Interactive Notes: How were candidates chosen in the past? Timeline I. Announcement Evaluate chances of winning Exploratory Committees filing with the FEC Timeframe: 2012 election has started already. 2008 Election – Who were the Republican choices? Rudy Giuliani – Former mayor of New York City John McCain – US Senator - Arizona Ron Paul-Congressman-Texas Mike Huckabee – former Governor - Arkansas Mitt Romney – Massachusetts Governor Sam Brownback – US Senator - Kansas Duncan Hunter-Congressman-California Fred Thompson-former Senator-Tennessee Tom Tancredo-Congressmen-Colorado 2008 Election – Who will be our Democrat choices? • Hillary Rodham Clinton – US Senate – New York • Barack Obama – US Senate – Illinois • John Edwards – Former North Carolina Senator • Joe Biden – US Senate - Delaware • Bill Richardson – Governor of New Mexico • Dennis Kucinch-Congressman-Ohio • Mike Gravel-former US Senator-Alaska • Chris Dodd-US Senate-Connecticut 2012 For Democrats – It’s easy….. Barack Obama……………. Republicans – They still have to decide… and there are a lot of choices….. Michelle Bachman – US Rep from Minnesota Herman Cain Businessman, Politician & Media Thaddeus McCotter – US Rep from Michigan John Huntsman Former Gov of Utah & Ambassador To China Tom Miller – Career Flight Attendant Rick Perry – Current Governor of Texas Buddy Roemer – Former Gov of Louisiana Vern Wuensche Businessman Fred Karger – Political Consultant and Gay Rights Activist Mitt Romney – Former Gov from Mass. Newt Gingrich Former Speaker of the House Jimmy McMillan Andy Martin Ron Paul – US Rep from Texas Rick Santorum – Former US Senator from Penn. Gary Johnson Former Gov of New Mexico How is it done in Texas? National Convention State Convention County Convention Precinct Convention Primary (Election) II. Primaries – (Jan – June) of election year. • Candidate selection process by narrowing the field of candidates within a party. • States may use a primary, a caucus or some combination. States conduct federal elections because of FEDERALISM! What is the difference in a primary and a caucus? • Primary-election between 2 or more candidates of the same party • Caucus-town hall type meeting where party candidates are chosen 1968 Democratic National Convention • McGovern-Fraser Commission Photo from npr.org McGovern-Fraser Commission • Designed to make delegate selection process in the Democratic Party “open, timely, and representative.” • Major changes • Delegates chosen through primary or caucus open to all Democrats in state. • Delegates are not “winner-take-all.” (Not necessarily true for Republicans). • Delegates became more representative (i.e. more women and minorities). • Drawbacks? • Some argue newer candidates are less “electable.” • Less effective politicians (Jimmy Carter as the example). • Changed the drama of conventions • While McGovern-Fraser specifically dealt with Democratic party, most of the changes were later adopted by Republicans. Types of Primaries Open Primary Closed Primary Problems? Advantages? The increase in primaries The primary and caucus system • Key Events: • Iowa caucuses • New Hampshire Primary • Super Tuesday • Frontloading: holding primaries early to try to capture attention and $ for your state • Who are superdelegates? III. National Convention Purpose: -To nominate the presidential and vice presidential nominees for the party -To approve the party platform Facts: - Each party holds a separate convention towards the end of the summer Party Platforms 2008 Platform Activity – we’ll come back to this - the individual with the majority of delegate votes becomes the presidential nominee - the nominee now runs against the other party’s nominee IV. Campaign (Labor day – November) - Democrat v. Republican - Incumbents (advantage or disadvantage) ? V. General Election Election Day First Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even numbered years Next election – 2012 We will vote for many different offices at all levels of government. Australian Ballot Characteristics 1. 2. 3. 4. secret Uniform printed at government expense includes all candidates and issues Electing a President • Popular Vote - The vote of the people, this is important but will NOT determine who wins. • Voters have a choice of Republican and Democrat Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees. Electoral College Electoral vote - the vote that actually elects the President # of votes a state receives = House of Representatives + Senate= electors Winner Take All System Whoever wins the popular vote gets all 38 electoral votes. 38 Republican Electors 38 Democrat Electors Size of Electoral college 435 House of Representatives 100 Senators 3 Washington DC (23rd Amendment) _____ 538 Total # of electors # needed to become President Simple majority of 538 = 270 DANGER …. A candidate may win the popular vote, yet lose the election…. HOW? Popular Vote vs. Electoral Vote STATES POPULAR VOTE Florida 2,912,790 Bush 2,912,253 Gore Iowa 634,373 638,517 286,417 286,783 New Mexico Oregon Total Bush Gore Bush Gore 713,577 Bush 720,342 Gore 4,547,157 Bush 4,557,895 Gore ELECTORAL VOTE 25 7 5 7 Bush Gore 25 19 DANGER – Has it happened? • YES – it has…. • 1876 Tilden v. Hayes – Tilden had more popular votes. • 1888 Cleveland v. Harrison - Cleveland had more popular votes. • 2000 Gore v. Bush – Gore had more popular votes. What if no one receives a majority? House of Representatives will choose the new President – each state gets one vote. Senate will choose the new Vice President – each Senator has a vote. Red and Blue States Purple States Swing States Debating the E.C. Arguments against 1. Can win the popular vote and lose the election. 2. Certain states get ignored. 3. Biased towards small states, violates 1 person 1 vote. 4. Biased against third parties. 5. Faithless electors Arguments in favor 1. Imagine Florida in 2000, times 50. 2. Prevents candidates from running up votes in one area of the country. 3. Protects the power of the states in a federal system. Current Limits on Voting • Citizenship • Residence – varies by state (10-30 days) • Age – 18 yrs old • Registration • Mental Institution patients cannot vote • People convicted of felonies are not allowed to vote Understanding primaries • Most state parties felt primaries were easiest way to implement McGovern-Fraser provisions. • In 2004, 35 states had primaries and 15 had caucuses. • Primaries are elections between candidates of the same party, vying for a party’s nomination in the general election. • In Democratic presidential primaries, any candidate who gets 15% of the vote or more gets proportionate share of delegates per district. • Republicans in each state can choose proportional or winner-take-all. • Democratic Party v LaFollette(1982): mandatory primaries are unconstitutional • Open and Closed primaries