The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Surveying the Digital Future:
The Impact of the Internet
Year Four:
Ten Years (1994-2004)/ Ten Trends
Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D.
Director, The Center for the Digital Future
at USC Annenberg
Microsoft
August 27, 2004
Redmond, WA
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Ten Years (1994-2004)/Ten Trends
 1994 the beginning of the popular
Internet (1969 beginning of ARPANET)
 AOL offered Internet access as a
additional feature of walled-garden
service
 Netscape browser first appeared
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Lost Research Opportunity
A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in 1948
could have found
– Where the time for television came from
– How it affected …
consumer behavior, connection to the civic process,
desire to travel, career goals and much else
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
We are undertaking the
study of the Internet that
should have been conducted
on television in the late
1940s
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons
United States
Singapore
Italy
Sweden
Japan
Taiwan
Great Britain
India
Iran
Australia
Bolivia
Hong Kong
Mainland China*
Macao
South Korea
Germany
Hungary
Spain
Chile
Argentina
Brazil
Philipines
Portugual
Africa about to join
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #1
The Digital Divide is closing
(but not yet closed)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Internet Use Continues to Grow




Household access over 60%
Hours per week at 12.5
Growth in hours/years of experience
Gap between new and experienced
users narrowing
 Gender and income gap narrowing
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Hours online from any location (Year to Year)
Average Hours of Total Internet Use per Week
14
12.5
12
10
11.0
9.4
9.8
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year of Study
Weihuaextra (W-1)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Number of hours online at any location by years of
experience
Average Hours of Total Internet Use per Week
20
17.1
18
16
14
12.1
12
10
8
8.5
7.2
6.3
6
4
2
0
< 1 Year
1 to LT 3 Years
3 to LT 5 Years
5 to LT 7 Years
7 Years or More
Years of Internet Experience
Weihuaextra (W-2)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Percent of Males and Females Who Use the Internet
Male
Female
80%
73.1%
67.8%
64.4%
63.6%
Percent of Respondents
60%
69.0%
67.7%
54.7%
55.0%
53.8%
50.4%
47.2%
46.2%
46.4%
41.7%
41.7%
37.8%
40%
34.0%
28.8%
25.1%
21.5%
20.3%
20%
27.2%
23.5%
15.1%
0%
Britain
Germany
Hungary
Stage 4 – Usenet x Gender (10-14-03)
Italy
Japan
Korea
Macao
Singapore
Spain
Sweden
Taiwan
USA
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How many hours per week do you use the Internet for…?
Experienced Users
New Users
25%
Percent Total Hours Online
22.3%
22.2%
20%
15%
11.4%
11.3%
10%
7.8%
7.2%
5%
3.3%
2.5%
0.7%
3.8%
2.7%
4.7%
3.2%
2.8%
2.5%
3.1%
2.7%
4.2%
3.0%
2.5%
0.7%
3.4%
0.9%
7.1%
4.2%
3.0%
0.2%
2.9%
In
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5.0%
7.0%
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ay
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G
am
es
0%
4.3%
1.3%
4.3%
6.3%
6.4%
5.5%
Categories of Internet Usage
Q710 (B-1)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend # 2
Broadband Changes
Everything
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How do you connect to the Internet? (Year to Year)
2000
2001
2002
2003
100%
88.1%
81.3%
Percent of Users
80%
74.8%
61.5%
60%
40%
24.2%
16.6%
20%
8.0%
11.5%
12.0%
3.9%
1.7%
.4%
0.6%
1.2%
3.7%
5.0%
0%
Telephone Modem
Q360 (P-1)
Cable Modem
Web TV
DSL
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Broadband Changes Everything
Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than between
non-user and dial-up
Dial-up is disruptive — broadband integrative
Broadband determines how often people log on, how long
they stay on, what they do online and where they log on
from
Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and overall
relationship to Internet
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Broadband vs. Dial-up
Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs. 10.6 for dialup
Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband 16-30+
Broadband users do more of everything except using
medical information and distance learning
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
The Future of Broadband
Most users expect to be on broadband
Broadband users leading effort in WiFi and networks
Broadband users spend more on all electronics and
also on on-line buying
Early broadband users are innovators across many
areas
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #3
Media use (especially
television) has shown
profound change
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Offline Media Use Continues to Change
 Television dispacement changing
 Newspaper and magazine use drops for
second year
 Book use declining slightly for first time
 Radio and home film watching remains
stable
 Age makes enormous difference
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Average Hours per Week Spent Watching Television:
Users vs. Non-Users
Users
Non-users
30
26.3
24.3
25
22.9
20.9
Number of Hours
20.2
20
18.7
18.3
20.4
18.1
17.5
23.0
16.2
15.9
15.5
14.5
15
13.0
15.6
14.1
12.9
11.8
15.5
10.2
10
5
0
Britain
Chile
(Santiago)
Germany
HTV x Usenet – 7 extra questions (10-22-03)
Hungary
Japan
Korea
Macao
Singapore
Sweden
Taiwan
USA
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure
time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE?
