Chapter 13 International Trade in Goods and Assets Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 13 Topics • A two-good model of a small open economy. • The benefits from trade, and the macroeconomic effects of a change in the terms of trade. • A two-period small open economy model: the current account. • Production, investment, and the current account. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-2 A two-good model of a small open economy • Production possibilities frontier. • Indifference curves of the representative consumer. • Illustrate equilibrium when there is not trade, and when the SOE is a price-taker on world markets. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-3 Figure 13.1 Production Possibilities Frontier for the SOE Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-4 Figure 13.2 Indifference Curves of the Representative Consumer in the SOE Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-5 Equation 13.1 In equilibrium the consumer maximizes when his or her marginal rate of substitution equals the relative price of the two goods. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-6 Equation 13.2 Optimal behavior by firms implies that the marginal rate of transformation is equal to the relative price of the two goods in equilibrium. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-7 Figure 13.3 Equilibrium in the SOE with No Trade Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-8 Equation 13.3 Representative consumer’s budget constraint when there is trade with the rest of the world: Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-9 Figure 13.4 Production and Consumption in the SOE with Trade Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-10 The Effects of Trade Welfare must increase for the SOE when trade opens up, no matter which good the SOE initially imports. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-11 Figure 13.5 An Increase in Welfare When Good a Is Imported Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-12 Figure 13.6 An Increase in Welfare When Good b Is Imported Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-13 An Increase in the terms of trade • Effects depend on which good is initially imported. • Income and substitution effects are an important element in analyzing the implications of a change in the terms of trade. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-14 Figure 13.7 An Increase in the Terms of Trade when Good a Is Initially Imported Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-15 Figure 13.8 An Increase in the Terms of Trade when Good b Is Initially Imported Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-16 A Two-Period Small Open Economy Model • Two periods – current period and future period. • Representative consumer with exogenous current-period and future-period incomes. • The SOE is a price-taker on world credit markets – the real interest rate is exogenous. • The current account surplus here is equal to savings in the SOE, as there is no investment. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-17 Equation 13.4 The representative consumer’s lifetime budget constraint: Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-18 Equation 13.5 The government’s intertemporal budget constraint: Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-19 Figure 13.9 The Two-Period Small Open-Economy Model Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-20 Figure 13.10 Deviations from Trend in the Current Account Surplus and GDP Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-21 Figure 13.11 Government Spending and Taxes Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-22 Figure 13.12 The Twin Deficits? Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-23 A Small Open Economy Model with Production and Investment • Works the same as the real intertemporal model, except the real interest rate is determined on world credit markets, and given to the SOE. • Current account surplus always adjusts so that the aggregate supply and aggregate demand curves intersect at the world real interest rate. Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-24 Figure 13.13 A Small Open-Economy Model with Production and Investment Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-25 Figure 13.14 An Increase in the World Real Interest Rate Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-26 Figure 13.15 A Temporary Increase in Government Spending Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-27 Figure 13.16 A Permanent Increase in Government Spending Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-28 Figure 13.17 An Increase in Current Total Factor Productivity Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-29 Figure 13.18 An Increase in Future Total Factor Productivity Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-30 Figure 13.19 Investment as a Percentage of GDP Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-31 Figure 13.20 An Increase in the Capital Stock Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 13-32