reactors and $36 billion of loan guarantees at stake.286
Arbitration tribunal extends injunction on BP’s Arctic deal with Rosneft. A big blow for Bob Dudley. The
TNK oligarchs will be partying. Stan Polovets, chief executive of AAR: “Wilfully ignoring the provisions of the
shareholder agreement was a serious misjudgment by BP that has severely damaged the relationship between
the TNK-BP shareholders; it has also harmed BP’s reputation in Russia. We expect Bob Dudley to make every
effort to rectify the situation and rebuild the trust that has been lost between BP, AAR and the management of
TNK-BP.”287
George Monbiot is wrong. Nuclear power is not the way to fight climate change. Renewable energy is a
safe, clean source which will become cheaper as we invest in it:” Jeremy Leggett in the Guardian paper. 288
100% renewable energy by 2050 is possible: Ecofys study. Nearly 100% of global energy needs can be
met with with renewable sources by 2050. Approximately half of the goal is met through increased energy
efficiency, and the other half is achieved by switching to renewable energy sources for electricity production.
Global energy demand in 2050 will be 15% lower than in 2005. Wind, solar, biomass and hydropower dominate
electricity supply, with solar and geothermal sources, as well as heat pumps providing a large share of heat for
buildings and industry.289 290
Solar energy can meet >a third global energy at average annual solar energy growth rate <today:
much lower than we're currently achieving. Solar in the Ecofys study is used for about half the electricity, half
building heating, and 15% of industrial heat and fuel by 2050. Wind could meet one-quarter of the world's
electricity needs by 2050 if current growth rates continue, and sets that as its goal. More than one-third of
building heat coming from geothermal sources by 2050. Wave and tidal is about 1% of global electricity in
2050. Hydropower, which currently supplies 15% of global electricity, ultimately supplies 12%.291
FUKUSHIMA DAY 15: Japan PM warns there is still no end in sight. Reactor 3 may have cracked its
containment, he says. Citizens 20-30 km away are “recommended” to leave. The US lends military barges so
that the plant workers can switch from sea water to fresh water because of concerns about salt buildup. 17
workers at the plant have absorbed more than 100 millisieverts (the level considered harmful).292
“Wall Street poses the biggest threat to nuclear power”: Rep. Ed Markey of Massachustetts. And on the
federal loan guarantees: “The nuclear industry was successful four weeks ago in the House of Representatives
in preserving $18.6 billion in loan guarantees for nuclear power and simultaneously killing all the loan
guarantees for wind and solar and other renewable energy construction. There could not be a greater
perversion of free market principles than taxpayer-subsidized support for nuclear and zero to its competitors.
My belief is there should be no loan guarantees for anyone unless there are loan guarantees for everyone. …
Let's be clear: 50 new nuclear reactors would have to be built by 2025 just for nuclear energy to ensure its
current share of energy generation. As a solution to global-warming, there would have to be many more than
that, and the greater likelihood is no more than a small handful will be constructed by 2025. Wall Street has not
invested in new nuclear power-generation capacity in 36 years. The nuclear industry insists that the American
taxpayer insure the nuclear power plants with taxpayer guarantees for the first $12.6 billion in losses in the
event of an accident. / The nuclear industry also insists that taxpayers guarantee the loans for new nuclear
power plants, because Wall Street will not invest unless the taxpayer is on the hook. That's a system more like
a socialist or communist country. Wall Street investors, not granola-chopping protestors, pose the biggest
threat to the future of nuclear power. Between now and the next ribbon cutting for a new nuclear power plant,
it's a reasonable expectation there will be approximately 100,000 megawatts of wind power installed. So it's
easy to see a limited role for nuclear power in our future.”293
“We need a radical reappraisal of capitalism”: Kingfisher CEO Ian Cheshire. Les emphasis on grwoth in
the busness models and more on wellbeing.294
Belectric becomes the biggest solar PV system integrator in 2010. Tripling to 320 MW of non-residential
PV, it edged Juwi into second place. Q-Cells International, largest in 2009, was sixth in 2010. Belectric has
1,000 employees in 14 countries. 320 MW is just 2.4% of the 13.2 GW global non-residential market. Total
additions including residential of 5 GW was 18.2 GW, SolarBuzz estimates. The top 20 developers account for
22.1% of the global market.295
Eaga lands biggest ever UK solar deal: £300 m ($487m) in debt and equity for 30,000 social housing
rofftops. £225m of debt comes from HSBC, Lloyds, RBS and Santander, to be drawn down as schemes are
installed. £75m is equity is £30m each from HSBC and Barclays and £15m from Eaga. Eaga has struck deals to
survey 100,00 rooftops. 296 £300m / 30,000 = £10,000 per room, say 2 kW = 60 MW.
FUKUSHIMA DAY 16: Anti-nuclear electoral setback for Merkel. In the (wealthiest) German state of BadenWurttemberg, the anti-nuclear movement kicks the governing pro-nuclear party out of office (after 58 years)
and put in the Greens, who will govern with the Social Democrats. 45% of the voters say environment/energy
was the most important issue.
“Dutch bankers’ bonuses axed by people power”: Observer. An online campaign, in which thousands of
customers threatened withdrawals, overturns ING’s executive pay proposals. Yet the proposed bonuses were
far lower than those at Barclays and RBS.297
FUKUSHIMA DAY 17: Radiation levels reach 100,000 times normal background in Fukushima plant.
Airborne radioactivity in the unit 2 turbine building is so high — 1,000 millisieverts per hour — that a worker there
would reach his yearly occupational exposure limit in 15 minutes. A dose of 4,000 to 5,000 millisieverts absorbed
fairly rapidly will eventually kill about half of those exposed.298
Water in tunnels used for piping outside reactors found to have 1,000 millisieverts per hour. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency says a single dose of 1,000 millisieverts is enough to cause hemorrhaging.
Tepco asks for help from EDF and Areva.299
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29.3.11.
30.3.11.
Plutonium found in soil in the Fukushima plant. Tepco says the traces of 238, 239, and 240 at 5 sites are
not a threat to health. An IAEA official fears this means containment at number 3 reactor has been breached.
The samples were actually taken a week ago.300
Tepco president hid in his office for a week after the disaster. FT: “The claim that Masataka Shimizu in
effect temporarily withdrew from frontline visibility in the midst of the emergency, but did not formally transfer
responsibility to a deputy, is likely further to erode confidence in the company’s ability to resolve the world’s
worst nuclear crisis in 25 years. / Mr Shimizu, who is 67, has not appeared in public since a March 13 news
conference, at which he apologised for “trouble and worry” caused by breakdowns at the plant following the
natural disaster, whose scale he said had been “beyond our expectations”. He didn’t even attend crisis
meetings.301
Merkel blames election defeat on the Fukushima disaster. The centre right is now in retreat in Germany,
France and Italy.302 Merkel’s government flags a “different concept” for nuclear energy. “As a supporter of the
peaceful use of nuclear energy, my view on nuclear energy has changed since the events in Japan.”303
World’s biggest offshore oil find, Kashagan, may never give a return to investors: Platts. “Kashagan is
proclaimed the world's greatest offshore oil field. But when--or even whether--it will produce to anything like its
once planned 1.5 million b/d potential is now in very grave doubt. / Shell, in charge of drawing up a revised
financial program for the all-important second phase intended to take production to such a level, is now
disbanding its specialist teams, and the other partners in the giant consortium formed to develop the field are
doing likewise. / Diplomatic, governmental and legal sources interviewed by Platts say the North Caspian
Operating Company (NCOC), as the group is collectively known, is currently operating on an ad hoc basis, with
no one knowing when even the start of the first phase might take place. And several of the partners are said to
be worrying about whether they will ever see any return on the billions of dollars invested.” Kashagan has 13
billion barrels of reserves, supposedly, and 38 bn barrels of oil in place.304
Pirates hijack a Singapore-bound oil tanker ex Sudan in the eastern part of the Gulf of Aden.
Reuters: “Tankers are a prized catch for ransom-seeking Somali pirates who operate as far south as
Madagascar and as far east as a few hundred miles off India. Somali pirates early last month grabbed a U.S.bound super tanker carrying a crude oil cargo worth an estimated $200 million.”305
Moodys places the long term ratings of nine Japanese utilities on review with a view to downgrade
and downgrades one to negative. Tepco’s share price has plunged 73% since March 11. Moody’s thinks new
nuclear in Japan will be subject to a “fundamental reassessment.”306
Moody’s raises alarm that banks might start taking outsize risks in order to win advisory business.