(Use)
User
Non-user
Average Number of Hours per Week
20
16.2
15
11.6
10
7.8
6.1
5.5
4.8
4.7
5
8.1
2.1
0.9
0.4
4.7
2.8
1.5
1.6
3.1
2.0
0.6
0
Reading books
Q690 (K-4)
Watching
movies in the
theater
Watching rented
Playing
Listening to
movies at home video/computer recorded music,
games
such as CDs,
tapes, MP3 files
Reading
new spapers
Reading
magazines
Listening to
radio
Watching
television
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure
time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE?
(Age)
Youth (< 18)
18-34
35-54
55+
Average Number of Hours per Week
20
15.3
15
11.9
9.9
10
6.5
5
3.7
4.2
7.9 8.6
7.7 7.4
6.7
5.0
4.5
3.0 2.7
2.3
0.9 0.6
0.4
0.9
1.8
7.6
5.4
4.2
3.1
1.9
10.9
1.7 2.0
0.7 0.8
2.8
2.1
1.5 1.9
3.1
0
Reading books Watching movies Watching rented
in the theater
movies at home
Q690 (K-5)
Playing
video/computer
games
Listening to
recorded music,
such as CDs,
tapes, MP3 files
Reading
newspapers
Reading
magazines
Listening to
radio
Watching
television
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Online Media making a Real Impact
 Online newspaper readership rising
 Magazine and radio use climbing
 Online books, telephone and television
use still very low
 Online game use very high, but drops
slightly in 4th year
 For young, some online media use
VERY high
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if
any, do you spend with the following activities online?
(Year to Year)
2001
Average Number of Minutes per Week
70
2002
2003
63.4
60
55.6
50.2
49.0
46.5
50
42.0
40.4
40
35.6
27.7
30
20.2
15.4 15.7
20
21.5
17.3
11.8
10.9
10
6.1
6.5 5.9
10.8
7.4
3.4
1.7
1.3
0
Reading books
Q700 (K-2)
Playing
computer
games
Listening to
recorded
music
Reading
new spapers
Reading
magazines
Listening to
radio
Talking on the
telephone
Watching
television
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure
time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?
(Age)
Youth (< 18)
18-34
35-54
55+
Average Number of Minutes per Week
150
129.0
125
106.0
100
75
60.0
57.0
50.0
50
46.0 45.8
37.5
35.5
18.7
25
11.4
6.2 5.4
22.0
29.0
19.1 19.8 15.8
11.3
2.0
36.8
29.3
5.5
3.8 0.8 1.6
13.1 11.3
17.9
12.7
7.2 8.1
3.6
0.6 1.1 1.4
0
Reading books
Q700 (K-4)
Watching
Movies
Playing
computer
games
Listening to
recorded music
Reading
newspapers
Reading
magazines
Listening to
radio
Talking on the
telephone
Watching
television
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #4
Internet is the most
important source of
information (for Internet
users)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Internet #1 Information Source
 First place people go to for information
 Broadband greatly accelerates this
process
 Want access to Internet everywhere
 Growth is in information, not
entertainment
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How important is the Internet as a source of information?
(Connection)
Telephone Modem
Broadband
50%
40%
Percent of Respondents
40.7%
39.0%
30.1%
27.4%
30%
23.9%
21.8%
20%
7.3%
10%
4.5%
3.9%
1.5%
0%
Not important
Q530a (P-1)
Somewhat important
Moderately important
Very important
Extremely important
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend # 5
Reliability and credibility of
media varies greatly
based on source and in
different countries
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Reliability and Credibility of Media
 Continuing to drop—a healthy trend
 Credibility high in much of the world
 Trust in information varies widely
depending on familiarity with the source
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall
do you think is reliable and accurate? (Year to Year) (Users)
2000
2001
2002
2003
80%
56.1%
60%
Percent of Users
52.1%
37.7% 36.3%
40%
39.9%
50.6%
48.8%
41.5%
20%
7.1%
5.7%
7.2% 8.3%
2.9% 1.9% 2.2%
1.3%
0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%
0%
None
Q160 (M-1)
Small Portion
About Half
Most
All
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Information on the Internet:
Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above)
None of it or Some of it
Most of it or All of it
80%
69.7%
Percent of Adult Users
59.7%
58.0%
60%
54.9%
54.0%
53.1%
47.3%
40%
36.0%
32.3%
26.4%
25.3%
18.5%
20%
18.3%
13.4%
17.6%
13.3%
7.2%
5.0%
7.1%
4.8%
0%
Britain
China
Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)
Germany
Hungary
Japan
Korea
Singapore
Spain
Sweden
USA
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Percent of Users Who Frequently
Visit Websites
How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites
that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate?
