Gapminder – population policies
In many developing countries (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) high fertility ratios and resulting large
youthful populations are putting pressure on resources and facilities. These consequences include
pressure on schooling and clinics, housing, food and water resources. Also leads to high
unemployment rates and fast increasing populations. In Niger, with a fertility rate of 7,4 (number of
children born per woman), this has lead to immense child mortality rates (deaths of 0-5), 274 per
1000, due to poor nutrition and health standards. You can see a comparison between Sweden and
Niger here: www.bit.ly/b95hzX - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Niger
These consequences have lead to governments across the globe realizing that it is of greatest
importance to limit birth rates in order to have a sound economic and environmental development
i.e. adopting anti-natalist population policies. The correlation between fertility rates and
income/economic development is very strong as can be seen in this chart. www.bit.ly/dcsJRD
There are numerous ways of limiting fertilities, some more voluntary than others. The most wellknown anti-natalist population policy is that of China, known as the One-Child policy, which is a very
rigid and strict policy, implemented in 1979. Or governments can choose a ”softer” option of limiting
fertility as in Bangladesh, measures such as family planning programmes, education, campaigns on
the use of contraceptives and more.
The Chinese One-Child policy is just what it sounds like, limiting the number of children per woman
to just one. This policy applies especially for the urban population and the Han (majority) population.
The incentives include cash bonuses, longer maternity leaves and preferential housing.
Mao Zedong’s early ideas on population was the exact opposite of today’s, he expressed that ”the
more people, the stronger we are” www.bit.ly/ddxecB (pull back time bar to 1940 and track it to
1967)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy
Mao’s pro-natalist population policy took a serious blow when the campaign “The Great Leap
Forward” 1958-1961(se poster below) failed and lead to an unintentional demographic disaster, both
seen in life expectancy and birth rates.
The policy was meant to industrialize the country and collectivize the Chinese agriculture e.g.
prohibited private farming. The failure resulted in disaster and supposedly meant that 20 million
Chinese lost their lives in a widespread famine. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
In the first chart you can see the change in life expectancy, which dropped almost by 20 years during
the campaign. Pull the time bar back to 1940, and see the dramatic changes that occurred during
those years. www.bit.ly/9xAs81 The change in fertility rates was almost as dramatic, due to the
famine. www.bit.ly/9Momjq
The total population of China is today over 1.3 billion people inhabiting 9.6 million km 2 (Sweden
approx. 450 000 km 2) with a population density of approximately 139 people per km2 (Sweden 20.7)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_populatio
n_density This is not an unusually high number, but the figure is misleading, just as with Sweden,
where 90 % of the population lives in the Southern half of the country.
There is a very large proportion of the Chinese population that lives along the East coast, the
major urban areas and the fertile river plains, which means that the population density in these
areas are between 300-400 inhabitants per km 2. The western areas of China contains mainly of
deserts and mountainous areas that are sparsely populated. (see map below)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China
This high population densities along the coasts meant that immense pressure was put on human and
natural resources, including the environment, hence the government decided to implement the
policy.
The first attempt to control the population was carried out during the 1970’s the “Late, long, few”campaign i.e. later marriages, longer intervals between births and fewer children. This voluntary
policy campaign by itself lead to dramatic changes in the number of children per Chinese woman. See
the chart again and see the dramatic drop in fertility that occurred during the 70’s, before the
implementation of the one-child policy. www.bit.ly/9Momjq
Even so the Chinese Communist Party came to the conclusion that this drop was not enough.
“At the time, China was home to a quarter of the world's people, who were occupying just 7 percent
of world's arable land. Two thirds of the population were under the age of 30 years, and the baby
boomers of the 1950s and 1960s were entering their reproductive years.”
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr051833
Iin 1979 they implemented the harsher and mandatory one-child policy and as can be seen in the
Gapminder chart the drop in fertility have continued to drop ever since, from 6.47 children/born per
woman in 1952, 1.77 children/born per woman in 2009. The policy aims at restricting the number of
children per Chinese couple to only one, and at the same time postponing marriages.