The trigger is JP Morgan Chase’s £20bn bridge loan to AT&T to acquire T Mobile USA, a “credit negative” deal.307
FUKUSHIMA DAY 18: Hopes fading of restoring automatic cooling systems at Fukushima anytime soon,
Japanese government officials admit. Meanwhile, the feed and bleed process is creating increasing quantities of
dangerously radioactive water, making repair work increasingly difficult. The rods have lost 99% of their heat
but still produce enough to evaporate 200 tons of water a day. The US is preparing to ship radiation-hardened
robots.308
Former GE reactor scientist believes the race is lost: that reactor 2 has melted through containment
to the concrete floor beneath. Richard Lahey was head of safety research for boiling-water reactors at General
Electric when the company installed the units at Fukushima.309
“Caesium fallout from Fukushima rivals Chernobyl”: New Scientist. This outside the 30 km exclusion
zone.310
Opec will earn over a trillion dollars in export revenues if the oil price stays above $100 for the rest of
the year, IEA reports. And on lower exports than the record $990bn of 2008. Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of
$83 to balance its national budget. It is at $115 now.311
UK falls from 3rd to 13th in league table of nations investing in alternative and clean energy. According
to a report by the US Pew Environment Group, the UK now ranks well behind developing countries such as
Brazil, in sixth place, India in 10th place and China in first place. Guardian: “Investment in
alternative energy and clean technology reached $11bn (£7bn) in the UK in 2009, but plummeted to only
$3.3bn (£2bn) last year - a decline of 70%. … Top of the league is China, with $54bn (£34bn), Germany with
$41.2bn (£25.7bn) and the US, with $34bn (£21bn) of investment last year. … Overall, global clean technology
investment reached a record $243bn (£152bn) last year. … this was the first year in which investment
in renewable energy overtook nuclear power.312
“Investors are not just scaremongering on renewable energy charges”: Kiran Stacey on FT.com. the
UK has just made things worse, by hurrying through an unexpected reduction in solar feed-in tariffs. Investors
have warned this kind of last minute change will force them to allocate money elsewhere. / And while it is
easy to write such warnings off as scare-mongering by those who have skin in the game, the impact hit home
to me when I met Artemis, the UK investment group, which is just about to open an energy fund. / Why was
their fund so light on renewables, one journalist asked (it has only a 10 per cent weighting in the sector, and
almost all through biomass). And the reply from fund manager John Dodd: “Renewables are heavily reliant on
government support. And when you look at what happened in Spain…”. / Spain’s solar subsidy cut has cast a
long shadow over renewables investment, and the UK’s recent decision, which seemed motivated largely by
pressure from the Treasury, is only likely to make things worse.”313
FUKUSHIMA DAY 19: China may double solar goal to 10 GW by 2015 after the nuclear leak in Japan.
So the China Securities Report claims, citing unnamed sources. The China Electicity Council, an industry body,
has asked for the reactor building programme to be scaled back.314
France’s nuclear safety authority warns EDF to improve reactor safety maintenance or else they will
consider suspending the new build programme. The government has ordered the ASN to do a reactor by reactor
review by year end. FT: “Last year EDF discovered “anomalies” affecting dozens of its reactors, including
corrosion on parts of the steam generators within its older reactors. EDF replaced the parts and asked
permission to continue operating some reactors, despite a deterioration in conditions. This request had been
refused, the regulator said.”315
Horror stories about the health and environmental impacts of gas fracking build in Texas. Go into
your yard, feel nauseous, get a nosebleed, watch your well water bubble and go waxy, call the regulator and
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have them find nothing is wrong etc etc. The dozens of citizen groups that have formed in North Texas in the
last several years claim that the Railroad Commission and TCEQ aren’t regulating gas drilling properly. 316
Spain’s solar industry becomes another victim of the financial crisis. Guardian: “Another Madrid-based
businessman, from one of Spain's leading companies, was franker, likening relations, only half-jokingly, as a
"war". The Asociación de la Industria Fotovoltaica (Asif), Spain's solar industry body, accuses politicians of
telling lies, exaggerating the costs of generating electricity using solar pv to justify the cut in subsidies.
It is more than just bragging rights between rival generators at stake. The solar pv industry alone received
subsidies last year of €2.6bn (£2.28bn), a sum neither the country – nor the utilities – can afford. The utilities
have paid out €20bn to subsidise solar and wind projects, and are still waiting for the government to pay them
back.”317
FUKUSHIMA DAY 20: Japan nuclear safety agency: radiation may be flowing continuously into the sea.
Levels are more than 4,000 times the regulatory level, 300 m offshore.318
French head of nuclear safety: Nobody can guarantee that there will never be a nuclear accident in
France," he warned, adding the likelihood of more than one natural disaster occurring at the same as happened
in Japan "is a subject that until now we didn't really take into account." "Climate change is changing the
situation," he said. "Extreme events that so far happened every thousand years along the coast now happen
every hundred years."319
Joshua Frank: How Monbiot selectively quotes Chernobyl radiation data. "The Chernobyl meltdown was
hideous and traumatic. The official death toll so far appears to be 43: 28 workers in the initial few months and
15 civilians by 2005," wrote Monbiot, who cited World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific
Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation as his source. However, even the World Health Organization
concluded that approximately 4,000 people would eventually die as a result of radiation exposure from
Chernobyl, a statement Monbiot seemed content with dismissing.
/ Even so, both the UN and WHO seem to
have drastically underestimated the true human cost of the Chernobyl meltdown. The New York Academy of
Sciences in 2010 released the most significant and vital English language report on the deaths and
environmental devastation caused by Chernobyl. After pouring through thousands of reports and studies
conducted in Eastern Europe and Russia, the Academy concluded that nearly one million people have died as a
result of radiation exposure.
/ Dr. Janette D. Sherman, who edited the volume, explained the discrepancy
between the UN's assessment and the Academy's regarding Chernobyl, "[The UN] released a report ... and they
only included about 350 articles available in the English language, but [the New York Academy of Sciences]
looked at well over 5,000 articles ... by people who were there and saw what was going on. We are talking
about medical doctors, scientists, veterinarians, epidemiologists, who saw what was happening when people in
their communities were getting sick and dying."
/
In the Academy's book that includes the report,
titled Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment, they argue that the World
Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which reports to the UN, formed an
agreement in 1959 which states one will not release a report without the agreement of the other.320
Saudi Arabia announces a $100bn programme to replace oil in electricity generation, including solar
and nuclear. Details expected on 3rd April.321
“China to focus on solar farms, cut 2020 nuclear goal after Japan’s crisis”: Bloomberg. The 80 GW
nuclear target will go down and the 20 GW solar target up.322
Windpower produced 21% of Spain’s electricity demand in March, a record, more than any other source,
and more electricity than Portugal consumes. 4,738 GWh.323
FUKUSHIMA DAY 21: Japan PM admits there will be a “long term battle” for years to stabilise Fukushima.
And in that time the evacuated residents can’t be allowed home.324
UK nuclear expert says it could take 50 to 100 years before the nuclear fuel rods have completely cooled
and been removed. Dr John Price, a former member of the Safety Policy Unit at the UK's National Nuclear
Corporation: "As the water leaks out, you keep on pouring water in, so this leak will go on for ever. There has
to be some way of dealing with it. The water is connecting in tunnels and concrete-lined pits at the moment and
the question is whether they can pump it back. The final thing is that the reactors will have to be closed and
the fuel removed, and that is 50 to 100 years away. It means that the workers and the site will have to be
intensely controlled for a very long period of time."325
John Vidal: Listen to Alexey Yablakov on radiation. “I prefer the words of Alexey Yablokov, member of the
Russian academy of sciences, and adviser to President Gorbachev at the time of Chernobyl: "When you hear 'no
immediate danger' [from nuclear radiation] then you should run away as far and as fast as you can." / Five
years ago I visited the still highly contaminated areas of Ukraine and the Belarus border where much of the
radioactive plume from Chernobyl descended on 26 April 1986. …. It was grim. We went from hospital to
hospital and from one contaminated village to another. We found deformed and genetically mutated babies in
the wards; pitifully sick children in the homes; adolescents with stunted growth and dwarf torsos; foetuses
without thighs or fingers and villagers who told us every member of their family was sick. …. While there have
been thousands of east European studies into the health effects of radiation from Chernobyl, only a very few
have been accepted by the UN, and there have been just a handful of international studies trying to gauge an
overall figure. They range from the UN's Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation study (57
direct deaths and 4,000 cancers expected) to the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
(IPPNW), who estimated that more than 10,000 people had been affected by thyroid cancer alone and a further
50,000 cases could be expected.