80%
70.2%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
18.7%
20%
10%
8.1%
0.0%
3.0%
0%
None of it
Q170 (M-2)
A small portion About half of it
of it
Most of it
All of it
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How reliable and accurate are:
News Pages posted by Established Media
70%
62.1%
Percent of Users
60%
50%
40%
30%
19.4%
20%
12.3%
10%
1.3%
5.0%
0%
None of it
Q173-1 (M-1)
A small
portion of it
About half of it
Most of it
All of it
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How reliable and accurate are:
Government Websites
56.5%
Percent of Users
60%
50%
40%
30%
18.3%
20%
10%
2.1%
17.0%
6.1%
0%
None of it
Q173-3 (M-1)
A small
portion of it
About half of
it
Most of it
All of it
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How reliable and accurate are:
Information Pages posted by Individuals
60%
51.8%
Percent of Users
50%
35.6%
40%
30%
20%
10%
8.1%
3.0%
1.4%
0%
None of it
Q173-2 (M-1)
A small portion About half of it
of it
Most of it
All of it
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #6
Online buying increasing
substantially and piracy
starting to decline
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
In an average year, how many times do you purchase
products or services over the Internet? (Adult purchasers)
Average Number of Annual Purchases
40
28.32
30
29.93
20
10.81
10
0
2001
2002
2003
Year of Study
Q780 (W-1)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Downloading “Free” Content
41% of new users use P2P such as
Kazaa
62% of experienced users use P2P
14% of Internet users have at least 100
free downloaded pieces of content
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Attitudes Toward Dowloading
94% of users believe taking a CD from a record
store is wrong in all instances
36% believe that “taking” the same content from
the Internet is wrong in all instances
Little change from 2000 through early 2003
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Change in 2003-4
For the first time there seems to be a
significant crack in the unwillingness to
pay for “any” digital content. The
arguments that artists deserve fair pay
or the costs of a record company never
carried any weight and still do not. What
seems to have changes is the available
of “fair” services (i-tunes) and
subpoenas.
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Differences between Music and Movies
Among those under 30, significant belief
that CDs are “over-priced” and that
unfair to buy entire CD for “one” song.
Same group feels DVDs (movies) are
fairly priced and you “get more than you
pay for” with extras.
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #7
Fears about privacy and
security are still extremely
high, but no longer are a
barrier to buying
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Privacy and Security Fears
 Overall still at very high levels
 Shift from extremely concerned to
somewhat concerned
 Users do not have to see their fears
disappear, buying in spite of fear
 Internet users buying earlier, less lag
time
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How concerned would you be about the security of your credit
card information when or if you ever bought something online?
(Experience)
Not at All Concerned
Somewhat Concerned
Very Concerned
Extremely Concerned
Percent of Respondents 18 and Over
60%
51.4%
50%
41.5%
39.5%
40%
39.0%
35.9%
30%
23.0%
19.5%
20%
10%
17.1%
16.5%
9.2%
5.1%
2.4%
0%
Non-users
Q830 (W-3)
New Users (<1 Year)
Very Experienced Users (7 or More Years)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How concerned would you be about the security of your credit
card information when or if you ever bought something online?
(Purchase Frequency)
Percent of Internet Purchasers 18 and Over
Not at All Concerned
Somewhat Concerned
Very Concerned
Extremely Concerned
80%
70.0%
70%
59.0%
60%
49.0%
50%
40%
30%
23.5%
16.6%
20%
11.3%
10.9%
14.6%
15.1%
10%
14.3%
7.1%
8.6%
0%
Online Purchase <2 times/month
Q830 (W-6)
Online Purchase 2-4 times/month
Online Purchase >4 times/month
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #8
You do not become a
“Geek” (or stay one)
when you go online
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Online world is not filled with Geeks and
Nerds
 You do not put your social life at risk
when you go online
 Users get 1 hour less sleep per week
and exercise a bit more
 Users spend same amount of time with
family and more time with friends
 Users less alienated, lonely and more
confident
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #9
Parents losing some of their
enthusiasm for the
Internet and more likely to
equate it with television
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Parents losing some of their enthusiasm
 Believe their children are at great risk
(but also that it is important to be online)
 More likely to feel children spend too
much time online and to punish by
denying Internet
 Less likely to believe that Internet will
help their children’s grades in school
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Percent of Adult Users with Children
in Household Who Have Access to Internet at Home
Does anyone under 18 in your household get punished by
being denied access to…?
