Basic Questions for Opportunity Determination 1. Are customers reachable? The reachability is the condition in which you can make contact with something or someone.. have access to something. Reachability requires good information from the customer in order to improve the customer satisfaction and to increase profitability. The location of Paintball Palace is really important to have a good reachability, it should be affordable for customers to be efficient ! Paintball Palace takes place in Pennsylvania center (in either Cumberland or Dauphin County) they said the ideal location for us would be at fives miles of Interstate 81 or the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Infact, in this way it would be easy to go there. Furthermore, this localization allows the most of suppliers to be on the spot by in a three-hour drive. This site may seem offset, but however it’s only at a half hour drive of several colleges like Penn State main campus and Penn State Mont Alto, Shippensburg, Dickinson, and others. Targeted customers : Hence in this case, Paintball Palace will focus on the students at these universities and people around because they are near, so in the best position to come there (Which gives an estimation of 49,420 potential customers). Now concerning the access to the product and programs, we can notice that Paintball Palace is able to offer a full retail line of paintball products (including paintball guns, goggles, clothing, add-ons/upgrades, and accessories) Besides, let’s note the prices are competitive but not really cheaper than renowned competitors, so in fact it’s affordable for a large class of customers but when we compare it doesn’t seem so attractive. Therefore, customers are reachable in this case, it’s less far than competitors but Paintball Palace need to be better especially in their prices and their communication to be more attractive. 2. Is the industry growing at more than 30% a year? The industry has been experiencing continued growth since the game’s inception in 1981. The number of participants has increased at an average compound rate of 90.2% and there is year on year growth in the different segments (13% increase in those that play once a year, 24.4% increase in those that play more than once, and a 78% increase in those that play 15+ times a year). This means that not only is there a continued growth in those that are playing the average number of times they are going is also increasing. 3. What is the time to break-even? Breakeven for 2005, 2006 and 2007 will be 41 weeks, 36 weeks and 31 weeks respectively. Here is the table with the projections which permit us to extract this conclusion: Year Total Fixed Costs 2005 2006 2007 769,517 767,189 773,926 Sales/visitor 55 55 55 Variable Costs/visitor 20 20 20 Breakeven in unique visits 21,986 21,920 22,112 Visitors/week 533 613 705 Breakeven in weeks 41 36 31 4. Is the market structure imperfect? Paintball Palace appears to have 5 competitors in the area. Their main edge is the fact that they plan on offering both indoor and outdoor areas of play, with an emphasis on the indoor during winter months. In fact they didn’t mention much about what they would offer in their outdoor woods-ball areas. They claim that they will have the best of both worlds but it appears that they are favoring the indoor air-ball paintball. The 5 competitors are Paintball Adventure Park, Next Level Paintball, Paintball Sports Land, Outlaw Paintball and Wanna Play Paintball. Paintball Adventure Park seems to be the largest competitor due to its large customer base, semi-professional owner and ability to expand. Out of all 5 places, 4 are outdoors only, which would indeed give Paintball Palace an edge in the cold months. The market structure here is slightly imperfect due to the fact that there is only 1 other indoor paintball park, which only offers one arena, while Paintball Palace offers 5. Additionally, there are only 5 total competitors within a very large geographic area meaning that if someone is going to play paintball in this area they will most likely be required to travel an hour or more. Since they are traveling so far in the first place they will most likely not mind traveling a bit further to go to a place that is significantly better. All of these places are offering the same basic product at relatively similar prices. To the novice player (which is their target market), the small details really wont matter cause they don’t really know what they are doing anyway. With that said, I believe that Paintball Palace has a decent change at competing with these other Paintball places although some of their Business Plan seems a bit unrealistic. 5. What market share could the new venture obtain after five years? Paintball Palace wants to become a real actor of the paint-ball industry in United States. The company aims to capture and maintain 10% of the market share. After five years if the assumptions are true, our market share will be steady. With the company development project and the grows of the paint-ball industry we can forecast that the market share of the company will be increase as it’s show on the appendix. Moreover, in order to follow this prediction, it’s important for the company to have a good communication strategy. For example Paintball Palace have to advertise in prominent magazine to develop a strong corporate image in this segment. 6. Is the ROI potential greater than 25%? Capital requirements: 470,000 Net incomes in 2005, 2006, and 2007 are respectively $102,967, $239,623, and $386,767. 