/
Moving up the scale, a 2006 report for Green MEPs suggested up to
60,000 possible deaths; Greenpeace took the evidence of 52 scientists and estimated the deaths and illnesses
to be 93,000 terminal cancers already and perhaps 140,000 more in time. Using other data, the Russian
Academy of Medical Sciences declared in 2006 that 212,000 people had died as a direct consequence of
Chernobyl. / At the end of 2006, Yablokov and two colleagues, factoring in the worldwide drop in births and
increase in cancers seen after the accident, estimated in a study published in the annals of the New York
Academy of Sciences that 985,000 people had so far died and the environment had been devastated. Their
findings were met with almost complete silence by the World Health Organisation and the industry.”326
Time for everyone to readup on radiation exposure. Dental X-ray 0.005 mSv; 135g bag of Brazil nuts
0.01 mSv; Chest X-ray 0.02; Transatlantic flight mSv 0.07 mSv; Nuclear power station worker average annual
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exposure 0.2 mSv ; UK annual average radon dose 1 mSv; UK average annual radiation dose 2.7 mSv; USA
average annual radiation dose 6.2 mSv;; CT scan of the chest 6.6 mSv; Average annual radon dose to people
in Cornwall 7.8mSv; Whole body CT scan 10 mSv; Annual exposure limit for nuclear industry employees 20
mSv; Level at which changes in blood cells can be readily observed 100 mSv; Acute radiation effects including
nausea and a reduction in white blood cell count 1,000 mSv. 327
U.K. feed-in tariffs attracted 109 megawatts of generating capacity in the program’s first year,
figures from the energy regulator Ofgem show. Solar photovoltaic panels were 78 megawatts, statistics on
Ofgem’s website show. That compares with 4 megawatts of solar for 2009.328
Crack found in pit below reactor 2 seems to be source of radiactive water now leaking into sea,
TEPCO says. The Japanese PM tours the plant today.329
“Reactor forensics” shows three partial meltdowns. On March 21, Stanford University presented an
invitation-only panel discussion on the Japanese crisis that featured Alan Hansen, an executive vice president of
Areva NC, a unit of the company focused on the nuclear fuel cycle. / “Clearly,” he told the audience, “we’re
witnessing one of the greatest disasters in modern time.” Dr. Hansen, a nuclear engineer, presented a slide
show that he said the company’s German unit had prepared. That division, he added, “has been analyzing this
accident in great detail.” The presentation gave a blow-by-blow of the accident’s early hours and days. It said
drops in cooling water exposed up to three-quarters of the reactor cores, and that peak temperatures hit 2,700
degrees Celsius, or more than 4,800 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s hot enough to melt steel and zirconium — the
main ingredient in the metallic outer shell of a fuel rod, known as the cladding. “Zirconium in the cladding starts
to burn,” said the slide presentation. At the peak temperature, it continued, the core experienced “melting of
uranium-zirconium eutectics,” a reactor alloy.330
The deal: “You invade Bahrain. We take out Gaddafi in Libya.” Pepe Escobar in Asia Online: “This, in
short, is the essence of a deal struck between the Barack Obama administration and the House of Saud. Two
diplomatic sources at the United Nations independently confirmed that Washington, via Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton, gave the go-ahead for Saudi Arabia to invade Bahrain and crush the pro-democracy movement
in their neighbor in exchange for a "yes” vote by the Arab League for a no-fly zone over Libya - the main
rationale that led to United Nations Security Council resolution 1973.
/
The revelation came from two
different diplomats, a European and a member of the BRIC group, and was made separately to a US scholar
and Asia Times Online. According to diplomatic protocol, their names cannot be disclosed.
/ Pepe Escobar is
the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red
Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His new book, just out, is Obama does
Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).331
TEPCO tries to use expanding polymer to plug the leak pouring water into sea at Fukushima. The
crack in reactor 2’s concrete pit is 20cm and is generating radiation of 1,000 mSv per hour. The polymer is
having no visible effect, and officials now talk openly of efforts to stabilise the plant taking months. Two
workers are found dead, having been killed at the time of the earthquake and tsunami. Their bodies need to be
decontaminated.332
TEPCO officials are being harassed by the Japanese public. The company tapes over signs for its own
worker dormitories.333
RWE sues the German government over its decision to idle seven reactors pending a 3 month review
after the Fukushima accident.334
BP makes a deal with regulator and is expected to resume drilling the Gulf of Mexico despite threat of
manslaughter charges.335
Saudi Arabia looks to halve oil and gas use in electricity generation using solar and nuclear. Khalid Al
Sulaiman, vice president for renewable energy at King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, makes
the announcement at a conference in Riyadh today. King Abdullah City is the agency in charge of developing
green energy. Last week officials announced that the drive to cut domestic oil use would have a $100bn
budget, about a third of which would go to use of renewables in generation.336
“Move to put climate change back on agenda” as UN talks resume in Bangkok. Irish Times: “Former
Greenpeace climate campaigner Jeremy Leggett, now chairman of Solarcentury, believes the crisis triggered by
events in north Africa, the Middle East and Japan show that “we are entering a time of consequences” regarding
where the world will get its energy. / “Nobody – whether individual, household, community, city, government
or business – can responsibly afford simply to hope for a comfortable outcome on the peak-oil risk issue any
longer. We all need to be drawing up contingency plans,” he blogged.”337
UBS report says Fukushima is already worse for the nuclear industry than Chernobyl. They give two
reasons: size and duration, and the fact that it is in Japan, not the Soviet Union.338
New World Bank energy lending policy would favour renewables and limit coal lending to poorest
countries. The draft has been seen by the Guardian. The bank allocated £3.4bn – one-quarter of all its spending
on energy projects – on coal-fired power in developing countries in the year to June 2010: 40 times more than
five years previously.339
TEPCO applied for two new reactors at Fukushima on 31 March. Fukushima bureaucrat in charge of new
projects, Nozaki Yoichi: “If you consider the feelings of the people of Fukushima, this is simply unforgivable.”340
Radioactive water leak stopped at Fukushima. Concrete, liquid glass, sawdust, and newspapers did the
trick. Reuters: “Samples of the water used to cool reactor No. 2 were 5 million times the legal limit of
radioactivity, officials said on Tuesday, adding to fears that contaminants had spread far beyond the disaster
zone. The government is considering imposing radioactivity restrictions on seafood for the first time in the crisis
after contaminated fish were found. India also became the first country to ban food imports from all areas of
Japan over radiation fears.”341
Leaked Nuclear Regulatory Commission paper chronicles ongoing risks at Fukushima, including
containment breaching and explosions. The document also suggests that fragments or particles of nuclear fuel
from spent fuel pools were blown “up to one mile from the units.” The authors see no immediate risk of
criticality.342
CNN headline: “Tepco’s offer: $12 per person.”343
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Oil price hits $120, which is the highest ever in sterling (given the 17% fall against the dollar since the
$147 of June 2008).344
“The unpalatable truth is that the anti-nuclear lobby has misled us all”: Monbiot. “They now claim
985,000 people have been killed by Chernobyl, and that it will continue to slaughter people for generations to
come. These claims are false. / The UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (Unscear) is
the equivalent of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Like the IPCC, it calls on the world's leading
scientists to assess thousands of papers and produce an overview. Here is what it says about the impacts of
Chernobyl. / Of the workers who tried to contain the emergency at Chernobyl, 134 suffered acute radiation
syndrome; 28 died soon afterwards. Nineteen others died later, but generally not from diseases associated with
radiation. The remaining 87 have suffered other complications, including four cases of solid cancer and two of
leukaemia.
/
In the rest of the population there have been 6,848 cases of thyroid cancer among young
children – arising "almost entirely" from the Soviet Union's failure to prevent people from drinking milk
contaminated with iodine 131. Otherwise "there has been no persuasive evidence of any other health effect in
the general population that can be attributed to radiation exposure". People living in the countries affected
today "need not live in fear of serious health consequences from the Chernobyl accident".345
Huhne in Saudi: “There is no shortage of supply, and yet the price has remained high. International
energy markets should understand that the current price of oil does not reflect the realities of supply and
demand.”346
Bob Diamond has decided Barclays “must increase its risk appetite." Profits aren’t high enough, and the
value at risk has fallen.347
Glencore set to raise $10-12bn from a 20% stake at IPO. The largest IPOs to date in Europe are the
privatisations of Italian utility Enel, which raised $17.4bn in 1999, and Deutsche Telekom, which raised $13bn
in 1996. The third-largest IPO, by Moscow-based oil company Rosneft in 2006, raised $10.7bn.348
Moody’s cuts Portugal’s credit rating, following Fitch and S&P. Bailout looms for the beleaguered
country.349
Tepco pumps nitrogen into containment vessel of reactor 1 to try and stop explosive hydrogen build
up.350
Prosecutors raid the Bavarian offices of French nuclear plant maker Areva, in yet another bribery case
in Germany. FT: ”Five former and current Areva employees and three external consultants are being
investigated over possible breach of trust and bribery, Antje Gabriels-Gorsolke, prosecutor in the town of
Nuremberg, said. The investigators allege that the suspects have channelled a multi-million euro sum of the
company’s money to slush funds outside Germany in the years from 2002 to 2005. The funds were being used
to pay bribes in order to win contracts, the prosecution suspects.”351
UK government cancels solar projects on its own estates as a result of PV feed-in tariff cuts. Business
Green: “That is the charge from "stakeholders" who contributed to a Whitehall project to assess the potential
for fitting solar panels across the government estate, following a workshop on the topic at the Cabinet Office
last November.”352
Cleantech investment in the US more than doubles this quarter, Cleantech Group reports. Meanwhile UK
investment falls.353
Solar PV costs “may already rival coal”: Bloomberg. “Large photovoltaic projects will cost $1.45 a watt to
build by 2020, half the current price, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimated today. The London-based
research company says solar is viable against fossil fuels on the electric grid in the most sunny regions such as
the Middle East. … Installation of solar PV systems will almost double to 32.6 gigawatts by 2013 from 18.6
gigawatts last year, New Energy Finance estimates. Manufacturing capacity worldwide has almost quadrupled
since 2008 to 27.5 gigawatts, and 12 gigawatts of production will be added this year. … Rooftop solar
installations also will become cheaper, the executives said.”354
IEA: Fossil fuel subsidies choking renewables growth. The IEA's latest Clean Energy Progress
Report (PDF) warns that coal and gas support worth $312bn could make 2050 climate targets an impossibility,
and that it is essential they are removed. $57bn of green subsidies dished out in 2009 have generated
reductions in renewable technologies and growth rates of 30 to 40 per cent, but this will not be enough to halve
global energy-related CO2 emissions by 2050. Renewables capacity will have to double from today's level by
2020 , meaning annual growth rates of 17 per cent for wind and 22 per cent for solar.355
EIA: shale gas can add 40% to global gas recoverable resources, including areas outside the US:
5,760 trillion cubic feet of resources in 32 countries, plus 862 tcf in the US = 6,622 tcf. Global proved reserves
are around the same, 6,609 tcf, and technically recoverable resources are a further 16,000 tcf. So adding the
shale gas gives 22,600 tcf: 40% up. China has most: 1,275. UK has 20.356
“The global oil casino benefits only its players: Leigh McGrath Goodman in the FT. “World energy
markets have been carefully designed to profit from the slightest supply hiccup, even if there is little evidence
of actual shortages. The energy-trading fraternity has never let the facts get in the way of a good supply scare.