TV
60%
Internet
56.2%
53.0%
49.3%
48.9%
45.1%
37.4%
40%
36.5%
32.1%
20%
0%
2000
Q1070 (W-3)
2001
2002
2003
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How important is the Internet for your schoolwork?
Would you say it is…
100%
Percent Of Respondents
80%
60%
40.1%
40%
34.8%
21.5%
20%
3.6%
0%
Not At All Important
Q1135 (E-1)
Somewhat Important
Very Important
Extremely Important
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
In your opinion, have the grades of those under 18 in your
household improved or declined since your household started
using the Internet?
Improved
Stayed the Same
Declined
Percent of Adults with Children
who Use Internet in Household
100%
76.0%
80%
79.8%
75.2%
60%
40%
22.2%
20.5%
15.9%
20%
3.6%
4.3%
2.5%
0%
2001
2002
2003
Children's Grades
Q1080 (W-1)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Trend #10
E-nuff Already
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Some Signs of a Slowdown
 Those who expect to go online dropping
 Some drop off the net (but most expect
to return)
 Suggestions of e-mail and information
overload: “E-nuff already.” No clear email etiquette
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How likely will you be to use the Internet within the next
year?
60%
Percent of Non-users
50%
44.3%
47.0%
41.4%
38.8%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000
Q610 (MW-2)
2001
2002
2003
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Do you think that you will ever go back to using the
Internet?
100%
Percent of Past Users
80%
73.7%
60%
40%
26.3%
20%
0%
Yes
Q620 (M-1)
No
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
How quickly should one reply to a personal e-mail
message? (Experience)
New Users (less than 1 year)
Very Experienced Users (7 years or more)
40%
33.7%
30.8%
Percent of Respondents
29.7%
30%
27.0%
18.9%
20%
14.7%
13.5%
11.8%
10%
5.4%
2.7% 3.1%
2.7% 2.3%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0% 0.4%
2.5%
0.0% 0.0%
0%
As Soon as
Possible
In One Day
In Tw o or
Three Days
In Four or
Five Days
Within a
Week
Within Tw o
Weeks
Within a
Month
Whenever
One Can Get
Around to It
It Is Not
Necessary
to Reply
Other
Time
Q263 (E-2)
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Overall, do you think that new communications technologies such as
the Internet, cell phones, and pagers have made the world a better
place, a worse place, or neither better nor worse? (Non-users)
2000
2001
2002
2003
60%
53.9%
Percent of Internet Non-users
49.3%
50.7%
50%
44.5%
40%
34.0%
31.6%
28.7%
30%
20%
36.8%
18.6%
16.7% 17.7% 17.4%
10%
0%
Worse place
Q180 (M-3)
Neither better nor Worse
Better place
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Overall, do you think that new communications technologies such as
the Internet, cell phones, and pagers have made the world a better
place, a worse place, or neither better nor worse? (Users)
2000
2001
2002
2003
66.0%
Percent of Internet Users
70%
65.6%
62.0%
56.4%
60%
50%
39.1%
40%
32.6%
26.6%
30%
28.4%
20%
10%
7.4%
5.4%
6.0%
4.5%
0%
Worse place
Q180 (M-2)
Neither better nor Worse
Better place
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Ten Internet Trends 1994-2004
 1. The Digital Divide is closing (but not yet
closed.
 2. Broadband changes everything
 3. Media use (especially television) has
shown profound change
 4. Internet is the most important source of
information (for Internet users)
 5. Reliability and credibility of media varies
greatly based on source and in different
countries
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
Ten Internet Trends 1994-2004
 6. Online buying increasing substantially and piracy
starting to decline
 7. Fears about privacy and security are still extremely
high, but no longer are a barrier to buying
 8. You do not become a “Geek” (or stay one) when
you go online
 9. Parents losing some of their enthusiasm for the
Internet and more likely to equate it with television
 10. E-nuff Already
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004
The Impact of the Internet--Year Four Report, 2004
Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project
USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future
CONTACT INFORMATION
Web:
Http:/digitalcenter.org
E-mail:
cole@digitalcenter.org
Phone:
(213) 437-4433
“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2004