2005: 22% 2006: 51% 2007: 82% This was a last minute fix, does not take into account the amount (50% the company wants to reinvest) nor is a capital structure provided 7. What are the capital requirements? Alex The capital requirements are 470,000 $ for the startup costs. Each of the four founders will invest $30,000 from their own resources. The other $350,000 in startup costs represents furniture, fixtures, and equipment that will be financed through National Paintball Supply, Bauer Compressors, and an unknown Astro-turf company. 8. What is the free cash flow potential? It is not clearly and directly indicated since the financial report (either income statement or statement of cash flow) is not available in the material, we can only make estimation. Based on assumption that the paintball business revenue is basically generated as cash (instead of receivables) and according to the case the purchases of expensive facility and equipment like Astro-Turf/artificial grass, prepackaged air-ball fields and air compressor are financed by the suppliers with a certain interest rate at zero or low down payment for 5 to 6 years paying period, which helps the company save the start up cash outflow. So the estimated free cash flow potential should be good. 9. What is the sales growth potential? The paintball company thinks to be able to capture 10% of the market in South Central Pennsylvania. It means about 4942 persons. We know from the Sporting Goods and Manufacturers Association International that the wholesales of paintball equipment are growing up each year from 1991. ($170 million in 1999, $195 million in 2000 and $225 in 2001). It means that the number of player is also growing up, and that the number of regular customer (more than 15 times per year) is becoming higher (increase of 78% from 2000 to 2001). But the number of persons who play once a year and more than once a year also increased a lot from 2001 in the same way that the number of unique visits For example, 3,1% of the total US population played painball at least once a year in 2002, a 13% increase from 2001. It means than there are a lot of new consumers on the market. The fact that people are becoming more and more familiar with the game, the changing in law and the decreasing wholesales equipment price will increase the growth of sales for the company. Also, the paintball is a new sport and so the number of participants will become bigger and bigger in the same way that the number of times that they will play. The fact that you can play indoors must increase the sales in the winter because it is a service that only few company provide. The regular customers will probably at the end of the winter be used to coming in this company that the other they used before. 10. What is the asset intensity? Paintball Palace's assets are divided in 4 main categories: Lease a 200,000 sq. ft. warehouse and surrounding, undeveloped, land at a price of $3/sq. ft. This lease is accounted for as $50,000 per month rent expense. (Looking for a one-year renewable lease, with a bargain purchase price after five years. Purchase approximately 180,000 sq. ft. of Astro-Turf/artificial grass. This will cost approximately $2.20/ sq. ft. installed and is included in our startup costs. This is to be financed at 8.75% for six years with zero down. Purchase and install 20 rolls of paintball-approved netting. This netting will be purchased from National Paintball Supply (NPS) at a cost of $300 a roll. In addition, we will be purchasing five prepackaged air-ball fields from NPS at a total cost of $25,000. (NPS has agreed to allow us to finance these fields for three years, at 8.5% with 10% down). Purchase and install an air compressor and related equipment at a cost of $20,000. (Seeking financing from Bauer Compressors for five years, at 7.5% return with 10% down payment). These 4 categories comprise the great investment in assets they have to make in order to make Paintball Palace a successful and profitable business. If these are not able to meet in the first run the business’ growth will not reach the expectations already stated as these are the key factors to differentiate from their competitors. 11. What are the gross margins? As a result of technological advances in the production of paintball equipment and paintballs, wholesale prices are on the decline. This will allow Paintball Palace to purchase paintball equipment for rentals and paintballs in large quantities at low prices. This obviously equates to lower prices and higher gross margins for Paintball Palace. Here are the gross margins synthesized: Paint Sales – 50% Field fees – 100% Our high gross margin on field fees is the result of having no direct variable cost associated with those fees. Besides, we have an additional business (sell shirts, hats, etc.) with an estimated average gross margin of 40%. However, since this is not our primary line of business, and we do not expect a significant amount of revenue from these items, we have not included them in our financial statements. We will also offer concessions in our own vending machines. These products will be sold at a 50% gross margin, and they are included in the Other Income section of our income statement. 12. What is the harvest potential? The estimate harvest potential of the structure equals 10% of a market composed with 49,420 potential participants. So, 4,942 people who will generate around 25,586 visits. These visits would at least generate $818,752 incomes only taking the equipment and the paint into account and for a player with his equipment buying the cheapest paint. Net incomes in 2005, 2006, and 2007 is respectively $102,967, $239,623, and $386,767. Paintball Palace is supposed to have positive net incomes in its first year of operation." 