… As governments on both sides of the pond reassess their rules, some have floated the idea of kicking
speculators out of the market altogether. That would be a bad idea. Nonetheless, their licence to speculate
should run only so far – and much less far than at present. … Rules governing these markets have not kept
pace with this rise in speculation. Speculators can trade with almost no money down, allowing them to influence
prices via large bets, while often risking only 5 to 10 per cent of the overall value of the trade. The US Congress
has, from time to time, berated “big oil” in public hearings, but has shied away from reducing the traders’
immense use of leverage.”357
GE will build the largest solar manufacturing plant in the US: 400MW of thin-film modules per year.
$600m to be invested, operational by 2013.358
Climate talks stall, again. The impasse at the session in Bankok is the very agenda for negotiations in the
year ahead.359
Association of German utility companies calls for abolishing nuclear power by 2020, excluding Eon
and RWE. AP in Washington Post: “Germany’s utility companies want “swift and complete” abolishment of
nuclear power in the wake of the disaster at Japan’s Fukushima reactors, says their umbrella organization. The
technology should be phased out by 2020 or at the latest by 2023, the German Association of Energy and
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Water Industries, BDEW, said Friday following a board meeting. Up until today the organization had been fully
behind nuclear energy, but the events in Japan caused the dramatic U-turn.” BDEW represents about 1,800
utilities. The two biggest nuclear operators, E.ON AG and RWE AG, said after the vote that they oppose the
decision.360
Yesterday’s magnitude 7 aftershock spilt water from spent fuel ponds at Onagawa nuclear power
plant, Tohoku Electric Power Company says. 3.8 litres were split. There are five water leaks.361
World largest trading houses conduct stress tests: could their finances can withstand a superspike?
$175 oil, even for a few days, would involve great dependency on credit lines.362
French Prime-Minister declares “peakoil happened in 2009, production can now only decrease”.
Posted by Lionel Badel on Twitter.363
As Republicans and Democrats bicker over the federal budget, on the verge of shutting down the US
government, the Republicans table the keeping of mountain-top removal coal mining on their side of the
deal.364
FT: Madoff got away with his fraud because so much of what he did is commonplace on Wall Street.
Stunning conclusion to an interview with Madoff in jail. “The fact that so much of Madoff’s story is so
commonplace on Wall Street – the tax shelters, black boxes and mysterious returns – is what allowed him to go
undetected for so long.”
Osborne welcomes UK banking reform propoals including ring fencing essential banking services: a
cost of up to £5bn to lenders. The Banking Commission reports in two days. Barclays has been the most
vociferous lobbyist against far-reaching Banking Commission suggestions to date.365
Lord Oakshotte: "Barclays is the biggest risk for the British economy because they are openly trying to
build the biggest investment bank in the world on the back of a taxpayer guarantee. The right solution is for
Barclays to demerge so shareholders get one share in Barclays Bank and one share in Barclays Capital. RBS
must also spin off or sell its investment bank." This from the recently resigned LibDem Treasury spokesman on
the eve of the Banking Commission report publication.
Underground coal gasification investor claims production at $30 a barrel. This at one of Australia’s 3
demo projects. The other two have had contomination scares that set the industry back. Mining magnate Peter
Bond: “We could be the WalMart of energy.”366
Saudi oil consumption trends: The Oil Drum charts the rise of domestic consumption under the title
“What is ‘our’ oil doing in their economy?”367
Radiation up to 4x the levels in the Chernobyl evacuation zone found In soil 30 km from Fukushima.
The rice harvest is in question over a large area.368
Keynes warned that the dragons would come back, and Will Hutton thinks our leaders are they.
Lovely summary in the Observer.369
Banking Commission report fails to call for breakup of UK banks. Shares duly rise, especially Barclays’.
The report calls for “ring fancing” of savers deposits from invesment banking. It calls for banks to hold at least
10% of tier 1 capital, not the 7% agreed in Basle 3. There may be changes before the final report is published
in September.370
“The banks get away with it again”: Philip Stevens in the FT. “Politicians eager to hurl rhetorical brickbats
have been a lot more reluctant to embrace the radical regulatory reforms that would meet Mr King’s criteria for
a well-functioning market economy.”371
“The banks breathe a £1bn sigh of relief”: Guardian. The share price of three major banks rose by more
than £1bn. Vickers, chairman of the IBC, reacts angrily to suggestions that he “bottled.”372
BPs troubles deepen in Russia. Igor Sechin, deputy Russian PM, steps down as chairman of Rosneft. He was
architect of the deal with BP to drill in the Arctic that so affronted the oligarchs of AAR, JV partners with BP in
TNK-BP, the company they claim BP should have gone for the Arctic with. AAR are preparing lawsuits, one
claiming $10bn damages for lost oil-and-gas opportunities in the Arctic.373
Is the UK government preparing for a retreat from nuclear, the Telegraph asks. Charles Hendry said
on Radio 4 that safety is the priority and the government can reach its objectives without nuclear.374
Britnet cable increases is the first cable to Europe for 25 years. Costing £500m, it has a 1 GW capacity.
The idea of a European supergrid of HVDC cables gains credibility.375
Stanford study finds solar panels are contagious. For every 1 percent increase in the number of
installations in a particular zip code, the time until the next adoption of solar decreases by 1 percent. 376
DAY 32: Japan upgrades Fukushima to Level 7, same as Chernobyl, the worst possible on the
International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. The NSA says radioactive rleases have been “massive”.377
Though the radioactivity released so far is less than Chernobyl, it could end up worse, a TEPCO official says.378
Three reactors have suffered partial meltdowns, and “the battle is far from over.”379
NRDC scientist reviews the 12 main nuclear reactor meltdowns: one every 3 years. NYT: “Given that
in the history of nuclear energy, 582 reactors have operated for a total of 14,400 years (counting each year of
operation by one reactor as a reactor-year), a core-damage accident has happened once every 1,309 years of
operation. With 439 reactors now operating worldwide, the rate would yield an accident an average of once
every three calendar years.”380
Russian nuclear expert: Fukushima is “much worse” than Chernobyl. "Chernobyl was level seven and it
had only one reactor and lasted only two weeks. We have now three weeks (at Fukushima) and we have four
reactors which we know are in very dangerous situations," Natalya Mironova says.381
Germany plans to accelerate shift from nuclear power to renewable energy and increased energy
efficiency, according to a draft plan by the environment and economy ministries. The draft plan includes a €5
billion ($7.21 billion) program to increase offshore wind power.382 German energy mix: Mineral oil - 33.7%,
Hard coal- 12.1%, Brown coal 10.8% , Natural and petroleum gas - 21.8%, Nuclear power 10.8%, Hydro, wind
and solar - 1.5%, Other renewables - 7.9%, Other sources -1.9 % (Federal Ministry and Economics and
Technology).
US research finds unconventional gas produced by fracking has worse carbon footprint than coal
over a 20 year timeframe. The work at Cornell university suggests this is because so much methane leaks into
the atmosphere during production: 4-8% over the lifetime of a well.383
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Asia is making vast bets on American unconventional oil and gas, enterprises facing an array of
economic and environmental problems: Kevin Brown in the FT. $20bn has been invested in the last two
years.384
China races ahead of US on emissions trading schemes. A senior Chinese official says
mandatory emissions trading systems will be rolled out in six of the country's most advanced regions by 2013.