There are some objections to the general rule. The largest ethnic group, the (urban) Han population
is obliged to only have one child, while minority, ethnic groups and rural populations are allowed a
second child. The policy, being very strict, includes some rewards and penalties. The rewards include
for instance priority housing and other family benefits, while those who do not abide to the policy
will be penalized by losing any benefits and paying fines up 15 per cent of the family’s income.
It is claimed by the Government that the policy has hindered the birth of between 300 and 400
million Chinese. The current population is close to 1.4 billion people.
Benefits of the population policy
In it addition to the rapid drop in birth rates, there have also been other positive effects as a result
of the policy. These include social benefits such as better health care for women www.bit.ly/cKojY3 ,
family planning measures, free contraception for women www.bit.ly/bHJOSq
and better child survival rate. www.bit.ly/cdf2eu
Economic benefits such as increased savings rates and a rapid economic growth. The Chinese
government wanted to reap the economic benefits of the demographic dividend i.e. restricting the
birth rates while at the same time having a large working population. www.bit.ly/c17GEJ
(dependency ratio)
www.bit.ly/8XCOKO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy
Disadvantages of the population policy – film
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4OWJlyaHt0&feature=fvsr
However, the draconian one-child policy has been heavily criticized for some unwanted negative
consequences. There is a terrible gender imbalance in China, in the country as a whole there are
some 119 boys per 100 girls and in some rural areas 130 boys per 100 girls.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8451289.stm
http://www.worldbank.org.cn/english/content/gender-en.pdf
The reason for the skewed sex-ratio is a result of China’s son preference. With the introduction of
sonograms and cheap ultrasound machines in the 1980’s, sex determination tests have been
performed on a large scale resulting in the large gender imbalance. www.bit.ly/aMX4Va
www.bit.ly/dgz4JX - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8451289.stm
The Chinese Government has also proclaimed that it will carry on the policy, without any dramatic
alterations done to the policy.
http://geography.about.com/od/populationgeography/a/onechild.htm
With a few alterations in the policy,
The sex ratio (male : female live births) is 1.03 to 1.07 in industrialised countries. In China, this ratio
has increased from 1.06 in 1979, to 1.11 in 1988 and 1.17 in 2001, with even higher ratios in rural
areas. In rural areas, the sex ratio is 1.05 for the first birth and rises steeply subsequently. In urban
areas, the sex ratio is 1.13 for the first birth and peaks at 1.30 for the second birth showing that some
urban Chinese make the choice to perform sex selection with the first pregnancy, since they are
allowed only one child. In rural areas, most couples are permitted to have a second child, especially if
the first is female. So if the second (or subsequent) child is female, the pregnancy often "disappears",
allowing the couple to have another child in an attempt to have a son.
It is believed that sex-selective abortion and non-registrationa of female births account for the
increased sex ratio. Sex-selective abortion is illegal but is known to be widely carried out, helped by a
burgeoning private sector. Although female infanticide is probably very rare now, less aggressive
treatment of sick female infants does occur.
The Chinese government has acknowledged the social consequences of this gender imbalance with
possible increased mental health problems, socially disruptive behaviour among men, kidnapping
and trafficking of women for marriage and increased numbers of commercial sex workers. This may
have contributed to a rise in human immunodeficiency virus infection and other sexually transmitted
diseases.
The one-child policy is probably just one contributory factor in the skewing of the sex ratio in favour
of males. Female infanticide resulted in a high sex ratio in China in the 1930s and 1940s. Other Asian
countries with declining fertility rates and a traditional male preference also show comparable ratios
– Taiwan, 1.19; Singapore, 1.18; South Korea, 1.12, and north India, 1.20 – probably reflecting sexselective abortion. In China, the marked increase in the sex ratio between the 1980s and 1990s
coincided with much easier access to cheap ultrasonography. It is likely that, even in the absence of
the policy, sex-selective abortion would continue. The solution will come only with a change in
attitudes toward female offspring. Publicity campaigns promoting girls are now widespread and
acknowledge the importance of such change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China
http://search.creativecommons.org
Consequences of the one-child policy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4OWJlyaHt0