13. What are the competitive advantages? Quality: Well- trained referees High quality paint and equipment Changing field layouts Training Teach first time users how to properly load and shoot a gun Give advice to those seeking it Point out dangerous behaviors (if needed) Service: More opportunities to play (compared to competitors) o Four to five indoor fields operating at one time Limit downtime between games Keep customers satisfied o Indoor fields: two small air-ball fields and two large air-ball fields One with bleachers One “concept field” Designed like a street corner- several old cars, dumpsters, mailboxes, trashcans, etc. o Outdoor Fields: one small and one large air-ball field, and two to three woodsball fields. One woods-ball field: a village and a castle with a second floor o Layout change of the air-ball field: every other week o Layout change of the woods-ball field: every month Affordability Competitive pricing o Sponsorships to decrease cost of supplies Suppliers will receive free advertisement, reduced rate for play and use of facility for promotional events o Affordable yet aggressive against competitors $15 players can use facilities for the entire day and receive all of the propellant needed. $10 equipment rental fee $17 for 500 paintballs $30 for 500 paintballs (this must be a typo I think it would be 1000 balls) (see page 6) $50 for 2000 paintballs Summary Paintball Palace plans to decrease the overall cost to customers by introducing partnerships that will allow for benefits to both parties. The supplier will be able to use Paintball Palace’s facilities for corporate events, free advertisement and reduced rate of play. Additionally, Paintball Palace will keep the game interesting by changing the structure of both the indoor and outdoor fields. In order for Paintball Palace to be competitive they also offer; advice, well-trained referees, and high quality equipment. 14. What control over costs exists? Variable cost: purchase paint in bulk from National Paintball Supply at a price of $25 per case Fixed cost: The bargain purchase option at the end of the five-year term on the lease of land and warehouse. 15. What are the barriers to entry? Chris -High cost of real estate for such a large complex a. $50,000 per month lease with an option to buy after 5 years -Constructing the playing fields and barriers b. $396,000 for astro turf, paid over 6 years, financed at 8.75% with 0% down c. $6,000 for paintball approved netting d. $25,000 for NPD pre-packaged air-ball fields, paid over three years at 8.5% with 10% down e. $20,000 for air compression equipment, paid over 5 years at 7.5% with 10% down f. What about outdoor woods-ball fields? What about the indoor concept field that will look like a street corner? -Heat and electric prices for winter months -Purchasing large amounts of paint and always having enough on hand 16. Is the management team sufficient? Denise As a start-up company we believe it is not necessary to have too many people running the business. The costs of wages increase and the amount of work is not that much at the first stage of a start-up. As the business grows the company will require by itself more people to integrate the management team because of the increase its work. Therefore, we think that the management team is sufficient for the first stage of "Paintball Palace". It has the Management, Accounting and Information Technology areas which are the most important in a start-up company. It is important to mention that the management team has lack of experience as “real managers” in the business world as most of them have just received their Bachelor degree and one of them is about to receive it. This factor leads a level of uncertainty and risk when it comes to start and run a business, however we think that the minor experience they have got from their jobs will take them on the right path to manage this new start-up company. Nevertheless, in our opinion we will change the name of one of the areas stated in the case study, this is the Information Technology department. It will be best if this area changes its name to either Logistics or Operations, this as a result of not only the activities the person (Alicia McCool) will perform but also the task required by this type of business and industry. It is also important to take into account the experience and knowledge/abilities this person possesses. 17. What is the strategic differentiation? Paintball Palace offers a wide range of fields from air-ball to wood-ball style layouts. One of the main differentiators between Paintball Palace and its competitors is its offering of climate controlled indoor fields. These indoor fields can be used to capture customers from competitors that do not offer indoor play during the colder months and can also be instrumental in building a customer base during this time. Open Questions 1. Is this a good business opportunity? Why or why not? yes, market growth, competition, location all seem to be favourable. 2. What specific advice would you give the group about his business plan? become more professional, a great deal of trust is needed before someone gives you almost half a million dollars to play with. Also, even more important the plan is really dependant on a lower purchasing cost than competitors have, you must be able to show a binding agreement on this. 3. What improvements would you make in the group’s business plan? tailor it to the investor’s needs: I want to know how much you need, what I will get in return, how you will be able to pay me, when you will pay me and what you will pay me. Also I want to know how the business is financed. 4. Would you invest in Paintball Palace? No, see previous answers