After the pilot schemes in Guangdong, Hubei, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing, the government will
ramp up the use of carbon-based financial instruments to a nationwide level by 2015.385
“Has BP really cleaned up the Gulf spill?” So asks the Guardian as dead animals continue to wash up
on the beaches. Samantha Joy, a marine scientist the University of Georgia, is studying the seafloor by
submarine. She finds thick oil 10 miles from the site. "I think it is not beyond the imagination that 50% of the
oil is still floating around out there."386
"BP is requiring scientists to sign three-year confidentiality agreements. The research should be made
public immediately. It should be publicly accountable with no strings attached": Antonia Juhasz, the author
of Black Tide,, on BP's claim that it is spending $500m to fund scientific studies. "There are now 148 other deep
water wells in the world. They are going everywhere. Yet the ecological and financial costs of failure are
catastrophic. The lessons just have not been learned. Not a single piece of new legislation has come out of
it."387
BP wins a one month extension to expiry of its share swap with Rosneft. AAR reportedly will sell for a
TNK-BP valuation of $70bn, which Bp say is too high.388
Germany could increase the annual PV installation target to 5GW annually, up from 3.5GW now, IHS
iSuppli believes. Their installation forecast of 7.2GW in 2011 is down only 3.5% from 7.4GW achieved in 2010.
HIS iSuppli expects the Italian PV market have an expected cap of 1.5 to 2.0GW from 2012 onward, when the
new rules are announced in June: a better scenario than many expected.389
Saudi Arabia did not make up for Libyan oil. The OPEC monthly data, just out, show Libyan production
falling by well over 1 mbd in March, but the Saudi’s actually slowing their production ramp up. Stu Stanniford
speculates that the Saudis care little for the west’s need for oil, and are much more preoccupied with their
internal security.390
“BP chief Dudley survives a stormy annual meeting”: FT. 25% vote against re-election of Safety
Committee chair Bill Castell. 11% vote against exec packages.391
"We all want to exit #nuclear energy as soon as possible and make the switch to .... renewable energy."
Angela Merkel gives her most outspoken statement yet. A new 6 point plan includes a €5bn credit programme
for renewables. Germany has 17% electricity from renewables today.392
Clean Energy Investment Fell 34% as Incentives Cut in Europe: Bloomberg NEF. “New investment in
renewable energy dropped to the lowest in two years in the first quarter, weighed down by low natural gas
prices in the U.S. and subsidy cuts in Europe, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said. Money flowing into the
industry through asset finance, share sales, venture capital and private equity fell more than a third to $31.1
billion in the first three months of the year from a record $47.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010.”393
Church takes an investor stand against bonuses: Church Commissioners will vote against any packages
more than 4 times salary. Bob Diamond’s was 35x.
BP execs tried to find ways to control scientific research on the Gulf spill, e-mails released under FoI
requests show.394
9 out of 10 authors have links to Exxon among those who wrote 900 papers cited as supportive of climate
scepticism by a front group, the Global Warming Policy Foundation. 395
Chevron CEO: “if you want affordable energy, you want more oil, gas and coal.” John Watson seems to
be more unapologetic than his predecessor. "We're going to need oil and gas and coal for a long time if America
wants to keep the lights on."396
TEPCO hopes to bring Fukushima to full cold shutdown in 6-9 months. But there is stll no date for the
return of evacuees.397
Democrats’ report to Congress shows oil and gas companies injected 780 million gallons 2005-9,
containing 750 chemicals, 29 of them known or possible human carcinogens. Shale gas was 14% of US gas
output in 2009.398
UK government includes all of Britain's 278 environmental laws in a list of "red tape" regulations
offered for public consultation with a view to the axe. The crowdsourcing exercise aims to establish “which
regulations restrict business in the UK.” Of all the UK’s 21,000+ regulatory instruments only those covering tax
and national security issues are exempted. So the climate change act is not a national security issue?399
The IBC notion of ringfencing in banks “rests on a technocratic fiction”: Will Hutton. “When the next big bank
run happens – sooner rather than later – who could possibly imagine that, as professionals start withdrawing
funds from the investment banking arm of a universal bank, depositors are going to think that the Vickers
ringfence insulates the retail bank arm from contagion? When the theatre is on fire, everyone stampedes for
the exit. The taxpayer will be faced with exactly the same decision as in 2008 – huge bailout or systemic
collapse.”400
Was sharp Saudi oil production drop of nearly in March involuntary? So asks Martin Paine in Energy
Bulletion. Production in February was 9.125 bpd, in March it was 8.292. “The market is oversupplied," says
Saudi oil minister.401
S&P cuts US debt rating from stable to negative. This means a 1/3 chance of a downgrade within two
years. The concerns are the deficit (10.8% of GDP in 2011, 70% of GDP net debt) and fiscal pressures.402
RBS, having loaned £5.6bn to oil companies for tar sands since 2008, faces protests at its AGM,
including from First Nation Canadians protesting that their homelands are being despoiled.403
Sixth Desire oil well fails in Falklands, and that will be the end of the campaign, because the money has
dried up too.404
The nuclear industry’s “trillion dollar question”: Reuters special report. With 300+ plants in planning at
the time of Fukushima, at $ several bn a piece, the stakes are high.405
24
Triple Crunch Log
19.4.11.
20.4.11.
21.4.11.
22.4.11.
California passes a law saying that a third of its energy must come from renewables by 2020. The
law, passed last week, does not count the 12% of hydropower it already has. The useual suspects line up to
oppose.406
Munich Re provides first solar PV performance insurance policy. Investors have a key objection covered
now. The first beneficiary is Solairedirect.407
French government ponders banning shale gas exploration. This would be a European first. US
compeany Toreador is stunned.408
As Saudi Arabia tries to talk down the oil market, so it sets the stage for another rally. Javier Blas in
the FT thinks oil minister Naimi may be making a big mistake: “If Opec oil production is in reality as low as the
Saudi data suggest (800,000 bpd drop in March), there are two possible explanations.
/
Either oil
consumption is collapsing in a similar way to late 2008, when the combination of nearly $150 a barrel oil and
the global financial crisis cut demand by the biggest amount in 30 years; or Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest
producer, is making a serious mistake and over-tightening the market, hence forcing a draw on inventories and
triggering the rally last month above $125 a barrel. Mr Naimi implies that the rally is artificial, based on
financial speculation, and says that the oil market, in reality, is awash with supplies.”409
“Secret memos expose link between oil firms and invasion of Iraq”: Independent. BP and Shell denied
there had been any talks with the Blair government ahead of the invasion, but minutes obtained by Greg Muttit
under FoI paint a different picture.410
Plans for tough EU rules on oil spills come under attack from UK. Lobbying has been intense, especially
on a rule that would extend EU regulation to EU companies operating elsewhere in the world.
Is emergent peak oil killing off the recovery? So asks Tom Whipple. Oil prices have increased 22% since
February. This has been a steady climb since March 2010. The IMF said last week that we are entering a period
of increased scarcity of oil.411
Italy plans to cap solar incentives at €6-7 bn a year by 2016, by which time they expect 23 GW of
installations. 2011 FiTs will fall by between 26 and 42% depending on type. The industry is disappointed. 412
UK solar developers file a claim for judicial review of government fed-in-tariff backtrack in High
Court. One of the claimants, Low Carbon Group, has had to return £30m to investors.413
Is peak oil killing off the recovery? Oil prices have increased 22% since February. This has been a steady
climb since March 2010.414
Top 1% of entrepreneurs crete 40% of new jobs. So a WEF study shows, surveying 308,000 companies in
many countries.415
“Fossil fuel firms used biased study in massive gas lobbying push.” Industry lobbyists uged
governments to reject renewables. Guardian: “Central to the lobbying effort is a report claiming that the EU
could meet its 2050 carbon targets €900bn more cheaply by using gas than by investing in renewables. But the
Guardian has established that the analysis is based on a previous report that came to the opposite conclusion –
that renewables should play a much larger role. The report being pushed by the fossil fuel industry has been
disowned by its original authors who referred to it as "biased" in favour of gas.”416
Italy extends its nuclear moratorium indefinitely and will focus on renewables, industry minister tells
parliament. The Fukushima accident merits this, he says.417
Two spillages and a breakdown of a backup system reported to UK ministers in February by the
nuclear industry. The backup breakdown, result of a faulty valve, is likely to weigh most heavily in the ongoing
post-Fukushima review.418
“The Chernobyl deniers use far too simple a measure of radiation risk”: they ignore internal
microdoses, and use averages, just like the ICRP. (“The difference between sitting by an open fire and eating a
burning coal.”)419
BP sues Transocean over Macondo. The rig wasn’t seaworthy, they say. They also sue Cameron
International over the blowout preventer, and had previously sued Halliburton over the cement job. 420
Almost every county in Pennsylvania has experienced the dangers of gas drilling in the Marcellus
Shale. The US government is only now beginning a review of the chemicals used in fracking.421
China drills first fracking well, seeking the eumulate US. The well, in Sichuan, is deemed a success. The
government estimates 26 tcm recoverable, 10x the conventional gas.422
Californian study finds solar panels increases home values. The Lawrence Berkely National Lab looked at
data over 8 years in California. The price goes up, defraying much of the increased cost of solar electricity. The
usual premium was around $5.50 per watt. This “corresponds to a home sales price premium of approximately
$17,000 for a relatively new 3,100-watt PV system (the average size of PV systems in the study).” And the
bottom line: “These average sales price premiums appear to be comparable to the investment that
homeowners have made to install PV systems in California, which from 2001 through 2009 averaged
approximately $5/watt”.”423
The anti-nuclear pro-solar movement in Japan grows and prospects improve for solar companies.
Replacing Japan’s 9 planned nuclear reactors with PV would require 109GW of production, Goldman Sachs
calculates.424
Nuclear only works when plants are uninsured. The 440+ plants around the world hold very little
insurance. TEPCO was uninsured. Yet accident-cost estimates from a single plant exceed $10bn in Germany.425
“Shanghai fuel protests unnerve Beijing”: FT. The Chinese government has hiked fuel prices twice this
year. Chinese truckers are blocking traffic in Shanghai. Thousands of truckers are involved and the riot police
are out in force at intersections. A media blackout is in force. The authorities are desperate for the protests not
to spread. Fuel protests have also been staged in the Philippines, Uganda and Kenya.426
Saudi Arabia is phasing out wheat farming because it has depleted its aquifer. It started this crazy
activity because it feared wheat being used as a weapon just as it used oil as a weapon in the first two oil
crises. Hunger will be the next Arab battle, Lester Brown says.427
Greenpeace activists from 12 countries occupy Arctic-bound oil drilling rig in Turkey: the 52,000
tonne semi-submersible Leiv Eiriksson, on hire to Cairn at $500,000 a day. The company has not published a
detailed spill response.428
25
Triple Crunch Log
23.4.11.
24.4.11.
25.4.11.
26.4.11.
27.4.11.
28.4.11.
Business leaders and campaigners attack UK government’s green record on the anniversary of
Cameron’s announcement that they would be the greenest government ever. “Green entrepreneurs were also
critical. Jeremy Leggett, founder of Solarcentury, said: "I am bitterly disappointed. I was impressed by the
promise to be the greenest government ever. The coalition could have created a really convincing narrative of
genuine job creation but they have failed to do so”."429 430
Kiva.org expands into green loans. “Kiva has been growing like a weed since its launch in 2008. Currently,
over 570,000 people have loaned more than $200 million to entrepreneurs in 59 countries via Kiva. Kiva’s
repayment rate thus far (for entrepreneurs) is 98 percent and the startup is raising $1 million every 5 days for
small businesses. And Kiva CEO Premal Shah predicts that the organization will raise $1 billion in microloans by
2015.”431
US public would trim $100bn+ from the federal defence budget and spend more on renewables +.
And supporters of both parties agree. They would also spend more on pollution control, job training and
education, and would raise more in tax. “The House bill cuts the Department of Energy's work on renewables
and efficiency by 36%, while the administration increases it 44%. The public went even further, increasing it
110%. While the House cuts the EPA's budget by 39% and the administration cuts it by 13%, the public
increased spending on pollution control by 17%.”432
With highest ever gasoline prices, and polls saying most blame Big Oil, Obama launches an attack.
“Four billion dollars of your money are going to these companies at a time when they’re making record profits
and you’re paying near record prices at the pump,” he says at a Nevada town hall. “It has to stop.”433
Eleven UK rivers running exceptionally low already after unusually hot April. Both utilities and
environmnt groups call for water metering.434
High gasoline prices push Obama’s ratings down, but voters like Republican proposals even less.
Republicans will try to pin responsibility on the president, but it is Chinse growth that is the cause.435
Commodity trading by Barclays plays lead role in rising world food prices, campaigners will allege at
the AGM. Barclays leads the world in food cmmodity trading.436
CBI urges UK government to end delays in renewables deployment. Companies must be given clear
guidelines to invest, they say. About a third of the UK’s energy supply is scheduled to come offline in the time
we are committed legally to cut emissions by 34%: 2020. Accenture has written a report for the CBI showing
how the government can regain the initiative.437
Life in Masdar is like “living in a psychology experiment.” The master plan is changing with the global
economy, and the aim is no longer to be a zero carbon city.438
Radiation readings in Fukushima rise to highest since crisis began. Robots sent into reactor one register
up to 1,120 millisieverts per hour: more than four times the annual permitted dose for a nuclear power plant
worker.439
With tar still washing up on beaches, BP says it will be drilling in the Gulf again this year. Something
of a victory then, given a seven year ban was under discussion.440
UK solar PV has more than tripled in the last year. The total installed has jumped from 26 to 77.8 MW in
the 12 monhs since the feed-in tariffs started on 1 April 2010. More than 11,000 homeowners installed solar in
the first quarter of 2011. There is a long way to go: 77 MW is just over 0.1% of the 75 GW national generating
capacity.
IEA economist says governments should have recognised the oil depletion problem ten years ago.
So Fathi Birol says on ABC Catalyst’s 12 minute peak oil film, while appearing doubtful about the IEA’s own
assertion that production can be lifted to 96 mbd by 2030, crude having peaked in 2006. 441
China’s 12th 5 year plan involves a shift towards domestic consumption, a low-carbon economy and
innovation. These are the three main pillars of the plan, fininshed last month, and each is a radical departure
from the past. Nick Stern in the FT :“China already has a target to reduce emissions per unit of gross domestic
product by 40-45 per cent between 2005 and 2020, with a target of 17 per cent during the 12th plan. Assuming
a further 17 per cent reduction in emissions intensity in the 13th plan, this is equivalent to a decrease in
emissions intensity of about 31 per cent between 2010 and 2020. If the growth rate for the next 10 years is in
the region of 7 per cent, output would approximately double between 2010 and 2020. The combination of this
growth in output and the reduction of emissions intensity would take China’s annual emissions – in 2010 of
approximately 9bn tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent – to about 12bn tonnes in 2020. A comparable absolute
increase in the following decade would take China’s emissions to about 15bn tonnes by 2030.” This won’t be
enough for 2C stabilisation. China would need to return to 9 by 2030.442
China seems set on improving transport bottlenecks in getting coal to domestic markets. Improved
rail could mean a return to self sufficiency, and drop in global coal price, perhaps by 2015, analysts say. No
mention of carbon.443
Nearly half exisitng $17bn US nuclear loan guarantees remain unclaimed. Yet Congress has a budget
with £36bn more in it.444
29
Total buys 60% of Sunpower for $1.38 bn. The deal was friendly, with Sunpower needing help in competing
with the Chinese manufacturers. Total will offer a $1bn credit support.445
Total’s motivation: a hedge financed by high oil prices? Note that Total has invested in nuclear: an 8.33%
interest, in the EDF/GDF Suez consortium commissioned to develop the European pressurized reactor project in
Penly, France.446
William Cohan book on Goldman Sachs says they play dumb to escape accusations of “big short” malfeasance,
i.e. shorting mortgage-backed securitites at the same time as selling them.447
Centre for American Progress recommends selling oil reserves to finance cleantech: a fraction of the strategic
petroleum reserve. Also in their plan: stop subsidies to oil companies who are going to make windfall profits
anyway, set targets for import reductions beginning 2013, etc.448
26
Triple Crunch Log
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/01/electric-car-grant-uk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/02/queensland-biblical-floods-australia
3
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8234231/European-debt-markets-facesecond-credit-crisis.html
4
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jan/02/25-predictions-25-years
5
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c393fac-17a2-11e0-badd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1A34H758E
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0b0a3862-177a-11e0-badd-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html#axzz1A32UkU2c
7
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/056db69c-1836-11e0-88c9-00144feab49a.html#axzz1A9byPfPQ
8
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/01/04/barclays-oil-will-hit-100-per-barrel-this-year/
9
http://video.ft.com/v/737663201001/Australian-floods-hit-coal-and-steel
10
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b9f7c6d4-190d-11e0-9c12-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AFVpzPqe
11
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b7bf9286-1906-11e0-9c12-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AFcfv2Ng
12
http://www.financialpost.com/news/Jeff+Rubin+Peak+means+massive+sovereign+defaults/4062163/story.h
tml
13
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE7042ZR20110105
14
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/05/world-food-prices-danger-record-high-un
15
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/05/ratcliffe-coal-protesters-sentence
16
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2011/jan/05/climate-movement-renewal-ratcliffe
17
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2010/dec/16/ratcliffe-trial
18
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/jan/06/bp-oil-spill-peak-oil
19
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/83150360-1aa3-11e0-b100-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AQxoMVxM
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a393853a-1a9e-11e0-b100-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AR0qaD6Y
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92f0e18e-1a9c-11e0-b100-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ASr4mWXF
23
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/745003f2-1aa8-11e0-b100-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ASmgxuT3
24
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/07/republicans-climate-change
25
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a2982e50-1a95-11e0-b100-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AcDEwBsw
26
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/09/gas-supplies-five-year-low
27
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a96d45ba-1c2c-11e0-9b56-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Acg1zktR
28
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/10/business/global/10solar.html?_r=1&ref=global-home
29
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-10/shale-oil-drillers-chesapeake-eog-strike-rising-costs-in-flightfrom-gas.html
30
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9637d43a-1c2f-11e0-9b56-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Acg1zktR
31
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/10/activists-undercover-officer-markkennedy?intcmp=239
32
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4f02d66-1d84-11e0-a163-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Ak2odF5f
33
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/950e7b7c-1d79-11e0-a163-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Ak2odF5f
34
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/01/11/oil-spill-report-recommendations/
35
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25c77216-1d45-11e0-a163-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Ak2odF5f
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b023cd8-1e20-11e0-bab6-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AqMaIki5
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa6441a8-1da8-11e0-aa88-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AqMaIki5
38
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2011/jan/11/what-are-green-bonds
39
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/12/2010-joint-warmest-on-record
1
2
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Triple Crunch Log
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/13/uk-media-ignore-climate-change
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c046e28e-1e82-11e0-87d2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AqMaIki5
42
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74590f28-1e41-11e0-bab6-00144feab49a.html#axzz1AqMaIki5
43
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/12/vince-cable-alexander-bank-bonuses
44
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/12/military-climate-spending-us-china
45
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70B6GV20110112
46
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/jan/12/report-gulf-spill-uk-regulation
47
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2011/jan/13/household-energy-prices-rise-oil-soars
48
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/13/fuel-duty-small-businesses-costs
49
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/13/epa-us-mountainto-mining-removal
50
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/01/14/jack-gerard-answers-your-questions-part-two/
51
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b9143100-1f78-11e0-87ca-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Atokz9uC
52
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1190fa0-203d-11e0-a6fb-00144feab49a.html#axzz1B5QRHqPU
53
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fcd34b06-21a3-11e0-9e3b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BH51jQ1D
54
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/16/will-hutton-bankers-bonuses
55
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/17/bp-rosneft-criticism-miliband-environmentalists
56
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/21/emissionstrading-eu
57
http://www.greenwisebusiness.co.uk/news/report-calls-for-energy-rationing-within-the-decade-2045.aspx
58
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43552ab0-233c-11e0-b6a3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BZ5M9rS2
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b56c7898-2331-11e0-b6a3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BT4lXZag
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0c7cf212-2345-11e0-b6a3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BT4lXZag
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a33f936a-2342-11e0-b6a3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BT4lXZag
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b56c7898-2331-11e0-b6a3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BT4lXZag
63
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/19/exxonmobil-carbon-emissions-rise
64
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/19/bp-defends-russia-deal
65
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/19/bp-defends-russia-deal
66
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f7fc18da-2593-11e0-8258-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BjgFba3n
67
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/01/21/shareholder-resolutions-take-up-issue-of-hydraulicfracturing/
68
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/21/emissionstrading-eu
69
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/jan/23/ten-ideas-for-better-britain
70
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/edcc794e-2715-11e0-80d7-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Bw4mBNxL
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/23/nuclear-power-accident-clean-up-costs
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e31d396-27a6-11e0-a327-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Bw4mBNxL
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-24/german-government-rejects-report-peak-oil-occurred-in2010.html
74
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a554ae56-2806-11e0-8abc-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Bw4mBNxL
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/24/china-water-crisis?intcmp=122
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c9099ea-28e2-11e0-aa18-00144feab49a.html#axzz1C7odbkFK
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f9753506-2990-11e0-bb9b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CEMp9UGv
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/26/greenland-ice-sheet-climate-change
79
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm110127/text/110127w0002.htm
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f4841ea-2a0b-11e0-997c-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CEMp9UGv
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7aa37e74-29f7-11e0-997c-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CEMp9UGv
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/27/european-commission-carbon-market
83
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/good-energy-plans-community-bond-offering-to-fund-windfarm-expansion.html
84
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/26/davos-vantagepoint-idUSN2616618820110126
85
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/345616e2-2b06-11e0-a65f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CQYugdXM
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b222679c-29a3-11e0-bb9b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CQ3skLr8
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/99e5fa62-2b1b-11e0-a65f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CQYugdXM
88
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/28/ban-ki-moon-economic-model-environment
89
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/28/us-vestas-layoffs-idUSTRE70R27B20110128
90
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/df0d3ee2-2ac2-11e0-a2f3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CfuC9YeJ
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3d58e88-2ca2-11e0-83bd-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CavZpOzT
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/30/will-hutton-davos-world-economic-reform
95
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/30/will-hutton-davos-world-economic-reform
96
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/30/michael-lewis-the-big-short-interview
97
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/22/japan-nuclear-power-plant-checks-missed
278
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,752704,00.html
279
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/03/23/russias-electricity-industry-the-good-old-days-are-gone/
280
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/032311.html
281
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/03/23/could-the-budget-have-been-much-worse-for-the-greenagenda/
282
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/mar/23/budget-2011-george-osborne-green-bank
283
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2037101/budget-2011-loss-investment-tax-relief-kick-nuts-solar
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http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/features/ForgetFukushima/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=feature&utm_term=2503011_0630&utm_campaign=fukushim
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/263cd57a-5647-11e0-82aa-00144feab49a.html#axzz1HVB9EbSG
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/us/25lobby.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22a88e08-5620-11e0-8de9-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Hb4op6dE
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/24/renewables-nuclear-fukushima-japanenvironment?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
289
http://www.fastcompany.com/1742373/100-renewable-energy-by-2050-is-possible-heres-how-we-can-do-it
290
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/renewable_energy/susta
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31
Triple Crunch Log
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http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/25/ed-markey-wall-street-is-the-biggest-threat-to-nuclearpower/
294
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/blog/kingfisher-ceo-ian-cheshire-sustainable-capitalism
295
Recharge
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Recharge.
297
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/27/dutch-bankers-bonuses-axed-by-people-power
298
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/radiation-levels-reach-new-highs-as-conditions-worsen-forworkers/2011/03/27/AFsMLFiB_story.html?wpisrc=nl_natlalert
299
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/28/us-japan-quake-idUSTRE72A0SS20110328
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/18706eb4-5973-11e0-bc39-00144feab49a.html#axzz1HyBndO00
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1e3ba06-5966-11e0-bc39-00144feab49a.html#axzz1HyBndO00
304
http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2011/03/28/kashagan_a_grea.html
305
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/28/us-somalia-piracyidUSTRE72R4AN20110328?WT.tsrc=Social%20Media&WT.z_smid=twtrreuters_%20com&WT.z_smid_dest=Twitter
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http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/28/528336/japanese-utilities-have-a-tepco-moment/
307
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1c0e0faa-5963-11e0-bc39-00144feab49a,s01=1.html#axzz1HyBndO00
308
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/world/asia/30japan.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&src=tptw
309
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/japan-lost-race-save-nuclear-reactor
310
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20305-caesium-fallout-from-fukushima-rivals-chernobyl.html
311
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fa28b96-5a2f-11e0-86d3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1I4RRKFr2
312
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/mar/29/uk-global-green-investment-rankings
313
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/03/29/investors-are-not-just-scaremongering-on-renewablesubsidy-changes/
314
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/china-photovoltaic-idUSL3E7EU00J20110330
315
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f716820e-5af7-11e0-a290-00144feab49a.html#axzz1I4CUMHgC
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http://www.dentonrc.com/sharedcontent/dws/drc/localnews/stories/DRC_Shale4Reg_0330.2332986e2.html
317
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/30/new-europe-spain-solar-power
318
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/31/us-japan-nuclear-watchdogidUSTRE72U0KB20110331?feedType=RSS&feedName=japan&virtualBrandChannel=10464&WT.tsrc=Social%20
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319
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2011/03/31/France-looks-at-its-own-nuclear-industry/UPI68391301629503/
320
http://www.alternet.org/environment/150459/why_climate_activist_george_monbiot_has_gone_nuclear_-_and_why_he's_wrong
321
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/saudi-arabia-to-target-solar-power-in-100-billion-energyplan.html
322
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-01/china-to-cut-nuclear-goal-after-japan-reactor-crisis-correct.html
323
http://www.aeeolica.es/en/
324
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8421954/Japanese-PM-admits-there-will-be-longterm-battle-to-stabilise-nuclear-plant.html
325
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/01/3179487.htm
326
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/01/fukushima-chernobyl-risks-radiation
327
http://www.hpa.org.uk/Topics/Radiation/UnderstandingRadiation/UnderstandingRadiationTopics/DoseCompar
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328
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2011-04-01/u-k-renewable-energy-incentives-attract-109megawatts-of-power-capacity.html
329
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/02/us-japan-quakeidUSTRE72A0SS20110402?WT.tsrc=Social%20Media&WT.z_smid=twtrreuters_%20com&WT.z_smid_dest=Twitter
330
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/03/science/03meltdown.html?_r=3&hp=&pagewanted=all
331
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD02Ak01.html
332
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/03/japanese-officials-nuclear-radiation-crisis
333
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201104020226.html
334
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c39b7bfe-5e22-11e0-b1d8-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IX8R7xNg
335
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/03/deepwater-horizon-bp-restarts-gulf-of-mexico-oilexploration?CMP=twt_fd
336
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-03/solar-nuclear-energy-to-reduce-saudi-oil-demand-officialsays.html
337
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0404/1224293734129.html
338
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/04/04/ubs-fukushima-is-worse-for-the-nuclear-industry-thanchernobyl/
339
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/04/world-bank-funding-coal-power
32
Triple Crunch Log
http://japanfocus.org/events/view/67
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/05/us-japanidUSTRE72A0SS20110405?WT.tsrc=Social%20Media&WT.z_smid=twtrreuters_%20com&WT.z_smid_dest=Twitter
342
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/world/asia/06nuclear.html?_r=1&src=tptw
343
http://edition.cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2011/04/05/lah.japan.tepco.offer.cnn&hpt=C1
344
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/217dc5b0-5efa-11e0-a2d7-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IXE57WBB
345
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/05/anti-nuclear-lobby-misled-world?CMP=twt_gu
346
http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn11_35/pn11_35.aspx
347
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f49caaac-5eef-11e0-a2d7-00144feab49a,s01=1.html#axzz1IXE57WBB
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b131420-5fb0-11e0-a718-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IXE57WBB
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc587b26-5f58-11e0-bd1b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IXE57WBB
350
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/06/tepco-nitrogen-fukushima-reactor-japan
351
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fc10dd0e-6060-11e0-abba-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1IXE57WBB
352
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2040722/feed-tariff-cuts-governments-solar-projectunfeasible?WT.rss_f=&WT.rss_a=Feedin+tariff+cuts+make+government%27s+own+solar+project+unfeasible&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_mediu
m=twitter
353
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/06/investment-clean-technology
354
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-05/solar-energy-costs-may-already-rival-coal-spurringinstallation-boom.html
355
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2041327/iea-fossil-fuel-subsidies-choking-renewables-growth?
356
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/04/06/us-energy-dept-shale-adds-40-to-global-gas-supplies/
357
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c39cf48a-607e-11e0-9fcb-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IXE57WBB
358
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13000695
359
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/08/bangkok-climate-talks-stall
360
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/association-of-german-utility-companies-calls-for-abolishingnuclear-power-by-2020/2011/04/08/AFfZF82C_story.html
361
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/08_20.html
362
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47ddd6e4-60eb-11e0-8899-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IooOzSDs
363
http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/04/08/fillon-la-production-de-petrole-%C2%AB-ne-peut-que-decroitre%C2%BB/
364
http://thegreenmiles.blogspot.com/2011/04/will-gop-shut-down-government-over.html
365
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93cf39dc-621a-11e0-8ee4-00144feab49a.html#axzz1J0hx0u6n
366
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/04/08/3186535.htm
340
341
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http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7767?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3
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368
http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201104080169.html
369
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/10/will-hutton-keynes-austerity-osborne
370
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d936551c-639d-11e0-bd7f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JCMJ4yWh
371
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/28c82b24-6474-11e0-a69a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JCMJ4yWh
372
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/11/banks-breathe-sigh-of-relief-vickers-report
373
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e30b860-64ae-11e0-a69a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JCMJ4yWh
374
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/rowenamason/100009970/is-chris-huhne-preparing-or-his-second-uturn-on-nuclear/
375
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/11/uk-netherlands-power-cable-britned
376
http://www.stumbleupon.com/su/4EKgHU/www.good.is/post/new-study-finds-solar-panel-installations-arecontagious/?utm_source=supr
377
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_05.html
378
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e30b860-64ae-11e0-a69a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JCMJ4yWh
379
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/12/japan-battle-fukushima-one-month
380
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/science/12nuclear.html?_r=1&src=tptw
381
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/fukushima-much-bigger-than-chernobyl-says-russian-nuclearactivist/story-e6frfku0-1226032383976#ixzz1IIu2eU00
382
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703518704576258280279913962.html
383
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110412065948.htm
384
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/568c2124-6527-11e0-b150-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JOf5Lhrh
385
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/apr/12/china-green-plans-america
386
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/13/deepwater-horizon-gulf-mexico-oil-spill?intcmp=122
387
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/apr/14/bp-pr-campaign-gulf-oil-spill?CMP=twt_fd
388
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1b6a364-6793-11e0-9138-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Jg8abYNQ
389
http://www.pvtech.org/news/fukushima_nuclear_crisis_adds_new_dimensions_to_pv_growth_potential_in_germ
390
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7801?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed
%3A+theoildrum+%28The+Oil+Drum%29
391
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c1915396-66c0-11e0-8d88-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JI1qt0jn
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/15/us-germany-nuclear-idUSTRE73E2I920110415
393
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2011-04-15/clean-energy-investment-fell-34-as-incentives-cut-ineurope-bnef-says.html
394
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/15/bp-control-science-gulf-oil-spill
395
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2011/04/900-papers-supporting-climate-scepticism-exxon-links
33
Triple Crunch Log
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013604576248881417246502.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/17/japan-nuclear-crisis-nine-months
398
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-17/oil-gas-companies-injected-toxic-chemicals-into-ground-u-sreport-shows.html
399
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/17/environment-green-laws-red-tape
400
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/17/will-hutton-banks-vickers-report
401
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-04-18/saudis-slash-oil-output-or-did-physics
402
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6c97342-69bd-11e0-826b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JrtJqkQf
403
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/apr/19/rbs-agm-oil-tar-sandscanada
404
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c2d0c68-69d7-11e0-89db-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Jr2wKmvQ
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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/us-nuclear-industry-idUKTRE73H0PR20110418
406
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3f06d564-69da-11e0-89db00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F3f06d5
64-69da-11e0-89db-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=#axzz1K9RK6jDQ
407
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2044373/munich-delivers-solar-insurance-cloudyday?WT.rss_f=&WT.rss_a=Munich+Re+delivers+solar+insurance+for+a+cloudy+day&utm_source=twitterfeed
&utm_medium=twitter
396
397
408
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703922504576273023015148798.html?mod=WSJ_Energy_le
ftHeadlines
409
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/28e6c444-6a50-11e0-a46400144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F28e6c4
44-6a50-11e0-a464-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=#axzz1JxLi7l6f
410
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/secret-memos-expose-link-between-oil-firms-and-invasionof-iraq-2269610.html
411
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-04-20/peak-oil-crisis-killing-recovery-0
412
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/19/us-italy-solar-idUSTRE73I2J220110419
413
http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2011/04/19/solar-companies-brand-uk-subsidy-review-illegal/
414
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-04-20/peak-oil-crisis-killing-recovery-0
415
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13135593
416
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/20/fossil-fuel-lobbying-shale-gas
417
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/italy-to-focus-on-renewable-energy-extend-halt-on-newnuclear-plants.html
418
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/20/radioactive-spills-breakdown-british-nuclearplants?CMP=twt_fd
419
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/20/chernobyl-radiation-risk-dose-density?CMP=twt_fd
420
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86644be6-6be0-11e0-b36e-00144feab49a.html#axzz1K9RK6jDQ
421
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/21/pennsylvania-ground-zero-shale-gas
422
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/21/china-shale-gas-well
423
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/21/study-finds-solar-panels-increase-homevalues/?partner=rss&emc=rss
424
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/solar-panel-makers-gain-as-fukushima-spurs-japan-s-antinuclear-movement.html
425
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/as-fukushima-bill-looms-nations-weigh-dilemma-nuclear-plantsviable-only-when-uninsured/2011/04/21/AFrwGDHE_story.html
426
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6bfae34-6ccc-11e0-83fe-00144feab49a.html#axzz1KGCt4DiH
427
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/22/water-the-next-arab-battle
428
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/22/activists-occupy-arctic-oil-rig
429
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/22/business-investors-campaigners-reject-green-tories
430
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/22/cameron-coalition-green-policies-one-year
431
http://techcrunch.com/2011/04/21/kiva-expands-micro-loans-to-green-businesses/
432
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brunitedstatescanadara/679.php?lb=brusc&pnt=679&nid=&id
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433
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/157453-battered-by-gas-prices-white-house-starts-attacks-onoil-companies?utm_campaign=E2Wire&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
434
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/24/seasonal-water-metering-con-study
435
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dee1818c-6f67-11e0-952c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Kc2gYkMn
436
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/25/barclays-faces-commodity-protests?CMP=twt_gu
437
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/26/cbi-green-energy-projects?CMP=twt_fd
438
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/26/masdar-city-desert-future
439
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-27/tokyo-water-radiation-falls-to-zero-for-first-time-sincecrisis.html
440
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/27/bp-plans-drill-gulf-mexico
441
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3201781.htm
442
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7447df7c-71c6-11e0-9adf-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Kq79DeKn
443
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c1bb90ce-71c0-11e0-9adf-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Kq79DeKn
444
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/business/energy-environment/29utility.html?_r=2&ref=business
445
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-28/total-to-begin-friendly-tender-for-up-to-60-of-sunpowershares.html
446
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/29/total-solar-power-renewables
447
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/29/goldman-sachs-villain-financial-crisis
34
Triple Crunch Log
448
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-energy-plan-sell-oil-reserves-profits-invest-124232376.html
35